What would you do running this draft
We're at 5 and will probably have a chance to draft an impact player. What would you do in the first round and why?
Scenario one: Lions decline to pay Avril 12.5 million, KVB is not worth 10.7. Serious need at DE. Draft Damonte Moore, Draft Bjeorn Werner, Draft Jarvis Jones, Draft Dion Jordan, Draft Barkevious Mingo or Draft Ezekial Ansah.
Scenario two: Chris Houston bails for more money and our Corners headed into the draft are Bentley, Green and Greenwood. Draft Dee Milliner, Draft Xavier Rhodes or address the need later in the draft.
Scenario three: Lions can't resign anyone in group of Avril, Houston, Gosder Cherilous or Delmas...
Scenario 1: Werner then safety/CB in Round 2. Whatever is BPA to pair with Houston/Delmas
Scenario 2: Werner then safety/CB in Round 2. Go after a different free agent CB comparable to Houston.
Scenario 3: Werner then safety in Round 2. Go after a different free agent CB comparable to Houston.
Are LoJack and Young getting resigned in these scenarios? I dont think we'd have a big drop off in DE production with them starting. Might want to draft a DE or 2 in the mid rounds for depth though. Draft Milliner or Moore round 1 and BPA CB, DE, G, or S rounds 2 and 3.
Well, I did the wrong thing in posing this as a scenario question. I wanted everyone to throw out some off-season plans.
Really, I thought we only had a small prayer of bringing back either DE (Vandenbosch because of his contract and Avril because his base number would be 12 million and we weren't going to have cap room or pay him 12 million)
Also, knew Houston would be demanding more than we could afford so I offered the CB scenario.
After examining the cap, being 3 million over currently, then dropping KVB and Peterman and Young we freed up 8 million which puts us currently 5 million under the cap. The purge isn't over.
When it is all said and done I believe we will re-sign Delmas, Houston will walk and so will Avril. That will leave us with Young and Jackson meaning to me unless we re-sign Corey Williams and move Suh out to DE we might have to select a DE or sign one in FA. I believe we have the corners to go but we will need a safety and there are some options available at OT and OG but we may move an OL up from within. Also, we may have to move in a direction to shore up the OL. The only place I can see more cap space coming from is Dom, Backus and re-working/extending Stafford and Suh,
Summing it up then, we have a 5 million dollar gap between the salary cap and where we will start the NFL year. That cap can be expanded by various contract negotiations with Suh and Stafford and roster addition by subtraction clearing Backus and Raiola. Mayhew obviously has his eyes on some free agents but 5 million won't sign many so I see some more cuts coming and that says to me the money will not be used to resign Avril and Houston or Gosder Cherilous.
Knowing these facts, I see roster holes at DE, even if Jackson and Young step in, RG, C because Dom costs too much, LT or RT if Backus cannot be counted on beyond 2013, Safety because we need to shore up the defensive secondary and WR because Young is gone and we cannot afford Nate Burleson.
Nagy can fill in at C. We re-sign Delmas and Sammie Lee Hill for 5 million. Best case scenario, we resign Stafford extending him and pushing the cap back to save between 4-8 million and Suh to save 3-4 million and Burleson to save maybe 3 million. That will give us between 10 and fifteen million to play with in FA. That will also leave holes at G, OT, S, DE, WR and two OLB spots.
Using any combination of players in the first three rounds to fill spots and fifteen million to bring in FA's. Where do we look.
In the first we look at who is left either Warmack, Fischer, Moore, Werner or Jarvis Jones.
In the second maybe Phillip Thomas S or Datone Jones DE
In the third Aurthur Brown OLB or Jamar CB
Accepting Fischer in rd. one and Thomas in round two and a guard in round three just for arguments sake, that would leave DE, WR and two OLB spots to fill with free agency and 15 million. Take two big swipes in FA at filling spots with Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings. If that doesn't work sign a DE. We will need one with the rest of the money. Whitehead and Lewis will have to step up. I think we will also have to sign or draft a kicker and a punter. I don't prefer drafting a kicker or a punter saving the next four draft picks to pick up a WR capable of stretching defenses, defensive back seven people and offensive line depth. And, somewhere in there we have to find room for Jahvid's replacement. Simple huh.
