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Eazy Picks 11-09-2012 02:19 AM

Eazy Picks Week 10
ok last week I went 10-4 (didnt post the pick, but I did have the chargers. i think u all know im not crazy enough to pick the Chiefs)...puts me at 86-45 on the year.

Week 10 Picks

Indianapolis (5-3) at Jacksonville (1-7)
This game features two divisional rival moving in opposite directions. The Jaguars havenít won since their week 3 thriller in Indianapolis, while the Colts have won four of five since losing to the Jaguars. The Jaguars secondary is banged up right now, which could mean another big day for red-hot QB Andrew Luck. The Jaguars are still without HB Maurice Jones-Drew, which puts a lot of pressure on QB Blaine Gabbert to make plays.

Key Matchup: OTs Eugene Monroe & Cameron Bradfield v OLBs Dwight Freeney & Robert Mathis
The Jaguarsí run game isnít too scary with Rashad Jennings starting, which means the Colts will be focused on stopping the pass and will let their pass-rushers loose. Freeney and Mathis havenít been as productive as usual this year, but have dealt with injuries and are now healthy. Jerry Hughes and Cory Redding can also get to the QB and can factor in.

Key Factor: The Coltsí starting corners, Vonta Davis and Jerraud Powers, will both miss the game. Jacksonsvilleís receivers havenít showed much this year, but this could be the week that Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon wake up. WR Cecil Shorts burned the Colts with an 80-yard game-winning touchdown earlier this year, so the Indianapolis secondary will likely be giving him extra attention.

Eazy Pick: Colts

New York Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati (3-5)
The Bengals are looking to snap a 4-game losing streak, but will have to do it against the best road team in the league. The Bengals will be going up against a Manning brother for the second week in a row, and need to do a better job of slowing down Eli than they did Peyton, who averaged 8.3 yards per attempt last week. WR AJ Green could create serious mismatches in the Giantsí secondary, and will likely draw constant double coverage.

Key Player: HB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis
Teams that fail to establish the run against the Giants generally get their quarterbacks killed. Last week, Isaac Redmanís big game propelled the Steelers to a win. Green-Ellis hasnít rushed for over 4 yards a carry since week 1, but this would be a good week for him to break out of his slump.

Eazy Pick: Giants

Tennessee (3-6) at Miami (4-4)
HB Chris Johnson has been on a roll lately, but will have to keep it going against Miamiís 3rd-ranked rushing defense. Most teams get pass-happy against the Dolphinsí defense, but the Titansí passing game has been out of sync. Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush could both be in for big games against a Tennessee defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass and rush defense. Titansí QB Jake Locker has missed the last few weeks, but is expected to return to the starting lineup this week.

Key Matchup: RT David Stewart v DE Cameron Wake
Stewart has been a solid tackle for years, but he may be overmatched this week against Wake. Stewart is not at full strength and lacks the quickness necessary to block such an explosive edge rusher. If the Titans canít get Chris Johnson going and canít keep Wake off Locker, it could be hard to get any offense going.

Key Matchup: WR Kenny Britt v CB Sean Smith
Britt has not been having a strong season, but the Titans would love to get their big receiver going this week. The Dolphins have the luxury of having a 6 foot 3, 220 pound corner to stick on him. Smith is having the best season of his career, and might be able to shut Britt down.

Eazy Pick: Dolphins

Detroit (4-4) at Minnesota (5-4)
This is one of the most interesting matchups of the week. Two of the biggest surprises early in the season were the Lionsí struggles and the Vikingsí success. Halfway through the year, the Lions have turned things around and have the chance to leapfrog the Vikings in the standings. Minnesota badly needs to go into their bye with a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, as they have two games against the Bears and one against the Packers in the 3 weeks following the bye. Detroitís run defense has shown great improvement this year, but they will be put to the test by a red-hot Adrian Peterson.

Key Matchup: LT Jeff Backus v DE Jared Allen
Backus and Allen are familiar foes, meeting twice a year since Allen joined the Vikings in 2008. Last year, Allen recorded six sacks in two games against the Lions, and had one sack in their meeting earlier this year. Allen is one of the leagueís best pass-rushers and it essential that the Lions find a way to keep him off Stafford.

Key Factor: Percy Harvin out
Harvin could have probably had a field day against the Lionsí secondary, but he isnít expected to suit up this week. The Vikings will lean on their run game, but they will need some receivers to step up and help out slumping QB Christan Ponder. WR Jerome Simpson hasnít done much this year because of a suspension and some injuries, but he is expected to suit up this week and the Vikings will need him to play like the guy who received for 725 yards for the Bengals last year. WR Michael Jenkins and TE Kyle Rudolph can expect to see more balls thrown their way than usual.

