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  • Football factories not living up to the hype with its prospects?

    Another thread to drum up discussion.

    This is something that's reeeaaaally been on my mind. Namely big schools that are delivering big duds in terms of prospects.

    Maybe culprit numero uno is Southern Cal. Look at all the prospects from the school who don't do anything versus the ones who actually do. It's a bundle versus a handful, seems like. And I think it continues this year, I don't think Fred Davis works as well in the pros as he did his senior year in college. Sed Ellis will, Keith Rivers ... eh, probably does. Terrell Thomas? Lawrence Jackson?

    Another school - Oklahoma. What was the last prospect they delivered that actually lived up to their promise, nevermind didn't suck? Adrian Peterson who is amazing but we knew that since he graced their campus, and Tommie Harris in 2004 was probably the one before that. Wow, I hope I'm missing someone, because that's awful otherwise.

    Who was the last nameworthy Georgia Bulldogs player? Richard Seymour? Reggie Brown is playing in the league and all, but come on. Tim Jennings is doing alright with the Colts, I suppose.

    What's going on with these "football factories" producing disappointment after disappointment? Meanwhile some other schools like Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, and even Texas despite bad coaching (!) are churning out pros like they should. Thank goodness Nick Saban is back.

    Is Florida under Urban Meyer the next culprit? Another school you've got in mind? Are you like I am, especially leery of another Trojans player because of the great bust rate they've shown for themselves in prospects the last half-dozen years or so?

    Chime in.
    Last edited by Geo; 03-20-2008, 01:23 AM.
    Pugnacity, testosterone, truculence, and belligerence.

  • #2
    Originally posted by Geo View Post
    Texas despite bad coaching (!) is churning out pros like they should.
    I have heard several times that their players come into the league underdeveloped in comparison to their physical talents. Which makes sense because, and even my UT friends will agree, Mac Brown relies more on a player's abilities then bothering to coach them up.

    Personally, it seems like the only consistent football factory is Miami.

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    • #3
      I've been dissappointed lately with Tennessee's prospects. Hefney fell off the face of the earth, Eric Young has never impressed me as much as other people on this board, Erik Ainge isn't going to go high. We just haven't churned out as much pro talent lately, especially elite talents. (i.e. Manning, Henderson, Stallworth, Haynesworth)

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      • #4
        I bet if you polled one hundred Cowboys fans, a quarter would know that the best tight end in the league in Jason Witten played at Tennessee.
        Pugnacity, testosterone, truculence, and belligerence.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Geo View Post
          I bet if you polled one hundred Cowboys fans, a quarter would know that the best tight end in the league in Jason Witten played at Tennessee.
          Yea, we are definitely not known for producing NFL TE's, so I'm pretty excited to see what happens with Cottam and if some team gives Chris Brown a shot.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Geo View Post
            Another thread to drum up discussion.

            Another school - Oklahoma. What was the last prospect they delivered that actually lived up to their promise, nevermind didn't suck? Adrian Peterson who is amazing but we knew that since he graced their campus, and Tommie Harris in 2004 was probably the one before that. Wow, I hope I'm missing someone, because that's awful otherwise.
            Jamaal Brown. Who are these prospects who've sucked from Oklahoma recently?

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            • #7
              Geo-Regardless of USC's past history, you simply cannot, given the inexact nature of draft evaluation, use your own opinions (I'm talking about your assessment of the currently draft eligible USC prospects) to objectively make the assessment you're making about the school as a "faux" football factory...

              The past is the past, but the future cannot be projected in such an absolute way.
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              • #8
                Well, let's look at the first round picks from those schools since 2002, and see who's got the biggest bust ratio. I'll throw out the 07 class, because some players haven't gotten a chance to start.

                USC
                Busts: Kenichi Udeze 04 (I know he has leukemia, but that didn't make ernie davis any less of a wasted pick.), Mike Williams 05, Reggie Bush 06, Matt Leinart 06,
                Not: Carson Palmer 03, Troy Polamalu 03, Mike Patterson 05,
                Bust Ratio: 57%

                OU
                Bust: Andre Woolfork 03
                Not: Roy Williams 02, Tommie Harris 04, Jamaal Brown 05, Mark Clayton 05, Davin Joseph 06,
                Bust Ratio: 17%

                UGA
                Bust: Jonathon Sullivan 03, David Pollack 05
                Not: Charles Grant 02, George Foster 03, Ben Watson 04, Thomas Davis 05,
                Bust Ratio: 33%

                OSU
                Bust: Michael Jenkins 04, Bobby Carpenter 06,
                Not: Will Smith 04, Chris Gamble 04, AJ Hawk 06, Donte Whitner 06, Santonio Holmes 06, Nick Mangold 06
                Bust Ratio: 25%

