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Shane P. Hallam 11-14-2010 09:32 AM

Predicting the BCS Bowls
 
I'm always intrigued by the BCS Bowl selection process, since it is similar to a draft. A lot goes in on deciding who is in or out, but I will be taking my guesses week to week.



This year, the selection is as follows:

Which Bowl loses #1 team (if applicable)

Which Bowl loses #2 team (if applicable)

Sugar Bowl

Orange Bowl

Fiesta Bowl



If this happens as it stands, my guess is this:

National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn

The following problem is that there are 5 teams for 4 spots. TCU, Boise, Ohio State, LSU, and Stanford. BCS Bowls can select whoever they want in the Top 14 of the BCS Standings.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Boise State (Selection #1)

Sugar Bowl: LSU (Selection #2) vs. Ohio State (Selection #3)

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. Pitt (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. TCU (Selection #4)



Here is where my questions come in:

1. Does the Rose Bowl want to keep Big Ten vs. Pac-10? If so, they can take Stanford. This would bump off Boise/TCU or Ohio State from the BCS however.

2. Does the Sugar Bowl take the more appealing name match-up with Ohio State vs. SEC or take Boise to face LSU?

3. How much appeal does TCU and Boise have? The fact is, not much as evidenced by TV Ratings. It would be tough to justify not putting one in a BCS Bowl (and both will likely make them,) but Boise could be the 2nd to last team selected because of it.

P-L 11-14-2010 12:37 PM

The Rose Bowl has to take a non-BCS team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion makes the National Championship game. If Oregon finishes undefeated, they can't take Stanford.

Shane P. Hallam 11-14-2010 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P-L (Post 2379898)
The Rose Bowl has to take a non-BCS team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion makes the National Championship game. If Oregon finishes undefeated, they can't take Stanford.

Are you sure that is true? With four at-large bids, only one non-BCS team is guaranteed a spot.

"3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria."


The Rose Bowl could take Stanford if Oregon makes it. All that matters is that TCU or Boise (whoever ends higher in the rankings,) is guaranteed a spot. So is Pitt. Therefore, the other 3 are up to the individual Bowls between the Top 15 teams in the BCS standings.

They could be Stanford, LSU, Ohio State

They could be Boise/TCU, LSU, Ohio State

Up to the Bowls.

iowatreat54 11-14-2010 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by P-L (Post 2379898)
The Rose Bowl has to take a non-BCS team if either the Pac-10 or Big Ten champion makes the National Championship game. If Oregon finishes undefeated, they can't take Stanford.

This is actually a common misconception.

If the Pac 10 or Big Ten winner make the NC game, the Rose bowl has to take a non-AQ team if they qualify once in the next 4 years. They do not necessarily need to take Boise/TCU if it happens this year, but it would probably be in their best interest to get it out of the way early.

Also, if Boise or TCU make the NC game vs. say Oregon, the Rose Bowl does not need to take the other non-AQ to replace them since one already is in the NC game.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/...ection-process

diabsoule 11-14-2010 08:09 PM

National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn
- It's hard not to predict this right now, however, both teams have a couple of tests left.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU (non-AQ)
- The Rose Bowl is faced with a tough choice on whether to invite TCU, Boise State, or local team and Pac-10 affiliate Stanford. Depending on how the rest of the season pans out Boise St. could very well jump TCU in the standings making them the more appealing invite. Right now, though, I have TCU penciled in.

Sugar Bowl: LSU (at large) vs. Boise State (at large)
- The Sugar Bowl could go with a familiar match up and invite Ohio State, however, Boise State would present an intriguing matchup. SEC powerhouse LSU, led by the mad hatter and gambler extraordinaire Les Miles, would go against the unpredictable Chris Peterson and giant killer Boise.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. Pitt (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)
- It's a damn shame that the Big East has to have a BCS invite.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. Ohio State (at large)
- An interested match and one that would be great to see as two great coaches face off.

andyjo672 11-14-2010 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diabsoule (Post 2381445)
National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn
- It's hard not to predict this right now, however, both teams have a couple of tests left.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU (non-AQ)
- The Rose Bowl is faced with a tough choice on whether to invite TCU, Boise State, or local team and Pac-10 affiliate Stanford. Depending on how the rest of the season pans out Boise St. could very well jump TCU in the standings making them the more appealing invite. Right now, though, I have TCU penciled in.

Sugar Bowl: LSU (at large) vs. Boise State (at large)
- The Sugar Bowl could go with a familiar match up and invite Ohio State, however, Boise State would present an intriguing matchup. SEC powerhouse LSU, led by the mad hatter and gambler extraordinaire Les Miles, would go against the unpredictable Chris Peterson and giant killer Boise.

