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My Take on the #1 Pick

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  • My Take on the #1 Pick

    WARNING: LONG POST! :)

    Look as this logic everyone and see if you either agree and just see the angle I am coming from.

    These past two days from the Owners' Meeting have answered almost all questions for the #1 pick, IMO. Today, Sparano really cleared things up. At least for me anyway. He denounced just about every prospect except Vernon Gholston and Chris Long.

    McFadden is out: Sparano mentioned today how he would like to get Lorenzo Booker on the field more and find more plays to utilize him as a player. He mentioned that he feels confident that Ronnie will be back in time and ready for camp. He also said that having to find carries for Ricky and Ronnie both this season is a good problem to have.

    Glenn Dorsey is out: Well they finally did it! The FO has announced that we will be running a full-fledged 3-4 this season on defense. If that alone doesn't exclude Dorsey from our plans. This probably does: Sparano named the likely starters for next season as Roth at DE, Ferguson at NT, and Holiday at the other End. He also mentioned that new FA pickup Randy Starks has the ability to play all positions on that line and will be the primary backup for all three. Not to mention our up and coming youngsters Rodrique Wright and Paul Soliai. So whichever position, E or NT you were thinking Dorsey might fit at, he won't, at least not for us anyway!

    Matt Ryan is out: This is what I feel really good about, as a big John Beck Supporter. Sparano has talked in length the past two days about how impressed he is with Beck as a worker and the progression he is making as a player. He also mentioned how he sees him as a part of the Future nucleus of this team along with Ronnie and Teddy Ginn. Just to add to it, he mentioned that having a young QB in the league getting ready to start is something very hard to do. Beck has SOME experience in the NFL, Ryan has NONE. From that perspective, Ryan will have to go through more of a progression when he enters the league. There are not many young QB's that come in and are ready to contribute right away. This will not be any different for Mr. Ryan. It just seems to me that they are already having to do this with Beck, why would they want to take another young QB at #1 and have to do this with him as well. It seems like this FO wants to win sooner rather than later and Beck gives them the slight edge in that department, IMO.

    Jake Long is out: It has been talked about on here that Ireland does not believe in drafting based on need early on in the draft. OT seems to be our biggest need in this draft, and if Ireland goes based on BPA, Jake is certainly not that, especially because he will never be an ELITE Left Tackle in the NFL based on the perspective of many NFL draft experts. And if he is a RT for sure, then the value is certainly not there with the #1 overall pick. I don't know of many NFL Teams who would put the ultimate premium of the #1 pick in the draft on a Right Tackle. (Unless we had a Lefty QB, of course. But we don't!) All of this speculation alone should put the Jake Long to Miami supporters to rest. But that was before Sparano dropped the "bombshell" today that Vernon Carey will remain out starting LEFT TACKLE next season. The common fan would look at this and not think much of it. Not us. Not the same Miami Dolphins that are fluttering helplessly day in and day out for answers, any slight hints as to what we will do with the all important Number One overall pick. Well, Sparano gave it today! Sort of. It won't be Jake Long at least. If Carey is our for sure LT heading into next season, no questions asked, then Jake Long would be our RT, if drafted #1. And that my friends, simply wil not happen. Especially when our New VP of football operations, Mr. Bill Parcells does not put a premium on drafting OT's early on in the draft. ESPECIALLY RIGHT TACKLES! Most of time, his philosophy is that you can find quality ones later on in the draft that can help out significantly, and that is certainly the case with a RT, as there are some very quality ones in the 2nd-4th round range this year. Guys such as Gosder Cherilus, Sam Baker, Carl Nicks, Anthony Collins, King Dunlap, Duane Brown, Barry Richardson, etc. are all ones that come to mind as very possible, cheaper solutions at RT. And trust me, the "Big Tuna" knows this, which is why he won't waste the #1 pick on Jake Long, who could be better than all of those guys at RT, maybe or maybe not, but certainly not at the price of what the # 1 pick will garner. Like it or not, it's the truth!

