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-   -   Knile Davis, #96 (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=56648)

onejayhawk 05-04-2013 09:31 AM

Knile Davis, #96
 
From a number of conversations, this is the most divisive pick.

Some think its a good roll of the dice, because Davis has a first round physical package. Others think it a wasted pick, because Davis has a long history of under performance and poor choices. Some are meh.

What are you?

vidae 05-04-2013 09:43 AM

Knile Davis could have been had later. Using a 3rd on a RB would have been a bad decision to me, but using it on him was even worse, no matter how you slice it.

Injury prone RBs with fumbling issues don't go in the top 100 picks. Or at least they shouldn't.

If he's 2010 Knile Davis, great, he's a good compliment to JC and would give us a very tough 1-2 combo in the running game. If he isn't? That was a wasted pick, especially with more talented (imo) RBs on the board in Franklin and hell, even Lattimore. I would have taken both of those guys ahead of Knile Davis personally.

It's not a knock on Knile, he just can't stay healthy and he can't hold onto the ball. Fumbling can be fixed, staying healthy cannot, just ask Tony Moeaki.

WCH 05-04-2013 09:47 AM

I came into this thread as a representative of the Knile Davis Fan Club. There aren't very many guys who can run a legit 4.3 at 230 pounds. In fact, in the history of the NFL, you can probably count those guys on your fingers.

He's boom-or-bust, but he's my favorite pick of the draft by any team. If it weren't for his extensive injury history, he'd have been a top-10 pick even with the devaluation of RBs.

TheMatriculator 05-04-2013 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WCH (Post 3356285)
I came into this thread as a representative of the Knile Davis Fan Club. There aren't very many guys who can run a legit 4.3 at 230 pounds. In fact, in the history of the NFL, you can probably count those guys on your fingers.

He's boom-or-bust, but he's my favorite pick of the draft by any team. If it weren't for his extensive injury history, he'd have been a top-10 pick even with the devaluation of RBs.

Nice of you to drop by. I gather you are not from Arkansas. I have a lot of friends in Arkansas (I grew up there) and none of them are members of the Knile Davis Fan Club. Now if there was a Knile Davis Frustration Club, I'm sure they'd be glad to join.

For me this is really a "glass half full" or "glass half empty" situation. Sure, he has loads of talent but the NFL is litered with guys who have plenty of talent but can't stay healthy. In Knile's case, the injury history goes all the way back to high school. As I recall, he has been hurt/injured/missed games every year since his junior year of high school. That's a HUGE red flag. I'd probably have taken Franklin. I hope he proves me wrong.

WCH 05-04-2013 01:20 PM

I was in the chat room right after the Chiefs made that pick and we were trying to convince vidae that it wasn't a blown pick. He asked us how good the guy was during the 2012 season, and we awkwardly ignored him and sidestepped the question. The honest answer would have been that he wasn't very good at all.

He wasn't good in 2012 and his injury history is a bit frightening. I just feel like he's a superfreak and worth the gamble in round three. Look back at the third round picks of any given team over the past 10 years, and you'll probably see a lot of no-name players.

Also, in full disclosure, I hold John Dorsey in very high regard. If somebody else had made this pick then I'd probably be a bit less optimistic. I was a huge Davis fan going into the draft, but I feel a lot more confident now that Dorsey picked him.

onejayhawk 05-05-2013 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae (Post 3356281)
Knile Davis could have been had later. Using a 3rd on a RB would have been a bad decision to me, but using it on him was even worse, no matter how you slice it.

Injury prone RBs with fumbling issues don't go in the top 100 picks. Or at least they shouldn't.

If he's 2010 Knile Davis, great, he's a good compliment to JC and would give us a very tough 1-2 combo in the running game. If he isn't? That was a wasted pick, especially with more talented (imo) RBs on the board in Franklin and hell, even Lattimore. I would have taken both of those guys ahead of Knile Davis personally.

It's not a knock on Knile, he just can't stay healthy and he can't hold onto the ball. Fumbling can be fixed, staying healthy cannot, just ask Tony Moeaki.

I do not get this. Our RB situation is a mess--plus JC, who has age issues. Witness the production from everyone else over the last two years. I wanted to use a 2nd round pick last year. IMO a premium pick on a RB is long overdue.

Which brings us to point #2. Davis was not a 3rd round pick. He was a supplemental pick, which come after the 3rd round is over. True, it is listed as a 3rd round, but that is purely form. Functionally, it is a 4th round pick, witness only two picks between him and Nico. Would it really make much difference if we had used the #99 pick? He would not have been available at #132.

