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-   -   Jarvis Jones - Spinal Stenosis (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54869)

MI_Buckeye 12-11-2012 12:24 AM

Jarvis Jones - Spinal Stenosis
 
I was just looking for some input here on just how devastating you think Jarvis Jones spinal stenosis condition will affect his draft stock. Will it cause him to drop out of the top ten? 15?

In the end, I think Jones will go about where he would have anyways. He has dominated for two years now without the slightest hint of an issue. I understand a spinal condition is a very serious issue, but at what point can you continue to pass on a guy with such tremendous talent?

Obviously the medical checks in Indy will play a huge role in the fluctuation of his stock. This, IMO, will be one the hot topics of the draft season. So what do you think? Will Jones have a protracted wait on draft night? If your team is picking in the top ten and needs a dominant outside linebacker, would you be willing to take him aboard, risks and all?

Scott Wright 12-11-2012 12:32 AM

We've talked about this situation on the podcast quite a bit.

USC actually advised Jones to retire but then he got cleared a bunch of other places, transferred and hasn't had any issues at Georgia that we know of. It may come down to each teams medical staffs and whether they are conservative or willing to take risks. One way or another Jones' medical checkup at the Scouting Combine will be one of the most eagerly anticipated in some time. If there is a legitimate issue Jones could free-fall on Draft Day.

MI_Buckeye 12-11-2012 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Wright (Post 3208456)
We've talked about this situation on the podcast quite a bit.

USC actually advised Jones to retire but then he got cleared a bunch of other places, transferred and hasn't had any issues at Georgia that we know of. It may come down to each teams medical staffs and whether they are conservative or willing to take risks. One way or another Jones' medical checkup at the Scouting Combine will be one of the most eagerly anticipated in some time. If there is a legitimate issue Jones could free-fall on Draft Day.

Scott, how do you think Jones's situation compares to that of Da'Quan Bowers and his degenerative knee a couple years ago?

armageddon 12-11-2012 01:21 AM

or Robert Quinn's brain tumor?

nobodyinparticular 12-11-2012 01:34 AM

I see this similarly to Marcus McNeill's spinal stenosis when he was drafted. It likely isn't going to affect his ability to be a successful player, but it is likely to affect his ability to be successful longterm.

To put it another way, his stenosis may not affect how bright his star is, but perhaps how long it burns. Just like with McNeill. McNeill also had other issues like weight and there was a little concern over how well he would be able to handle speed on the outside as a left tackle--some thought he would be relegated to RT. And even with that, the Chargers nabbed McNeill in the middle of the 2nd round.

With top 10 picks, you expect to hit on a prospect that could be a game changer for you for the next 8-10 years. Some teams may be very concerned about the longevity of Jones' career, but I fully expect him to be drafted certainly by the middle of round 1 unless his medical tests come back absolutely horrible.

It only takes one team to decide they like the idea of having a stud pass rusher for at least a few years.

Cigaro 12-11-2012 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nobodyinparticular (Post 3208475)
I see this similarly to Marcus McNeill's spinal stenosis when he was drafted. It likely isn't going to affect his ability to be a successful player, but it is likely to affect his ability to be successful longterm.

To put it another way, his stenosis may not affect how bright his star is, but perhaps how long it burns. Just like with McNeill. McNeill also had other issues like weight and there was a little concern over how well he would be able to handle speed on the outside as a left tackle--some thought he would be relegated to RT. And even with that, the Chargers nabbed McNeill in the middle of the 2nd round.

With top 10 picks, you expect to hit on a prospect that could be a game changer for you for the next 8-10 years. Some teams may be very concerned about the longevity of Jones' career, but I fully expect him to be drafted certainly by the middle of round 1 unless his medical tests come back absolutely horrible.

It only takes one team to decide they like the idea of having a stud pass rusher for at least a few years.