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. Pitt (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)
- It's a damn shame that the Big East has to have a BCS invite.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. Ohio State (at large)
- An interested match and one that would be great to see as two great coaches face off.

If Oregon makes the title game, then the Rose Bowl must select the highest ranked non-AQ team. This is the first year of that rule, therefore Stanford would have no chance.

Shane P. Hallam 11-14-2010 09:22 PM

Either way, I think the Rose Bowl would opt for Boise (probably over TCU even as Boise is the "bigger name,") over Stanford.


I also don't imagine the Sugar Bowl would pass up on Ohio State and get the cash cow there for their game.

diabsoule 11-14-2010 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam (Post 2381643)
Either way, I think the Rose Bowl would opt for Boise (probably over TCU even as Boise is the "bigger name,") over Stanford.


I also don't imagine the Sugar Bowl would pass up on Ohio State and get the cash cow there for their game.

I don't think they will either but as an LSU fan I don't want to play Ohio State and would like to see someone new. Hell, I'd like for an SEC school to go to another BCS bowl outside of the Sugar.

iowatreat54 11-14-2010 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andyjo672 (Post 2381592)
If Oregon makes the title game, then the Rose Bowl must select the highest ranked non-AQ team. This is the first year of that rule, therefore Stanford would have no chance.

Again, as I said previously, this is wrong.

But the Rose Bowl probably would select a non-AQ team just to get it over with. And my guess as well would be Boise over TCU regardless of which is ranked higher.

SickwithIt1010 11-14-2010 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iowatreat54 (Post 2381923)
Again, as I said previously, this is wrong.

But the Rose Bowl probably would select a non-AQ team just to get it over with. And my guess as well would be Boise over TCU regardless of which is ranked higher.

I dont think it is a written rule that they HAVE to take the non-aq school, but i have heard and read that the rose bowl committee has stated they will take the highest non-aq if Oregon does play for the NC.

Ill find the link for you guys.

iowatreat54 11-14-2010 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SickwithIt1010 (Post 2381948)
I dont think it is a written rule that they HAVE to take the non-aq school, but i have heard and read that the rose bowl committee has stated they will take the highest non-aq if Oregon does play for the NC.

Ill find the link for you guys.

I would assume the Rose Bowl would want to take a non-AQ school this year to get it over with, and while they actually have good teams to choose from to still preserve ratings.

But the point is, the Rose Bowl has absolutely no requirement to take a non-AQ team this year. They are required to take one once in the next 4 years if a Pac 10 or Big 10 team is selected for the NC game and if a non-AQ team qualifies.

dannyz 11-14-2010 11:20 PM

Why do we have to go against the winner of the Big East? Why can't we go against like Ohio State or Wisconsin?

GB12 11-14-2010 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iowatreat54 (Post 2381958)
I would assume the Rose Bowl would want to take a non-AQ school this year to get it over with, and while they actually have good teams to choose from to still preserve ratings.

But the point is, the Rose Bowl has absolutely no requirement to take a non-AQ team this year. They are required to take one once in the next 4 years if a Pac 10 or Big 10 team is selected for the NC game and if a non-AQ team qualifies.

So what if they wait until the 4th year and no one qualifies? I think they have to take one the first year one qualifies.

iowatreat54 11-14-2010 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GB12 (Post 2381983)
So what if they wait until the 4th year and no one qualifies? I think they have to take one the first year one qualifies.

I was going to raise the same issue. But they are not required to take one the first year. From all accounts that have been reported to the general public, they have an agreement that they need to take one once in the next 4 years in that situation. As far as we know, there is no requirement for them to take one the first year other than that it would be one of the four years under this agreement.

Shane P. Hallam 11-14-2010 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dannyz (Post 2381972)
Why do we have to go against the winner of the Big East? Why can't we go against like Ohio State or Wisconsin?

Because the Fiesta Bowl picks last in the selection. Inevitably, no team will want the Big East winner, so the Big 12 winner is stuck with them.

49erNation85 11-15-2010 12:30 AM

Just go with LSU and Boise in one of the big bowls or even Bama and watch Boise run all over them .Then make them make a play off system < lets do it !

bearsfan_51 11-15-2010 01:59 AM

http://draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=42681

LizardState 11-15-2010 11:03 AM

Quote:

Hell, I'd like for an SEC school to go to another BCS bowl outside of the Sugar.
Cotton Bowl is almost always the SEC CG loser or SEC #3 vs. a Big 12 opponent.

