2009 season - expectations?

[vidae]

Been thinking about this post for a while and wasn't sure when a proper time to post it, but here goes.

What can we reasonably expect out of the 2009 Chiefs? We've made a lot of moves in the offseason (Goff, Ghuciac, Vrabel, Thomas, Cassel to name a few) and I was wondering how you think this translates to improving our team?

Obviously we're going with a veteran approach here (save Cassel) and I definitely think our offensive line play will be improved and it looks as if we have some people in the LB group who can tackle, which is a plus, but how will this translate to wins?

Right now I think we're a five or six win team, max. We've beefed up our linebackers and are improving our defensive line (Tyson Jackson and Magee) so I do look for our defense to take a step forward, whether or not we're playing a 4-3, 4-3 under or 3-4. That's good.

I do, however, see our offense take a small step back. Yes, our offensive line is going to improve, and Cassel is definitely an upgrade back there over Thigpen, but we did get rid of Tony Gonzalez which leaves us kind of limited in the offensive threats. Bowe and Bradley were good last year, but a lot of that was because of the pressure Tony put on opposing defenses. LJ has been terrible the last few years (off and on the field) and he doesn't scare defenses like he used to. Maybe he'll be back to form with an improved offensive line but I think you'll see this side of the ball struggle more this year.

I definitely think things are headed in the right direction. Obviously the draft will play a big part in that (Jackson and Magee getting comfortable early, etc) but I'm predicting a 6-10 season this year. Even though 6-10 might seem bleak, it's a hell of a lot better than 2-14. :)

What're your thoughts?

ps I wrote this at 3:30am, so take it for what it's worth. ;)

[BPhilb]

I think 6-8 wins are reasonable, a lot of that though has to do with the respective strength of our division. I do think we will play the run better on D this year and our pass rush will be better mostly because it can't get worse. I also am not sure how we are going to move the ball as I am still concerned about our line and also our precieved lack of weapons. I think we will live off of the big play more this year but I'm anxious to see how Haley runs our offense. It does appear we are still thin at many positions though and a couple of injuries could make things very difficult for us. I just want to start seeing some imporvment. I'm tired of December games that are not meaningful.

[Strawdog]

I'm not sure how much weight people here put into the Prospectus work, but one of the formulas they use is looking at the previous year and seeing if the team significantly under or over achieved (determined by points scored/allowed). Accordingly, significant deviations from expected achievement are usually a sign that the team will trend quickly in the other direction. Based on that, KC underachieved the third most last year and the Chiefs should have won 6.6 games.

I don't know how successful combining insight with the algorithm is, but I'm going to take that 6.6 games and predict 7-9 wins because I think we've made significant enough improvement from last year to be considered a better team.

Of course, if you ask again once I get this semester out of my system, I'll probably just claim we should be the favorites for the Super Bowl.

[AJHawk50]

Well I agree in the aspect that we are progressing, and we are building pieces together. We WILL win more games than last year, thankfully. Saying that, the loss of Tony Gonzalez is going to hurt us in the short term. A big hurt at that. Think of all the times we had a 3rd down or a play we needed to make and Tony would get open with double coverage and pull down the catch. Dwayne Bowe is really going to have to step up this year now. He becomes our No. 1 threat. I am interested to see the development of Brad Cottam as well as Bobby Engram this year. Bobby Engram needs to play consistently. Mark Bradley needs to do as he did last year, surprised me for sure. I think the big three factors are going to be, how does the new defense do in it's first year, how is Larry Johnson going to play (like a bum, or with power again), and the strength of our schedule. We have a harsh schedule that is going to make it that much harder on us this year.

Here is what I am possibly thinking as far the schedule and wins/losses. Of course this all becomes inaccurate as soon as a key player gets injured, etc.

