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-   -   Definite 1st Round Grades? (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54175)

Matthew Jones 10-18-2012 07:54 AM

Definite 1st Round Grades?
 
Which prospects do you believe have secured first-round grades as a prospect? Here are the ones I'm comfortable enough to assign one to:
  1. QB Matt Barkley, Southern California
  2. QB Aaron Murray, Georgia*
  3. QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
  4. WR Keenan Allen, California*
  5. WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee*
  6. WR Robert Woods, Southern California*
  7. OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M*
  8. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan*
  9. DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
  10. DE Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana St.*
  11. DE Bjoern Werner, Florida St.*
  12. LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia*
  13. LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
  14. CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi St.
  15. CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
  16. CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida St.*
  17. FS T.J. McDonald, Southern California*
  18. FS Eric Reid, Louisiana St.*

Aside from that, a bunch of prospects on the fringes include Tyler Eifert, Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack, Sam Montgomery, etc.

bucfan12 10-18-2012 02:00 PM

I'm really not impressed with Taylor Lewan. I think he's vastly overrated.

Jonathon Hankins is missing from this list.

MassNole 10-18-2012 02:27 PM

Only thing with Xavier Rhodes is his perceived lack of speed.

vidae 10-18-2012 02:36 PM

Surprised to see Aaron Murray on there.

AntoinCD 10-18-2012 02:37 PM

I wouldn't be overly confident in putting Murray or McDonald as first round grades and I think Reid is a fringe guy.

I would put Tyler Wilson, Montgomery, Jones, Hankins, Warmack and Eifert as definites and get rid of the 3 above

Edit: I am also not sure I would definitely have Robert Woods as a first round talent

wicket 10-18-2012 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matthew Jones (Post 3154356)
Which prospects do you believe have secured first-round grades as a prospect? Here are the ones I'm comfortable enough to assign one to:
  1. QB Matt Barkley, Southern California
  2. QB Aaron Murray, Georgia*
  3. QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
  4. WR Keenan Allen, California*
  5. WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee*
  6. WR Robert Woods, Southern California*
  7. OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M*
  8. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan*
  9. DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
  10. DE Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana St.*
  11. DE Bjoern Werner, Florida St.*
  12. LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia*
  13. LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
  14. CB Johnthan Banks, Mississippi St.
  15. CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
  16. CB Xavier Rhodes, Florida St.*
  17. FS T.J. McDonald, Southern California*
  18. FS Eric Reid, Louisiana St.*

Aside from that, a bunch of prospects on the fringes include Tyler Eifert, Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack, Sam Montgomery, etc.

add jones, warmack, montgomery and damontre moore for me, remove lewan, jones and rhodes

LonghornsLegend 10-18-2012 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AntoinCD (Post 3154656)
I wouldn't be overly confident in putting Murray or McDonald as first round grades and I think Reid is a fringe guy.

I would put Tyler Wilson, Montgomery, Jones, Hankins, Warmack and Eifert as definites and get rid of the 3 above

Edit: I am also not sure I would definitely have Robert Woods as a first round talent

Fringe 1st round? That's not very likely but I sure would love if he had late 1st round early 2nd round value come draft time.

Cigaro 10-18-2012 03:14 PM

Completely disagree on Murray. There will be many questions about his height, and he hasn't been dominant in college, the usual thing that would help alleviate such concerns. He is a very fringe first rounder at best, IMO.

Docta 10-18-2012 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wicket (Post 3154660)
add jones, warmack, montgomery and damontre moore for me, remove lewan, jones and rhodes

Remove Jarvis Jones?...

Imbecile.

Babylon 10-18-2012 03:30 PM

Out

Aaron Murray
T.J. McDonald

In

Tyler Eifert
Jonathon Hankins
Chance Womack
Barrett Jones

Witten4HOF 10-18-2012 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MassNole (Post 3154643)
Only thing with Xavier Rhodes is his perceived lack of speed.

I think Rhodes will end up running in the high 4.4's which isn't terrible, I think he might be a hair slow in the three cone because he is so high cut but that shouldn't effect his stock. Prototypical press corner or free safety, if he comes out of the season healthy he will be a top 40 pick imo.

Docta 10-18-2012 04:18 PM

And I actually think Woods could slip to the 2nd. Stock's dropping.

jrdrylie 10-18-2012 04:29 PM

Aaron Murray is definitely not a first-round lock. He is often compared to Drew Brees, who went in the second. I think those comparisons are a bit kind to Murray. I view him more as a late second.

Also, a lot of people are viewing Tyler Wilson as a first round lock. Maybe I'm alone, but part of me thinks GMs are going to look at the mess that is Arkansas and wonder where the leadership from Wilson was. Concussions could also be an issue and I could definitely see him dropping quite a bit.

MassNole 10-18-2012 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Witten4HOF (Post 3154735)
I think Rhodes will end up running in the high 4.4's which isn't terrible, I think he might be a hair slow in the three cone because he is so high cut but that shouldn't effect his stock. Prototypical press corner or free safety, if he comes out of the season healthy he will be a top 40 pick imo.

