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  • Week 9 Discussion Thread

    Sunday
    Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
    Chicago @ Buffalo
    New England @ Cleveland
    NY Jets @ Detroit
    New Orleans @ Carolina
    Miami @ Baltimore
    San Diego @ Houston
    Arizona @ Minnesota
    NY Giants @ Seattle
    Indianapolis @ Philadelphia
    Kansas City @ Oakland
    Dallas @ Green Bay

    Monday
    Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

    I worry about our pass defense against Cincy. Their defense isn't that good this year, and I'm sure we can score points on them, but this game kind of worries me. That said, I think Pittsburgh can win easily if they can contain TO and Ocho.

  • #2
    I have no faith in the Bengals to beat anyone, even at home. They got lucky to even be in the game with the Dolphins. The Steelers are arguably a better team. I have been anti Bengals (not hating) all season. I felt like Palmer was just done in general, and adding TO was not going to solve the problems.



    I am "America's Poster"... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/for...9&postcount=25

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    • #3
      Interestingly enough, though: Eagles are currently favored by 3.0 by Vegas over the visiting Colts. In his career, Andy Reid teams are 11-0 in the regular season following a bye week and 3-1 in the playoffs (only loss was to the Pats in the Super Bowl). The line also hasn't moved which means that the big Vegas players are either staying away or waiting to see how things go. Vegas seems to think that the Eagles have a chance here, and they don't like being wrong...



      I am "America's Poster"... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/for...9&postcount=25

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      • #4
        Apart from the Buffalo game, this is the first game I've felt confident about for the Patriots. So with that being said; get your money on the Browns


        BoneKrusher killing it with the sig

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        • #5
          The Browns are sneakily not terrible this season. Same goes for STL (who I've ridden to some very nice profits) and Detroit. Also going against KC at this point (overvalued). I think I'm staying away from the Eagles-Colts game as a bettor, but I'm definitely betting Detroit and Buffalo. Probably going to play the Bucs + the points and think Dallas is actually undervalued. Might put a single unit play on them + the big number.



          I am "America's Poster"... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/for...9&postcount=25

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          • #6
            ^St. Louis is actually just plain good.

            I've been an awful predictor/handicapper this season but here goes...


            Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
            Tampa is the flavor of the week, and rightfully so, but Atlanta coming off a bye at home will be tough. I think the birds win big thanks to a huge day from Turner and some big plays on D.
            Falcons 34, Bucs 14

            Chicago @ Buffalo
            Buffalo has lost two heartbreakers in a row and played basically 9+ quarters in the past two weeks. With 0 pass rush, this is exactly the type of matchup that the Bears will show well in.
            Bears 35, Bills 21

            New England @ Cleveland
            Cleveland has been sneaky but New England is finally getting results from their young defenders. I can't see Colt McCoy outplaying a Belichick scheme, although the Browns D may be able to stifle the Pats ho-hum offense.
            Patriots 19, Browns 6

            NY Jets @ Detroit
            Revis vs. Calvin is the main attraction, but two things from last week need to NOT happen again for the Jets to win big: Detroit's DL dominating and the Jets receivers playing horrible. Both are unlikely to be repeated. You can't expect anything from the RBs against the Jets D and even though everything else but the running game went great for Detroit last week, they still may have lost had Shannahan not put in Grossman.
            Jets 24, Lions 7

            New Orleans @ Carolina
            I just think this is going to be a very weird game. The Saints executed at an extremely high level on Sunday night and got lucky with an uncharacteristic Heath Miller fumble.
            Panthers 27, Saints 24

            Miami @ Baltimore
            The Dolphins are one of the best teams in the NFL right now with their three losses coming at the hands of New England, Pittsburgh, and the Jets. They'll get a good performance out of Henne this week and shock a Baltimore team that has a weak secondary and inconsistent offense.
            Dolphins 35, Ravens 32

            San Diego @ Houston
            A loss to for either team would be devastating, if for different reasons. I just think if SD can eliminate the ridiculous special teams mistakes (Randy McMichael LOL), they can win any game. Their running game is improved and the Houston defense is beyond terrible. Schaub will struggle at times against the SD pass rush.
            Chargers 35, Texans 24

            Arizona @ Minnesota
            This has to be the week Minnesota just goes bonkers and wins by 30... right?
            Vikings 42, Cardinals 13

            NY Giants @ Seattle

            I cannot see Seattle competing with the Giants with all their injuries. Although the Giants could just decide not to show up... they do that sometimes and going out West can be troublesome. Still, when an injury to Tyler Polumbus is an issue, you know you have gigantic problems at left tackle. This is not the DL you want to be facing.
            Giants 30, Seahawks 13

            Indianapolis @ Philadelphia
            I think Vick and Manning will give us a classic, but the Eagles will come up just short.
            Colts 42, Eagles 38

            Kansas City @ Oakland
            I too am not a huge believer in Cassel/KC. But Oakland is probably the last team I'd want to see them play this week (for gambling purposes). If KC was in Denver or something I'd be all over DEN. So basically, I have no clue here but I like Oakland more.
            Raiders 27, Chiefs 23

            Dallas @ Green Bay
            Dallas looks like they've quit but yes, they've been snowballing and all it takes is some luck and they'll have a good week. Not against a team that is hungry to show that it's elite.
            Packers 35, Cowboys 24

            Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
            I expect Tomlin to get his team ready to destroy the Bengals but for some reason I think Cinci is due for a good showing. They'll keep it close but fall short.
            Steelers 27, Bengals 23
            "I'm Ko Simpson!"