09/13/09 at Baltimore Ravens - Loss
09/20/09 Oakland Raiders - Win
09/27/09 at Philadelphia Eagles - Loss
10/04/09 New York Giants - Loss
10/11/09 Dallas Cowboys - Loss
10/18/09 at Washington Redskins - Loss
10/25/09 San Diego Chargers - Win
11/01/09 Bye
11/08/09 at Jacksonville Jaguars - Win
11/15/09 at Oakland Raiders - Win
11/22/09 Pittsburgh Steelers - Loss
11/29/09 at San Diego Chargers - Loss
12/06/09 Denver Broncos - Win
12/13/09 Buffalo Bills - Win
12/20/09 Cleveland Browns - Win
12/27/09 at Cincinnati Bengals - Win
01/03/10 at Denver Broncos - Loss

This is under a good scenario for us, would be an 8 win season. I can easily take back a few, so I would say 6-8 wins for the season.

[villagewarrior]

I expect the Chiefs to be improved this season, but I think I would only expect 5-6 wins. We lost the best TE ever and the running game is completely inconsistent and we have no idea what's going to happen there, and the pass rush is still unsolved. I expect the run defense to be better, but if the offense can't control the ball then there is no way the defense will show significant improvements statistically.

[Hermstheman83]

I do like a lot of the moves we've made in the off-season. I don't think our D is as improved as advertised. Then again, Dorsey is going to be put into his ideal spot, this 4-3u is way more aggressive so we'll have a decent pass rush. Tyson Jackson and Macgee are born to stop the run. Also, our secondary will be top 15 this year. A year of development definately helps youngins' like Carr and Flowers.

Offensively, we got An upgrade at QB, the Line and our starting running back either produces this year or gets cut and won't have a dime to show for it. Losing Gonzo sucks, really bad. But, D-Bo by all accounts will have a bigger year than last year, and we got more depth at Wide Reciever.
But I think one of the few things herm left us was depth at Running back. LJ can still produce(for maybe another year?), Charles and Kolby combo can be respectable.
We could potentially be 8 and 8 to take our division, but I think it's more around 5-6 wins. Our schedule is rough, and the first like 8 weeks we might only have one victory under our belts. Also, cats do get injured.. Injuries and Demoralizing Victories equal to having another year of meaningless december games.

[Splat]

Any thing more then 6 wins is overachieving.

[nepg]

Any thing more then 6 wins is overachieving.

That's false. They're a solid 8-8 team. Should got 4-2 in the division. Unfortunately, they have a really tough schedule... But they should take Cleveland, Cincy, and Washington. Dallas, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Baltimore are "too tough to call". If they split those, they end up with 9 wins.

I've yet to make an official prediction, but I've been dead-on predicting Chiefs' wins the last two seasons (not that it was hard, imo).

[Hermstheman83]

That's false. They're a solid 8-8 team. Should got 4-2 in the division. Unfortunately, they have a really tough schedule... But they should take Cleveland, Cincy, and Washington. Dallas, Buffalo, Jacksonville, and Baltimore are "too tough to call". If they split those, they end up with 9 wins.

I've yet to make an official prediction, but I've been dead-on predicting Chiefs' wins the last two seasons (not that it was hard, imo).

Dead on eh? You should either be a vegas jockey or pinch yourself because your dreaming pal. If we win 8 games this year it'll be a miracle. Pioli has upgraded our entire team, but there is a reason why we were 2-14 last year dude. And Zach Thomas, Vrabel and Cassell doesn't earn us six more wins.

[nepg]

...but there is a reason why we were 2-14 last year dude.

Ya, the coaching staff, lack of NFL QB, and the demeanor of the organization. The three areas that experienced the biggest upgrades this off-season.

[nepg]

And I hate when people say going from 2-14 or whatever to 7+ wins is some sort of impossibility... They're not going from 2-14 to 8-8 or better, they're going from 0-0, just like every other team.

[vidae]

I actually predicted 4-12 and 2-14 the last two years. This year I'm saying 6-10, max, but that's just my opinion.

[Hermstheman83]

And I hate when people say going from 2-14 or whatever to 7+ wins is some sort of impossibility... They're not going from 2-14 to 8-8 or better, they're going from 0-0, just like every other team.