    Now it comes to to the other Long, Chris, and The Hul....I mean Vernon Gholston. My logic says that if Jason Taylor is not dealt at all, Vernon Gholston is the pick for sure. The reason being, at the risk of contradicting myself and my previous argument against Ryan, is the immediate impact standpoint. With JT as one of the greatest mentors of all time at the same position, it could help Gholston to learn the nuances of the position early on. He may have to sit for the first few games, or be a situational pass rusher to start the season off. Most people would cringe at this idea. But my reasoning is that, in time, and with the right coaching or leadership, Gholston WILL be a better Pro than Chris Long. That is a HUGE IF though. He has all the potential in the world and I see him as having a Joey Porter-like impact on the league, from Joey's dominant days in Pittsburgh. The comparison stems from Porter's below average coverage abilities for the majority of his career, and his superior pass rushing abilities. I see the same attributes for Gholston and how his career will pan out. Funny I mention Porter though because that is who Gholston would likely replace at OLB later into the season if he was the pick. Let's get one thing straight, our #1 pick will contribute early and often, he will not be brought in to sit on the bench, not for long anyway. That being the case, VG would likely finish out the season opposite JT at OLB, with Porter switching roles with VG as the situational pass rusher (If you ask me, that's what he is better suited for anyway at this point of his career), or possibly Porter even kicking inside to finish out the season. Many of you cringe at this idea as well, but for as bad as Porter is in coverage or how bad of a fit many of you think he would be at ILB, I have a hard time believing he won't be better there than Reggie Torbor, Charlie Anderson, or even his possible inside mate Channing Crowder. As well, it would give Pasqualoni a better 2nd option than than he had in Dallas with Akin Ayodele, who Porter is certainly better than as well. This scenario would allow us to get our Biggest, most physically dominant LB's on the field at one time and could give us possibly the best Defensive, pass rushing Front in the league. We would not have a starting LB under 245 pounds; Possible Lineup and weights: OLB Vernon Gholston: 266 lbs, ILB Joey Porter: 250 lbs, ILB Channing Crowder: 245 lbs, OLB: Jason Taylor: 255 lbs.... And that's just how Parcells likes it!

    Now, if we do trade Jason Taylor, my focus turns dramatically, as I feel Chris Long would be the pick almost certainly. This is because we will need a guy who is NFL-ready, we will need the guy who is the most complete player right now and who is ready to step in Day One as our starting OLB to replace the departed Taylor. That player would be Chris Long. Chris Long will be ready to play Week One, Gholston most likely will not, simple as that. Leadership is also a main cause for concern with the #1 pick. This is certainly the case for us, especially if JT is dealt. One of the main things that a team will look for with a high draft pick, especially #1 overall, is the ability for that player to take control of his team and be the face of the franchise for the next 10 years or so. And for a team such as ourselves, in the same offseason where we would be losing our two only team leaders and faces of our franchise for the last decade in Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, this factor would become all that much more important and vital to our team. Chris Long would be the face of our franchise for a long time, I have no doubt about that. He is THAT player and would help ease the loss of JT and ZT in a big way, which is why he is my favorite to be the pick in this scenario. Vernon Gholston could also very well be the pick in this scenario as well, but Long is the favorite here, as is VG in the other.

    For the last time, it will be either Chris Long or Vernon Gholston on April 26th, if we keep the #1 pick. So take your pick!

    Mine is Gholston. But you already knew that I'm sure.
    Last edited by thebow305; 04-02-2008, 02:08 AM.

    Dolphins Dream Draft: 1. Jaylon Smith 2. Artie Burns 3. Landon Turner

  • #2
    that's good analysis...but I still think it's all up in the air...

    Comment


    • #3
      Of course, anything said this time of year, especially at the owner meetings, should be taken with a grain of salt.

      If one were to take to heart the comments that Lane Kiffin made yesterday, McFadden isn't even a remote possibility for Oakland.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Paranoidmoonduck View Post
        If one were to take to heart the comments that Lane Kiffin made yesterday, McFadden isn't even a remote possibility for Oakland.
        ORLY? What did he say?
        The whole world loves neophyte athletic tight end Jimmy Graham from Miami with the 95th pick. "Best pick in the draft,'' one AFC coach told me. "Give him time, and in that offense, he'll be better than [Jeremy] Shockey by the start of next year.''

