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-   -   Question about the "weakness" of this QB class. (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=55800)

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 10:28 AM

Question about the "weakness" of this QB class.
 
First off, let me say that I DON'T believe this is a strong class and I am not making that argument. However, even though it's weak class, it's made to look weaker because up until now, the top QB of the class wasn't considered to be a shoe in in terms of a top ranking and the perception that there isn't a solid #1 guy reflects on the rest of the class. But is this class really THAT weak, so weak that there isn't a QB with a first round grade?

I recall there being many doubts about Matt Ryan when he went #3 overall. Early on the NFL media was reluctant to dub him a franchise QB largely because of the weak team he played on and the fact that Ryan didn't have one "wow" physical attribute. I see similarities with Smith. The Boston College offense Ryan played on had NO ONE other than a mediocre OT. Likewise, the West VA defense of last year was one of the most porus defenses I have ever seen on the collegel level and also there no quality running back on offense. Geno had two excellent WR options and thus he threw to them early and often. There really was no other option on offense but to get the ball to Bailey and Austin by any and all means necessary.

So, I see a parallel in that neither QB has a Matt Stafford level arm, Andrew Luck level prototypical size and pedigree or off the charts athleticism like RG3. And certainly, neither one of them won the gene pool like Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick. Yet they are both competent, efficient gym rat type with necessary measurables to play QB at a high level in the NFL.

So my question is, WHY is the NFL media so reluctant to warm up to Geno Smith? I think there are a number of obvious reasons. First, he played for a relatively low profile DI program. Second, he had some bad games against good opponents soon after the college football world had taken notice of him. Third, the lack of talent surrounding him proved to be too much for he, Austin and Bailey to carry to wins. Fourth, although he had a great year last year, he was still an unknown. Fifth, he is a black pocket passer who was (too) reluctant to run and sixth, he's named "Gino." A brother named Gino is just plain confusing. :njx:

But there is another reason related to the college he attended that plays a huge part IMO, and that is how he has been packaged. Apparently, it was somehow decided Gino Smith simply would not work as a media darling. Remember Mark Sanchez prior to the draft? Remember how this guy was granted television interview after television interview? He got tons and tons of face time. I recall one network allowed him to HOST a segament. Somehow, this guy got elevated to the #5 pick in the draft, rather, he was granted the opportunity to promote himself to the #5 pick in the draft. His talent and his play certainly did not warrant his slotting. Make no mistake, for all the talented NFL evaluators in the league, there are some that continue to fall in love with players and how they are packaged. Thus far, Smith has not been packaged. It remains to be seen if he will be. I will go on record right now and say that Gino Smith is CLEARLY better than Mark Sanchez, but just a week ago, much of the media was saying that Smith doesn't even carry a first round grade- but Sanchez somehow did. Thoughts?

bitonti 02-28-2013 10:50 AM

Mark Sanchez was criminally overdrafted. If you are debating that Geno Smith deserves the same opportunity to be overdrafted, I guess that's true.

But 2 wrongs don't make a right. that Sanchez pick was a mistake that got alot of people fired. Sanchez ability to run a press conference is way higher than his ability to play QB. Besides the GM, and almost all the coaches besides Rex who got fired, the team is now shopping their best player. All because Mark stinks. It's a tire fire in NY and even tho the Chiefs are 2-14 at least they aren't shopping their Pro Bowlers because they are totally screwed.

as for Geno himself, if he played every game like Baylor (and Clemson Orange Bowl) we wouldn't be having this discussion. There was a point in the season when he was the #1 overall pick.

It comes down to on the field performance and we can say WVU had a bad D and only 2 good WR on offense but excuses do not get a QB up to 1 overall. If WVU's D was bad, Baylors was worse. (by the way both of Geno Smith's WR are better than the Jets WR last year, who trotted out Clyde Gates and Jason Hill as starters after Holmes went down, sometimes QBs will not have help).

