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Thanksgiving Quickie - Not that kind!

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  • Thanksgiving Quickie - Not that kind!

    Thanksgiving 1 round update. See, I can do, uh, quick (relatively). Made some guesses for this weekendís games and just went with the order based on record after that (although same record, I adjusted for how I felt). Didn't feel like doing more as I was just making guesses on W-L this weekend. Maybe do a longer one early next week. Trades = yes.

    1. Miami Dolphins

    So, maybe Iím not as crazy as I may sound. I know no one else has this as an option in any mocks, but a recent Fialkov Q&A has me thinking that I may not need to go on meds. At the end of the day, Ronnie Brownís recovery is 9-12 months. Darren McFadden is the best talent in this draft, and a top run game is the best way to give Beck a chance. If Brown is healthy, thatís a nice 2-headed monster, and they can contemplate a Brown deal after the season when there would be 2 years remaining, which would still give Ronnie some intriguing value potential from a length of time perspective. I still donít see a trade for this pick that I buy, although Oakland within striking distance at 3 is food for thought. They can add DL in the 2nd round, where the talent is still likely solid, and the value/fit would both be better.

    Miami Dolphins pick: RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas

    2. New England Patriots f/ San Francisco 49ers

    Well, McFadden being off takes an option away, and I donít see anyone right now that would make a team jump this high. The nod, in the end, goes to Chris Long as a potential ultimate hybrid for them. Hereís a guy that could line up as a 3-4 DE, perhaps slide inside in some 4-3 fronts as well as stay on end in 4-3 fronts, and can perhaps do a bit of dropping back work. Belichick certainly knows Al Groh. I think their best bet at a trade will come with a team that falls in love with someone, even if the player they fall in love with might not be a huge need (by this, I mean it could be a semi-surprise that no one is anticipating).

    New England Patriots pick: DL Chris Long, Virginia

    3. Oakland Raiders

    A myriad of possibilities could be available here, but at the end of the day, I make a pick. While OT is tempting, I just think they may wait on that and opt for defensive line impact here with Dorsey.

    Oakland Raiders pick: DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU

    4. New York Jets

    I think they would love to trade down. But the only way I see a team jumping up is if they get desperate for someone here that they really feel St. Louis would nab Ö and Iím not sure who that is. All the OTís are intriguing, and while I really like some, I donít see any team going gung ho for it here. Thus, I make a pick, and the belief here is that Vernon Gholston would be the best option here.

    New York Jets pick: OLB/DE Vernon Gholston, the Ohio State

    5. St. Louis Rams

    Itís probably a tad high for a Derrick Harvey here, and I donít see Ellis with a Carriker/Ryan interior combo. Thus, the look is to the OL, which needs help. I think theyíd keep the pick to get the OT they wanted, unless they really thought they could deal down and still nab him. Iím a tad wary of Jeff Otah, more due to weight, as I see images of Mike Williams and Leonard Davis. That said, his stock is rising, and more often than not, OTís that are rising at this point wonít fall dramatically (unless something big comes up), and could keep rising. Spin it back to the UVA game Ė Otah did a damn good job against one of the best, if not the best, end tandems in college. He could start inside if Pace/Barron start as the OTís, and eventually replace Pace. Heís a potential LT option, but would work fine on the right side.

    St. Louis Rams pick: OT Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh

    6. Cincinnati Bengals

    My first projected trade goes here, as 7-11 lines up all as possibilities to nab a QB, and I think someone makes the move up to get their guy. My nod goes to Minnesota, as they have an extra pick and QB is clearly their big, absolutely huge glaring question mark barring a late season Tavaris Jackson surge to change minds. I think the Bengals would be open-minded to adding assets to revamp things.

    Projected Trade:

    Minnesota gets the 6th overall
    Cincinnati gets the 8th overall and Minnesotaís own 3rd this year

    All three QBís are graded closely, but I think Ryan is more ready than Woodson and has better upside than Brohm and might get the nod.

    Minnesota Vikings pick: QB Matt Ryan, Boston College

    7. Atlanta Falcons

    Atlanta needs a QB, and at this point, while I think Brohm is high here, they probably wouldnít mind. Yes, OT has good value Ö but QB is of higher importance.

