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Hines 11-03-2010 09:58 AM

Week 9 Discussion Thread
 
Sunday
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Chicago @ Buffalo
New England @ Cleveland
NY Jets @ Detroit
New Orleans @ Carolina
Miami @ Baltimore
San Diego @ Houston
Arizona @ Minnesota
NY Giants @ Seattle
Indianapolis @ Philadelphia
Kansas City @ Oakland
Dallas @ Green Bay

Monday
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

I worry about our pass defense against Cincy. Their defense isn't that good this year, and I'm sure we can score points on them, but this game kind of worries me. That said, I think Pittsburgh can win easily if they can contain TO and Ocho.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 10:22 AM

I have no faith in the Bengals to beat anyone, even at home. They got lucky to even be in the game with the Dolphins. The Steelers are arguably a better team. I have been anti Bengals (not hating) all season. I felt like Palmer was just done in general, and adding TO was not going to solve the problems.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 10:24 AM

Interestingly enough, though: Eagles are currently favored by 3.0 by Vegas over the visiting Colts. In his career, Andy Reid teams are 11-0 in the regular season following a bye week and 3-1 in the playoffs (only loss was to the Pats in the Super Bowl). The line also hasn't moved which means that the big Vegas players are either staying away or waiting to see how things go. Vegas seems to think that the Eagles have a chance here, and they don't like being wrong...

AntoinCD 11-03-2010 10:28 AM

Apart from the Buffalo game, this is the first game I've felt confident about for the Patriots. So with that being said; get your money on the Browns

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 10:34 AM

The Browns are sneakily not terrible this season. Same goes for STL (who I've ridden to some very nice profits) and Detroit. Also going against KC at this point (overvalued). I think I'm staying away from the Eagles-Colts game as a bettor, but I'm definitely betting Detroit and Buffalo. Probably going to play the Bucs + the points and think Dallas is actually undervalued. Might put a single unit play on them + the big number.

gpngc 11-03-2010 10:59 AM

^St. Louis is actually just plain good.

I've been an awful predictor/handicapper this season but here goes...


Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa is the flavor of the week, and rightfully so, but Atlanta coming off a bye at home will be tough. I think the birds win big thanks to a huge day from Turner and some big plays on D.
Falcons 34, Bucs 14

Chicago @ Buffalo
Buffalo has lost two heartbreakers in a row and played basically 9+ quarters in the past two weeks. With 0 pass rush, this is exactly the type of matchup that the Bears will show well in.
Bears 35, Bills 21

New England @ Cleveland
Cleveland has been sneaky but New England is finally getting results from their young defenders. I can't see Colt McCoy outplaying a Belichick scheme, although the Browns D may be able to stifle the Pats ho-hum offense.
Patriots 19, Browns 6

NY Jets @ Detroit
Revis vs. Calvin is the main attraction, but two things from last week need to NOT happen again for the Jets to win big: Detroit's DL dominating and the Jets receivers playing horrible. Both are unlikely to be repeated. You can't expect anything from the RBs against the Jets D and even though everything else but the running game went great for Detroit last week, they still may have lost had Shannahan not put in Grossman.
Jets 24, Lions 7

New Orleans @ Carolina
I just think this is going to be a very weird game. The Saints executed at an extremely high level on Sunday night and got lucky with an uncharacteristic Heath Miller fumble.
Panthers 27, Saints 24

Miami @ Baltimore
The Dolphins are one of the best teams in the NFL right now with their three losses coming at the hands of New England, Pittsburgh, and the Jets. They'll get a good performance out of Henne this week and shock a Baltimore team that has a weak secondary and inconsistent offense.
Dolphins 35, Ravens 32

San Diego @ Houston
A loss to for either team would be devastating, if for different reasons. I just think if SD can eliminate the ridiculous special teams mistakes (Randy McMichael LOL), they can win any game. Their running game is improved and the Houston defense is beyond terrible. Schaub will struggle at times against the SD pass rush.
Chargers 35, Texans 24

Arizona @ Minnesota
This has to be the week Minnesota just goes bonkers and wins by 30... right?
Vikings 42, Cardinals 13

NY Giants @ Seattle

I cannot see Seattle competing with the Giants with all their injuries. Although the Giants could just decide not to show up... they do that sometimes and going out West can be troublesome. Still, when an injury to Tyler Polumbus is an issue, you know you have gigantic problems at left tackle. This is not the DL you want to be facing.
Giants 30, Seahawks 13

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia
I think Vick and Manning will give us a classic, but the Eagles will come up just short.
Colts 42, Eagles 38