His bowl game left a bad taste in alot of people's mouths, it was a nationally televised game and most people got to see it over their holidays. If he can't beat Syracuse how is he gonna beat Denver? Snow does happen. A great 1 overall pick overcomes all sorts of talent deficiencies and wins games despite a lack of talent. (for example Cam Newton who did he have to throw to? )

in the end it comes down to desperation, the Chiefs just hired Andy and he isn't desperate to save his job. A guy like Buddy Nix in Buffalo could make the desperation gamble. Cause that's what Geno is, a total gamble.

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 11:11 AM

Mark Sanchez was criminally overdrafted. If you are debating that Geno Smith deserves the same opportunity to be overdrafted, I guess that's true.

I am saying that part of the reason Smith is or was not as highly rated was due to his packaging and the opportunities was given to promote himself.

But 2 wrongs don't make a right. that Sanchez pick was a mistake that got alot of people fired. Sanchez ability to run a press conference is way higher than his ability to play QB. Besides the GM, and almost all the coaches besides Rex who got fired, the team is now shopping their best player. All because Mark stinks. It's a tire fire in NY and even tho the Chiefs are 2-14 at least they aren't shopping their Pro Bowlers because they are totally screwed.

Agreed.

as for Geno himself, if he played every game like Baylor (and Clemson Orange Bowl) we wouldn't be having this discussion. There was a point in the season when he was the #1 overall pick.

Okay, although he shares some culpability, it's not like Andrew Luck didn't have bad games with far, and I emphasize, FAR more talent around him.

It comes down to on the field performance and we can say WVU had a bad D and only 2 good WR on offense but excuses do not get a QB up to 1 overall. If WVU's D was bad, Baylors was worse.

So, does that make the difference between going #1 and say, #10? It still doesn't make sense. If the the #1 team needs and wants to draft a QB, then the top rated QB should go there, period. Gino is not going to the Chefs because they no longer have a QB need.


(by the way both of Geno Smith's WR are better than the Jets WR last year, who trotted out Clyde Gates and Jason Hill as starters after Holmes went down, sometimes QBs will not have help).

This is irrelavent to the discussion.

His bowl game left a bad taste in alot of people's mouths, it was a nationally televised game and most people got to see it over their holidays. If he can't beat Syracuse how is he gonna beat Denver?

With the help of teamates around him.


Snow does happen. A great 1 overall pick overcomes all sorts of talent deficiencies and wins games despite a lack of talent. (for example Cam Newton who did he have to throw to? )

Cam Netwon was a one man wreaking crew, the likes of which we have NEVER seen on the college level. He was his own RB and he was in a perfect system for his talents with credit to Auburn. He also had a 6'4" WR who could catch deep balls and a defense that featured a DT then went in the top ten of the draft. Cam was such a talent that the Panthers said the hell with character concerns.

in the end it comes down to desperation, the Chiefs just hired Andy and he isn't desperate to save his job. A guy like Buddy Nix in Buffalo could make the desperation gamble. Cause that's what Geno is, a total gamble.

Really? A QB who completely 70% of his passes, checks out mentally, ran a 4.56, etc. is a "total" gamble? I will agree he is more of a gamble than a Manning or Luck, but outside of those two, how is he more of gamble than a 20 year old Alex Smith who played at Utah? Or a Carr who played at Fresno State and didn't come close to being the passer Smith is?How come those guys got the benefit of the doubt, no questions asked?

bitonti 02-28-2013 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3286705)
Really? A QB who completely 70% of his passes, checks out mentally, ran a 4.56, etc. is a "total" gamble? I will agree he is more of a gamble than a Manning or Luck, but outside of those two, how is he more of gamble than a 20 year old Alex Smith who played at Utah? Or a Carr who played at Fresno State and didn't come close to being the passer Smith is?How come those guys got the benefit of the doubt, no questions asked?



i don't have time right now to go point by point but if you are comparing Geno Smith to David Carr, it sounds like KC dodged a bullet.

I am not a professional Qb expert, there are other, smarter people who make those decisions. For example Andy Reid.

SolidGold 02-28-2013 11:32 AM

If I remember correctly, Sanchez reportedly wooed everyone with his personality at the combine and showed his "competitiveness" by throwing and participating in all the combine drills. It was a dumb move and a huge reach at the time and is coming back to haunt the Jets now. Basically the Jets GM and Rex NEEDED a QB so they reached.