Did you happen to look at our schedule? Of the four teams that made the AFC/NFC championships, we're playing three of them. We're playing the last two super bowl champions, and that's in the first 7 weeks of the season.

Our offensive line is still not in good shape(Goff was a decent pickup, and Ghiurac might, MIGHT beat our Niswanger..not exactly a hard feat). Yes, our linebackers have improved, but we don't know if the two new starters will be able to stay healthy.

I'm not saying 7+ wins is impossible. But you have to be realistic. There is a good possibility that in the first seven weeks, we'll be 1-6(with our lone win coming against Oakland). Then you have to assume injuries might tally up. Which would kill us if that happened on the offensive line.

And yes, we COULD beat Washington and Cleveland. But c'mon, it's hard to imagine that we'd beat dallas, baltimore or Jacksonville. I could maybe see jacksonville, but they have a pretty potent rushing attack and the last time i checked, we were like 31st in rushing defense.

Also, with the King Carl Regime, it was always win first. That was Carl's biggest flaw, signing veterans that could put out another decent year and maybe make a push for the playoffs. He finally had to blow up the team(even against Carls' wishes btw) Also, your making a big assumption that a rookie head coach is going to be better than Herm. We haven't seen him in action yet. Rod Marinelli was a hell of a D-Coord, and look how he did in Detroit.

[ChiefLee]

I'd be hard pressed to predict anything more than 6 wins. And most of those would come within our division. Raiders will still be bad. Chargers are not the same without Marty at the helm. And Denver is mediocre at best.

I really think Pioli is building for 2010 and beyond, not 2009. And I'm good with that :)

[nepg]

Did you happen to look at our schedule? Of the four teams that made the AFC/NFC championships, we're playing three of them. We're playing the last two super bowl champions, and that's in the first 7 weeks of the season.

So? I'm looking at individual games, not saying "OMG, they play the Stillers...Chiefs are scroood!"

Our offensive line is still not in good shape(Goff was a decent pickup, and Ghiurac might, MIGHT beat our Niswanger..not exactly a hard feat). Yes, our linebackers have improved, but we don't know if the two new starters will be able to stay healthy.

Goff's a solid starter. Thomas & Vrabel aren't just there to play, they're there to show the other defensive players how to get ready to play.

I'm not saying 7+ wins is impossible. But you have to be realistic. There is a good possibility that in the first seven weeks, we'll be 1-6(with our lone win coming against Oakland). Then you have to assume injuries might tally up. Which would kill us if that happened on the offensive line.

Ya, they might only have 2-3 wins going into their bye week, but that's just because it's the tough part of their schedule. The other teams will have injuries as well. The Chiefs' starters along the OL last year were mostly solid backups, so now they are what they're supposed to be. The Chiefs have decent OL depth.

And yes, we COULD beat Washington and Cleveland. But c'mon, it's hard to imagine that we'd beat dallas, baltimore or Jacksonville. I could maybe see jacksonville, but they have a pretty potent rushing attack and the last time i checked, we were like 31st in rushing defense.

You're still looking at the Chiefs from last year. You're unable to disconnect and see what the Chiefs are really likely to be. I also don't think you actually read what I said. I said they're likely to beat Cleveland, Cincy, and Washington. I said the Jacksonville, Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo games could go either way, so I predicted a split. Even if they went 1-3 in those 4 games, that's an 8-8 record.

Also, with the King Carl Regime, it was always win first. That was Carl's biggest flaw, signing veterans that could put out another decent year and maybe make a push for the playoffs. He finally had to blow up the team(even against Carls' wishes btw) Also, your making a big assumption that a rookie head coach is going to be better than Herm. We haven't seen him in action yet. Rod Marinelli was a hell of a D-Coord, and look how he did in Detroit.

Rod Marinelli was never a defensive coordinator, and was never on the same page with Matt Millen. Plus, he was a much older coach who was set in ways that just don't work at the head coaching level.