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-   -   Luke Kuechly: Why Not a Top 6 Pick? (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=51267)

bigbuc 02-27-2012 04:57 PM

Luke Kuechly: Why Not a Top 6 Pick?
 
Ok with his workout today why isn't this guy a top 6 pick? You'll come at me and say because he has no rush skills? Because he's a 4/3 MLB or a 3/4 ILB. Because he just make tackles... right?

They say the same things about Willis, Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher.

Kuechly Willis Urlacher


40 - 4.58 4.51 4.56
3 cone - 6.92 7.23 ?
20 yard - 4.12 4.46 4.19
Bench - 27 22 27
Vert - 38 39 34
Broad - 123 inch 119 122


Up against two of the best MLB in the league he's stands up or bests them. Plus everyone say this guy has the eyes for the game... I don't get it. Because if the drafts that Willis and Urlacher were in had a do over both those guys would be top 5 picks.

vidae 02-27-2012 04:59 PM

Positional value. It really is that simple.

SuperPacker 02-27-2012 05:01 PM

Where were Urlacher and Willis drafted? And its probably because teams value pass rushers and pass defenders over linebackers.

A Perfect Score 02-27-2012 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae (Post 2876940)
Positional value. It really is that simple.

Bingo. Kuechly is another one of those guys, not unlike DeCastro, who gets done in by the position he plays. Both of these guys are absolutely elite talents at the position they play, but unfortunately that position is just of lesser value to NFL teams then QB, LT, DE, etc.

toonsterwu 02-27-2012 05:02 PM

Vidae's fairly spot on with that. There's a reason that Urlacher was drafted more as an OLB (that's where the Bears were initially going to use him until ... um ... I want to say Barry Minter, but my memory could be off, got hurt), and Willis "fell" to 11. While the value of a smart, athletic inside backer/mike backer has grown in recent years, it's still viewed as a position where you can find guys later.

bigbuc 02-27-2012 05:04 PM

I guess what I'm trying to say is when players like Willis, Lewis or Urlacher come out all the teams that pass on them say the same thing two years later. That he was just a tackler, but that every team that passed also wishes they could go back and draft them. Why not just draft them at 5 or 6 or 7 and have a great LB for 10 plus years.

vidae 02-27-2012 05:06 PM

I don't know that Kuechly will have the kind of impact that those guys have had, but when you're picking top 6 you generally have a lot of needs and picking an ILB that high when you have bigger needs isn't a great idea. LT/QB/WR/DE are viewed as being more important for a reason.

And don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Kuechly, and we have a need opposite DJ at ILB, but even then I'd have a problem taking him 11th over NT/OT. And this is coming from someone who LOVES Kuech and what he can bring to the table.

FUNBUNCHER 02-27-2012 05:07 PM

It's not impossible that some team falls in love with Kuechly and truly believes he's the next great Mike to enter the NFL at takes him top 10, but as others have said, it's the same reason RBs have fallen out of favor high in the first round.

Babylon 02-27-2012 05:07 PM

Two reasons off the top of my head would be Aaron Curry and AJ Hawk. It's mostly a positional thing and you'd like to see a guy be able to get to the QB.

My guess is he went from being a top 20 pick to a top dozen pick after this weekend but he may slide to the Eagles/Chargers part of the draft.

A Perfect Score 02-27-2012 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbuc (Post 2876951)
I guess what I'm trying to say is when players like Willis, Lewis or Urlacher come out all the teams that pass on them say the same thing two years later. That he was just a tackler, but that every team that passed also wishes they could go back and draft them. Why not just draft them at 5 or 6 or 7 and have a great LB for 10 plus years.

Well Ray Lewis wasn't drafted until Pick 26, so I don't think it's fair to lump him in with Urlacher or Willis, both of whom went Top 11. Willis ran a 4.37, which is absolutely astronomical all things considered. I think if he had of ran a 4.6, you would have seen him fall into the 15-20 range Kuechly is predicted for.

OSUGiants17 02-27-2012 05:08 PM

Because he needs to fall to 32 and play for the giants!

PossibleCabbage 02-27-2012 05:10 PM

The same reason David DeCastro isn't a top 6 pick: non-pass rushing LBs and interior linemen just aren't worth as much as other positions, since they don't improve your team as much as other positions.

vidae 02-27-2012 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OSUGiants17 (Post 2876964)
Because he needs to fall to 32 and play for the giants!

I hope you guys get him! I'd love to see him on the Giants working behind that DL.

Chargerfn909 02-27-2012 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage (Post 2876968)
The same reason David DeCastro isn't a top 6 pick: non-pass rushing LBs and interior linemen just aren't worth as much as other positions, since they don't improve your team as much as other positions.

Hard to really say that. If you are looking at a potential GREAT at ILB/MLB/OG/C, I believe they should be tossed into the category of game changers. In fact, i'd venture to say both Kuechly and DeCastro would be safer than other that will be drafted top 5-10. Instincts are instincts and i'd say both those men are both two of the most instinctive pure football players in the draft.

bigbuc 02-27-2012 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Perfect Score (Post 2876961)
Well Ray Lewis wasn't drafted until Pick 26, so I don't think it's fair to lump him in with Urlacher or Willis, both of whom went Top 11. Willis ran a 4.37, which is absolutely astronomical all things considered. I think if he had of ran a 4.6, you would have seen him fall into the 15-20 range Kuechly is predicted for.

Dude did you just make up that number out of thin air? Willis ran in the 4.5's... I wouldn't take his pro day time.