I'd take Smith over Sanchez 10 times out of 10 and I am not really high on Smith but he is a much better prospect and has better tools than Sanchez had coming out or has now.

thetedginnshow 02-28-2013 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolidGold (Post 3286757)
If I remember correctly, Sanchez reportedly wooed everyone with his personality at the combine and showed his "competitiveness" by throwing and participating in all the combine drills. It was a dumb move and a huge reach at the time and is coming back to haunt the Jets now. Basically the Jets GM and Rex NEEDED a QB so they reached.

I'd take Smith over Sanchez 10 times out of 10 and I am not really high on Smith but he is a much better prospect and has better tools than Sanchez had coming out or has now.

Personally, if they were in the same class, I'd believe that Sanchez would go before Geno. In a workout, I bet Sanchez would look a lot better than Geno Smith. There was nothing wrong with Sanchez mechanically. Everything about him that's bad stems from the mental aspect of the game, but in an interview, how he carries himself, and just seeing how his teammates rally around him, any team would be of the belief that, mentally, he's just fine. It's just difficult to scout that sort of stuff because he didn't go through much adversity in college and didn't have a large enough body of work for people to really hammer down on him.

Attyla the Hawk 02-28-2013 11:53 AM

The biggest reasons I can muster:

1. There is an expected scheme inflation to be factored in with a Dana Holgersen offense. It's a pass heavy spread scheme chock full of bubble crap. He Jimmy Claussen'ed his statistics is the general assumption. And there is plenty of historical examples to back that stuff up.

2. He's not impugned for his physical skills like Ryan. Most of the criticism of his game is related to poor decisions and general indecision. Secondarily, his accuracy on balls is pretty startlingly inconsistent if you look at passes beyond 5 yards.

With Geno, he's got physical tools. He has production. But a huge portion of that is manufactured production. The kind you can't rely on at the next level. When you look at the plays that you expect him to have to make in the NFL, his game breaks down rapidly.

There is a very distinct difference between him and Cam Newton of 2 years ago. Cam, when you looked at the same passes, showed that he was a much better passer than he was being given credit for.

Geno does flash great franchise QB elements. But consistency is a problem. He needs to overcome that and there is no guarantee that will ever happen. Sanchez was a similar player and he never got past it. Cam is struggling to get past it and to be honest I don't think he's up for it. He doesn't display the proper mentality that leads me to think he can effectively deal with hardship. It's a tough mental challenge and that is difficult to determine if a prospect is up for it.

descendency 02-28-2013 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3286705)
A QB who completely 70% of his passes

When something like 70% of his passes were behind the LOS, it is mildly concerning.

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SolidGold (Post 3286757)
If I remember correctly, Sanchez reportedly wooed everyone with his personality at the combine and showed his "competitiveness" by throwing and participating in all the combine drills. It was a dumb move and a huge reach at the time and is coming back to haunt the Jets now. Basically the Jets GM and Rex NEEDED a QB so they reached.

I'd take Smith over Sanchez 10 times out of 10 and I am not really high on Smith but he is a much better prospect and has better tools than Sanchez had coming out or has now.

Amen. I was disgusted with the way the media helped him to up his draft stock.

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3286750)
i don't have time right now to go point by point but if you are comparing Geno Smith to David Carr, it sounds like KC dodged a bullet.

I am not a professional Qb expert, there are other, smarter people who make those decisions. For example Andy Reid.

No, I asked you what makes Smith more of a gamble than these guys. You made the statement that he was a huge gamble.

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Attyla the Hawk (Post 3286813)
The biggest reasons I can muster:

1. There is an expected scheme inflation to be factored in with a Dana Holgersen offense. It's a pass heavy spread scheme chock full of bubble crap. He Jimmy Claussen'ed his statistics is the general assumption. And there is plenty of historical examples to back that stuff up.

2. He's not impugned for his physical skills like Ryan. Most of the criticism of his game is related to poor decisions and general indecision. Secondarily, his accuracy on balls is pretty startlingly inconsistent if you look at passes beyond 5 yards.