        “We know that no matter the adversity, be it the lockout, be it the suspension or be it a hurricane, our men will pull together and defend the honor of this city. We’ve shown we’ve been able to do that.” - Jabari Greer

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Flyboy View Post
          ORLY? What did he say?
          He was asked about the mock drafts that have McFadden going to Oakland, and said that he didn't consider runningback a need, then spoke at length of how pleased he was with Oakland's runningback depth.

          He also hinted that defensive line is at the very top of Oakland list, whether they manage to trade down or not. He also expected that this year's draft room will be run much like last year's, which should suggest that Kiffin should have as much or more say that anyone else there (Al included).

          An interesting tidbit that Kiffin also noted: Rob Ryan apparently thinks that Tommy Kelly is the best 3-technique in the NFL.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Paranoidmoonduck View Post
            Of course, anything said this time of year, especially at the owner meetings, should be taken with a grain of salt.

            Very true.. It's just my thoughts though on the subject. And BTW, just in case anyone was wondering why this is here. I put it in the Phins Team Forum as well, but I wanted to get some feedback on this from all sides of the NFL and everyone here at the Countdown. Everyone, not just the Phins Fans.

            Dolphins Dream Draft: 1. Jaylon Smith 2. Artie Burns 3. Landon Turner

            Comment


            • #7
              Good post.

              However, the first problem is it would be a huge mistake to believe anything a coach, G.M., scout, owner, etc. says this time of the year. Everyone has an agenda.

              And why isn't Jake Long the best player available at #1? Sure he isn't Joe Thomas but there isn't anyone in this draft who is on the same level as a prospect as he was, with the possible exception of McFadden. In my opinion Jake Long is the clear #2 player in this draft and I think there is a big drop-off after him and McFadden.
              Scott Wright, President
              Draft Countdown.com
              www.draftcountdown.com

              Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

              Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
              www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Scott Wright View Post
                Good post.

                However, the first problem is it would be a huge mistake to believe anything a coach, G.M., scout, owner, etc. says this time of the year. Everyone has an agenda.

                And why isn't Jake Long the best player available at #1? Sure he isn't Joe Thomas but there isn't anyone in this draft who is on the same level as a prospect as he was, with the possible exception of McFadden. In my opinion Jake Long is the clear #2 player in this draft and I think there is a big drop-off after him and McFadden.
                So you don't think that Chris Long is at the same level as Jake as a prospect? I think you would be in the minority in that assumption as there are tons of other experts that have him rated #1 this year. And I also think Gholston's potential TRUMPS Jake Longs. My case and point for both being the favorites over Jake, besides the fact he would be a RT for us, apparently as of right now.

                Dolphins Dream Draft: 1. Jaylon Smith 2. Artie Burns 3. Landon Turner

                Comment


                • #9
                  Jake Long will never be an elite left tackle ... because of draft/football "experts?" The only experts I'd listen to are my scouts and my coaches, personally.

                  As for comparison to Joe Thomas, I've got Jake Long absolutely equal to Thomas. I always have, it's funny how a superb rookie year by Thomas has retroactively enhanced how he was/is viewed as a draft prospect. He had just as many concerns, meanwhile we're additionally penalizing Long as being more of a right tackle because he played right tackle his first two years at Michigan. He handled the left side exceptionally well the last two years, transitioning to a zone-blocking scheme.

                  Does that mean Long will perform as well as a rookie/pro as Thomas did? Not necessarily, but we're judging them as prospects.
                  Pugnacity, testosterone, truculence, and belligerence.

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                  • #10
                    I'm not nearly the draftniks you guys are, but I think Gholston will be the pick. He can play multiple positions, he's fast.. he is a gamechanger on defense and that's the kind of person Parcells will want, I think.

                    I don't see them taking Jake Long first overall, even though I think he is a better prospect than you do, thebow.

                    Originally posted by fenikz
                    His soft D really turns me off
                    ** RIP themaninblack. You will be missed. **

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                    • #11
                      I don't think Jake Long is ever going to be Jon Ogden or Walter Jones, but then against Chris Long is never going to be Lawrence Taylor or Dwight Freeney either.

                      There is a lot less guess work with Jake Long and I don't see any way he is not going to be at least a very, very good starting tackle in the NFL, regardless of which side it is on. Can you honestly say that about Chris Long?

