Pi Day Mock
With a couple of days of free agency in the books there's some big changes to teams' needs, particularly the Dolphins no longer needing a WR, Bears no longer needing LT and TE, etc.
1. KC - Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A & M
Let's not overanalyze this one. He's been rated the best prospect for quite some time now, Chiefs fans really can't get upset with picking the guy most commonly associated with BPA status.
2. JAC - Sharrif Floyd - DT - Florida
A huge riser since declaring, I don't see Floyd making it past 3 to Oakland, but as is I have Jacksonville taking him so Oakland will still do this trade:
3. ARI (trade 3rd or 4th round and 1st to OAK) - Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
Really surprised that Arizona isn't associated with Jake Long and didn't really pursue Bushrod. Looks like they're set on taking an OT in the draft. With Lane Johnson climbing and the Lions at 5 certainly capable of taking him, this trade makes even more sense now.
4. PHI - Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
The Eagles' big corner signing was Bradley Fletcher, right? Still a huge need and arguably the BPA here at 4.
5. DET - Ezekiel Ansah - DE - BYU
I have to wonder if the Lions are going to scrap the wide-9 with the Jason Jones signing. They're pretty much out of money so the rest of their team is going to have to come from the draft. They currently have Ronnell Lewis and Willie Young as the only DEs to play on the weak-side, so I don't see how they don't end up with a pass rusher at 5.
6. CLE - Dion Jordan - OLB - Oregon
Really had to think about this for a little bit. It came down to the fact that it's questionable whether Sheard will fit as stand-up rusher. I'm not sure if the Browns pass on Geno Smith though, it sounds like Michael Lombardi isn't a Weeden fan, but how many times can the Browns use a 1st rounder on a QB?
7. OAK (from proj. trade with ARI) - Star Lotuleilei - DT - Utah
Assuming the heart condition is a non-factor, Star would be a great pick here and likely to be there with the top 4 pretty much set and the Lions and Browns not having any room for a 1st round DT.
8. BUF - Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia
They really need to hope he's there, and along with the Cardinals become a couple of candidates to really pursue trading up. I think the top 5 picks have gained some trade leverage.
9. NYJ - Barkevious Mingo - OLB - LSU
Really looks like the Jets should end up with either Mingo or Jarvis Jones, which if you told me at the start of the 2012 season we'd even be in a position to get one of those two it'd be bittersweet because I'd know it meant we had an awful 2012, but good consolation prize nonetheless.
10. TEN - Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
Even with the Levitre signing, guard remains a big need for the Titans so I wouldn't rule out Warmack. However, it's not as immediate of a need and it doesn't sound like the Titans are really pursuing a pass-rusher in free agency so getting one in the 1st is likely.
11. SD - Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
Really surprised there haven't been any Jared Gaither trade rumors surfacing. From the sounds of it, the Chargers didn't want anything to do with him after he gave up last season, but for now it looks like his spot on the team is safe. Maybe they'll lock up his replacement first before looking to get rid of him.
12. MIA - Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
The biggest change to my mocks is not giving Miami the best WR available any longer. With Wallace and Hartline locked up for 5 years it wouldn't make much sense. They have not made any attempts to replace Sean Smith, so I think at least one of their 3 1st-2nd round picks will be a corner.
13. TB - Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington
If they still have this pick then they haven't traded for Revis, so they may need to reach a bit for a corner. I'd also see Jarvis jones here as a nickel rusher and early down Sam backer.
14. CAR - Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas
This is where it's starting to get hairy. I could see the Panthers taking Trufant, Patterson, Richardson, or Vaccaro here.
15. NO - Jarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia
The Saints have a couple of promising 3-4 edge rushers on the roster but in case Wilson or galette don't work out, jones will be nice to have.
16. STL - Cordarelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee
Could also be Chance Warmack here, but with Cooper also still on the board the Rams can hope one of those 2 are still there when they pick again at 22.
17. PIT - Damontre Moore - OLB - Texas A & M
Really don't think his stock has fallen as far as we think due to the poor combine.
18. DAL - Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
Bet the Cowboys wish they had 3 picks here instead of 1 with Warmack, Cooper, and Richardson still on the board at this point.