With Geno, he's got physical tools. He has production. But a huge portion of that is manufactured production. The kind you can't rely on at the next level. When you look at the plays that you expect him to have to make in the NFL, his game breaks down rapidly.

There is a very distinct difference between him and Cam Newton of 2 years ago. Cam, when you looked at the same passes, showed that he was a much better passer than he was being given credit for.

Geno does flash great franchise QB elements. But consistency is a problem. He needs to overcome that and there is no guarantee that will ever happen. Sanchez was a similar player and he never got past it. Cam is struggling to get past it and to be honest I don't think he's up for it. He doesn't display the proper mentality that leads me to think he can effectively deal with hardship. It's a tough mental challenge and that is difficult to determine if a prospect is up for it.

I think you missing my overall point. Geno has his weaknesses, but by what standard is he being judged? Are you telling me that Sanchez, Smith, Carr, Harrington, ect., all pocket passers like Geno were without fault? Why are Geno's deficiencies being played up to the extent they are? As far as the system, I recall a top notch talent Aaron Rodgers being severly downgraded because of the offensive system he came out of.

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by descendency (Post 3286830)
When something like 70% of his passes were behind the LOS, it is mildly concerning.

Really? Got a link proving that?

FUNBUNCHER 02-28-2013 12:14 PM

Statistically, Geno Smith had a season equal to that of Luck/Barkley/RG3 in 2011.

Some analysts are knocking Smith I think for having less than brilliant performances every single game. K-State locked up on Austin and Bailey and their pass rush took away any possibility of his finding a 3rd or 4th read.
For the most part I thought Geno played great last season.

Yes there were some minor blips, but I also saw a guy who demonstrated special qualities as a passer for the Mountaineers.

It was vogue early in the draft process to say there were potentially no QBs who warranted a first round grade. I don't know if professional NFL scouts feel that way.

I'm still not clear what the major concerns are with Geno for talent evaluators.
Any technical/tactical flaws Geno has in his game I feel can be corrected with NFL coaching.

I hate to say this, but if Geno had also rushed for 600 yards and 12 TDs last season, I think his draft grade among scouts would be much higher.

bitonti 02-28-2013 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3286835)
No, I asked you what makes Smith more of a gamble than these guys. You made the statement that he was a huge gamble.

I could ask you what makes him less of a gamble. For me, a big sticking point is not going to Mobile. If he's a junior fine. If he's Andrew Luck fine. Everyone else should want the chance to compete. He didn't compete, he chose to limit his exposure, Brady Quinn did the same thing. people talk about how Smith is comparable to Ponder, Locker etc the difference is those guys went to Mobile and made the best of their chance. Geno didn't compete, and that scares me. Either he thinks he's got a better draft stock than he does or he's got something to hide.

gpngc 02-28-2013 12:16 PM

He doesn't get the face time because he's not as charismatic as Sanchez. Watch the Mooch interview.

SMITH:

- NFL teams question his leadership, demeanor on the field, and command of the team (that's the most damning of all his negatives).
- His footwork is bad and must be corrected.
- His decision-making is bad at times and must be corrected.
- He locks onto his first read at times.
- His arm is good, but nothing special.
- His offense was simplistic and QB-friendly and his supporting cast maximized his abilities. I used to hate this criticism but it is going to be way more difficult at the next level. How will he handle that transition?

Some of these aren't necessarily negatives as much as they are question marks. But there are a lot of them.

I think the problem here is that people see the stats, read detractors break him down, watch the film, see the touchdowns, good throws, etc. and say "what am I missing? He's flinging it all over the lot with NFL throws?" There's some truth to that. But the tape isn't about judging the end result. That's just a stat. You have to look at all factors, technique, what defenses are doing, etc.

bitonti 02-28-2013 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER (Post 3286849)
It was vogue early in the draft process to say there were potentially no QBs who warranted a first round grade. I don't know if professional NFL scouts feel that way.

the new GM of the Chiefs made that exact statement. And he backed it up by trading for Alex Smith. Presumably he got reports from his scouts that didn't put a rd1 grade on Geno Smith.

