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Why you CANNOT spend a top 10 pick on a QB unless you are 100% SURE he is ELITE...

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  • Why you CANNOT spend a top 10 pick on a QB unless you are 100% SURE he is ELITE...

    And maybe not even then!

    Since 1998, a span of 10 drafts, there have been 16 QBs taken in the top 10 overall. I will say the jury is still out on 6 of them, all of the guys drafted in 2004 or later. Of the other 10, 6 can be considered busts (Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich). Of the remaining four, one is currently in jail. That means of those 10 top 10 QBs taken between 1998 and 2003, only 3 are currently legit starters in the league. This isn't baseball where .300 is considered a success. How can you invest the considerable amount of money and years of patience it takes to draft a QB in the top 10, knowing the success rate is at or under 40% (depending on whether you consider Michael Vick a success or not)?

    There have been 12 other QBs taken in the 1st round since 1998, bringing the total number of 1st round QBs to 28. Again, the jury is still out on 4 more of them, although Roethlisberger has stepped into the legit category. Chad Pennington falls somewhere in the middle ground between legitimate and illegitimate, and Daunte Culpepper was legit before his injury. However, 5 more can be added to the bust column (Cade McNown, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, and J.P. Losman).

    To recap the numbers:
    Top 10 QBs
    16 total
    6 awaiting judgment
    3 legit starters
    1 phenom in jail
    6 busts (60%+ failure rate)

    1st round QBs
    28 total
    10 awaiting judgment
    4 legit starters
    1 formerly legit starter
    1 average starter
    1 phenom in jail
    11 busts (61.1%+ failure rate)

    Now let's attack this argument from a different angle.

    There are 32 teams in the league. Four of those teams are starting Pro Bowl-caliber former 1st rounders. Nine are starting 1st rounders who I've left the jury out on, although that jury has almost reached a positive verdict on Eli Manning and a less-than-positive verdict on Alex Smith. Four teams have former 1st rounders, two of which I've labeled busts, competing for the starting job (McNair, Pennington, Harrington, and Grossman). Three teams are starting former 2nd rounders (Brees, Beck-reach, and Jackson-major reach). Three more teams are going with former 3rd rounders (Croyle, Schaub-who I compared to Brady coming out, and Edwards-who I had as a possible late 1st rounder last year). A whopping NINE teams are starting QBs who were 2nd day picks or undrafted entirely. I consider six of those nine to be at least solid starters, excluding Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna, and Jake Delhomme. Still, SIX solid NFL starting QBs taken in the 4th round or later.

    If I were in charge of an NFL team, even with a dire need at QB, I would not take a QB in the top 10 unless I was 100% sure that he is an elite prospect. I am sure there is NOT an elite QB prospect in this year's class. Matt Ryan is not an elite prospect. Brian Brohm is not. Neither is Joe Flacco, nor Chad Henne. There is no Peyton Manning. No Carson Palmer.

    Eli Manning, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell all had tools worthy of being picked in the top 10. Alex Smith did not... and we see where he is today. I thought I liked Philip Rivers more than anyone when he was coming out, as I had him slotted in the mid 1st when others still had him in the 2nd and even 3rd round. I was obviously wrong, because even I'm not sure I would have taken him in the top 10. Conversely, I was sold on Roethlisberger as a top 10 pick. Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler were right on the border and were drafted accordingly.

    Maybe I've strayed from the point a bit, but to reiterate, there is no elite QB prospect in this year's draft, and I would not ever spend a top 10 pick, top 10 money, and top 10 patience on a QB I was not 100% sure of. I would rather dedicate a 2nd day pick each year to find one or more of those hidden gems.

  • #2
    If you think you have a better chance at getting your starting QB in the 6th Round go right ahead, I'll stick with the good old fashioned formula...

    big props to BoneKrusher for the sig & avatar
    - For daily NFL draft coverage:
    www.twitter.com/ryanlownes

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    • #3
      I didn't say there were better odds, I'm saying there is significantly less setback if you miss.

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      • #4
        its not always the player, its also the coaches, you wont suffer as a severe setback in drafting a player BPA but if a QB is BPA then it makes sense, you can suffer a setback with any position if you select a player high, if a QB doesnt have players around him making plays then his stats are lower and it makes him seem more like a bust. While selecting any other player their stats dont show missed tackles, dropped catches, etc. QB is a much harder position so of course its going to be harder to get a franchise QB...

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        • #5
          Maybe so, but if I'm picking in the Top 10 and don't have a steady starter at QB, that probably means I need some help right now. Rather than try to take a flier on a late round guy and develop him, I'd go with the safer pick with more upside.

          Matt Ryan does not have JaMarcus Russell's upside for example, but Ryan should be able to play from Day One which alone makes him a 1st/2nd Round QB prospect. In addition, Ryan has no true flaws physcially. He's 6'4 3/4 228, is fairly athletic (he moves very well in the pocket), he has a strong arm, is very accurate and has a maturity about him that is beyond his years. As far as upside goes, he may not be that freak like Russell or Ryan Leaf, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Ryan is a very solid all around prospect and should be able to step in right away and help an NFL Franchise. I know it doesn't sound quite right, but one could make the argument that Matt Ryan is this year's draft's top prospect.

          big props to BoneKrusher for the sig & avatar
          - For daily NFL draft coverage:
          www.twitter.com/ryanlownes

          Comment


          • #6
            The problem is, while there is less setback, there also is less capability of finding a quality return. And in the NFL, the easiest way to building a consistently strong team is still through finding that QB. Yes, there are always hidden gems each and every year, some guys that never got the opportunity, and others that were in the wrong place, but the chances of finding a quality QB is still higher at the top of the draft than at the bottom for very understandable reasons. This isn't an argument for or againist Matt Ryan, although I think most know where I stand on that. This is an argument for drafting a franchise QB if you believe one exists.