    Atlanta Falcons pick: QB Brian Brohm, Louisville

    8. Cincinnati Bengals f/ Minnesota Vikings

    So, who gets the nod here? It should be defense and it could be anywhere, ranging from S to LB, to DL. I wonder if someone like James Laurinaitis might be too tempting for them to say no to. Local product, a need at LB. Not sure who would get MIKE (Iíd place Laurinaitis at WILL and give Ahmad mike).

    Cincinnati Bengals pick: LB James Laurinaitis, the Ohio State

    9. Carolina Panthers

    Revamping should occur here. The question is if they decide to find QB of the future later with the idea that Delhomme could buy some time, or do they go now. Without knowing who the new leadership would be, I lean for the latter and go with Andreí Woodson.

    Carolina Panthers pick: QB Andreí Woodson, Kentucky

    10. Chicago Bears

    The QBís are gone, but that might actually make Angelo happier. OL help is needed. While I have Clady as the higher grade, the nod here goes to Jake Long as the more Angelo type gamble. Could see us dealing back.

    Chicago Bears pick: OT Jake Long, Michigan

    11. Baltimore Ravens

    QB value is off, which may make the fan base happier. Is there a trade? Not sold, as KCís likely gunning OL, with CB as a backup plan, and I donít see who jumps here. Making a pick, and the nod goes to Malcolm Jenkins with news of Samariís epilepsy and the lack of development of their young corners.

    Baltimore Ravens pick: CB Malcolm Jenkins, the Ohio State

    12. Kansas City Chiefs

    They need OL, and Ryan Clady is, IMO, a value steal, and the potential LT that they need to protect one Brodie Croyle.

    Kansas City Chiefs pick: OT Ryan Clady, Boise State

    13. Philadelphia Eagles

    If it falls this way, I think theyíd be extremely happy and nab Kenny Phillips as the top young safety they need. CB can be added later.

    Philadelphia Eagles pick: S Kenny Phillips, the U

    14. Buffalo Bills

    Is a 3-tech an absolutely pressing need? Probably not. But Sedrick Ellis may be too tempting to pass here. Offensive needs can be addressed later.

    Buffalo Bills pick: DT Sedrick Ellis, Southern California

    15. New Orleans Saints

    Theyíve been up and down my mock all year. Maybe placing them in the middle is the end result. Anyhow, a lot of possible areas of focus. RT can be dealt with later. What here? Defense is the lean, either DB or LB. Iíll lean CB here, and go with Aqib Talib.

    New Orleans Saints pick: CB Aqib Talib, Kansas

    16. Detroit Lions

    Another team thatís been up and down. What now? OL is a strong consideration. LB and CB seem to be thoughts. This is borderline no manís land in some respects. I think the athletic Chris Williams may surprise some. Any trade ups to jump Houston? Donít see it, and think Chris Williams may be enticing enough.

    Detroit Lions pick: OT Chris Williams, Vanderbilt

    17. Houston Texans

    There are some defensive needs, but Iím hard pressed to see them pass on offensive concerns, particularly with no 2nd rounder. OT is an intriguing thought, but a top young runner is needed. Maybe they pass again, but Iím thinking they come around to it if they make a pick. I decide to go the trade route, though, as Houston would probably desire to add assets

    Projected Trade:

    Dallas gets the 17th overall
    Houston gets the 22nd overall (from Cleveland) and Dallasí 3rd and 4th this year (or a 3rd this year and a 3rd or 4th next year to balance it out)

    Desean Jackson might be intriguing. Yes, itís not a huge, pressing issue, but it could be intriguing enough to get them to jump, considering they have another first.

    Dallas Cowboys pick: WR Desean Jackson, California

    18. Washington Redskins

    WR, CB, OL, DE seem like the areas of focus. What here? OL seems unlikely as they actually have a 2nd and 3rd to address needs. Desean is off, and I donít see the other WRís fitting as options here. Mike Jenkins, Calais Campbell, and Derrick Harvey are the thoughts, and Iíll give the slight U lean.

    Washington Redskins pick: DE Calais Campbell, the U

    19. Denver Broncos

    LB/S/OL seem like the options. What here? Erin Henderson has been a nod a few times, and he gets the nod again.

    Denver Broncos pick: LB Erin Henderson, Maryland

    20. Arizona Cardinals

    So whatís up for the Cardinals? OL is a passing thought. Young runner seems like a later focus. Defense could use some pieces, perhaps at CB or an edge player here. Giving Derrick Harvey the nod, although wary of the choice.