FUNBUNCHER 02-28-2013 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3286853)
the new GM of the Chiefs made that exact statement. And he backed it up by trading for Alex Smith. Presumably he got reports from his scouts that didn't put a rd1 grade on Geno Smith.

Do you think Geno Smith won't be selected in the first round??

First round grade is much different than deciding whether or not a prospect is worth taking #1 overall.

bitonti 02-28-2013 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER (Post 3286856)
Do you think Geno Smith won't be selected in the first round??

Buffalo is desperate enough to reach. If he slips past 8, it's gonna have to be a trade back into the round to get him. In the end I do think he will go round 1, probably in the 20-25 range and probably with a trade.

FUNBUNCHER 02-28-2013 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3286861)
Buffalo is desperate enough to reach. If he slips past 8, it's gonna have to be a trade back into the round to get him. In the end I do think he will go round 1, probably in the 20-25 range and probably with a trade.


I think he goes higher than that.

gpngc 02-28-2013 12:28 PM

Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and Blaine Gabbert were very flawed QB prospects. That class besides Newton is very similar to this one.

So it's logical to assume that teams will take these guys high just like that year.

But some may learn from those mistakes and try to wait it out.

My guess it happens somewhere in the middle of the "reaches" and them going where they deserve to go (later than the first).

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3286850)
I could ask you what makes him less of a gamble. For me, a big sticking point is not going to Mobile. If he's a junior fine. If he's Andrew Luck fine. Everyone else should want the chance to compete. He didn't compete, he chose to limit his exposure, Brady Quinn did the same thing. people talk about how Smith is comparable to Ponder, Locker etc the difference is those guys went to Mobile and made the best of their chance. Geno didn't compete, and that scares me. Either he thinks he's got a better draft stock than he does or he's got something to hide.

Are you freaking serious? Not going to Mobile is your big knock on him? That is utterly ridiculous. So in your mind, Locker and Ponder are better QBs than Geno not because of their comparative skills sets, but because he didn't go to mobile. He didn't need to compete with those clowns. They were the worst collective group of QB's in recent memory. His decision not to go was completely justified by their putrid play and he made sure he wasn't going to be lumped in with them.

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc (Post 3286851)
He doesn't get the face time because he's not as charismatic as Sanchez. Watch the Mooch interview.

SMITH:

- NFL teams question his leadership, demeanor on the field, and command of the team (that's the most damning of all his negatives).
- His footwork is bad and must be corrected.
- His decision-making is bad at times and must be corrected.
- He locks onto his first read at times.
- His arm is good, but nothing special.
- His offense was simplistic and QB-friendly and his supporting cast maximized his abilities. I used to hate this criticism but it is going to be way more difficult at the next level. How will he handle that transition?

Some of these aren't necessarily negatives as much as they are question marks. But there are a lot of them.

I think the problem here is that people see the stats, read detractors break him down, watch the film, see the touchdowns, good throws, etc. and say "what am I missing? He's flinging it all over the lot with NFL throws?" There's some truth to that. But the tape isn't about judging the end result. That's just a stat. You have to look at all factors, technique, what defenses are doing, etc.

I am, and I still see a QB that is MUCH better than one Mark Sanchez who by the way played with a ton of talent around him. How much has his charisma helped him on the pro level?

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3286853)
the new GM of the Chiefs made that exact statement. And he backed it up by trading for Alex Smith. Presumably he got reports from his scouts that didn't put a rd1 grade on Geno Smith.

Yeah, or, it could have been spin and Andy simply wanted to go the safe route with a vet QB to go with largely a vet team as the shortest route to success.

If the Cheifs needed a QB and were picking, say 17th, do you honestly believe he would have passed on Smith?

descendency 02-28-2013 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt (Post 3286848)
Really? Got a link proving that?

44% of his passes traveled less than 5 yards.

http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/...ics-breakdown/

Black Bolt 02-28-2013 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti (Post 3286861)
Buffalo is desperate enough to reach. If he slips past 8, it's gonna have to be a trade back into the round to get him. In the end I do think he will go round 1, probably in the 20-25 range and probably with a trade.

He's going in the top ten.


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