            On Alex Smith - While he deserves some of the blame for this past year, he also was injured. His supporting cast was also bad, skillwise and offensively. His OC wasn't up to the task. Short of it is, I think the jury is still out on Alex. Now, next year, it's make or break time. But it's easy to forget that it was only a year ago where people felt that Alex Smith was rapidly improving and many thought he would have a breakout year.

            Comment


            • #7
              I think that the failure rate that you are talking about is about 90% after the secound round hence if you need a franchise caller you have better chances to hit it right in the firstand secound round and since QB is the most important position on the field if you want to build a winning team you got to start by this position so you have to draft QB early


              Life is hard then we die

              The only real wisdom is knowing you know nothing

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              • #8
                ive personally always believed you should totally confident in the QB you want to take anywhere in the draft.

                you cant just take a guy because hes there, that really doesnt work out

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by swordman View Post
                  I think that the failure rate that you are talking about is about 90% after the secound round hence if you need a franchise caller you have better chances to hit it right in the firstand secound round and since QB is the most important position on the field if you want to build a winning team you got to start by this position so you have to draft QB early
                  hes also talking about the setback that you could face by selecting early in the first, those players at the top of the draft are the highest caliber that year, the players that can dramatically affect your team, if you mess that pick up then you just lost a huge chance to better your team.

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                  • #10
                    I can kind of see what you are saying but...

                    At the time when Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Byron Leftwich (I chose the same group that you listed as busts) where coming out of college you could have predicted that none of them deserved to be 1st round picks?

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                    • #11
                      You may have a point, but every pick is a gamble no matter what position you are picking from. Sure the success ratios may not be great with the QB position, but what other choice do teams like the Falcons have. I can gurantee they aren't going anywhere with QB's Joey Harrington or Chris Redman, I don't care if they added Jerry Rice in his prime, it won't matter because they have no QB to get him the ball. Please just name one team who made it deep in the playoffs without a good QB lately. The fact is there are none. So what are you suggesting teams without a QB should do, wait till the late rounds to try and find that rare hidden gem and just keep repeating that process until they strike gold. No that would be dumb. I almost would rather take that gamble in the early rounds, because that gamble could really pay off huge if it is successful. Also you rarely ever will find any elite quarterbacks fall into free agency, so really your only option is through the draft.
                      Sig Size Restriction, see rules.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ThePudge View Post
                        Maybe so, but if I'm picking in the Top 10 and don't have a steady starter at QB, that probably means I need some help right now. Rather than try to take a flier on a late round guy and develop him, I'd go with the safer pick with more upside.

                        Matt Ryan does not have JaMarcus Russell's upside for example, but Ryan should be able to play from Day One which alone makes him a 1st/2nd Round QB prospect. In addition, Ryan has no true flaws physcially. He's 6'4 3/4 228, is fairly athletic (he moves very well in the pocket), he has a strong arm, is very accurate and has a maturity about him that is beyond his years. As far as upside goes, he may not be that freak like Russell or Ryan Leaf, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Ryan is a very solid all around prospect and should be able to step in right away and help an NFL Franchise. I know it doesn't sound quite right, but one could make the argument that Matt Ryan is this year's draft's top prospect.
                        I have nothing wrong with taking a QB in the top 10 if I'm 100% confident in him. A big part of what I'm saying is that I do not have that confidence in any of the QBs in this year's class. Therefor, it is my firm belief that any team that were to take one of the QBs in the top 10 this year will be making an over-investment at best and a big mistake that will cost that team millions of dollars and years of hope at worst.

                        I am also not saying if I have a major need, I'd still wait to address it in the later rounds. I just cannot over-draft a QB in the top 10 to address the need. 2nd round? Sure. Free Agency? Trade? If the right guy is available for the right price, of course. However, I would do my best by reserving a late pick each year for a QB project, to keep the depth on the team good enough to not be ever in dire need.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by toonsterwu View Post
                          The problem is, while there is less setback, there also is less capability of finding a quality return. And in the NFL, the easiest way to building a consistently strong team is still through finding that QB. Yes, there are always hidden gems each and every year, some guys that never got the opportunity, and others that were in the wrong place, but the chances of finding a quality QB is still higher at the top of the draft than at the bottom for very understandable reasons. This isn't an argument for or againist Matt Ryan, although I think most know where I stand on that. This is an argument for drafting a franchise QB if you believe one exists.

                          On Alex Smith - While he deserves some of the blame for this past year, he also was injured. His supporting cast was also bad, skillwise and offensively. His OC wasn't up to the task. Short of it is, I think the jury is still out on Alex. Now, next year, it's make or break time. But it's easy to forget that it was only a year ago where people felt that Alex Smith was rapidly improving and many thought he would have a breakout year.
                          I agree about Smith. 4 different OC's in all 4 years. His development has been severly mishandled.



                          Sig thanks to Bonekrusher

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                          • #14
                            Your logic is to say..lets not draft a QB until the 5th, 6th, 7th round for 5 years and one is bound to be the next Tom Brady.


                            Their are other elements that allow for a QB to become good; coaching, line, work ethic and desire etc.
                            my scent?...like making love to a lumberjack
                            <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
                            <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
                            <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
                            Originally posted by Hermstheman83
                            What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.

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                            • #15
                              Isnt the sucess rate of 2nd day picks even worse though?



                              Sig thanks to Bonekrusher

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