MLB Discussion Thread

[Brodeur]

No, since Maholm's BABIP is actually below average...

If a pitcher has a BABIP below .300, it means he's getting lucky with the location of where the ball is being hit. It's almost impossible to consistently have a BABIP below .300.

That's not exactly true. If a pitcher can limit his line drive percentage consistently, or if he has a very good defense combined with ground ball tendencies, he can easily get his BABIP at .280 (see Greg Maddux),

I don't see how a low BABIP is lucky when he's pitching well? Yeah he does give up home runs, but he does it when no one is on base. As long as he gets the outs when he needs them then I don't see how he is lucky. His WHIP, ERA and opponent BA are good. Those are the primary stats I look at.

Im not huge into baseball stats. I just think Karstens is pitching well and that he deserves some credit. He's obviously not going to pitch this well all year but it's one hell of a dominant stretch IMO.

Karstens has been great when we need him. He's one of the unsung heros of the Pirates ever since he got to Pittsburgh.

That's not how BABIP works. Karstens line drive percentage is in line with his career average, and his ground ball percentage is only slightly better than his career average. While he does have an inflated HR/FB%, he's also limited his infield fly balls, so that's pretty much the explanation. As for WHIP, ERA, and opponents BA, they aren't very good measuring sticks.

Some pitchers have the ability to out perform their peripherals because they induce weak contact, and Karstens is not one of those guys. If you want an example of that, look at Jair Jurrjens (although he isn't this good either).

[DeepThreat]

Obviously there are exceptions to every rule, but what I said is typically true. As you said, by analyzing Karstens's LD% and such, you can tell he's just getting lucky.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

Jeff is also sporting a nice 2.14 differential in ERA and FIP.

[Borat]

Breakout your calculators and spreadsheets, it's a good ol' fashioned SABR-orgy.

[fenikz]

ya i love sabr stuff now, sucks that t2 was such a douche or i probably would of cared about them earlier

[Brodeur]

That's why I'm the Saber leader now, because I'm slightly less douchey than T2 and I get more in depth.

[Stash]

I kinda liked T2...

[bearsfan_51]

It's a wonder you suck so bad at fantasy Broduer, honestly.

[Hurricanes25]

I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.

[ElectricEye]

I like SABR stuff, but I don't think it's the end all be all. There's room for some traditional metrics and scouting in baseball, but modern stats have a tendency to tell you a whole lot more. As far as Karstens goes, he's having a nice year regardless of luck, but the numbers say he's getting a ton of breaks and it's hard to dispute that really.

I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.

They're getting a little bit better, but I find it hard to imagine that stats will ever be able to quantify defense perfectly. They've gotten to the point where they're useful to look at but need to be taken with a grain of salt.

[ATLDirtyBirds]

That's why I'm the Saber leader now, because I'm slightly less douchey than T2 and I get more in depth.

You are only the leader because I'm too lazy, and T2>you.

[Brodeur]

It's a wonder you suck so bad at fantasy Broduer, honestly.

I'm not very good at differentiating fantasy and reality when it comes to baseball. I'm much better at football.

I was once a "hater" of all of the sabr stats but I've come around to them. The only stat I don't like is UZR. Sabr is really useful for pitchers and batters. I just don't like the fielding stats.

UZR is alright, it's a good companion with +/- and Zone Rating.

[Damix]

UZR is still crap, it just happens to be one of the better pieces of crap, so we make due.

[Brodeur]

UZR is still crap, it just happens to be one of the better pieces of crap, so we make due.

No stat will ever make Derek Jeter a good fielder.

[Hurricanes25]

No stat will ever make Derek Jeter a good fielder.

Jeter's range is pretty bad, there's no denying that. Jeter just makes the plays that he should, something that a guy like Eduardo Nunez hasn't done is the last couple of weeks. Does that make Jeter a good defender? No, but he is dependable.