    Arizona Cardinals pick: DE/OLB Derrick Harvey, Florida

    21. San Diego Chargers

    Theyíd probably love to deal down since they lack 2nd and 3rd rounders. Is there a trade? I donít see it. Thus, Iím making a pick this go around. A lot depends on whoís coaching, although a playoff berth might buy Norv another shot. Nod goes to Marchondray Moore as a potential 3-4 DL pick. Iíve long thought he could make the climb, and Iím growing a bit more confident that he might be moving, despite the lack of commentary on it. I could see San Diego deal a future pick to land a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

    San Diego Chargers pick: DL Dreí Moore, Maryland

    22. Houston Texans f/ Cleveland Browns via Dallas Cowboys

    After dealing down, I still believe that they will come around to addressing offense early. Nod goes to Rashard Mendenhall, who slips a bit on account of position, and the lack of teams that have a glaring need at RB in the mid-first.

    Houston Texans pick: RB Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
    23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    A lot of possibilities. Defensively, the DT value is gone, so the top consideration for me for now would be LB, as I think CB can be addressed later. WR is the main offensive thought here, although OL roams as a possibility. Iím not sold they bring Cato June back, and Iím not sold that Quincy Black is intriguing enough to prevent a pick like Keith Rivers here.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick: LB Keith Rivers, Southern California

    24. Seattle Seahawks

    Iím thinking RB/OL here, and the nod goes to perhaps a mild surprise, as Iím not too high on him. But the nod goes to Steve Slaton, who might operate better in the spread attack that the offense seems comfortable in right now a bit better than, say, a Jonathan Stewart.

    Seattle Seahawks pick: RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia

    25. Tennessee Titans

    Whatís the pick here? I think it should be WR. Just not sold if it will be. If I did go WR, Iíd go Kelly. Just not sold. The nod instead goes to edge threat Chris Ellis.

    Tennessee Titans pick: DE Chris Ellis, Virginia Tech

    26. Pittsburgh Steelers

    Iím thinking WR/OL/LB/CB. Was originally leaning towards OL here, but after further contemplation, I back away. Looking WR/CB primarily. Doucet/Kelly or Mike Jenkins? Nod goes Jenkins here on account of value.

    Pittsburgh Steelers pick: CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida

    27. New York Giants

    A lot of scenarios running, with LB, CB at the top, and perhaps a WR on the other side. The explosive Geno Hayes could be a thought if he comes out (and he could also go higher).

    New York Giants pick: LB Geno Hayes, Florida State

    28. Jacksonville Jaguars

    WR is a thought Ö again. DE is a thought as well. QB? On the border. OL? Wouldnít rule it out. Nod goes WR, though.

    Jacksonville Jaguars pick: WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma

    29. San Francisco 49ers f/ Indianapolis Colts

    The first thought that passed my head here was Ö is there any team that might want to jump potentially Dallas and GB for a CB? I think SF would be amenable to moving down. I come up with

    Projected Trade:

    Philadelphia Eagles get the 29th overall
    San Francisco 49ers get the Eagles 2nd and 4th this year, with a 3rd in 2009

    I look at Philly, and the OL talent in this range would make it better for them to go with their own. WR is a thought, but honestly, the WR talent in the 2nd/3rd isnít going to be that far off. TE is a thought. Defensively, they have end depth and young DTís. Maybe Iím crazy. Just an idea.

    Philadelphia Eagles pick: CB Charles Godrey, Iowa

    30. Dallas Cowboys

    While I made the Philly trade with the idea that they might want to jump Dallas (and Green Bay), I also think Dallas may contemplate moving down, with or without a team moving up to snag someone. CB value isnít that different from here to the 3rd, and the 3-4 DL value is borderline here. I come up with

    Projected Trade:

    Minnesota gets the 30th overall
    Dallas gets Minnesotaís 2nd and 4th in 2008, plus a 3rd rounder in 2009

    Green Bay isnít really a threat to take a WR, but can Minnesota really sit back and wait? Iím highly doubtful, and next to QB, WR is their 2nd biggest concern. Sure, there are other areas of concern, but those are the focal areas, and I donít think Dallas would necessarily force their last 3rd this year to make a deal and Dallas could get intrigued with a future pick to balance it out. Dallas can still address CB or DL in the early 2nd, and Minnesota can address OL or perhaps DL in the 3rd.

