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-   -   Actual top 20 order if all favorites win wk17 (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=54999)

Robcards 12-24-2012 12:12 PM

Actual top 20 order if all favorites win wk17
 
My spreadsheet for projecting the final standings is one week away from being obsolete so I figured I'd use it one last time and have all the favorites win in week 17 to see what kind of top 20 draft order we'd be looking at. Feel free to copy my top 20 order for your mocks this week too.

1. KC (2-14, 0.512) - Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia
2. JAX (2-14, 0.539) - Luke Joeckel - LT - Texas A&M
3. OAK (4-12, 0.469) - Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
4. PHI (4-12, 0.508) - Star Lotuleilei - DT - Utah (Feel I may get some stick for this one, I discount double checked and Jenkins is due a roster bonus and can easily be cut, and Patterson isn't guaranteed much so is also expendable, if they're switching schemes which seems likely, they'll need a run stuffing DT instead of the lighter pass rushing DTs they have now)
5. DET (4-12, 0.570) - Jarvis Jones - DE/LB - Georgia
6. CLE (5-11, 0.504) - Damontre Moore - DE - Texas A&M
7. ARI (5-11, 0.563) - Matt Barkley - QB - USC
8. TEN (6-10, 0.457) - Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
9. BUF (6-10, 0.480) - Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
10. TB (6-10, 0.506) - Sam Montgomery - DE - LSU
11. NYJ (6-10, 0.512) - Barkevious Mingo - OLB - LSU (I'm really down on this guy after this season, seems like a situational pass rusher to me, but then again so did Bruce Irvin and he got taken 15th after an impressive combine, so I could see the same happening with Mingo, and my Jets like to reach for guys with impressive combines unfortunately)
12. CAR (6-10, 0.523) - Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
13. SD (7-9, 0.457) - Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
14. MIA (7-9, 0.500) - Keenan Allen - WR - California
15. STL (7-8-1, 0.535) - Taylor Lewan - OT - Michigan
16. PIT (8-8, 0.465) - John Jenkins - NT - Georgia
17. NO (8-8, 0.518) - Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
18. DAL (8-8, 0.523) - Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
19. MIN (9-7, 0.523) - Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee
20. NYG (9-7, 0.525) - Jake Matthews - OT - Texas A&M

For the playoffs I just made some educated guesses on who would win, it's been a crap shoot in recent years so can't really project the pick 21-32 order well (aside from teams like ATL, GB, HOU, and DEN not picking 21-24 bc of byes).

21. CIN - Dion Jordan - DE - Oregon
22. STL(WAS) - Eric Reid - S - LSU
23. BAL - Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
24. CHI - Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
25. IND - Johnthan Banks - CB - Mississippi State
26. SEA - Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
27. SF - Terrance Williams - WR - Baylor
28. HOU - Matt Elam - S - Florida
29. NE - Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
30. ATL - Zach Ertz - TE - Stanford
31. GB - Barrett Jones - C - Alabama
32. DEN - Jesse Williams - DT - Alabama


I still have time to kill, might as well do round 2 as well.

33. JAC - Alex Okafor - DE - Texas
34. KC - Sharrif Floyd - DL - Florida
35. PHI - Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
36. DET - DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
37. CIN (OAK) - Giovani Bernard - RB - North Carolina
38. ARI - Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
39. (forfeited CLE pick)
40. BUF - Ezekiel Ansah - DE - BYU
41. TB - Jordan Poyer - CB - Oregon State
42. NYJ - Aaron Murray - QB - Georgia (height aside, he's my favorite QB prospect in this draft so I really hope the Jets end up with him)
43. CAR - Cordarelle Patterson - WR - Tennesee
44. TEN - Jordan Reed - TE - Florida
45. MIA - Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington
46. SD - Oday Aboushi - OT - Virginia
47. STL - Khaseem Greene - LB - Rutgers
48. (forfeited NO pick)
49. DAL - Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas
50. PIT - Dallas Thomas - G/T - Tennessee
51. NYG - Kevin Minter - LB - LSU
52. MIN - Mike Glennon - QB - NC State

53. WAS - Robert Woods - WR - USC
54. BAL - Anthony Barr - LB - UCLA
55. CHI - Chase Thomas - LB - Stanford
56. CIN - Nickell Robey - CB - USC
57. MIA (IND) - Kawann Short - DT - Purdue
58. SEA - Da'Rick Rogers - WR - Tennessee Tech
59. SF - Sylvester Williams - DL - North Carolina
60. HOU - Larry Warford - OG - Kentucky
61. NE - John Simon - DE - Ohio State
62. ATL - Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama
63. GB - Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson
64. DEN - Robert Lester - S - Alabama

Unbiased 12-24-2012 12:13 PM

With all the holes on the Jags roster, you go with a position that's actually set.