            - Ko Simpson

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            • #7
              I give you props for predicting all of the games, but handicapping has way less to do with predicted scores and way more to do with trends, what they've done this season, etc. There are some games where you should probably bet the over (i.e. Tampa/Atlanta) and others where the under is a nice play (New Orleans Carolina jumps out). For individual games, you need to look at history this season and history between the teams. What is the situation? How well does Indy do on short rest? Find the values, then bet them. There are teams that are undervalued and teams that are overvalued. Find the lines that look the juiciest, and bet them. You want to make the most mathematically logical plays.

              For instance, the Lions-Jets game has some interesting trends. First of all, the Lions are 6-1 against the spread this season, while the Jets are 5-2. The Lions are also 3-0 ATS at home, while the Jets are 3-0 ATS on the road. Over the last 3 years, the Jets are 16-11 as a road team ATS, while the Lions are 11-15 ATS as a home team. Also look that the Jets are a very strong rushing team, while the Lions average giving up 150 yards on the ground. However, a lot of Detroit's passing numbers were with Shawn Hill at the helm. Stafford offers them a potentially explosive offensive output, even though the Jets D is very strong. A lot of games in the league have been decided by less than 7 points. Many are decided by 3 points. In this case, you play the math and take the 4 points.



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              • #8
                Game of the week!?!? Chiefs v Raiders..

                Should be interesting, we are playing hot right now and KC almost lost to the bills last week. Cassel won't be a problem for us in my eyes and our run defense could hold up, but the tandem of Charles/Jones is working. It is going to be a good regardless I think but I wouldn't be surprised if we lost by 17 or something with the way things are going this year.
                Originally posted by ATLDirtyBirds
                Coples is that dude.
                Go Amare. I Love Tayshaun Prince...

                Orioles - Raiders - UNC - Nuggets/Wizards

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                • #9
                  Raiders-Chiefs in a meaningful game is certainly something, but I think there will be a lot of attention paid to the Eagles-Colts game, especially with Vick and perhaps DeSean Jackson back from injury.



                  I am "America's Poster"... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/for...9&postcount=25

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by bsaza2358 View Post
                    Raiders-Chiefs in a meaningful game is certainly something, but I think there will be a lot of attention paid to the Eagles-Colts game, especially with Vick and perhaps DeSean Jackson back from injury.
                    Haha agreed haven't had one recently. I was just hyping it up! I do like the Eagles game as far as good football too, and I would probably go Colts but it is almost a toss up with Vick coming back. They play different with him and if Djax is back Indys secondary could get torched.
                    Last edited by thenewfeature06; 11-03-2010, 12:47 PM.
                    Originally posted by ATLDirtyBirds
                    Coples is that dude.
                    Go Amare. I Love Tayshaun Prince...

                    Orioles - Raiders - UNC - Nuggets/Wizards

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                    • #11
                      The game will hinge on the Eagles pressuring Manning and covering/tackling, along with the ability for Peters/Dunlap at LT and Justice at RT to block Freeney/Mathis. Assuming Vick has time, I like the matchups against the Colts D. If he is pressured, it might be a long day.

                      As I noted above, the Eagles are actually favored in this game. Vegas is not a believer in Indy this week for whatever reason...



                      I am "America's Poster"... http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/for...9&postcount=25

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bsaza2358 View Post
                        The game will hinge on the Eagles pressuring Manning and covering/tackling, along with the ability for Peters/Dunlap at LT and Justice at RT to block Freeney/Mathis. Assuming Vick has time, I like the matchups against the Colts D. If he is pressured, it might be a long day.

                        As I noted above, the Eagles are actually favored in this game. Vegas is not a believer in Indy this week for whatever reason...
                        All Brandon Graham fans should watch for his big breakout game next Sunday vs. the Colts. RT Ryan Diem is having a terrible year and cannot handle anybody with speed. Meanwhile our best blocking TE left the game with a rib injury Monday night, so Diem will not get much help.

                        Vick could have a big day on the ground. The Colts D is fast but they overpursue all the time. If Vick can cut like I think he can he could run for serious yardage. I am starting him in fantasy for sure. Though if Session gets a good shot on him he might leave the game.

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                        • #13
                          "Let's get smart, let's get healthy, and let's go eat some bird next week" - Raheem Morris Post Game Speech

                          <3


                          Mike Will & V-Jax

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by killxswitch View Post
                            All Brandon Graham fans should watch for his big breakout game next Sunday vs. the Colts. RT Ryan Diem is having a terrible year and cannot handle anybody with speed. Meanwhile our best blocking TE left the game with a rib injury Monday night, so Diem will not get much help.

                            Vick could have a big day on the ground. The Colts D is fast but they overpursue all the time. If Vick can cut like I think he can he could run for serious yardage. I am starting him in fantasy for sure. Though if Session gets a good shot on him he might leave the game.
                            Vick might run for serious yardage, but look more for McCoy on draws and screens/designed clearouts for quick hitters. I would have to think that the Colts are going to try to stop the running game first. Graham might have a good day, but the rook lost his job to a very strong vet in Juquae Parker. Parker + Cole have been pretty beastly so far. Graham is more of a situational rusher at this point.



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                            • #15
                              A good show-me game.

                              Atlanta's still going to own. Talib usually does a decent job against White, but he's on a different level this season. Them coming off a bye and it being at home doesn't help.

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