He'll be lucky to top out at 4.5, but he has game speed which is more important than t-shirt and shorts speed. I'll never understand the logic of timing players in the 40 without pads on, at least a helmet and shoulder pads.

No one at FSU expects him back in 2013, it is doubtful he would have been back in 2012 if not for tweaking his knee in the bowl game.

PeterMurray 10-19-2012 10:22 AM

When you say someone has absolutely locked in a first round grade, that is saying quite a bit when you factor in all that can change between now and April. From your list I would say,
Out: Murray, Rhodes, McDonald, Reid
In: Warmack, Montgomery, Hankins

Matthew Jones 10-19-2012 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrdrylie (Post 3154759)
Aaron Murray is definitely not a first-round lock. He is often compared to Drew Brees, who went in the second. I think those comparisons are a bit kind to Murray. I view him more as a late second.

Also, a lot of people are viewing Tyler Wilson as a first round lock. Maybe I'm alone, but part of me thinks GMs are going to look at the mess that is Arkansas and wonder where the leadership from Wilson was. Concussions could also be an issue and I could definitely see him dropping quite a bit.

A lot of my criticism has to do with his inconsistent mechanics and the Bobby Petrino offense he put up his big numbers in (which was absolutely loaded with Wright, Childs, Adams, and Cobi Hamilton.) I actually thought, strictly based on our evaluations of them as prospects, Brian Brohm was better.

princefielder28 10-19-2012 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae (Post 3154655)
Surprised to see Aaron Murray on there.

Murray is closer to a 3rd round prospect than a 1st rounder...he simply hasn't taken that next step yet

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend (Post 3154662)
Fringe 1st round? That's not very likely but I sure would love if he had late 1st round early 2nd round value come draft time.

Reid is more of an in-the-box safety and his skills translating as a FS to the NFL may not be there...if that's how he's perceived by teams that'll push down his value, maybe out of the 1st

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docta (Post 3154753)
And I actually think Woods could slip to the 2nd. Stock's dropping.

Woods is a very good receiver, but he could end up being the 4th best receiver, depending on who declares, and considering he doesn't have any physical traits that WOW anyone, slipping out of the first makes sense or is a possibility.

princefielder28 10-19-2012 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bucfan12 (Post 3154611)
I'm really not impressed with Taylor Lewan. I think he's vastly overrated.

Jonathon Hankins is missing from this list.

I don't see it with Lewan either. He could find his way towards the bottom of round one but I don't see him being a lock. I know it was just the first game but I can't get the struggles against Alabama out of my head with him.

I agree Hankins should on this list...after Star he's gonna be the most coveted DT on the board

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrdrylie (Post 3154759)
Also, a lot of people are viewing Tyler Wilson as a first round lock. Maybe I'm alone, but part of me thinks GMs are going to look at the mess that is Arkansas and wonder where the leadership from Wilson was. Concussions could also be an issue and I could definitely see him dropping quite a bit.


If GMs question Wilson on the mess at Arkansas and place any blame on him that would be absurd. It's not Tyler's fault that Coach Petrino was screwing around with an intern or whatever she was, and then the chaos that followed with it.

Shane P. Hallam 10-19-2012 11:06 AM

From your list, the only guys I think are LOCKS for the first (barring injury/arrest) are:
  1. QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
  2. WR Robert Woods, Southern California*
  3. DT Star Lotulelei, Utah
  4. DE Barkevious Mingo, Louisiana St.*
  5. LB Jarvis Jones, Georgia*
  6. LB Manti Te'o, Notre Dame
  7. CB Dee Milliner, Alabama
  8. FS Eric Reid, Louisiana St.
  9. DE Sam Montgomery, Louisiana St.

I'm not 100% on Reid either, but think someone would take him.


Also doesn't mean these guys are tops at their position (though most are). Someone like Woods is a lock for production/pedigree/combine #s, while I COULD see Allen/Hunter go early 2nd if they have a bad offseason.

AcheTen (Thumper) 10-23-2012 12:14 AM

Michael Mauti?

wicket 10-23-2012 04:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Docta (Post 3154717)
Remove Jarvis Jones?...

Imbecile.

health issues could cause him to drop easily

georgiafan 10-23-2012 07:32 AM

Murray shoudnt be a 1st round lock

Shane P. Hallam 10-23-2012 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by georgiafan (Post 3161261)
Murray shoudnt be a 1st round lock

He isn't. He isn't a 2nd round lock even unfortunately, though I still like him.

georgiafan 10-23-2012 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam (Post 3161263)
He isn't. He isn't a 2nd round lock even unfortunately, though I still like him.

This weeks game is huge for him bc he has yet to be a good team in his career and always piles on stats vs the weak teams. I think he needs to come back for his senior year but I could be biased.

Matthew Jones 10-23-2012 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam (Post 3161263)
He isn't. He isn't a 2nd round lock even unfortunately, though I still like him.

He may not be a first-round lock, but he's earned a first-round grade from me. Outstanding footwork, mechanics, release, pocket movement, tight spiral, strong arm, generally accurate ball placement, SEC pedigree, long-time starter playing in a pro-style scheme. If he was 6'3" instead of 6'1", I don't think there'd be any question that he was a first round pick.



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