Robcards 12-24-2012 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unbiased (Post 3221644)
With all the holes on the Jags roster, you go with a position that's actually set.

Luke Joeckel is the consensus #1 prospect in the draft. If Monroe is a stud this is the first I'm hearing that, is that what you're saying? His contract also expires after next year, haven't heard a whisper of an extension, which if he's as good as you're implying you'd think they'd lock that up?

PS- You should know the Jags will likely have a ton of cap room to work with again next year, so positions that are easy to get from free agency shouldn't really be considered needs.

shylo3716 12-24-2012 12:57 PM

You have Justin Hunter in both rounds, I guess you can plug in DeAndre Hopkins in the second round slot.

Robcards 12-24-2012 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shylo3716 (Post 3221685)
You have Justin Hunter in both rounds, I guess you can plug in DeAndre Hopkins in the second round slot.

Thanks, good catch. Actually solves the issue I had of Cordarelle Patterson getting taken later than I expect him to, put him in for Carolina's 2nd round pick.

GatorsBullsFan 12-24-2012 01:19 PM

Eugene Monroe is set at LT for the Jags for the next 4-5 years no need for LT...I have to agree with Unbiased on this one...Plus Im thinking Jags might be going 3-4 next year considering the GM prospects that are being thrown out there

Robcards 12-24-2012 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorsBullsFan (Post 3221708)
Eugene Monroe is set at LT for the Jags for the next 4-5 years no need for LT...I have to agree with Unbiased on this one...Plus Im thinking Jags might be going 3-4 next year considering the GM prospects that are being thrown out there

How is he set for the next 4-5 years when he's only under contract for 1?

Pat Sims 90 12-24-2012 01:26 PM

The Bengals will probable hold off on the DL till later in the draft.

Thecollegedropout 12-24-2012 01:26 PM

Murray intrigues me....

I want no part of a QB in round 1 since I don't think anyone barring Geno Smith falling is worth it where the Jets are picking. I can live with it in round 2.

I am not a fan of Mingo but we need OLB....badly no matter where it comes from.

Robcards 12-24-2012 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thecollegedropout (Post 3221714)
Murray intrigues me....

I want no part of a QB in round 1 since I don't think anyone barring Geno Smith falling is worth it where the Jets are picking. I can live with it in round 2.

I am not a fan of Mingo but we need OLB....badly no matter where it comes from.

My thoughts exactly. I feel like if the Jets take someone like Barkley in the 1st that fans will set radio city music hall ablaze.

Also not a Mingo fan as I stated but he likely will destroy the combine and the Jets tend to fall in love with guys like that, hopefully we replace Tannenbaum with a GM who doesn't draft like a 13 year old girl with childish crushes but until then, Mingo projects as the most likely Jets pick for now.

Thecollegedropout 12-24-2012 01:32 PM

I can live with Tyler Wilson is say Jets trade down from 10/11 to like the 20's and he's still around. I can. Hell no to Barkley, it may be unfair but the USC trend is going to cause him some questions and hurt him.

Jets HAVE TO trade down often here. I get BPA is huge and all but the depth is just so mediocre, we have the worst backups in the NFL. The GM(Hope its not Mr T.) will have to make at least 2 or so trades to trade down and secure mid round picks in the process. This draft class needs to have 8+ players who get kept on the main roster(At least 3 or 4 of them have to be non-ST starters and please 1 be a superstar), none of this 2-3 players only make it on the roster nonsense Mr. T has done for the past 4 years or so.

Robcards 12-24-2012 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thecollegedropout (Post 3221723)
I can live with Tyler Wilson is say Jets trade down from 10/11 to like the 20's and he's still around. I can. Hell no to Barkley, it may be unfair but the USC trend is going to cause him some questions and hurt him.

Jets HAVE TO trade down often here. I get BPA is huge and all but the depth is just so mediocre, we have the worst backups in the NFL. The GM(Hope its not Mr T.) will have to make at least 2 or so trades to trade down and secure mid round picks in the process. This draft class needs to have 8+ players who get kept on the main roster(At least 3 or 4 of them have to be non-ST starters and please 1 be a superstar), none of this 2-3 players only make it on the roster nonsense Mr. T has done for the past 4 years or so.

Every year I preach trading down for the Jets and every year they do the opposite and trade up =[

Trogdor 12-24-2012 01:36 PM

<3 Cowboys mock.

That mock would probably be the ideal scenario for me. Parnell is promoted to RT and our offensive line gets a major boost on the right side. Adding a real safety to Rob's defense should do wonders as well. With everyone coming back from injuries that defense could be amazing.

GatorsBullsFan 12-24-2012 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robcards (Post 3221711)
How is he set for the next 4-5 years when he's only under contract for 1?