    Minnesota pick: WR Early Doucet, Louisiana State

    31. Green Bay Packers

    After a couple moves, the Packers find themselves staring at some intriguing options. If Grant continues producing, then I think they wait on RB. I think theyíll add someone, just not here. Jack Ikegwuonu, if he checks out, could get the nod. Yes, Jonathan Stewart slipped out of the first this go around.

    Green Bay Packers pick: CB Jack Ikegwuonu, Wisconsin

    32. New England Patriots - forfeited

  • #2
    Clady is a solid pick for KC.
    my scent? making love to a lumberjack
    <TACKLE> i will ngata give you a bj raji
    <+BOE> Scott, with Burfict's character concerns (whether legit or not) you think Pioli would draft him. :D
    <+ScottWright> Why not. Baldwin does need a sparring partner...
    Originally posted by Hermstheman83
    What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.


    • #3
      With Ryan and Woodson both off the board Jenkins is the next best player who fills a big need. Nice raven pick :)


      • #4
        Yes, Ronnie and McFadden would give us a great 1-2 punch, but so does Ronnie, Chatman, & Lorenzo Booker (If he ever starts to get involved in the offense, he is a very dynamic player)... we have so many other holes that is we choose ANOTHER running back.... we will be in some serious trouble. We are not looking, nor will we be looking to trade Ronnie anytime soon.... McFadden looks good, but there have been sure thing players that have been huge busts in the league before. Although I do not see that happening for him, it is still possible and why would we give up on Ronnie who is already proven to be one of the league's elite when healthy. We need a trade down, and if we don't, a running back cannot and most likely will not be the pick. Crazier things have happened, but I just don't see a RB being the pick, even if it is McFadden, that just doesn't make a lot of sense.

        Dolphins Dream Draft: 1. Jaylon Smith 2. Artie Burns 3. Landon Turner


        • #5
          My one Fins comments (extended to cover for any sort of comments that may arise from other Fins posters, this isn't directed at you specifically thebow) -

          You aren't giving up on Ronnie. Scenarios:

          a) Ronnie's recovery goes faster than expected and he's clearly ready by week 1.

          Running back treads wear out. After 2008-2009, Brown has 2 more years on the deal if I have it correct. Giving Ronnie Brown another big contract at that point is a bit risky (after the 2010-2011 season, as he'd be 29.) It's possible, as the Seahawks did with Shaun, but it's risky. If you buy Darren as an elite talent, you potentially extend his career by easing him in and Ronnie can become a valuable chip after 08-09 or after 09-10. For the 08-09 season, you can relentlessly pound two RB's away and protect the defense, and give Beck a better chance. Yes, Chatman and Booker are nice, and they've done well. But I think very few view them as capable lead options. Chatman's turning 29 next year as well, along with the fact that he's a FA after this season.

          b) Ronnie's recovery goes about on pace, meaning that, while he may be healthy enough to play, he's not at full strength.

          McFadden offers an ease in for Ronnie, and if he gets back at full strength, Darren can get rest later in the year when he may potentially hit a rookie wall. Ronnie can be an intriguing trade chip after the season, as teams would potentially be more interested in a guy with 2 years left on the deal than one.

          c) Ronnie isn't ready at the start of the year.

          Darren becomes the lead back, and Ronnie gets to continue rehabbing. If he comes back mid-year, he could still be a trade chip, or they could go with a 2-headed horse for 09-10 and opt to deal Ronnie after that season.

          Other thoughts -

          I still don't see a trade. The only one that might make some sense right now is Oakland, but I question it, as they can get a good player that definitely fits their need at 3.

          I believe taking Kentwan Balmer in the 2nd (had I done a 2nd, that would've been the pick), Maurice Murray in the 3rd, or Kendall Langford in the 4th (just some possibilities) is a better option than going Glenn Dorsey in the first.

          I think OT can wait. OL is playing well enough and there's enough OL depth. If they pass on Balmer in this mock, they could go with a number of OT talents as options and take a DL end 2nd or early 3rd.

          One caveat - If they fire Capers and go full 4-3, that changes the entire dynamics of the above, and yes, I'd go Dorsey.


          • #6
            I would be sick if Chicago got Jake Long. I like Chris Williams though. I see you are quite high on Jeff Otah.


