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TacticaLion 01-03-2007 01:42 AM

Is it true that...
 
... a QB that passes more will get sacked more?

For some reason, "baronzeus" is trying to argue that a QB that passes more WILL get sacked more, and I don't feel it is true.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baronzeus
So you don't agree that in general a team that passes more will be sacked more? Seems like a silly argument. Using premium pass rush stopping O-lines as a counterexample doesn't really pose a good argument.

I even provided the following information:

QBs - Most Passing Attempts:

Brett Favre - 613 Attempts - 21 Sacks
Jon Kitna - 596 Attempts - 63 Sacks
Marc Bulger - 588 Attempts - 49 Sacks
Peyton Manning - 557 Attempts - 14 Sacks
Drew Brees - 554 Attempts - 18 Sacks

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees were two of the least-sacked QBs in the NFL, while Marc Bulger and Jon Kitna were two of the most. Brett Favre had a THIRD of the sacks that Jon Kitna had, and less than half of the sacks that Marc Bulger had. Green Bay, Indianapolis and New Orleans are 3 of the 5 teams that gave up the fewest sacks.

Other QBs - Passing Attempts - Sacks

Daunte Culpepper - 134 Attempts - 21 Sacks
Trent Green - 198 Attempts - 24 Sacks
Aaron Brooks - 192 Attempts - 26 Sacks
Andrew Walter - 276 Attempts - 46 Sacks
Bruce Gradkowski - 328 Attempts - 25 Sacks

Peyton Manning passed more times than Daunte Culpepper, Trent Green and Aaron Brooks combined (524 attempts), and was sacked less than each of them individually. Andrew Walter passed 312 times less than Marc Bulger, but was sacked only 3 times fewer.

How can he think this is true? I believe that the quality of the offensive line and the talent of the QB dictate how much the QB will get sacked, he believes the number of passing attempts dictates how much the QB will get sacked.

Which is it?

MichaelJordanEberle (sabf) 01-03-2007 01:44 AM

It's a bit of both. If you run the ball alot, you won't get sacked as much, but if your O-Line is very good, or do alot of short drops, you cam pass alot with few sacks. That's why the "Dropbacks per sack" stat is important.

YAYareaRB 01-03-2007 02:11 AM

I think if the pass protection is there, it ultimately falls upon whether or not the QB is afraid to pass the ball or not. Either your a gun slinger like Brett Favre or just don't have faith in your own arm.

Flyboy 01-03-2007 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YAYareaRB
I think if the pass protection is there, it ultimately falls upon whether or not the QB is afraid to pass the ball or not. Either your a gun slinger like Brett Favre or just don't have faith in your own arm.

Or all your WRs or outlets are just plain covered and you have nowhere to throw...

YAYareaRB 01-03-2007 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyboy
Quote:

Originally Posted by YAYareaRB
I think if the pass protection is there, it ultimately falls upon whether or not the QB is afraid to pass the ball or not. Either your a gun slinger like Brett Favre or just don't have faith in your own arm.

Or all your WRs or outlets are just plain covered and you have nowhere to throw...

Of course that happens at times... But its almost unreal for it to happen 300+ times.

yodabear 01-03-2007 02:28 AM

Bulger's were due to the O-Line being dip-shits for a few weeks.

bigthonky7 01-03-2007 02:35 AM

I think its a bit of both just like chris.

Namy 01-03-2007 02:36 AM

There's more than one factor for a sack.

Passing more will up the chances of being sacked

Having a crappy OLine will guarantee being sacked more often (Put Manning behind the Raiders OLine)

A non-mobile QB will be sacked more (Bledsoe vs. Romo)

Tendency of the QB (Plummer would rather throw the pick than take the sack)

And give credit to the defensive team that generates the sacks

San Diego Chicken 01-03-2007 02:47 AM

The style of offense is also a factor. Favre has lots of pass attempts and he doesn't have better than an average line, but since it's a west coast offense with a ton of three step drops, he is rarely sacked. Compare that with Kitna who runs Martz's offense, where every pass play is a seven step drop.

baronzeus 01-03-2007 03:20 AM

You misconstrued what I said.

My claim was that in identical situations, QBs that pass more will be sacked more. You said you "don't want to deal" with hypothetical situations, then made this poll to prove something.

When you pass more, the D line has more chances at you, and your offense is more predictable, and so you get sacked more. It sucks but that's the way it is. Some people get away with it (Manning) by having amazing O-lines or running lots of screen play/short passes to keep the defense on its heels.


And yes, I think a better/smarter quarterback will be sacked less, in general.

NGSeiler 01-03-2007 04:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yodachu
Bulger's were due to the O-Line being dip-shits for a few weeks.

Only a few weeks? :lol:

Tubby 01-03-2007 10:22 AM

Its both. No matter how bad your O-line is, if you dont pass you dont get sacked.

draftguru151 01-03-2007 11:10 AM

If a QB throws more passes he will be sacked more, that's just plain common sense.

