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What Am I Missing Here?

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  • What Am I Missing Here?

    Okay, so you've got a back. He's built exactly the same as guys like LT and Shaun Alexander (5'11 220). He was one of the most productive backs in California prep history. Last year, he turned in one of the best seasons ever as an NCAA runner. He ran a 4.45 at the combine. He can catch. His running style - fluid, compact, no wasted motion, no dancing - is perfect for the NFL. To my knowledge, there aren't any character concerns or major injury flags, either.

    So, why isn't Ryan Mathews a top ten prospect?

    Mike Will & V-Jax

  • #2
    Because since 2000 RB has been one of the deepest positions annually in the draft.

    There will be undrafted guys who make practice squads who are capable of running for 1100 yards.
    The value just isn't there, unless the prospect has Bo Jackson athletic ability, and even then some teams wouldn't take him.


    • #3
      WAC runners don't get any respect. That's about it.


      • #4

        plus what FunBuncher said.


        • #5
          RB value goes down lately, I guess.


          • #6
            The only guys that are really ranked ahead of him are 2 players that are seen a gamebreakers (Spiller, Best). The guy still is going to be a 1st rounder.

            Originally posted by Scott Wright
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            Touch Fuzzy, Get Dizzy


            • #7
              1. This draft is very strong so very good players are getting pushed back.

              2. RB's don't carry the same value as they used to. Very few teams rely on one guy to carry the load. Also its a very deep RB class and the feeling is teams can get a high quality back later.

              3. One Year Wonder.

              But don't worry. Mathews is the second best back in the draft and will be the second RB off the board. His stock is continuing to rise and I think we could see him go anywhere from New England at #22 to Detroit at #34. In a weaker draft he probably could have been a top 15-20 prospect and probably would have been one this year if he had more consistent production over his career.


              • #8
                The NFL has changed is the main reason.

                It is a passing league so the ability to catch out of the backfield has fallen secondary to the ability to line up out of the backfield. It is all about matchups and a RB who can play WR is more dangerous.

                Check the top RB prospects for the last few years. McFadden, Bush, Johnson and Felix Jones are all that type of back. Guys like Wells fall to the end of the 1st and that is the type you describe from a big program. This year the top 2 are both as much WR as they are running back in how they are built and athletically.

                Game has changed away from the power back to the speed back also. Top rushers last year weren't the run you over type. Even the guys like Peterson, Jones-Drew and Rice are speed backs to a degree.

                There is another major reason. RB depth the last few drafts. There are so few teams with a need at RB right now which helps to drive up the value of RBs and guys like Benson, Williams, Jones and Grant last year are just showing you can pick up backs for very little and have success, the value is going on the OL players instead.

                I don't expect this to change until defenses start to shut down the spread and it's workings. The league is getting closer and closer to a team that runs it full time as their offense and you already have many teams that are implementing it and when you go with a matchup based offense, you place higher value on RBs who can create matchups that are favourable. So the ability to completely change position like Bush, Spiller and co create. The guy who can run, block or catch in the backfield just isn't as valuable now.

                Props to BK on the sig!


                • #9
                  I know what you're missing, you're missing the major injury flags. If he wasn't so injury prone, he would be a top 20 pick. MAJOR durability concerns.

                  And he isn't a one year wonder btw Tackle, had he been healthy all 3 years in college, he would've ran for 1000 yards all 3 years.


                  • #10
                    C.J Spiller and Jahvid Best both have MAJOR durability concerns.

                    Sig by: BK

                    02:40 *** Chucky quit #nfldraftcountdown
                    02:40 <vidae> yay, hes gone
                    02:40 *** Chucky joined #nfldraftcountdown
                    02:40 <vidae> aww hes back
                    Originally posted by fenikz
                    we all hate you


                    • #11
                      I don't know if it's me but I think the main reason that RB's value is going down is that with the introduction of this 2 back system idea, the durability of each RB goes up. Everyone I can think of is pretty set at the RB position, from the worst team to best team. When it comes to drafting RBs now days its a "rich get richer situation"


                      • #12
                        It takes a lot to be a top 10 overall prospect if you are a back these days, the league isn't what it used to be even a few years ago. Backs taken in the top 10 in the last 4 years are D-Mac, AD, and Bush. The year before that (2005) saw Ronnie Brown, Benson, and Caddy all go top 5. Prior to that you need to go back to LT in 2001 and Jamal Lewis/Thomas Jones in 2000 to find backs that were top 10 picks.

                        Matthews is a good looking prospect, but the fact of the matter is that the running back position is not quite what it used to be as far as draft value is concerned. Also I think most would agree that Matthews simply is not the prospect that those guys were when you look at physical talent, production, level of competition, consistency, skill set, and durablility.

                        Also, LT was the only back from a non BCS conference taken in the top 10 the past decade. Marshall Faulk was the last before him. He finished his TCU career with 5,263 yards and capped it off with 2,158 yards and 22 TD's as a senior. He won all sorts of awards in college, etched his name in the record books, and proved he could play against the best when he won senior bowl MVP.

                        Matthews is no slouch when it comes to production and put up great numbers in Indy, but I don't know if he is a top 15 prospect when you look at the talent in this draft that can be found at positions that tend to carry more draft value.
                        Last edited by Don Vito; 03-11-2010, 01:21 AM.


                        • #13
                          Because he spells "Mathews" with only one T. If he had that double T, he'd be top ten for sure.


                          • #14
                            you said it yourself he ran a 4.45 at the combine

                            that's not good enough for top 10. Adrian Peterson ran in the 4.3's
                            my shoes hurt

                            Why Me? The Bob Lamonta Story


                            • #15
                              Does anybody think San Diego drafts this guy if Spiller is off the board?

                              Sick Sig by the BONEKRUSHER

                              Originally posted by Raheem Morris
                              Stats are for losers, so you keep looking at stats and we'll keep looking at wins.



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