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-   -   Most overrated stat/measurable? (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=56313)

Denver Bronco56 04-17-2013 10:07 AM

Most overrated stat/measurable?
 
When discussing football there is always something that gets brought up to excemplify whoever or whatever you are talking about and in most cases it is a moot point or something that is just not needed.


For me personally I HATE hearing about SIZE or 40 times. "so and so ran a 4.35, WR A is 6'5" 230 that makes him that much better"

or

Yards in most discussions, WR A had 1200 yards, HB B had 1300 yards...



Things like that to me are nothing more than a waste of breath because yards to me are not as important as TD's, size and speed are irrelevant if you cant catch, break or lack quickness. But people constantly bring up things like this in debate.



Just curious what other things people reference or point out that you guys find irrelevant or overrated in discussion?

tjsunstein 04-17-2013 10:12 AM

Tackles, or yards for QBs.

FUNBUNCHER 04-17-2013 04:57 PM

Hand size.

If you've been a good player at every level with baby hands, it's not going to hold you back in the NFL.

The poster child for doll-sized paws, Jacoby Jones, should put all this talk to rest once and for all.

vidae 04-17-2013 04:59 PM

I'll echo one tj said earlier, tackles. "So and so led the NFL in tackles!".. so what? Tackles are good, but you've gotta really look at em, see where they occurred, etc.

The most underrated stat, imo, is TFL.

SolidGold 04-17-2013 05:16 PM

I'd say 40 times. They get the most publicity every year but year after year plenty of players run fast 40s in a straight line and don't do dick in the NFL. It is the most over-hyped stat of all. Yet year after year dummies in the media, NFL and casual fans get caught up in them.

Ness 04-17-2013 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER (Post 3333378)
Hand size.

If you've been a good player at every level with baby hands, it's not going to hold you back in the NFL.

The poster child for doll-sized paws, Jacoby Jones, should put all this talk to rest once and for all.

Could lead to more fumble problems though. Culpepper had this problem.

coordinator0 04-17-2013 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER (Post 3333378)
Hand size.

If you've been a good player at every level with baby hands, it's not going to hold you back in the NFL.

The poster child for doll-sized paws, Jacoby Jones, should put all this talk to rest once and for all.

Ehh he's not the best example. Jones still has trouble with drops. Now it's hard to say if those troubles are the result of his hands being small or something else but that's definitely a weakness of his.

Brothgar 04-17-2013 05:46 PM

For me its easily 4th quarter comebacks. If you need to come back in the 4th quarter then guess what you were down after 3. Its a much more interesting coaching stat than it is a QB stat.

ChiFan24 04-17-2013 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER (Post 3333378)
Hand size.

If you've been a good player at every level with baby hands, it's not going to hold you back in the NFL.

The poster child for doll-sized paws, Jacoby Jones, should put all this talk to rest once and for all.

Wait.....Jacoby Jones is good all of a sudden?

DrewyVuitton 04-17-2013 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiFan24 (Post 3333476)
Wait.....Jacoby Jones is good all of a sudden?

He riding that Larry Brown hype

J-Mike88 04-17-2013 10:31 PM

Russell Wilson has one for you.....

ChiFan24 04-17-2013 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrewyVuitton (Post 3333668)
He riding that Larry Brown hype

No kidding. The guy made like 2 plays as a receiver last year.

gpngc 04-17-2013 10:51 PM

I think PFF's DB metrics are supremely flawed. All they take into account are balls thrown at a DB.

So ignore all plays where the DB did his job and made the QB throw in another direction by covering his man/zone...

Job Reborn 04-17-2013 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brothgar (Post 3333432)
For me its easily 4th quarter comebacks. If you need to come back in the 4th quarter then guess what you were down after 3. Its a much more interesting coaching stat than it is a QB stat.

Why exactly is it that the same logic wouldn't apply to coaches?