19. NYG - Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
Cullen Jenkins was likely only a stop-gap signing and if Richardson plays well it'll make Jenkins expendable next off-season.
20. CHI - Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
After free agency do the Bears really have any other needs? MLB and G are the only 2 I can think of. A solid slot WR would be good too I'm sure, but Cooper is a great pick at 20 imo.
21. CIN - Alec Ogletree - LB - Georgia
This pick could become Fluker if they don't re-sign Andre Smith, but I fully expect them to do that. They have the most cap room out of anyone so losing Smith to a higher bidder would be inexcusable.
22. STL (from WAS) - Johnathan Cyprien - S - Florida International
A steady riser during the evaluation process, his draft position will get pushed up due to the sheer number of teams with holes at safety.
23. MIN - Keenan Allen - WR - California
Jarius Wright will likely fill the slot role so I think Allen is the better fit for the Vikings over Tavon Austin.
24. IND - Datone Jones - DE - UCLA
It's debatable if Jones is the best 3-4 DE in the draft, I still think Jesse Williams may project better at 3-4 DE rather than NT and think he's a better fit, but I'll go with the current consensus.
25. MIN (from SEA) - Kevin Minter - LB - LSU
The MLB market isn't very good with Ellerbe gone so they should probably look to fill that hole with one of their 2 firsts.
26. GB - Jesse Williams - DL - Alabama
A versatile lineman with the capability of playing anywhere on a 3-man front, he would provide some needed insurance if Worthy is a no-go for 2013 which it sounds like he might be.
27. HOU - D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama
Originally put Tavon Austin but got to the end of the draft and realized I didn't have Fluker taken anywhere.
28. DEN - Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
Really not sure how the Broncos' run D was effective last year with the crap they had to work with at DT and MLB. Could also see them taking Manti Te'o as the Stewart Bradley signing wasn't really preventative of that.
29. NE - Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
The Patriots still need a field stretcher at WR and are still likely to cut Brandon Lloyd.
30. ATL - Johnthan Banks - CB - Mississippi State
With Gonzo coming back and signing SJax, Eifert or Lacy don't really make sense here anymore.
31. SF - Matt Elam - S - Florida
Not sure if Elam sneaks into the 1st but in this mock I have safeties moved up a bit so it would only make sense to have Elam go here.
32. BAL - DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
I just really wanted to put someone other than Te'o here. I was about to, but then John Harbaugh shaking his head during Te'o's 40 popped in my head. The Ravens don't really have anyone on the roster to fill Boldin's role, so this would certainly make sense.
33. JAC - Matt Barkley - QB - USC
34. SF (from KC) - Kawann Short - DL - Purdue
35. PHI - Margus Hunt - DE - SMU
36. DET - Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
37. CIN (from OAK) - Eric Reid - S - LSU
38. ARI - Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
39. NYJ - Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama
40. TEN - Larry Warford - OG - Kentucky
41. BUF - Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee
42. MIA - Menelik Watson - OT - Florida State
43. TB - Sylvester Williams - DT - North Carolina
44. CAR - Robert Woods - WR - USC
45. SD - Arthur Brown - ILB - Kansas State
46. STL - Terron Armstead - OT - Arkansas P.B.
47. DAL - Alex Okafor - DE - Texas
48. PIT - Manti Te'o - ILB - Notre Dame
49. NYG - Zach Ertz - TE - Stanford
50. CHI - Khaseem Greene - LB - Rutgers
51. WAS - Jamar Taylor - CB - Boise State
52. MIN - David Amerson - CB - N.C. State
53. CIN - Tank Carradine - DE - Florida State
54. MIA (from IND) - Sam Montgomery - DE - LSU
55. GB - Giovani Bernard - RB - North Carolina
56. SEA - Kyle Long - OL - Oregon
57. HOU - John Jenkins - NT - Georgia
58. DEN - Blidi Wreh-Wilson - CB - Connecticut
59. NE - Jordan Poyer - CB - Oregon State
60. ATL - Corey Lemonier - DE - Auburn
61. SF - Darius Slay - CB - Mississippi State
62. BAL - Jamie Collins - LB - Southern Miss
Hopkins is a nice pick for the Ravens.