                LSU
                Bust: Michael Clayton 04 (I know he got 1,100 yards as a rookie, but he fell off harder than Ang Lee's career post hulk),
                Not: Marcus Spears 05, Joseph Addai 06
                Bust ratio: 33%

                UMich
                Bust: Chris Perry 04,
                Not: Braylon Edwards 05, Marlin Jackson 05
                Bust Ratio: 33%

                UT
                Bust: Marcus Tubbs 04, Cedric Benson 05
                Not: Mike Williams 02, Quentin Jammer 02, Roy E. Williams 04, Derrick Johnson 05, Vince Young 06, Michael Huff 06,
                Bust Ratio: 25%

                UF
                Bust: Rex Grossman 03,
                Not: Lito Sheppard 02,
                Bust Ratio: 25%

                UMia
                Bust: Phillip Buchanon 02, Mike Rumph 02, Jerome McDougle 03, William Joseph 03
                Not: Bryant McKinnie 02, Jeremy Shockey 02, Ed Reed 02, Andre Johnson 03, Willis McGahee 03, Sean Taylor 04, Kellen Winslow 04, Jon Vilma 04, DJ Williams 04, Vernon Carey 04, Vince Wilfork 04, Antrell Rolle 05, Kelly Jennings 06
                Bust Ratio: 24%

                USC and Florida are higher than the rest, Florida is more due to their infitesimal sample size (The same as Oregon State, but OSU 1st rounders were all hits, truly THE OSU). Both Florida and USC had subpar coaching for a stretch. As a testament to Carroll's recruiting acumen, 2003 coincides with the senior year of Carroll's first recruiting class, it produced 2 pro bowl first rounders. The previous 5 years produced only two first rounders, both of whom were busts.

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                The Destroyer Is Manifest!
                I reserve the rights to retract any posts made betwen midnight and 5 AM PST due to being really, really drunk

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                • #9
                  the U's list looks very scary.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                    USC
                    Busts: Kenichi Udeze 04 (I know he has leukemia, but that didn't make ernie davis any less of a wasted pick.), Mike Williams 05, Reggie Bush 06, Matt Leinart 06,
                    Not: Carson Palmer 03, Troy Polamalu 03, Mike Patterson 05,
                    Bust Ratio: 57%
                    You can't call any player who has only been in the league for 2 years either a bust or not.

                    Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                    UGA
                    Bust: Jonathon Sullivan 03, David Pollack 05
                    Not: Charles Grant 02, George Foster 03, Ben Watson 04, Thomas Davis 05,
                    Bust Ratio: 33%
                    You can't call David Pollack a bust for getting injured. Besides that, how can you not consider George Foster a bust?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by BrentN View Post
                      I have heard several times that their players come into the league underdeveloped in comparison to their physical talents. Which makes sense because, and even my UT friends will agree, Mac Brown relies more on a player's abilities then bothering to coach them up.

                      Personally, it seems like the only consistent football factory is Miami.
                      I agree whole heartedly.
                      I have been one of the biggest Mack Brown critics that's also a Longhorn fan.
                      Hate the way he recruits, hate the fact that his loyalty gets in the way of being a football coach sometimes, and I also hate that the talent he has
                      never seems to develop.

                      They get 5 stars on 5 stars, and most of them don't get to see
                      the field until they're jr's, or unless they're really needed. I guess
                      that's why the only play that has left as a junior before this year
                      was Vince Young.

                      With all that being said, they're still churning out pro's like
                      it's no one's business. I guess from a GM's standpoint it's a good thing
                      that their players usually take a year or two to really develop
                      as pro's, seeing as they can take them later on in the draft.

                      I still like the players The U puts out. Seems like every year
                      they're still putting out first round talents. Can't help but think
                      how they don't win a lot more than they do with the players
                      that they have..

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                      • #12
                        I don't think it's fair to call Pollack a bust since he was hurt. But the last few years there hasn't been a lot of big time prospects for UGA, but that should change in the next few years. Matthew Stafford, Knowshon Moreno, Trinton Sturdivant, Rashard Jones, Geno Atikns, and Asher Allen and a few more have 1st round potential.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by schmiddog View Post
                          Geo-Regardless of USC's past history, you simply cannot, given the inexact nature of draft evaluation, use your own opinions (I'm talking about your assessment of the currently draft eligible USC prospects) to objectively make the assessment you're making about the school as a "faux" football factory...

