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Football Outsiders DVOA Season Predictions

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  • Football Outsiders DVOA Season Predictions

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...oa-projections


    I don't put much into the DVOA but it may be the only preseason prediction I have seen with the Bears making the Playoffs?

    Here is a snippet of DVOA is supposed to measure.
    DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
    Last edited by dabears10; 09-08-2010, 04:03 PM. Reason: DVOA explanation

    Thanks to BoneKrusher Credit and Rep to him for the sig.


  • #2
    It has the Chiefs winning the AFC West too, so not sure I really buy it.

    Originally posted by fenikz
    His soft D really turns me off
    ** RIP themaninblack. You will be missed. **

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    • #3
      They have Atlanta winning soundly over New Orleans. Hopefully, but I am a bit bullish on this. In fact, I used to use their stuff a lot but they have been wildly off on quite a few different things.

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      • #4
        1. Falcons
        2. Packers
        3. Eagles
        4. Seahawks
        5. Bears
        6. Vikings

        1. Ravens
        2. Patriots
        3. Colts
        4. Chiefs
        5. Steelers
        6. Dolphins

        Interesting.

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        • #5
          Please God make it true!

          Comment


          • #6
            Fun stuff. I don't really put that much into DVOA going forward. But it's really cool to look at it to kind of gauge where your team has been over the past few years compared to other teams. As I pretty much understand it, they try their best to put all the teams in and compare and rank them in a vacuum. Just not sure if it's possible to put those statistics where you basically take out the opponent and then apply it towards playing an opponent...if that makes sense. It's cool how they break everything down though.
            Still Team The Ke$ha!!!

            [@TDWinstead]
            Originally posted by MichaelJordanEberle (sabf)
            Damn Ke$ha is sexy.

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            • #7
              Not even being homer but the 49ers as the #28 team in the League???

              I know last month they predicted the Rams to win more games than the 49ers.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by GB12 View Post
                1. Falcons
                2. Packers
                3. Eagles
                4. Seahawks
                5. Bears
                6. Vikings

                1. Ravens
                2. Patriots
                3. Colts
                4. Chiefs
                5. Steelers
                6. Dolphins

                Interesting.
                The AFC's only real headscratcher is KC, and even they're not all that hard to believe. If the Chargers suck it up like they sometimes do and KC does just enough to go maybe 9-7, they could slip in and take the division.

                The NFC....damn. I mean, I'm glad the Bears are in but they are way off I feel like.

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                • #9
                  The Seahawks win the NFC West with what exactly? Mike Williams fulfilling Mel Kiper's prediction of a Hall of Fame like dominant career? Matt Hasselbeck and Justin Forsett? Lawyer Milloy stepping into the fountain of youth?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Shiver View Post
                    The Seahawks win the NFC West with what exactly? Mike Williams fulfilling Mel Kiper's prediction of a Hall of Fame like dominant career? Matt Hasselbeck and Justin Forsett? Lawyer Milloy stepping into the fountain of youth?
                    That's what I'm saying, I think they're the least talented team in the NFL. Their best player is their injured rookie left tackle.

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                    • #11
                      Arizona still projects as the NFC West champion, although the Cardinals' overall projection has moved a lot closer to the conventional wisdom.
                      Man it is such a bad division.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Bucs_Rule View Post
                        Man it is such a bad division.
                        Only because the "majority" doesn't give Alex Smith much of a chance. Aside from depth at CB, the 49ers are pretty much stacked at every position. And I hope that doesn't come across as homeristic. I think it's reality.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by phlysac View Post
                          Only because the "majority" doesn't give Alex Smith much of a chance. Aside from depth at CB, the 49ers are pretty much stacked at every position. And I hope that doesn't come across as homeristic. I think it's reality.
                          Alex Smith has never given a reasonable mind much reason to give him a chance. I like the 49ers this year and think they'll win the division if Alex Smith is at least average.

                          I also don't like their edge rushers. They need their own version of a Ware/Merriman/Woodley to get pressure without blitzing.

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                          • #14
                            There is probably only one players on the Seahawks I would have starting on my Falcons roster: Aaron Curry to pair with Sean Weatherspoon.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by phlysac View Post
                              Only because the "majority" doesn't give Alex Smith much of a chance. Aside from depth at CB, the 49ers are pretty much stacked at every position. And I hope that doesn't come across as homeristic. I think it's reality.
                              I think they are the favorites to win the division. Smith much to my surprise played well last year when they went into the spread. If they can get Gore going in spread formations they could be really good.

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