MaxV 01-03-2007 11:45 AM

The number of sacks has A LOT to do with the play of the O-Line and the ability of the QB to make a decision quickly and get rid of the ball guickly.

Peyton, Brees and Favre all get rid of the ball very quickly.

Guys like Culpepper, Vick and Walter hold on to the ball WAY too long.

draftguru151 01-03-2007 11:50 AM

The original poster made the question sound completely different. It is if everything is the same except the QB throws more in one and less in the other. Same OL, same QB, same offense, same WR, same everything, except one throws 40 times and one throws 30. It is quite obvious the guy who throws 40 times will be sacked more often.

MaxV 01-03-2007 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
The original poster made the question sound completely different. It is if everything is the same except the QB throws more in one and less in the other. Same OL, same QB, same offense, same WR, same everything, except one throws 40 times and one throws 30. It is quite obvious the guy who throws 40 times will be sacked more often.

Well off-course. But I don't think that was his question.

TacticaLion 01-03-2007 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
The original poster made the question sound completely different.

Did I? Lets see...
Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
If a QB throws more passes he will be sacked more, that's just plain common sense.

No, it is not just "plain common sense". If a QB throws more, he has the POTENTIAL to be sacked more... you keep saying "he will be sacked more", and it just isnt true. You're making it a fact, and it isnt a fact.

It has a lot to do with other factors.

The only way a QB will NEVER get sacked is if he NEVER passes the ball. No team in the history of the NFL has gone a full 16 games without attempting a pass, and there's a good chance it wont happen in the future. A QB can throw 500 times in a season and never be sacked, while another QB throws once and get sacked during his only attempt. You CAN NOT make it a fact... you CAN NOT say "if a QB throws more passes he will be sacked more"... because it IS NOT TRUE. You make hypothetical situations, and i've given you one there (in bold). If you bring real life situations into it, i've already proved it.
Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
If a QB throws more passes he will be sacked more, that's just plain common sense.

That's the argument both you and "baronzeus" were trying to make, and it isnt true.

Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
The original poster made the question sound completely different. It is if everything is the same except the QB throws more in one and less in the other. Same OL, same QB, same offense, same WR, same everything, except one throws 40 times and one throws 30. It is quite obvious the guy who throws 40 times will be sacked more often.

Here... i'll give you an example.

You're suggesting that if both situations are exactly the same. Lets take a quarter. You're basically saying this:

"If I flip a quarter 10 times, and if I flip a quarter 20 times, i'll get more tails with 20 flips than 10 flips." And it isnt true. You can flip 20 times and get all heads, and flip 10 times and get all tails. Sure, the chance is 50/50, but it doesn't always maintain a 50/50 percentage. The CHANCE is the same, but the OUTCOME isnt an exact amount.

jackalope 01-03-2007 06:46 PM

obviously if you pass more the odds are your sacks will be higher. however it's not always gonna be true. their are a lot of other variables.

TacticaLion 01-03-2007 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jackalope
obviously if you pass more the odds are your sacks will be higher. however it's not always gonna be true. their are a lot of other variables.

My point exactly.

Of COURSE doing something more increases the odds, but "draftguru" made this statement:
Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
If a QB throws more passes he will be sacked more, that's just plain common sense.

That is a false statement.

jkpigskin 01-03-2007 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jackalope
obviously if you pass more the odds are your sacks will be higher. however it's not always gonna be true. their are a lot of other variables.


such as oline, and tendancies to hold onto the ball..

guys like culpepper and vick hang on to the ball way to long...

Prowler 01-03-2007 09:39 PM

technically if you're doing the 'all things being equal' stipulation...then if peyton manning drops back 3000 times, he's going to be sacked more than if he dropped back 3 times....which still proves nothing but that point should be correct

JT Jag 01-03-2007 09:44 PM

It's a bit of both.

Understand that the quality of the offensive line and the coaching will be the primary driving factor in the quality of the blocking, or the lack thereof.

However, every time a player drops back to pass is another time that he could get sacked.

A team with just as bad an offensive line as another that passes the ball half as much as the other, with all things being equal, will logically have half as many sacks.

Jim Jim 01-03-2007 09:45 PM

A lot of factors, but Brett Favre does a good job of scrambling away or just getting away from pressure.

Tubby 01-03-2007 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by draftguru151
The original poster made the question sound completely different. It is if everything is the same except the QB throws more in one and less in the other. Same OL, same QB, same offense, same WR, same everything, except one throws 40 times and one throws 30. It is quite obvious the guy who throws 40 times will be sacked more often.

I dont think that TL has any kind of legit argument against this (TL, I read the whole topic, and your argument is the equivalent of a four year olds). He completely butchered the question in the topic which resulted in a lopsided vote. As a mod, abuse your powers. Please.

KILLERSANTA 01-03-2007 09:59 PM

No.....


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