I think it all depends who we can sign to the cheapest deal. Avril is the most valuable IMO, followed by Cherilus then Houston. Avril is great for our D scheme and could hoepfully move to RDE now. However, DE is the deepest at the top of the draft. I don't want to go OT, so I'd sign Cherilus and probably Houston, then take Mingo. In my dream draft we trade Fisher at #5 to SD, for #11 and their 2nd. THen we take Mingo,Moore,Jones or Vaccaro
I would not pass on Fischer or Werner for any of those guys except Jones if he is healthy. And, I would take Warmack before most of them, too.
I'm not as sold on Werner. I like him and I'm curious about his combine, but he seems like a Derrick Morgan type to me. We can get a good G later, I can't pull the trigger on Warmack at 5, probably not Fisher either. I think we have to get D with this pick. Our D is so depleted right now. Mingo is the best fit for the wide 9 and will probably be the best player. If you think Mingo is too raw, then I think you have to go Moore. Vaccaro is exactly what we need at S and he's moving up the boards like Barron last year. Jones is the wildcard, probably the best player available, but the biggest risk.
I see alot of stuff that I believe in here.
I am a personal believer in a Fisher, then Barrett Jones, starting safety, speed WR, DE draft for us.
Start out in the trenches.
I think we need to prepare for life without Cherilus and Backus, even though I wouldn't mind keeping Cherilus for cheap. Raiola also definitely needs to be upgraded. We can't keep throwing 3 times from 1st and Goal on the 1 because we can't get that quality push up the middle again this year. Fisher/Sims/Jones/Nagy/Reiff should be an outstanding upgrade and probably worth a 2-4 game improvement by itself.
DE position is a problem. I don't want to pay Avril, unless he only wants 4 million a year...because that's what he's worth. Young and Jackson, plus a cheap veteran and Ronnell Lewis are going to have to hold the fort for next year. I would love to add one quality DE who can either be or develop into an impact starter for us through the draft. I love Quanterus Smith(the dude who led the country in sacks from Western Kentucky, including 3 vs Alabama but then blew out his knee) He reminds me of Elvis Dumervil in his ability to sniff out sacks, except he actually has the ideal size needed to play the position. He'd have to redshirt, but he's essentially a delayed 2nd round talent when he gets healthy. He's also currently only valued as a late 6th-FA type. Perfect risk/reward.
Now, linebackers. We have Tulloch. I would love to have Tahir Whitehead develop into a starter alongside either Levy or Durant. The dude looks like a linebacker and hopefully Gunther has brought him along. Travis Lewis can continue to provide depth. We could add another body with a mid-late pick to replace either Durant or Levy.
Secondary...we need Chris Houston back. Houston/Bentley starting with Jonte Green, Greenwood, some random FA vet castoff to help push them, and I guess Dom Johnson as filler should be alright. Bentley was hurt but should theoretically project to be able to hold down the other starting spot. Jonte was terrible to start the year, but settled down a bit and can be trusted to provide help in sub packages. Hopefully Greenwood is healthy and can develop into a player who can challenge Bentley for his starting spot and at least take over for Green.
The bad news is that I don't see us drafting help for the secondary unless we lose Houston. Dee Milliner, Trufant, Xavier Rhodes, and maybe Jordan Poyer are the only real draftable prospects that I can see us taking. I don't like Logan Ryan's speed and contact downfield, and the rest that I didn't list don't seem like true upgrades for us over our young guys. So, draft those 4 guys or nobody and frankly we need help at other areas in the first 3 rounds.
The real impact area is safety, where Vaccaro, Reid, Thomas, and Jefferson are my ideal guys to add. I think we have to get one of these guys. Cyprien, Elam, Lester, and a few others would also be alright, but we need a starting safety who can aid our coverage.
RB/WR needs... deep threat who can man an outside position across from Calvin. Marquise Goodwin would be ideal, but if Justin Hunter or Robert Woods drop to the 3rd round I would probably go ahead and pull the trigger on one of them too. I see Patterson and Allen going Round 1, Hopkins, Williams, Austin, Hunter, Woods, Patton, Dobson, etc are all jockeying right now and it would be interesting to see who falls. With great depth, it would be wise for us to grab a potential starter now. Yes we need a DE and elite corner, but the draft will give us a great LT and a poor man's Julio Jones so we should take them and be thankful.
I'm also a big fan of the RBs in the 2nd-5th round range. I don't think we can afford to use a pick before the 4th round on one of them, but its nice having the options available to us if our board dries up. I don't think we necessarily have to have one, but I'm happy with a Mike Gillislee or Kenjon Barner.