Kansas City @ Oakland
I too am not a huge believer in Cassel/KC. But Oakland is probably the last team I'd want to see them play this week (for gambling purposes). If KC was in Denver or something I'd be all over DEN. So basically, I have no clue here but I like Oakland more.
Raiders 27, Chiefs 23

Dallas @ Green Bay
Dallas looks like they've quit but yes, they've been snowballing and all it takes is some luck and they'll have a good week. Not against a team that is hungry to show that it's elite.
Packers 35, Cowboys 24

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
I expect Tomlin to get his team ready to destroy the Bengals but for some reason I think Cinci is due for a good showing. They'll keep it close but fall short.
Steelers 27, Bengals 23

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 11:24 AM

I give you props for predicting all of the games, but handicapping has way less to do with predicted scores and way more to do with trends, what they've done this season, etc. There are some games where you should probably bet the over (i.e. Tampa/Atlanta) and others where the under is a nice play (New Orleans Carolina jumps out). For individual games, you need to look at history this season and history between the teams. What is the situation? How well does Indy do on short rest? Find the values, then bet them. There are teams that are undervalued and teams that are overvalued. Find the lines that look the juiciest, and bet them. You want to make the most mathematically logical plays.

For instance, the Lions-Jets game has some interesting trends. First of all, the Lions are 6-1 against the spread this season, while the Jets are 5-2. The Lions are also 3-0 ATS at home, while the Jets are 3-0 ATS on the road. Over the last 3 years, the Jets are 16-11 as a road team ATS, while the Lions are 11-15 ATS as a home team. Also look that the Jets are a very strong rushing team, while the Lions average giving up 150 yards on the ground. However, a lot of Detroit's passing numbers were with Shawn Hill at the helm. Stafford offers them a potentially explosive offensive output, even though the Jets D is very strong. A lot of games in the league have been decided by less than 7 points. Many are decided by 3 points. In this case, you play the math and take the 4 points.

thenewfeature06 11-03-2010 11:29 AM

Game of the week!?!? Chiefs v Raiders..

Should be interesting, we are playing hot right now and KC almost lost to the bills last week. Cassel won't be a problem for us in my eyes and our run defense could hold up, but the tandem of Charles/Jones is working. It is going to be a good regardless I think but I wouldn't be surprised if we lost by 17 or something with the way things are going this year.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 11:32 AM

Raiders-Chiefs in a meaningful game is certainly something, but I think there will be a lot of attention paid to the Eagles-Colts game, especially with Vick and perhaps DeSean Jackson back from injury.

thenewfeature06 11-03-2010 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsaza2358 (Post 2364037)
Raiders-Chiefs in a meaningful game is certainly something, but I think there will be a lot of attention paid to the Eagles-Colts game, especially with Vick and perhaps DeSean Jackson back from injury.

Haha agreed haven't had one recently. I was just hyping it up! I do like the Eagles game as far as good football too, and I would probably go Colts but it is almost a toss up with Vick coming back. They play different with him and if Djax is back Indys secondary could get torched.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 11:39 AM

The game will hinge on the Eagles pressuring Manning and covering/tackling, along with the ability for Peters/Dunlap at LT and Justice at RT to block Freeney/Mathis. Assuming Vick has time, I like the matchups against the Colts D. If he is pressured, it might be a long day.

As I noted above, the Eagles are actually favored in this game. Vegas is not a believer in Indy this week for whatever reason...

killxswitch 11-03-2010 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsaza2358 (Post 2364053)
The game will hinge on the Eagles pressuring Manning and covering/tackling, along with the ability for Peters/Dunlap at LT and Justice at RT to block Freeney/Mathis. Assuming Vick has time, I like the matchups against the Colts D. If he is pressured, it might be a long day.

As I noted above, the Eagles are actually favored in this game. Vegas is not a believer in Indy this week for whatever reason...

All Brandon Graham fans should watch for his big breakout game next Sunday vs. the Colts. RT Ryan Diem is having a terrible year and cannot handle anybody with speed. Meanwhile our best blocking TE left the game with a rib injury Monday night, so Diem will not get much help.

Vick could have a big day on the ground. The Colts D is fast but they overpursue all the time. If Vick can cut like I think he can he could run for serious yardage. I am starting him in fantasy for sure. Though if Session gets a good shot on him he might leave the game.

V.I.P 11-03-2010 11:45 AM

"Let's get smart, let's get healthy, and let's go eat some bird next week" - Raheem Morris Post Game Speech

<3

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch (Post 2364063)
All Brandon Graham fans should watch for his big breakout game next Sunday vs. the Colts. RT Ryan Diem is having a terrible year and cannot handle anybody with speed. Meanwhile our best blocking TE left the game with a rib injury Monday night, so Diem will not get much help.