I am always in favor of Allen to the Vikes, and now with the 2nd first round pick, they could go a number of ways. Going Minter is one of the options that i like.
I like Jones a lot for the Colts. Nice mock.
Jones is a good fit I think. I'd also take Fluker there since we still need a starting guard.
Perfect for Dallas. To be completely honest I would be happy taking Cooper over Warmack too. Any of those three would result in a happy dance.
Great Bears pick!
great patriots pick
jenkins got 3 years...not sure how much of a stop gap option he really is. I'd much prefer a DE or LB like Carradine than another DT.
Nice Miami pick!
Damontre Moore would be a better option for NO Trufant.
I'd assume San Fran will sign a free agent safety to start, so I doubt we draft one early. That said, we currently do seriously need one, unless the coaches like Trenton Robinson more than most people think. (I like Robinson, but don't expect him to start soon.) I haven't really looked in depth at Matt Elam, but he does sound quite a bit like Dashon Goldson.
That said, I'm not sure Harbaugh even really considers need at this point. He loves luxury picks. I therefore expect he'll make a pick way out in left field. If I had to guess though, I still think d-line. I've seen people like Jesse Williams going to them, and I wouldn't be surprised, even with the signing of Dorsey.
The niners really don't have any other holes than safety and NT (let's ignore kicker in the first), so depth is unusually a likely possibility. If I was choosing, I might take a flyer on a guy like Margus Hunt. I like his play more than most people, and there is no doubt he put up extremely impressive numbers at the combine. I could see him bulking up and being a good eventual replacement to Justin Smith, while being the primary d-line backup in the meantime, and seeing a lot of rotational duty. He also is one of the only people in the draft with strength approaching that of Sopoaga, who I wish we hadn't lost, even if I was a little disappointed in him last year.
I guess I will just have to accept Geno Smith is a possibility at 8.
It will be a waste of 3 years unfortunately.
overall good mock.
As for the 9ers pick. Elam is more of SS Donte Whitner mode, not the ballhawk we need at FS. I could see us drafting two safeties early to become our SS and FS of the future in this deep Safety class. Whitner will be done after next season more than likely. So I can see Elam being the pick, then a Phillip Thomas/ DJ Swearinger/ Eric Reid later on.
Wish we also had Cyprien as an option at #31.
Lane Johnson is climbing so the Cardinals have to trade up for Eric Fisher?
AZ has too many needs to trade up staying at 7 and selecting Lane Johnson would have been fine
If the Lions take Lane Johnson then how are the Cardinals going to take him? That was the point I was getting at. Why risk losing out on all 3 premier LTs when you can throw a 3rd or 4th or a 2014 pick at the Raiders to guarantee you get Fisher? The cost to move up from 7 to 3 will not be high this year.
you had Lane Johnson falling to 11, AZ picks 7th, your mock doesn't make sense
You had me at "Oakland trades down."
I suppose they could wait until Fisher is off the board, but if Fisher goes 4th to the Eagles and if the Lions really do like Lane Johnson then the Cardinals are SOL at LT for another year.
I disagree with your analysis of the Saints. After signing Keenan Lewis and still being involved in the Nnamdi Asomugha derby, the Saints do not need to take a first round corner. If the draft fell this way, the best player available is Cordarelle Patterson. The pick makes a lot of sense for us. WR is a need; it is just that not as big a need as getting an OLB.
I also think Richardson could fit at the 3-tech in our 1-gap, 3-4 scheme. The only problem I have with the pick of Richardson is that it becomes a bit redundant since we have a logjam of players up front such as Cam Jordan, Akiem Hicks, Broderick Bunkley, Will Smith, Tom Johnson, etc. So, if we are to maximize the value of the pick, I would think that Patterson or even Austin might be better selections.
Under no circumstances should take Damontre Moore. That would be a colossal mistake!
For instance, changing the Eddie Lacy to Falcons pick was easy to do since only 2 teams go after them and neither are in the market for a RB.
I suspect the Lions might be in for a tackle after Backus' retirement. All three top tackles might be gone within the first seven or so picks.
Reasonable #2 pick.
Swapped the Bucs and Saints picks for simplicity's sake. Trufant to TB and Jones to NO
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