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Asteinebach 04-22-2012 09:06 AM

2012 Draft Busts
 
I'm interested to see who you guys think will be this years class of busts. History has proven that in weaker classes, you inevitably get more busts. In stronger classes, you get significant busts. Here's my opinion:

Andrew Luck
Dontari Poe
Michael Floyd
Ryan Tannehill
Stephon Gilmore
Quinton Coples

Bixby (Thumper) 04-22-2012 09:26 AM

Significant draft busts? Hmm... I've been trying to see the best in most prospects lately and I hate to say that a guy is going to fall on his face before I see what situation he lands in but I'll give it a shot.

Busts:
RGIII
-Not a bust in the sense that he was completely worthless but a bust in the sense that he isn't what he is made out to be. IMO he's got skittish qualities as a pocket passer and he loses accuracy when he starts getting hit, he's Vick like in that aspect IMO but it was masked by Baylor's offense. And I think he takes too much unnecessary punishment which is especially concerning because of his injury history. He doesn't have the presence of Cam Newton nor is he as physically imposing; people saying they like RGIII because of what Newton did are about to get whipsawed. Plus he's not going to get much help in Washington and Shanny might be on a short leash if the ship doesn't right soon.

Matt Kalil:
Very overrated; I haven't liked him much at all throughout this entire process. Watching USC I just didn't see an elite left tackle. He played lazy and disinterested at times. He isn't really flexible and he's not the same sort of athlete Tyron Smith was. He's not as strong or as mean as Jake Long. Nor does he have the foot quickness of Joe Thomas. Just comparing him to other top OT prospects, he falls short IMO. I think people just hype him up because he "kept Smith at RT", played at a big school, tested well and has a recognizable name. I prefer Reiff and I think the Vikings would be making a mistake if they took Kalil.

Chandler Jones:
-I think the people that "love" Chandler Jones are doing it just to compensate for missing on JPP. I don't see what there is to love. He has long arms, cool.

Melvin Ingram:
-Ingram seemed to be an "in the right spot" player last year IMO. Personally I think Devin Taylor and Clowney are better prospects than Ingram and he benefited from playing next to them, especially Clowney. I don't think he's got the length or quickness to get to the corner and consistently beat NFL offensive tackles, he is at his best rushing the passer when he is playing against interior offensive linemen who can't match his quickness. I think he'd be best utilized in a 3-4 defense where the coordinator can get creative with him. I think he has a pretty good range of movement for such a big guy and he seems pretty coordinated when moving backwards. And being in a 3-4 where he's lined up a little wider gives him better angles to the QB and it adds a little bit of unpredictability. I think he could fit as a 3-4 ILB as well ala Bruschi and Adalius Thomas. I don't think he'll amount to much if you limit him to a 4-3 DE spot, because he'll be too easliy re-routed and directed by nfl offensive linemen. And just looking at the draft order, it looks like Ingram is going to go to a 4-3 team.

Those are my 4 right now. That list could grow depending of which players land where. I was thisclose to putting Mark Barron there and if he goes top 20, I'm adding him to this list no matter where he ends up.

SuperPacker 04-22-2012 09:46 AM

Dontari Poe, Fletcher Cox and Melvin Ingram are all going to bust.

NorrinRadd12 04-22-2012 10:24 AM

Claiborne
Richardson
Coples
Poe
Ingram

Haven't looked at the back half of the 1st round yet

Fred Savage 04-22-2012 10:30 AM

RGIII- Think he is way overvalued. Played in the Big 12. Was a late first round pick until he put up amazing combine numbers, then all of a sudden he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The Washington organization has been a sewer for decades.

Stephon Gilmore- From what I have seen of him, he has never impressed me. While doing my youtube scouting, he doesn't impress me. It seems like he is always near the play, or in the frame but never actually doing anything. Again, has a good combine and all of a sudden he is can't miss.

Melvin Ingram- Jack of all nothings, the versatility hype scares me, would rather a defensive end/rush backer do one thing exceptionally well than a lot of things average.

Coples- Just a gut feeling, I saw him interviewed on ESPN and he just looks like a quitter/screw up

SuperPacker 04-22-2012 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred Savage (Post 2960695)
RGIII- Think he is way overvalued. Played in the Big 12. Was a late first round pick until he put up amazing combine numbers, then all of a sudden he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The Washington organization has been a sewer for decades.

Stephon Gilmore- From what I have seen of him, he has never impressed me. While doing my youtube scouting, he doesn't impress me. It seems like he is always near the play, or in the frame but never actually doing anything. Again, has a good combine and all of a sudden he is can't miss.

That is so false its unbelievable.

EDIT: I want to add Fletcher Cox to my list.

Asteinebach 04-22-2012 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bixby (Post 2960647)
I hate to say that a guy is going to fall on his face before I see what situation he lands in

That is exactly the reason I put Andrew Luck on this list. Luck is a very good QB, the very same way that Tim Couch was a very good QB. Both were consensus #1 overall picks without dispute.

The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl. For all intents and purposes, let's focus only on the offense. You have 1 WR in Reggie Wayne who is now past his prime. Then you have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that have both benefited greatly from having Peyton throwing balls to them. At tight end, they are currently listing Dallas Clarke as the 3rd TE on the team. They have no weapons there. Joseph Addai is shopping his options in free agency. They have no running game. Donald Brown really hasn't lived up to his 1st round hype. And last, but not least, the offensive line. Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are aging veterans. Quinn Ojinnaka was signed away by St. Louis, and Jeff Linkenbach is their only remaining OT. They are in a very very bad way.