Vick could have a big day on the ground. The Colts D is fast but they overpursue all the time. If Vick can cut like I think he can he could run for serious yardage. I am starting him in fantasy for sure. Though if Session gets a good shot on him he might leave the game.

Vick might run for serious yardage, but look more for McCoy on draws and screens/designed clearouts for quick hitters. I would have to think that the Colts are going to try to stop the running game first. Graham might have a good day, but the rook lost his job to a very strong vet in Juquae Parker. Parker + Cole have been pretty beastly so far. Graham is more of a situational rusher at this point.

lowlife 11-03-2010 11:57 AM

A good show-me game.

Atlanta's still going to own. Talib usually does a decent job against White, but he's on a different level this season. Them coming off a bye and it being at home doesn't help.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 11:58 AM

I think ATL should win this game, but Tampa is a solid team. The point spread seems pretty wide to me, actually. I think this is a decently close game.

Sniper 11-03-2010 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch (Post 2364063)
All Brandon Graham fans should watch for his big breakout game next Sunday vs. the Colts. RT Ryan Diem is having a terrible year and cannot handle anybody with speed. Meanwhile our best blocking TE left the game with a rib injury Monday night, so Diem will not get much help.

It doesn't really matter since McDersucksdicks thinks that putting an undersized DE with great quickness and pass-rush moves at DT is a genius idea.

**** you, McBagofdicks.

killxswitch 11-03-2010 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 2364099)
It doesn't really matter since McDersucksdicks thinks that putting an undersized DE with great quickness and pass-rush moves at DT is a genius idea.

**** you, McBagofdicks.

So they've been playing Graham at DT? On what, 3rd and 15+? What is with teams doing that this year? The Colts are doing that with Keyunta Dawson. The big difference is that he doesn't have great quickness or pass-rush moves, but the undersized DE part is dead on.

I don't get it. I think the Giants have been doing this too, or at least they were at the beginning of the season.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 12:21 PM

Graham is something like 5'10" and is very good using his speed and quickness, plus his height to gain leverage on the edge. His skill set at present does not allow him to work in the DT construct on any down and distance. It does not create space for any of the other DLinemen. It is a failed matchup.

Sniper 11-03-2010 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch (Post 2364105)
So they've been playing Graham at DT? On what, 3rd and 15+? What is with teams doing that this year? The Colts are doing that with Keyunta Dawson. The big difference is that he doesn't have great quickness or pass-rush moves, but the undersized DE part is dead on.

Basically every passing down. It's dumb. He's not a DT. He's not even a third-down DT. He's a ************* DE (Destroyer of Everything). Leave him on the outside. Graham's game is built for the outside.

killxswitch 11-03-2010 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sniper (Post 2364111)
Basically every passing down. It's dumb. He's not a DT. He's not even a third-down DT. He's a ************* DE (Destroyer of Everything). Leave him on the outside. Graham's game is built for the outside.

Graham was my favorite DE prospect in that class so this is disappointing to hear. I could understand using him as a stand up interior pass rusher on occasion if they wanted to move him around but as a hand-to-ground DT it seems kind of stupid to put him in there where he can't use his athleticism. I assume he just gets mauled by guards and centers?

Sniper 11-03-2010 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by killxswitch (Post 2364126)
Graham was my favorite DE prospect in that class so this is disappointing to hear. I could understand using him as a stand up interior pass rusher on occasion if they wanted to move him around but as a hand-to-ground DT it seems kind of stupid to put him in there where he can't use his athleticism. I assume he just gets mauled by guards and centers?

Obviously. They put him at DE against San Francisco and he....shockingly had a sweet TFL on Frank Gore and had a sack and strip of Alex Smith that Quintin Mikell scored on. I don't have a problem with him being the backup because Parker's played well, but seriously, play the man at his position.

V.I.P 11-03-2010 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsaza2358 (Post 2364087)
I think ATL should win this game, but Tampa is a solid team. The point spread seems pretty wide to me, actually. I think this is a decently close game.

Yeah, ATL coming off a bye and Matty Ice is like 18-1 at home in his career.

RealityCheck 11-03-2010 12:43 PM

Annihilation shall happen in Cleveland.

bsaza2358 11-03-2010 12:46 PM

Cleveland has shown itself to be scrappy so far. They can run to control the clock and protect McCoy. They should have all of their WR's back. Not a lock for a blowout.


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