                      I don't want to knock Chris because I think he's a heck of a football player and my Top 5 overall players in this draft, but I think Jake is easily the superior prospect in my book.
                      Scott Wright, President
                      Draft Countdown.com
                      www.draftcountdown.com

                      Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

                      Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
                      www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Scott Wright View Post
                        I don't think Jake Long is ever going to be Jon Ogden or Walter Jones, but then against Chris Long is never going to be Lawrence Taylor or Dwight Freeney either.

                        There is a lot less guess work with Jake Long and I don't see any way he is not going to be at least a very, very good starting tackle in the NFL, regardless of which side it is on. Can you honestly say that about Chris Long?

                        I don't want to knock Chris because I think he's a heck of a football player and my Top 5 overall players in this draft, but I think Jake is easily the superior prospect in my book.
                        To answer your question about Chris: I don't see any real scenario where he is not at least a very good, solid starting OLB/DE for whichever team he ends up with. I see him as the absolute safest pick in this year's draft and the proverbial "Can't Miss" player.

                        Maybe he will never be Elite, but maybe he will.

                        Gholston could be though. He could certainly end up as a Lawrence Taylor-like impact player for the team that picks him. He is the ultimate high-risk/high-reward, boom-or-bust player in this year's draft for sure. It just depends on whether Parcells thinks he will be worth it in the end.

                        Scott, I haven't heard you talk in depth, pertaining to Gholston as the #1 pick to Miami. I would like to get your opinion on it. And your thoughts about my insight into it.

                        Dolphins Dream Draft: 1. Jaylon Smith 2. Artie Burns 3. Landon Turner

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                        • #13
                          Personally, I've never really gotten the perception that Gholston is somehow a better fit to stand up and play linebacker than Chris Long.

                          Long got way more time at Virginia playing upright that Gholston did at Ohio State, takes better angles to the football, and showed much more ability against the run (something that should indicate his ability to work through traffic and make an impact outside the hashmarks). To top it all off, Long posted better agility numbers across the board than Gholston, and looked markedly better in linebacker drills.

                          Perhaps someone thinks they could turn Gholston into an outside 'backer, but to suggest that he's as suited for the move as, say, DeMarcus Ware was coming out of Troy looks flat out false to me.

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                          • #14
                            Any time you are projecting a player to a position he hasn't played before it's a risky proposition. That alone makes Chris a riskier prospect than Jake.

                            As far as Gholston to Miami, I don't believe he is really in the picture, at least at #1. He and Chris Long are similar players and they prefer Long. Now if they moved down Gholston could be a consideration.

                            Oh, and one more thing...

                            Pop Quiz:

                            How many 3-4 outside linebackers have gone in the Top 5 overall in the last five years?

                            Answer: Zero.

                            In, fact, only one has gone in the Top 10 overall in that same time span (Terrell Suggs, #10 in 2003)
                            Last edited by Scott Wright; 04-02-2008, 02:59 AM.
                            Scott Wright, President
                            Draft Countdown.com
                            www.draftcountdown.com

                            Twitter: twitter.com/DraftCountdown

                            Draft Countdown Podcast, Every Tuesday at 8 PM EST
                            www.blogtalkradio.com/draftcountdown and on iTunes

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Miami are just having fun at the moment with the public statements. Their tactical situation is that they don't want anyone to have a clue whom they are planning to take. That way, they don't rule out any potential trades. Trying to analyse what they say is a total waste of time.

                              I agree that they should take Jake Long. He's safe, the money isn't totally out of whack, and the position is definitely a need. Carey could possibly start at LT, but he's just as suited, if not more so, to RT. I hope they don't, since I want JL for the Falcons, but I'm not overly optimistic.

                              Incidentally, Scott, since when was there a big gap between Dorsey and JL as prospects? If you're taking into account the injury rumours, fine, but given that we don't have the medical reports, and Dorsey never missed a game, that seems a little foolish. Dorsey, ignoring the injury rumours, is the closest to an elite prospect that this draft has.

                              What really stands out about Dorsey is that he has elite tools, elite performance on film, AND elite character; most of all, he compares favourably to any DT prospect in the past five years. You can't make the respective claim for any other player in this draft.
                              TD 2011 catch-phrase: "explosive"

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