Lil Quip 04-18-2013 01:45 AM

I think tackles are the obvious choice, especially considering some places record shared tackles.

A tried and true argument, to a fault at times, against those 'accumulator' type MLB's is that they just get garbage tackles and way too far down the field.

40 times were extremely overrated but that is more around draft time. And I think there is a grassroot trend to put them in their place.

I would say yard per completion for a QB, but is that still big?

Oh yeah, 1000 yds for a RB.

Denver Bronco56 04-18-2013 08:53 AM

I agree tackles are a terrible stat because a player could rack up tackles that are 4-5 yards down field or after getting burned deep... But TFL are a great stat in my mind.


But interesting thought, the 1000 yard rusher was at one point impressive and then came late 1990's and the 2000's where it was diminished....BUT now with it being such a passing league where 5000 yards isnt that ungodly stat it once was when Marino did it, wouldnt the 1000 yard mark or like 1200 be actually regaining impressiveness since running is a dying art?

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-18-2013 10:48 AM

The sack is the most overrated stat in football.

On every play, a pass rusher has the potential to generate pressure of some kind. In MOST cases in which a pass rusher generates pressure, the QB will throw it away, make a bad decision, or run away from the pressure. The sack stat ignore 95+% of these results, even though in many cases the pressure that generates a poor decision on the QB's part (say, throwing an interception) is often more important than the pressure that generates the sack.

If you think about every single pass-rushing snap that happens in a game, and how rare an actual sack is, you get a picture of how incomplete the sack statistics are.

Also, if you really think about it - the sack is only a pass rush pressure in which the pass rusher just happened to tackle the QB. It's a hurry/hit/pressure with a tackle added on to the end of it.


This is why sometimes the player with 14 sacks is not as good of a pass rusher as the player with 8 sacks but alot more pressures (hits, hurries). The 8 sack player generated more bad decisions on the part of the QB, and disrupted more plays, but the 14 sack player just happened to be lucky enough to make a few more tackles on the pressures he did record, even if the 14 sack player had less overall pressures than the 8 sack player.

killxswitch 04-18-2013 11:05 AM

I don't think sacks are bad, they're just incomplete. If you look at sacks in relation to other plays behind the line of scrimmage it might tell you about his closing speed, backfield vision, ability to finish a play, etc. Plus getting close enough to the QB to tackle him also opens up the possibility of a strip sack fumble, which is one of the most potentially game-changing defensive plays you can make. For me watching Freeney and Mathis for the last decade has shown the value of a player that can do more than just generate vague pressure on the QB.

Of course then you also have the Mark Andersons of the world, who in his rookie year had a lot of sacks but almost no non-sack tackles for a loss. You can't just look at sacks, but they are informative in the right context.

FUNBUNCHER 04-18-2013 12:50 PM

The sack isn't overrated, it's just that pressures and tackles behind the LOS are nearly as important too.

Nothing shuts down an offensive play quicker than tackling the QB. If you can do this more than 10 times a season and force other teams to block you with two players, your entire defense is going to benefit.

You get two guys in your front 7 capable of 10+ sacks a year including pressures and your defense is well on its way to being elite.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-18-2013 01:13 PM

Sacks are overrated because everyone who watches football puts too much stock in them as the sole determinant of pass rusher ability.

Sacks are nothing more than a pass rush pressure (which happen often) which *ends in a tackle on the quarterback*.

Nothing more, nothing less. It's the pressure itself, and the frequency of its occurrence, that matters more in the end. The tackle on the QB just shows that the player has good tackling form when he does generate pressure.

To determine pass rush effectiveness, we should first and foremost look at pressure per snap in general: i.e. the number of times the pass rusher gets a QB hit, or hurry divided by the number of times he rushed the passer.

Now I'm not saying that everyone who gets 10+ sacks isn't getting pressure either. MOST players who generate alot of pressure end up getting alot of sacks as well. But there are cases where someone lucks into alot of sacks but doesn't generate alot of pressure either. And then there are cases where a guy generates alot of pressure, but doesn't turn that pressure into a ton of sacks.