This is a no-win situation for Luck. And his career may be doomed just based on the talent around him being so bad.

Fred Savage 04-22-2012 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperPacker (Post 2960698)
That is so false its unbelievable.

Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all). He played in the Big 12. A conference that plays zero D, offenses put up guady numbers, has produced zero quality QB's in the last 10 years, (jury is still out on Freeman and Bradford, they could easly debunk that point this year). Your gonna be hard pressed to argue that Washington has been anything but a crap organization over the last 10 years.

vidae 04-22-2012 11:26 AM

This thread is three years too early.

T-RICH49 04-22-2012 11:28 AM

Brockers
Jeffery
Reiff
Coples
Ingram

papageorgio 04-22-2012 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred Savage (Post 2960721)
Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all). He played in the Big 12. A conference that plays zero D, offenses put up guady numbers, has produced zero quality QB's in the last 10 years, (jury is still out on Freeman and Bradford, they could easly debunk that point this year). Your gonna be hard pressed to argue that Washington has been anything but a crap organization over the last 10 years.

If you watch what both Luck and Griffin can do on the football field you can see that in no catergory Luck is better than Griffin.

Griffin has a better arm,faster,more accurate and isnt a coward when it comes to throwing deep.

Luck is captain check down and will be a future chad pennington.

JRTPlaya21 04-22-2012 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred Savage (Post 2960721)
Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all). He played in the Big 12. A conference that plays zero D, offenses put up guady numbers, has produced zero quality QB's in the last 10 years, (jury is still out on Freeman and Bradford, they could easly debunk that point this year). Your gonna be hard pressed to argue that Washington has been anything but a crap organization over the last 10 years.

Lol we made the playoffs in 2007 and RG3 was getting first round hype in like the top 10 when he was making his Heisman push....

Fred Savage 04-22-2012 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRTPlaya21 (Post 2960730)
Lol we made the playoffs in 2007 and RG3 was getting first round hype in like the top 10 when he was making his Heisman push....

Lol, wow one playoff appearance means an organization as a whole is healthy. I saw many mocks where Griffin was in the late first, now he is the greastes player ever. Luck is way better.

SuperPacker 04-22-2012 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fred Savage (Post 2133432)
Go on... What part of that is false, all seems like fact to me. Look up mocks in Dec./Jan. RGIII was usually in the late first (if in the first at all).

http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/...ad.php?t=49390

I had Griffin going 2nd in November...

cmarq83 04-22-2012 11:46 AM

My best guesses would be

Poe
Gilmore
Tannehill
Adams
Z. Brown
Wright
Perry

phlysac 04-22-2012 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papageorgio (Post 2960728)
Luck is captain check down and will be a future chad pennington.

Learn something about the offense that Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman/David Shaw run before you call a QB in it "captain checkdown."

tjsunstein 04-22-2012 01:43 PM

Melvin Ingram
Ryan Tannehill
Courtney Upshaw
One of the WR, maybe Stephen Hill but it's too dependent on where they land ultimately.

Lil Quip 04-22-2012 01:44 PM

I really like the Fletcher Cox choice. A couple months ago he was a borderline first rounder, now he is rumoured to be top ten mthaaterial. I think his chances are magnified by the fact that there are a bunch of flawed 43 ut after him, where one will go to the right place and flourish aka reyes still or worthy.

I find it funny that people compare a qb playing like pennington as a bust. Rooting for the team that played him for a lion share of his career, he was a good qb for a long time. Granted he was never elite, but he was in no way a bust like akilimith cade mcnown tim couch etc.

I think any of the corners sans kirkpatrick have good bust potential. I give kirkpatrick a pass as I think he may not be a great corner but get second life as a safety like jenkins and rolle before him. That is assuming his troubles with the law are not foreshadowing.

I don't like calling the late first pass rushers as thy have inherent risk which makes them not turning out a loaded trait. That being said, if poe coples or ingram go really high, yes they can be busts.

TaylorMaysBrokeMyHeart 04-22-2012 01:53 PM

Chandler Jones
Whitney Mercilus
Shea McClellin
Harrison Smith
Mike Adams
Dre Kirkpatrick

tjsunstein 04-22-2012 01:58 PM

I like the Mercilus pick, too.

holt_bruce81 04-22-2012 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmarq83 (Post 2960738)
My best guesses would be

Poe
Gilmore
Tannehill
Adams
Z. Brown
Wright
Perry

I like this list, the only person I wouldn't have on there would be Wright.

Diehard 04-22-2012 02:18 PM

Quinton Coples
Ryan Tannehill
Dontari Poe
Mike Adams
Devon Still
Janoris Jenkins
Alshon Jeffery

Bulldogs 04-22-2012 02:24 PM

Justin Blackmon
Matt Kalil
Fletcher Cox
Quinton Coples

papageorgio 04-22-2012 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phlysac (Post 2960811)
Learn something about the offense that Jim Harbaugh/Greg Roman/David Shaw run before you call a QB in it "captain checkdown."

Alex Smith is another captain check down. Next year the 49ers are gonna be figured out and not make the playoffs.

indyfan1985 04-22-2012 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by papageorgio (Post 2960728)
If you watch what both Luck and Griffin can do on the football field you can see that in no catergory Luck is better than Griffin.

Griffin has a better arm,faster,more accurate and isnt a coward when it comes to throwing deep.

Luck is captain check down and will be a future chad pennington.

Do you know who he had at WR to work with? That may have played into him not going deep as much as RG3 just FYI.


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