Because I have no doubt in my mind that we will resign him to a long term deal

Robcards 12-24-2012 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorsBullsFan (Post 3221736)
Because I have no doubt in my mind that we will resign him to a long term deal

If they do they should trade back because he's too good to simply pass on and I'm not mocking trades.

gpngc 12-24-2012 02:02 PM

Is Milliner really a top-3 prospect?

coordinator0 12-24-2012 02:16 PM

That's not a bad mock fr Baltimore but I'm not sure about Austin going in the first round. I wouldn't necessarily be against it but players his size are always going to be a bit polarizing. The WR situation for the Ravens is kind of up in the air at this point too. If both Boldin and Jones are on the team next season there isn't much room for another guy at that position.

Barr is one of my favorite pass-rushing prospects and if they could get him in the second round that would be great. I wouldn't even be too upset with him in the first round to be honest.

Robcards 12-24-2012 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc (Post 3221751)
Is Milliner really a top-3 prospect?

Do you have a reason why he shouldn't be? He's way ahead of the pack for corners this year, and is the only blue-chip prospect at the position in my mind. I'd be shocked if he is there at even the 6th pick.

Robcards 12-24-2012 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordinator0 (Post 3221769)
That's not a bad mock fr Baltimore but I'm not sure about Austin going in the first round. I wouldn't necessarily be against it but players his size are always going to be a bit polarizing. The WR situation for the Ravens is kind of up in the air at this point too. If both Boldin and Jones are on the team next season there isn't much room for another guy at that position.

Barr is one of my favorite pass-rushing prospects and if they could get him in the second round that would be great. I wouldn't even be too upset with him in the first round to be honest.

The draft advisory board (which tends to err on the side of later projections) gave his teammate Bailey a third round projection and he is about the same size. Since Austin is the better of the 2 prospects, I don't think late 1st is out of the question. Of course he'll have to fly at the combine and pro day. The guy I've had Baltimore taking in every one of my other mocks (C.J. Moseley) has been leaning towards staying another year from what I've read, which wouldn't make a lot of sense as after Te'o he's the only 1st round worthy ILB.

gpngc 12-24-2012 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robcards (Post 3221787)
Do you have a reason why he shouldn't be? He's way ahead of the pack for corners this year, and is the only blue-chip prospect at the position in my mind. I'd be shocked if he is there at even the 6th pick.

My post wasn't meant to be sarcastic I was genuinely wondering. I have no reason why he shouldn't be but also no reason he should be. Which is why I posed the question.

Claiborne was about as good as you could be and he went 6th on a trade-up...

Looking for some specifics on Milliner. I know he can run, press, and has good ball skills.

gpngc 12-24-2012 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coordinator0 (Post 3221769)
That's not a bad mock fr Baltimore but I'm not sure about Austin going in the first round. I wouldn't necessarily be against it but players his size are always going to be a bit polarizing. The WR situation for the Ravens is kind of up in the air at this point too. If both Boldin and Jones are on the team next season there isn't much room for another guy at that position.

Barr is one of my favorite pass-rushing prospects and if they could get him in the second round that would be great. I wouldn't even be too upset with him in the first round to be honest.

After T.Y. Hilton this year, Austin is going in the first round no doubt.

The game is moving very far away from size, size, size. It's now more about long speed and short-area quickness.

Robcards 12-24-2012 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc (Post 3221793)
My post wasn't meant to be sarcastic I was genuinely wondering. I have no reason why he shouldn't be but also no reason he should be. Which is why I posed the question.

Claiborne was about as good as you could be and he went 6th on a trade-up...

Looking for some specifics on Milliner. I know he can run, press, and has good ball skills.

Dee Milliner doesn't have Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, and Trent Richardson in this draft class. That's the main difference to be quite honest. I thought he should have went at 5, was blown away when the Jags traded up to 5 for a mediocre WR prospect in Blackmon.

gpngc 12-24-2012 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robcards (Post 3221804)
Dee Milliner doesn't have Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, and Trent Richardson in this draft class. That's the main difference to be quite honest. I thought he should have went at 5, was blown away when the Jags traded up to 5 for a mediocre WR prospect in Blackmon.

Yea I can see all that.

I just think you take the pass rusher over the corner. A CB can lock down one guy, but Jarvis Jones eliminates the entire field.

But Jones has his own issues I gather.

Robcards 12-24-2012 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc (Post 3221808)
Yea I can see all that.

I just think you take the pass rusher over the corner. A CB can lock down one guy, but Jarvis Jones eliminates the entire field.

But Jones has his own issues I gather.

Right, the medical tests will really dictate where Jones gets drafted. Could be as high as 2, could be as low as 14 or so.

Cigaro 12-24-2012 03:09 PM

Normally I come in and say the Panthers need to take an offensive lineman in the second. But Cordarrelle is my favorite receiver in this class, so I'll accept it.


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