Browns would be an interesting choice. They desperately need a pass rusher, and despite their record, they have the talent to quickly become very good if they keep everything on track.

bigbuc 12-11-2012 02:17 AM

I think he falls into the 8-14 range... And that's when a bad team takes a shot or a good team makes a move to get a top 5 player

FUNBUNCHER 12-11-2012 02:44 AM

If he plays out his first contract in relatively good health, it's a bargain for the team that drafts him.

georgiafan 12-11-2012 07:58 AM

Jarvis has also had a bunch of minor injuries that causes him to miss games and not be 100%

Iamcanadian 12-11-2012 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nobodyinparticular (Post 3208475)
I see this similarly to Marcus McNeill's spinal stenosis when he was drafted. It likely isn't going to affect his ability to be a successful player, but it is likely to affect his ability to be successful longterm.

To put it another way, his stenosis may not affect how bright his star is, but perhaps how long it burns. Just like with McNeill. McNeill also had other issues like weight and there was a little concern over how well he would be able to handle speed on the outside as a left tackle--some thought he would be relegated to RT. And even with that, the Chargers nabbed McNeill in the middle of the 2nd round.

With top 10 picks, you expect to hit on a prospect that could be a game changer for you for the next 8-10 years. Some teams may be very concerned about the longevity of Jones' career, but I fully expect him to be drafted certainly by the middle of round 1 unless his medical tests come back absolutely horrible.

It only takes one team to decide they like the idea of having a stud pass rusher for at least a few years.

This is an excellent comparison, it won't shock me if he becomes a 2nd rounder because of it just like McNeill

bigbuc 12-11-2012 01:11 PM

My Bucs are looking like 7-9 or 6-10 season. If this guy falls he would look so good at SLB.

MI_Buckeye 12-11-2012 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nobodyinparticular (Post 3208475)
I see this similarly to Marcus McNeill's spinal stenosis when he was drafted. It likely isn't going to affect his ability to be a successful player, but it is likely to affect his ability to be successful longterm.

To put it another way, his stenosis may not affect how bright his star is, but perhaps how long it burns. Just like with McNeill. McNeill also had other issues like weight and there was a little concern over how well he would be able to handle speed on the outside as a left tackle--some thought he would be relegated to RT. And even with that, the Chargers nabbed McNeill in the middle of the 2nd round.

With top 10 picks, you expect to hit on a prospect that could be a game changer for you for the next 8-10 years. Some teams may be very concerned about the longevity of Jones' career, but I fully expect him to be drafted certainly by the middle of round 1 unless his medical tests come back absolutely horrible.

It only takes one team to decide they like the idea of having a stud pass rusher for at least a few years.

I sort of agree with you, but there is really no comparison between McNeill and Jarvis as prospects. From what I remember, McNeill went about where the experts thought he should, regardless of medical concerns.

PossibleCabbage 12-11-2012 02:12 PM

There are probably teams who would consider him to be completely undraftable based on the diagnosis because one serious neck injury could result in paralysis. There are also teams who won't think it's a big deal at all, because it won't do anything unless he suffers a serious neck injury and most players never do.

The proportions of these teams will probably shift based on the exam at the combine.

Babylon 12-11-2012 02:54 PM

He'll drop a bit and some good team will take him and be called a genius for doing so.

Saints-Tigers 12-11-2012 06:53 PM

It's weird because if a guy doesn't have a long history of being hurt over and over, I usually am not bothered by things like this. Honestly, every player is one bad hit or awkward fall away from being seriously injured.

princefielder28 12-11-2012 07:20 PM

I've done some research on the condition and while I am no doctor it is something that scares me big time about him and really any player who may come along with this condition. If I'm a team in the Top 10 I want a guy who I can see playing for me into his thirties, and when it comes to Jones I feel that's far from a certainty. Are you going to invest such a high selection on a player who you may get 5 or 6 good years out of? I'm thinking not.

Bob Sanders Dreadlock 12-11-2012 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scott Wright (Post 3208456)
We've talked about this situation on the podcast quite a bit.

USC actually advised Jones to retire but then he got cleared a bunch of other places, transferred and hasn't had any issues at Georgia that we know of. It may come down to each teams medical staffs and whether they are conservative or willing to take risks. One way or another Jones' medical checkup at the Scouting Combine will be one of the most eagerly anticipated in some time. If there is a legitimate issue Jones could free-fall on Draft Day.