                          The past is the past, but the future cannot be projected in such an absolute way.
                          I think Carroll running such a loose ship though is relevant though, some of the talent he's bringing in isn't developing enough of a work ethic. In a similar vein, the size they've recruited at receiver, helps them succeed in the college game but is negated in the pros and points out their lack of speed and quickness, and stresses the need of a work ethic to produce.

                          Obviously, not every player from Southern Cal comes to the league without enough of a work ethic of their own, there are guys who definitely do. Some prospects just aren't factors when they are playing an NFL team, rather than this week's group drubbing of Oregon State. But there are definitely guys who deliver on the playing field and on the practice field, guys like Mike Patterson, Lofa Tatupu, and so on.

                          I'm not saying I expect all guys from Southern Cal to fail. Still, some guys I would be cautious with, especially after seeing what happened before with the school's prospects at the particular positions.
                          Pugnacity, testosterone, truculence, and belligerence.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                            Well, let's look at the first round picks from those schools since 2002, and see who's got the biggest bust ratio. I'll throw out the 07 class, because some players haven't gotten a chance to start.

                            USC
                            Busts: Kenichi Udeze 04 (I know he has leukemia, but that didn't make ernie davis any less of a wasted pick.), Mike Williams 05, Reggie Bush 06, Matt Leinart 06,
                            Not: Carson Palmer 03, Troy Polamalu 03, Mike Patterson 05,
                            Bust Ratio: 57%

                            OU
                            Bust: Andre Woolfork 03
                            Not: Roy Williams 02, Tommie Harris 04, Jamaal Brown 05, Mark Clayton 05, Davin Joseph 06,
                            Bust Ratio: 17%

                            UGA
                            Bust: Jonathon Sullivan 03, David Pollack 05
                            Not: Charles Grant 02, George Foster 03, Ben Watson 04, Thomas Davis 05,
                            Bust Ratio: 33%

                            OSU
                            Bust: Michael Jenkins 04, Bobby Carpenter 06,
                            Not: Will Smith 04, Chris Gamble 04, AJ Hawk 06, Donte Whitner 06, Santonio Holmes 06, Nick Mangold 06
                            Bust Ratio: 25%

                            LSU
                            Bust: Michael Clayton 04 (I know he got 1,100 yards as a rookie, but he fell off harder than Ang Lee's career post hulk),
                            Not: Marcus Spears 05, Joseph Addai 06
                            Bust ratio: 33%

                            UMich
                            Bust: Chris Perry 04,
                            Not: Braylon Edwards 05, Marlin Jackson 05
                            Bust Ratio: 33%

                            UT
                            Bust: Marcus Tubbs 04, Cedric Benson 05
                            Not: Mike Williams 02, Quentin Jammer 02, Roy E. Williams 04, Derrick Johnson 05, Vince Young 06, Michael Huff 06,
                            Bust Ratio: 25%

                            UF
                            Bust: Rex Grossman 03,
                            Not: Lito Sheppard 02,
                            Bust Ratio: 25%

                            UMia
                            Bust: Phillip Buchanon 02, Mike Rumph 02, Jerome McDougle 03, William Joseph 03
                            Not: Bryant McKinnie 02, Jeremy Shockey 02, Ed Reed 02, Andre Johnson 03, Willis McGahee 03, Sean Taylor 04, Kellen Winslow 04, Jon Vilma 04, DJ Williams 04, Vernon Carey 04, Vince Wilfork 04, Antrell Rolle 05, Kelly Jennings 06
                            Bust Ratio: 24%

                            USC and Florida are higher than the rest, Florida is more due to their infitesimal sample size (The same as Oregon State, but OSU 1st rounders were all hits, truly THE OSU). Both Florida and USC had subpar coaching for a stretch. As a testament to Carroll's recruiting acumen, 2003 coincides with the senior year of Carroll's first recruiting class, it produced 2 pro bowl first rounders. The previous 5 years produced only two first rounders, both of whom were busts.

                            Give me a break, how is Leinart a bust? He was actually pretty damn good as a rookie. So because he got injured he is now a bust?

                            And David Pollack doesn't count as a bust either. Having your neck broken is an unfortunate incident and in no way a reason to call him a bust.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by DragonFireKai View Post
                              LSU
                              Bust: Michael Clayton 04 (I know he got 1,100 yards as a rookie, but he fell off harder than Ang Lee's career post hulk),
                              Not: Marcus Spears 05, Joseph Addai 06
                              Bust ratio: 33%
                              yeah, winning an academy award for brokeback mountain was nothing special...

                              ps. some would consider antrel rolle a bust or at least not living up to expectations.
                              Last edited by soybean; 03-20-2008, 11:55 AM.

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