Eazy Pick: Vikings

Buffalo (3-5) at New England (5-3)
This is really the last stand for the Bills, but there isnít much reason to expect them to do anything but get pushed over. Their defense is giving up 31 points a game, and they are going up against the leagueís top-ranked offense. The Patriots have been running the ball well this year, and gashed the Bills in the run game earlier this year. New Englandís secondary has been vulnerable this year, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will need to take advantage and have a big game for the Bills to win.

Key Player: LT Cordy Glenn
Though just a rookie, Glenn was making a big difference for the Bills early in the year before getting hurt. He returned to action last week, but wasnít much help against the Texansí stout defense. Having him in the lineup to block DE Chandler Jones is key. There will be openings in the Patriot secondary, but the Bills need to give Fitzpatrick time to find them. The Bills had a lot of success power running to Glennís side earlier this year and need to get that going this week. They need to keep Tom Brady on the sideline as much as possible.

Eazy Pick: Patriots

Atlanta (8-0) at New Orleans (3-5)
The Falcons may already have the division in the bag, but this is still a big game for them. The Saints have beat the Falcons in 6 of 8 games since Mike Smith took over as the Falconsí head coach, and it would mean a lot to go into the Superdome and pick up the W. The Saints seem to have woken up from their 0-4 start, but they may be outmatched in this contest. The Saints defense is still one of the worst units in the league, and itís hard to see how they are going to slow down the Falconsí powerhouse offense.

Key Factor: Saints Run Game
The Saints rank 30th in the league in rushing offense, but their ground game showed signs of life last week against the Eagles. With Darren Sproles out, the Saints got back to power running with Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram. The Falconsí run defense hasnít been impressive this year, and the Saints need to keep Matt Ryan off the field as much as possible.

Key Mismatch: WRs Roddy White & Julio Jones v Saintsí secondary
White and Jones have been ripping defenses this year, combining for 1337 yards and 9 TDs. They both had big games last week against a talented Dallas secondary, and itís going to be tough for the Saints to contain the explosive duo.

Eazy Pick: Falcons

San Diego (4-4) at Tampa Bay (4-4)
The Chargers have had 10 days rest, but will be making the dreaded trip to the east coast for a morning game. The Bucs are hot right now and will try to get HB Doug Martin going again after he gashed the Raiders last week. Carson Palmer threw for over 400 yards on the Bucs last week, so thereís no reason Phillip Rivers canít have a big day against the Bucsí last-ranked pass defense. He may need to, as the Bucsí defense has been shutting down the run and Ryan Mathews hasnít been giving them good production on the ground.

Key Player: WR Vincent Jackson
Jackson had a tenuous relationship with the Chargersí management during his 7 years in San Diego, and would probably love to stick it to his former team. The Chargersí defense is much better against the run than the pass, so the Bucs may need a big game from him. He will be going up against defensive backs who he has practiced against for years, but itís hard to say if that is advantageous to either side. The other big question is if the Tampa defense can use Jacksonís intimate knowledge of the Chargersí offense to their advantage.

Eazy Pick: Chargers

Denver (5-3) at Carolina (2-6)
The Panthersí defense has been playing much better the last couple weeks, but they will be put to the test against Peyton Manning this week. The Panthers have been doing a great job rushing the passer, but the Broncos do a great job in protection, and Manning does a good job of getting rid of the ball quickly. The Panthers need to get their run game going to keep the BroncosĎ pass-rusher off Cam Newton, but Denver has been very solid against the run this year. With Brandon Lafell out and Champ Bailey likely shadowing Steve Smith, Newton could have a hard time finding openings in the passing game.

Key Mismatch: WRs Demaryus Thomas & Eric Decker v Carolina secondary
The Panthersí defense has struggled against teams with traditional passing attacks, and itís hard to see how they are going to defend receivers this good with such an accurate QB throwing them the ball. Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Norman will be overmatched and need a lot of safety help to contain these big receivers.

Key Player: MLB Luke Kuechly
Since taking over at MLB for the injured Jon Beason, this rookie has been a revelation for the Panthers. Their run defense has shown a lot of improvement, and they will need a strong performance from him to shut down Willis McGahee. He will also play an important role roaming the middle of the field in coverage. If the Panthers keep their safeties over the top, Peyton will try to dink and dunk to his tight ends and backs, and Kuechly will need to make sure these short passes donít become big gains.

Eazy Pick: Broncos

New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle (5-4)
The Jets and their guarantees are really getting old. Antonio Cromartie is used to putting his foot in his mouth and did it again this week by declaring the Jets would make the playoffs. The Seahawks are tough to beat at home and have a defense that could potentially shut out the Jets. It would be a mistake to read into Adrian Petersonís big day against the Seahawks and think Shonn Green will do well. The Seahawks generally are very stout against the run, and Peterson is simply a phenomenal talent. Mark Sanchez will have a hard time getting anything going against the passing game, as the Seahawks defensive backs will smother his receivers. The Jets havenít been strong against the run, which could mean another big game for HB Marshawn Lynch.