A Perfect Score 02-27-2012 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbuc (Post 2876990)
Dude did you just make up that number out of thin air? Willis ran in the 4.5's no 4.3 for him

"Linebacker Patrick Willis wowed scouts with a 4.37 40-yard dash during Mississippi's Pro Day. Willis, already a first round lock, could see his stock rise even further after this performance. He'll be given serious consideration by some teams in the top ten spots on draft day."

http://www.footballsfuture.com/news/...yard-dash.html

Literally the first page after I typed "Patrick Willis 40 time" into Google.

vidae 02-27-2012 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chargerfn909 (Post 2876985)
Hard to really say that. If you are looking at a potential GREAT at ILB/MLB/OG/C, I believe they should be tossed into the category of game changers. In fact, i'd venture to say both Kuechly and DeCastro would be safer than other that will be drafted top 5-10. Instincts are instincts and i'd say both those men are both two of the most instinctive pure football players in the draft.

It seems to be less of an issue now because of the rookie wage scale, but most people just don't agree with that.

I'm not saying you're wrong, just that people don't see it that way.

SuperPacker 02-27-2012 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Perfect Score (Post 2876993)
"Linebacker Patrick Willis wowed scouts with a 4.37 40-yard dash during Mississippi's Pro Day. Willis, already a first round lock, could see his stock rise even further after this performance. He'll be given serious consideration by some teams in the top ten spots on draft day."

http://www.footballsfuture.com/news/...yard-dash.html

Literally the first page after I typed "Patrick Willis 40 time" into Google.

You just got owned bigbuc ;)

keylime_5 02-27-2012 05:29 PM

you don't draft middle linebackers that high, especially in today's NFL. The only linebackers who go top 10 are ones who can rush the passer now. No more AJ Hawk, Aaron Curry types are gonna go that high. Plus it's not like Kuechly doesn't have some questions, he isn't the perfect player. He's not a guy you can put in man coverage with some of these tight ends and running backs. You can put him in zone coverage and he'll excel, but he's not a Patrick Willis or Brian Urlacher type.

PossibleCabbage 02-27-2012 05:42 PM

In the last dozen drafts, only three non-pass rushing linebackers have been taken in the top 6: Aaron Curry, A.J. Hawk, LaVar Arrington. None of them were particularly great picks.

Kuechly is not a once-in-a-decade kind of prospect; even Urlacher lasted to pick #9, Patrick Willis lasted to pick #11, and Ray Lewis lasted to pick #26.

It's not like the old salary system (or lack thereof) made people less likely to take non-pass-rushing LBs high, since those guys are generally perceived to be "safe" picks and the problem with the old salary scale was the financial risk involved in taking a player high who has a good chance to be a bust.

SenorGato 02-27-2012 05:43 PM

He's a MLB/ILB. If Patrick Willis couldn't crack top ten then there's no chance in hell...Solid player though.

Caulibflower 02-27-2012 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Babylon (Post 2876960)
Two reasons off the top of my head would be Aaron Curry and AJ Hawk. It's mostly a positional thing and you'd like to see a guy be able to get to the QB.

My guess is he went from being a top 20 pick to a top dozen pick after this weekend but he may slide to the Eagles/Chargers part of the draft.

Those were both 4-3 OLBs, though, weren't they? That's probably the "least important" position on a defense, but a MLB is often the defensive signal-caller and ever team would definitely want to have a real playmaker in the middle of the field. I mean, Patrick Willis is a freak and everyone knew it before he was drafted, and if that draft was done over people would be calling him a good pick if he'd been picked 2nd or 3rd overall. People want to say that when you're picking top-10 you must have needs at these "more important" positions, but I think the reality is that those teams are most likely lacking in talent across the board. So in my humble opinion, if you see an elite player on the board and know he'll play on your team, you just take him. If you think Kuechly is an "elite" talent and you don't already have a stud MLB... I wouldn't want to get caught playing the "Well... we really need a wideout..." game. If you think he's Patrick Willis or Brian Urlacher, you freaking take him, unless you think the wideout you're looking at is a Randy Moss or Larry Fitzgerald. Or whatever position. Ya'll know what I'm saying. Go for the talent. You're never going to turn around your team with one pick, excepting perhaps a truly transcendent talent like John Elway. Or maybe even Cam Newton last year. Who knows yet.

Babylon 02-27-2012 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keylime_5 (Post 2877006)
you don't draft middle linebackers that high, especially in today's NFL. The only linebackers who go top 10 are ones who can rush the passer now. No more AJ Hawk, Aaron Curry types are gonna go that high. Plus it's not like Kuechly doesn't have some questions, he isn't the perfect player. He's not a guy you can put in man coverage with some of these tight ends and running backs. You can put him in zone coverage and he'll excel, but he's not a Patrick Willis or Brian Urlacher type.

I'll take my chances with him covering every TE in the league not named Gronkowski and Graham. I guess that 4.5 today didnt convince everyone.

Overrall i agree you dont take ILBs that high.

bigbuc 02-27-2012 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2877001)
You just got owned bigbuc ;)

When it happens it happens... Can't knock the hustle.

bigbuc 02-27-2012 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by keylime_5 (Post 2877006)
you don't draft middle linebackers that high, but he's not a Patrick Willis or Brian Urlacher type.


How can you say that when he tested as good or better than both of them? Also everyone said the same thing about Kuechly that he's great with his eyes, knows what the play is before the team runs it...


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