Noticeable by their absence in these discussions: Texas, Florida, Notre Dame, even Oklahoma but they could be in the Big 12 CG..... speaking of which, wouldnt it be bitchin' if Nebraska won the Big 12 CG in sweet revenge for last yr in its goodbye season in the conference? I think they still have a shot.

LSU In the Sugar Bowl = an LSU home game, if they draw Ohio St. that would be the non-NC bowl game to watch.

Brent 11-26-2010 12:45 PM

National Championship: Oregon vs. Auburn

Wisconsin vs. TCU
Oklahoma State vs. Boise State
LSU vs. Stanford/Ohio State
Virginia Tech/Florida State (ACC winner) vs. Pitt/UConn/???? (Big East Winner)

I think that would be the most entertaining match-ups.

iBoldin 11-26-2010 01:31 PM

Looks as if WVU is going to beat Pittsburgh, up 28-10 in the late 3rd quarter. Which would give them a 4-2 record and a share of the Big East lead with Pittsburgh and UConn. Albeit they're in the lead but UConn just has to theoretically win their next two games and they're in as they beat WVU this year.

I feel like Homer Simpson when he dreams of looking at Ned Flander's ass at the skiing mountain when I think of Connecticut being in a BCS Bowl game. They'd get absolutely torn apart by Nebraska, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State because no one in their right mind would take UConn.

EDIT - I'm also hoping NCSU doesn't take the Atlantic Division because the last thing we need is North Carolina State and Connecticut in the BCS Bowl, leaving out a team like Stanford potentially.

boknows34 11-26-2010 04:35 PM

1. The top two teams in the final BCS Standings will be placed in the National Championship Game ("NCG").

2. Unless they qualify to play in the NCG, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:

Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl

3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.

For the games of January 2011 through 2014, the first year the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG and a team from the non-AQ group is an automatic qualifier, that non-AQ team will play in the Rose Bowl.

A bowl choosing a replacement team may not select any of the following:

A. A team in the NCG;
B. The host team for another BCS Bowl;
C. When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents.

4. After steps No. 1, 2 and 3 have been completed, any bowl with an unfilled slot shall select a team from the automatic qualifiers and/or at-large teams in the following order for the games played in 2007 through 2010:


January 2011 games: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta


January 2012 games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange


January 2013 games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange


January 2014 games: Orange, Sugar, Fiesta

All teams earning automatic berths must be selected.



http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

So if its Oregon v Auburn in the NCG then the highest ranked non AQ team (TCU or Boise St) will be an automatic choice for the Jan 2011 Rose Bowl. It only applies to the FIRST year a PAC 10/12 or Big 10 team plays in the NCG and the Rose Bowl do not have a choice within the 4-year window. Sorry iowatreat but andyjo appears to be correct.

diabsoule 11-26-2010 05:35 PM

Here are my final predictions:

Championship Game
Oregon vs. Auburn

Rose Bowl
Boise State vs. Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. TCU

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. UConn

Smooth Criminal 11-26-2010 05:43 PM

National Championship
Auburn vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Boise State

Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. OSU

Orange Bowl
TCU vs VT

Fiesta Bowl
WVU vs. Nebraska

Only thing I can think of is possibly flipping TCU and OSU. I don't think anyone will pick Stanford over any of the at larges selected. It's a shame the Big East Champ has to be let in, they're a joke. I hope it's UConn, who for reference lost bad to Michigan.

diabsoule 11-26-2010 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smooth Criminal (Post 2398563)
National Championship
Auburn vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Boise State

Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. OSU

Orange Bowl
TCU vs VT

Fiesta Bowl
WVU vs. Nebraska

Only thing I can think of is possibly flipping TCU and OSU. I don't think anyone will pick Stanford over any of the at larges selected. It's a shame the Big East Champ has to be let in, they're a joke. I hope it's UConn, who for reference lost bad to Michigan.

I wish Stanford could get in over the Big East champ? Plus no one is talking about a potential 11-1 Michigan State team being left out. They'll likely end up in the Capitol One Bowl vs. Alabama.

Shane P. Hallam 11-27-2010 07:04 AM

Stanford now in over Boise.


National Championship: #1 Oregon vs. #2 Auburn

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Stanford (Selection #1)

Sugar Bowl: LSU (Selection #2) vs. Ohio State (Selection #3)

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (AQ as Big 12 winner) vs. UConn (AQ as Big East Winner, selection #5)

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech (AQ as ACC Winner) vs. TCU (Selection #4)


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