Key Mismatch: RT Austin Howard v DE Bruce Irvin
The RT position has been a serious issue for the Jets, and Irvin has to be licking his chops. The rookie has already shown he can be a dynamic pass-rusher, and Howard will be outmatched. If the Jets get themselves into a lot of 3rd and longs, Irvin could get multiple sacks.

Key Matchup: Rex Ryan v QB Russell Wilson
The Jetsí best chance in this game is for Rex Ryanís schemes to confuse rookie QB Russell Wilson and get him to make mistakes. Even without Revis, the Jets are still a tough team to pass against. Wilson has been playing well, but the Seahawks shouldnít ask too much of their young QB this week. They should be able to establish their run, rely on their defense, and let Wilson play the game-manager role.

Eazy Pick: Seahawks

Dallas (3-5) at Philadelphia (3-5)
Which NFC East team has been more disappointing this year? That question will be answered this week, as one of these inept teams will win this game and stay in playoff contention. The losing coach will likely lose his job. The Eaglesí offensive line has been dealt another blow with the injury of RT Todd Herremans, and it could be another long day for Vick with OLBs DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer breathing down his neck. However, the Cowboys defense has not been the same without LB Sean Lee, and the Eagles should be able to get HB LeSean McCoy going. The Cowboysí run game has been ineffective with HB DeMarco Murray out, and the Eagles cornerbacks match up fairly well with the Cowboysí wideouts.

Key Matchup: OTs Doug Free & Tyron Smith v DEs Jason Babin & Trent Cole
Babin and Cole have both been massive disappointments this year, and will be going up against a pair of pretty solid offensive tackles. The real problem with the Eaglesí defense has been their lack of a pass-rush, and this would be a good week for these two pro-bowlers to return to form.

Key Factor: Turnovers
Dallas and Philadelphia are tied for second to last in the league in giveaways, with Tony Romo and Michael Vick accounting for a combined 22 interceptions and 8 fumbles. If one of these two QBs can manage to take care of the ball, the other one will probably commit enough turnovers to lose his team the game.

Eazy Pick: Eagles

Texans (7-1) at Bears (7-1)
Sundayís primetime game is a potential Super Bowl preview, pitting two of the leagueís best defenses against each other. Points will come at a premium this game, so it is imperative that the Texans donít let the Bears get any defensive touchdowns (they have seven pick sixes already this year). Both teams have strong ground games, but could have a hard time finding running room against stout run defenses. The big challenge for the Bears will be keeping Jay Cutler clean against pass-rushers J.J. Watt, Brooks Reed, and Connor Barwin. Both teams have opportunistic defenses, so whichever team can avoid mistakes will likely win this game.

Key Matchup: OT Duane Brown & C Chris Myers v DE Julius Peppers & DT Henry Melton
Itís hard to say who will get the best of these matchups, but it will definitely be a battle. All four of these players are among their best at their positions, and take pride in winning individual matchups. If the Bears can win up front and put pressure on Schaub, their chances of forcing some turnovers go way up. If the Texans can control the line of scrimmage and get Arian Foster going, they can use play-action and find some opening in the Chicago secondary

Key Matchup: WR Brandon Marshall v CB Johnathan Joseph
This is another great matchup between two of the best at their respective positions. Marshall is the most important player on the Chicago offense and Cutler will almost certainly throw to him early and often. Joseph has the size and coverage skills to match up with Marshall, so it will be a question of who rises to the occasion.

Eazy Pick: Bears

Kansas City (1-7) at Pittsburgh (5-3)
Monday Night Football might not get very good ratings this week. The Chiefs have simply been atrocious this year, and still have not led a game at any point this year. Their defense has underachieved all year, and there isnít much reason to expect them to rise to the occasion against QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is playing at MVP level. If Isaac Redman can have another big game it will help keep pass-rushers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston off Roethlisberger. The good news for the Chiefs is HB Jamaal Charles is expected to suit up, but he probably wonít find a lot of running room against the Steelersí swarming defense.

Key Mismatch: QB Matt Cassell v Steelersí Secondary
All things considered, the Chiefs probably have the worst passing game in the league. They rank 25th in passing yards per game and 29th in yards per attempt, but lead the league in interceptions. The Steelers have been suffocating against the pass, leading the league in passing yardage allowed and ranking second in yards allowed per attempt. Itís not too hard to connect the dots.

Key Injury: WR Antonio Brown
With Brown out of the lineup, the Chiefs can stick CB Brandon Flowers on WR Mike Wallace and wonít have to worry about a second dynamic weapon in the passing game. Brown leads the Steelers in receptions, and his absence would be a cause for major concern if the Steelers were playing a better team. TE Heath Miller and WR Emmanuelle Sanders are good receiving options and Ben Roethlisberger shouldnít have too much problem making things happen against the Chiefs without Brown.

Eazy Pick: Steelers

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