It's like BABIP or XFIP in baseball. Sometimes hitters or pitchers get "lucky" with their final stats, despite poor raw stats. The raw stats like BABIP and XFIP measure non-extraneous performance indicators, and discount stuff that's out of control of the player himself. The same goes for pass rush pressure per snap vs. just sacks. Whether a pass rush pressure turns INTO a sack is a function of tackling ability, or just pure luck, that is not related to pass rush ability.

Rosebud 04-18-2013 01:18 PM

A pressure is not the same thing as a sack. You could have a point if you didn't phrase it in the dumbest way possible.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-18-2013 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rosebud (Post 3334291)
A pressure is not the same thing as a sack. You could have a point if you didn't phrase it in the dumbest way possible.

"Pressure" is an umbrella term. All sacks begin as pass rush pressure.

Sacks are nothing more than pressures that turned into tackles on the QB. You can't have a sack without pass rush pressure,right? But you *can* have pass rush pressure without a sack, i.e. without tackling the QB.

QBs see pass rushers coming often. It's rare that they are just blindsided. When they take a sack, it's because they A.) didn't see the pass rusher coming or B.) chose to hold the ball long enough to get tackled

More than 80% of the time, a QB will be aware of the pressure coming and do something to compensate for it. They will throw the ball away, or force a bad decision, or try to run. If the QB throws the ball away or makes a bad decision that potentially leads to a turnover, this situation is almost as good as a sack, and in some cases *better* than a sack (if the pressure forces the QB to make a bad decision that leads to a turnover).

If more than 80% of the time, QBs are aware of the pressure, then it's highly incomplete to look at the less than 20% of the time that they are A.) blindsided or B.) accept the sack. It's actually more important to look at the rest of the time, which is the more common occurrence.

Rosebud 04-18-2013 01:34 PM

I'm not saying pressure's aren't great and important, or that they don't help fill out the picture, but you chronically underplay how big of a difference that tackle at the end of the play makes.

AcheTen (Thumper) 04-18-2013 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rosebud (Post 3334335)
I'm not saying pressure's aren't great and important, or that they don't help fill out the picture, but you chronically underplay how big of a difference that tackle at the end of the play makes.

All sacks begin with pass rush pressure. We can agree on that right?

On any given snap, two things can happen: a run play or a pass play. Let's remove run plays because we are talking about pass rush pressure.

So on any given PASS play, one of the following things can happen:
- The pass rusher gets pressure
or
- The pass rusher does not get pressure

Let's look at the former.

On any given pass play in which the pass rusher gets pressure:
- The QB can throw the ball away safely and make a play
- The QB can throw the ball away safely without making a play
- The QB can throw the ball away dangerously, leading to a turnover
- The QB can be tackled (i.e. sack)
- The QB can run away from the pressure

The sack accounts for 1/5 things that can happen during a pass rush pressure. The vast majority of pressure situations fall into the other categories. QBs entire games can be affected by the amount and frequency of pass rush pressure, even if they avoid being tackled by rushers. The pressure will affect their decision making and speed up the clock in their head, leading to shorter throws, and less plays. This is a far bigger part of the defensive game than any one sack.

G Mobile 04-18-2013 02:06 PM

Pressure is important, but a sack has a much bigger effect on an offense. A good QB can still make a positive play with pressure. A sack is an instant loss of yards and the play is over, not including the added effect of a fumble or anything. It's like a corner playing great coverage on a WR, but not being able to make a play on the ball. It will dissuade the QB from throwing it to the WR, but the WR can still make a play and hurt you.

Sacks as a stat can be misconstrued and overrated in terms of pass rush ability, but the effects of a sack should be undeunderestimated. Actually hitting the QB and getting sacks has a considerably bigger mental effect than just getting pressure.


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