QB...no. [insert cat picture here]
Special teams. I'm fine with blowing a 5th rounder on Brad Wing. I like the idea of helping our defense out by making opposing defenses drive 10-15 yards longer each possession.
Resign Houston, Delmas to an injury team-friendly deal, resign/tender Young and Jackson, resign Levy or Durant, Resign SLH.
Restructure Stafford, Burleson, and Raiola.
Fisher/Sims/Raiola and/or Jones and/or Nagy/Reiff
let Dom stay and have him teach Jones or Nagy for a year with a great position battle for that starting right guard spot. Fox, Hilliard, and Gandy can help with depth.
Calvin, Broyles, Burleson, Goodwin, Pettigrew, and Scheffler catching from Stafford. Hopefully Broyles and Nate heal and Goodwin can be brought along with special packages showcasing his speed. He should have plenty of room across the middle and also create space for the rest.
LeShoure/Joique Bell starting with Kenjon Barner as 3rd down back. Maybe have Kevin Smith hanging around for the inevitable injury that will happen.
Young/Fairley/Suh/Jackson with SLH and Ronnell Lewis as depth. Sign a vet DE.
Levy/Tulloch/Whitehead with Lewis helping as depth.
Houston/Bentley/Green/Greenwood....ouch, but they have a full offseason to develop and have their heads stop spinning. They should be greatly improved.
Delmas and Phillip Thomas should be great at safety
Players I'm avoiding:
Jarvis Jones: we can't afford an injury with out top 5 pick
Dion Jordan: dude is too light and is an injury risk.
Ziggy Ansah: I don't have the f'ing patience unless its the 2nd round.
Players with questions who could become the pick if they answer them:
Damontre Moore: How good is he with his hand down? Does he just have good instincts or does he have that elite first step? I don't want to end up with an undersized DE without any natural advantages who can't play with his hand in the dirt.
Bjeorn Werner: Can he regain the weight that he lost this past summer? Can he keep up consistent effort and play like every game is against Florida and not a MAC school?
Dee Milliner: Run like the wind. Blow the lid off the draft, show some elite man skills at the combine drills and no stiffness whatsoever. Be a top 5 corner and not just the best available.
I haven't fleshed out the later rounds yet, but a top three of Fischer, Barrett Jones and Phillip Thomas would float my boat. I thought I was the only one thinking Quanterus Smith late. I think trading down two spots and picking up an extra pick would be nice, too, but I don't want to get slick. Hell at that point, after drafting Fischer we might be able to swing a trade for Backus to a tackle needy team like Buffalo for not too much say our third and Backus for their second. We really have enough corners but not enough talent at CB and unless we sign one we will go with Green, Bentley Greenwood and roster fodder. Greenwood is better than Green and Bentley and I would be surprised to see us go corner unless someone falls we rate highly.
Late guys that I would be ok with drafting:
WR Russell Shepard- Former QB with listed 4.4 speed and can lineup slot or outside. Worst case is he takes over special teams duty.
DT William Campbell- Previously mentioned on this forum. Recent NFL Combine snub despite a good Shrine showing.
TE John "Jack" Doyle- Should be a midrounder but will be pushed to late. All around starting quality TE.
S Jahleel Addae- 4 Ints and good range.
All 4 weren't invited to the combine.
Anybody know the status of Backus or Raiola, because our whole draft will be predicated on whether they return or not. Mayhew has to know that his job is totally dependent on keeping Stafford healthy, if Stafford gets a serious injury, there is no future for the Lions.
I offer 2 scenarios:
1) Backus and Raiola call it quits. Then our draft will be all about the OL and Fisher and perhaps Jones will be our targets in rounds 1/2.
2) Both Backus and Raiola go for another season and our draft concentrates on defense and Werner with a CB/S in round 2.
If it comes down to a choice between Delmas and Houston, I'd take Houston every day of the week. Safeties in our system are a dime a dozen but CB's are worth their weight in gold. Besides that, Delmas cannot stay healthy with his style of play and will have a very short career.
Another guy I like is Reid Fragel RT out of OSU. He used to be a TE and just recently shifted to RT so he is raw but the skills are there if someone chooses to work with him. He is actually from my hometown so bringing in a hometown kid never hurts either IMO.
Given his skills and size I don't see why he could not develop into a very solid NFL RT in the future.
Greenwood, Bentley and Green would be a very young pool of corners.
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