            • #7
              In all honesty, as a Bears fan, part of me would rather not get Jake Long. I see best case scenario for Long basically being a somewhat akin to John Tait, perhaps good for awhile at LT, better at RT. Part of me would rather go after someone like Clady.

              The other part of me says that if Cedric Benson is still our running back, a bruiser like Long may be what the doctor ordered.

              It's not that I'm high on Otah (my personal favorite OT would still be Clady). It's that I can see him going that high. That said, it could very well be Long or Clady at 5.


              • #8
                Cato's contract doesn't expire this year toon so I just can't justify picking a guy at linebacker on the first day, let alone the first round. Particularly because he would be playing on the strong side.


                • #9
                  Yes, I know Cato's contract doesn't end this year. But I was under the impression that there were escalators this offseason that kicked the contract up by a bit. That said, I could be wrong. If that's the case, I'll revisit this real soon.

                  Edit: Okay, looks like 2 million in escalators this offseason. That doesn't seem like much, although I don't know the Bucs cap situation. Considering that June has been playing more than the usual SAM backer in the system, they should probably carry that and thus a LB pick there makes no sense, as great a fit as Keith Rivers might be. That said, if someone can update me on the cap situation, I'd appreciate it.
                  Last edited by toonsterwu; 11-23-2007, 02:59 AM.


                  • #10
                    The 2007 salary cap was approximately $109 million. The Buccaneers have not come close to exceeding that mark this season.

                    As of now, the Bucs have spent approximately $92.394 million dollars in player costs this season, giving them approximately $16.6 million in money to work with. At this point in the season the Bucs aren’t going to make any moves that will eat up that cap space. But, if the Bucs had chosen to make a flashy trade during the offseason or the regular season for a top tier player, they could have absorbed just about any contract.

                    Now, in terms of next season, the Buccaneers’ restraint on the free agent market in 2007 may prove prophetic. Tampa Bay stands to have approximately $29.4 million to invest in players (that includes the cost to sign whatever rookies they select in the draft). Plus, in the offseason the NFL only forces the Buccaneers to count their Top 51 salaries against the cap. Currently the Buccaneers have 48 players under contract for 2008 at a cost of $86.575 million.

                    Also, at this time, approximately $13.269 million in player costs will come off the Bucs’ books in the way of current players who are eligible for free agency.

                    In other words, if the Bucs want to be players in free agency this year, money won’t be an excuse.

                    Salary figures used in this article were compiled through league sources, the NFL Players Association and published reports.


                    • #11
                      New England Patriots pick: DL Chris Long, Virginia
                      I guess the popular question would be: Who does he replace? Ty Warren? Richard Seymour? Hell, they can't even get Jarvis Green the number of snaps his play warrants. Unless you're projecting Long to OLB, I honestly don't see anywhere he'd fit. The #2 overall pick coming in as the #4 DE? Ouch.

                      Oakland Raiders pick: DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU
                      B. E. A. Utiful.


                      • #12
                        I'm going to make some changes, although they'll likely happen from Arizona's pick on down. Not all the picks will get changed, just some, and then maybe add a round 2 if I get around to it. At earliest, this afternoon/evening.

                        As for New England, both Green and Seymour's contracts end in 2010 I believe. Ideally, I'd make a deal with them, but not sure who right now until we know if a team falls for anyone. Long makes the most sense out of defensive talent in that, there isn't a great LB fit and while I like CB, I don't see them taking a CB at 2, and Long's a better fit than Dorsey, IMO. Not sold they'd go offensive line, but it's not impossible I guess. Add in that Seymour's been banged up the last few years, so a bit more depth wouldn't hurt. But no, I think a deal happens, just not sure who as of this moment.


                        • #13
                          VERY good pick for the Ravens

                          Baltimore: 7-4


                          • #14
                            I like the pick and am really moving away from taking a RB. Since Grant has gotten playing time he's gone over 100 yards 3 out of the 5 games and has a 4.6 average. With Woodson getting hurt in the 1st yesteday Bush and the rest of our back up CBs still held one of the top receiving corps in check. Even with that we'll need a starter for the future once Harris loses it though.


                            • #15
                              So does Sam Baker fall out of the first round? I don't really know much about Geno Hayes, but I would jump on Sam Baker if he falls to the Giants.

                              Originally posted by Halsey
                              I don't have to watch it to know it was not interesting.



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