Free fall to the colts in the 3rd round

stlouisfan37 12-11-2012 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Sanders Dreadlock (Post 3209320)
Free fall to the colts in the 3rd round

Oh no...there is no way Fisher lets him get out of the second.

Abaddon 12-11-2012 09:19 PM

Michael Irvin had a Hall of Fame career with his spinal condition. That being said, no one knew he had it until it ended his career. He might have fallen pretty far on draft day had his condition been a matter of public record.

Jones to a team competing for a championship would make a ton of sense. Jones in the top 10? Big time risk/reward pick.

PossibleCabbage 12-11-2012 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Sanders Dreadlock (Post 3209320)
Free fall to the colts in the 3rd round

I don't know. I think this is the sort of thing where you think this is a serious problem (in which case you don't draft him at all) or you don't think it's really a problem at all (in which case you ignore it).

It's not like a degenerate joint condition or something where it just makes your career shorter, but isn't really a quality of life issue; it's a "I'm not comfortable putting this kid on the field, risking paralysis, when I'm responsible for him" sort of thing.

I think you either have Jones as completely undraftable, or you have him fairly high in the first. You're not going to feel bad about putting the kid at risk in the first round and then feel okay about putting him at risk when the third round comes around.

bigbuc 12-12-2012 03:27 PM

Espn has him falling out of the top 10 in their mock that's out today.

bored of education 12-12-2012 08:40 PM

If he plays 4-6 years at a very high level would it be worth a top 12 pick for the NFL franchise that picks him? I am being a jerk on purpose to prove a point. I hope I proved it, that point is that I am a jerk at times.

TACKLE 12-12-2012 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bored of education (Post 3210310)
If he plays 4-6 years at a very high level would it be worth a top 12 pick for the NFL franchise that picks him? I am being a jerk on purpose to prove a point. I hope I proved it, that point is that I am a jerk at times.

Yes. People expect too much long term production out of their first round picks. If you can play at a high level for most of your first contract, you were worth the pick.

PossibleCabbage 12-12-2012 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bored of education (Post 3210310)
If he plays 4-6 years at a very high level would it be worth a top 12 pick for the NFL franchise that picks him? I am being a jerk on purpose to prove a point. I hope I proved it, that point is that I am a jerk at times.

I think you're missing the point. It's not about "how long are you going to play for us" it's about "what's going to cause you to stop playing for us."

It's not like drafting a guy with a degenerative knee condition who can give you a number of years of high level play until his knees just can't hold up to the stresses of the game and the quality of his play dips and/or he retires. That's not a problem, all sorts of people live rich and full lives with knees that aren't good enough to play professional sports.

Spinal stenosis, on the other hand, is the sort of thing you can live an entirely normal life with and experience no symptoms, but any injury that involves compression of the spinal column can result in permanent major body weakness or even paralysis.

So do you draft a 21 year old kid if he can play at a high level for you for 4-6 years, but he ends up retiring because he's going to be confined to a wheelchair for the rest of his life? I'm not sure you do. Not because "4-6 years isn't worth a first round pick" but because you don't want to be responsible for that kid getting paralyzed; especially considering that if he had decided to be a bank teller instead of a football player his spinal stenosis would have likely never manifested in any way whatsoever. A guy with a degenerative knee condition is going to end up with bad knees whether he's a football player or a banker. A guy with spinal stenosis, on the other hand, will most likely experience no ill effects unless he suffers a spinal column injury, which will affect him worse than it would someone without his condition.

I mean there are certainly coaches and GMs who will ignore the human calculation here, but there are certainly coaches and GMs who will not. I mean the Green Bay Packers have cut, and urged retirement for three different players who developed spinal stenosis following a neck injury in the last six years (Terrence Murphy, Jeremy Thompson, and Nick Collins.) So some teams care about this stuff a lot.

Scott Wright 12-12-2012 11:10 PM

Probably time for everyone to pump the breaks a bit.

Remember, we don't have all of the information and it won't come until the Scouting Combine.

There may well be no issues at all.


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