Yes, injuries is a knock on Knile. It happens to be valid knock IMO. We have seen players come in from poor coaching situations. Poe and Bailey jump to mind. They have proven to be wise investments. Injury prone is another story. Moeaki has been fantastic, when healthy. Our second round pick is a commentary on his overall value. Note that this is about whee TM was drafted.

I like the Knile Davis pick because I think we got a player with about a 1 in 4 chance of being a solid RB1, without overpaying. We are badly, almost desperately, in need of a future RB1, so it makes good sense in terms of fit.

J

King Carls 5 Year Plan 05-05-2013 10:19 AM

J, i get what your saying, but you cant list the problems with the depth at RB position and then say that taking a high boom or bust RB is a good answer for that depth problem. i agree with you on almost every point about Knile Davis. he has a world of talent that you cant just teach another RB. he has a natural ability to do things only a few are gifted enough to do, but (and this is a big BUT) he can't stay healthy, he has a MAJOR fumbling problem and has only 1 year of good production in college. those 3 things don't add up to a good replacement for JC. i would have much rather had Lattimore at this pick. i think there is a higher upside with Lattimore and similar health concerns. plus, Lattimore was as productive as any RB in football during his 3 years a SC.

onejayhawk 05-05-2013 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Carls 5 Year Plan (Post 3356738)
J, i get what your saying, but you cant list the problems with the depth at RB position and then say that taking a high boom or bust RB is a good answer for that depth problem. i agree with you on almost every point about Knile Davis. he has a world of talent that you cant just teach another RB. he has a natural ability to do things only a few are gifted enough to do, but (and this is a big BUT) he can't stay healthy, he has a MAJOR fumbling problem and has only 1 year of good production in college. those 3 things don't add up to a good replacement for JC. i would have much rather had Lattimore at this pick. i think there is a higher upside with Lattimore and similar health concerns. plus, Lattimore was as productive as any RB in football during his 3 years a SC.

I did not say it was a good answer. I would have used a higher pick, on a more reliable player. That said, it is a reasonable pick.

Also, it is not the only thing they have done. They invested a pick and a trade in the FB slot, plus their 3rd round pick on a TE better known for his blocking than her pass catching. Sherman may have been brought in to captain the Special Teams, but he will still get his PT as a blocking back.

About Davis, had he come out after 2010, he is an easy top 50 pick. What has gone on since then has knocked him back 50 picks or more. the upside is there. Lattimore is certainly a good option, but one without the playmaking ability.

Not to be overly blunt, but every pick has a risk factor. Playing it "safe" often results in players that look better in shorts than they play on the field, or a team of overachievers, with nothing left come crunch time.

We try to assess the risk and the potential reward, but the final analysis is often otherwise. I was a big Russell Wilson fan, which proved right. The fact that he went one pick after we took an OL will gall me for years. Yet, I would have taken 29 year old Weeden before I took Wilson. The risk/reward factor tilts that way.

When you get to the fringes of the top 100, you have two options. Knile Davis is an extreme of one option. Nico Johnson is an example of the other. Both are valid, and smart teams employ both. As I said, some team was going to take the risk before the #132 pick came along. Taking him #96 instead of #99 makes little difference, while this order is more likely to get both players.

J

vidae 05-07-2013 09:11 AM

Sorry, the whole argument of "well it isn't even REALLY a third round pick since it's after the third round! It's basically a fourth round pick!" is just really ridiculous to me.

And to answer your question, no, I didn't want him at 99 either. I didn't want him at all. I would have taken Nico at 96 and Franklin at 99 if they really believed RB was as big of an issue as you do.

Franklin isn't a physical freak like Knile is, but he doesn't have the huge injury or fumble concerns that Knile does and he was productive as hell too. It's a smarter pick no matter how you close it.

onejayhawk 05-24-2013 01:38 PM

I see they are trying KD at KR. it would be a great spot for him if he can hold on to the ball.

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae (Post 3358049)
Sorry, the whole argument of "well it isn't even REALLY a third round pick since it's after the third round! It's basically a fourth round pick!" is just really ridiculous to me.

And to answer your question, no, I didn't want him at 99 either. I didn't want him at all. I would have taken Nico at 96 and Franklin at 99 if they really believed RB was as big of an issue as you do.

Franklin isn't a physical freak like Knile is, but he doesn't have the huge injury or fumble concerns that Knile does and he was productive as hell too. It's a smarter pick no matter how you close it.

There are 32 picks between our round 3 pick and Davis. There are 2 picks between Davis and our 4th round pick. I am sorry you do not see that was a valid distiction, but ridiculous it is not.

We get that you would not have signed him as an UDFA. Permit some of us to disagree.

J


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