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-   -   The myth of the complimentary receiver "helping" another receiver statistically (http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57170)

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 07:35 PM

The myth of the complimentary receiver "helping" another receiver statistically
 
I challenge anyone to find me some examples of this actually happening. I'm talking about a receiver who was actually statistically better with a highly regarded compliment than in the seasons in which he didn't play with the highly regarded compliment.

In fact, you'll see it's generally the opposite. Add another top receiver and the other receiver's numbers are much more likely to decline, as the pass distribution is altered.

The closest anyone's ever come was naming Nate Burleson in 2004, but Moss was in and out of the lineup that year and he was on a similar pace yardage-wise in 13 games for the Seahawks in 2009. It seems more likely that he was just "OK" to begin with, and simply had a good season.

Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne...Wayne's still doing it. Harrison did it before him.

Jerry Rice did it regardless of who was on the opposite side, be it John Taylor or J.J. Stokes.

Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald...Boldin did it before him, Fitzgerald did it after him.

Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad...together, apart, makes no difference. Muhammad's career year was in 2004, when Smith was out for the season after week 1.

Smith's career season was in 2005, after Muhammad left for the Bears.

Terrell Owens had better numbers in 2007, when Terry Glenn missed nearly the entire season, than he did the year before, when they started all but 1 game together. And Terrell Owens did absolutely nothing for Lee Evans in their year together in Buffalo. Evans actually plummeted statistically.

Roddy White was posting elite numbers before Julio Jones, and Jones would be posting elite numbers without Roddy White. Guaranteed. Probably better than he's posting now.

Same goes for any other receiver statistically. A receiver will not benefit from having a quality receiver added to the unit.

It just doesn't work that way. Certainly adding another receiver can help an offense as a whole in adding to the overall production through that receiver's individual contribution, but all this, "he'll take pressure off the other receiver (s)" and, "he'll draw coverage from the other receiver (s)" garbage is...well, garbage. Ain't gonna happen.

And if you want to know the reason for this, look no further than the fact that "double coverage" is one of the most overused and misunderstood terms in football. It's pretty much a non-factor in the way football games actually play out. You're talking about something that is actually dictated by the routes the receivers run, not what the defense actually does. There are nearly always safeties over the top, regardless of what set of receivers is on the field. They're usually going to be playing zone. And they only come into play if a receiver's route interacts with a given safety's zone. And in order for it to be double coverage, the corner must actually be playing man, and not some sort of zone himself where the receiver leaves his zone.

The one exception to this, the one instance where it will have any effect at all, is if you're facing the rare elite corner who will actually move around to match up with a given receiver. A Darrelle Revis type. So at most, two games per year if he's in your division...your other receiver could benefit from having Revis lining up across from someone else. But this is minimal in the grand scheme of things, statistically-speaking.

So people can stop making excuses for a given receiver not producing because of "double coverage." I can assure you, that has never happened in the history of the game.

K Train 08-09-2013 07:41 PM

Wes Welkers worst statistical year was 2010....he was the guy there, no moss, no gronk.

His best years were years when they has moss or they had gronk, both record breaking players in the passing game.

I also believe that wallace and brown were so complimentary to each other, but i think they will be fine without one another. But the welker argument fits your "challenge" to a tee

The Alex 08-09-2013 08:18 PM

Friendly reminder this guy said Warrick Dunn was better than Barry Sanders.

cmarq83 08-09-2013 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Alex (Post 3421908)
Friendly reminder this guy said Warrick Dunn was better than Barry Sanders.

It's cool, he's just taking a break from writing his Jeb Terry scouting report to drop some knowledge on us.

Caulibflower 08-09-2013 08:25 PM

Friendly reminder:


Ness 08-09-2013 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caulibflower (Post 3421919)
Friendly reminder:


Good advice.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by K Train (Post 3421837)
Wes Welkers worst statistical year was 2010....he was the guy there, no moss, no gronk.

His best years were years when they has moss or they had gronk, both record breaking players in the passing game.

I also believe that wallace and brown were so complimentary to each other, but i think they will be fine without one another. But the welker argument fits your "challenge" to a tee

Nope. Welker continued to catch 100+ passes in the years after Moss was gone. 2010 was the year he was coming back from a torn ACL. By the way, Gronkowski was there in 2010. Caught 10 TDs, in fact.

As much as I'd love to credit Moss as well for Welker's numbers, it's just not the case. Welker was a product of the system, but Moss didn't make any difference in what he did. He'd catch his screens and hitches and drag routes, regardless of who was lining up at the other spots.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Alex (Post 3421908)
Friendly reminder this guy said Warrick Dunn was better than Barry Sanders.

Friendly reminder, I'm the guy who has nearly every decent back rated higher than Barry Sanders. You're making it sound like I raved about Dunn by isolating him from the group. I didn't. There were backs worse than Dunn on that list, but you chose Dunn because it perfectly misrepresents the point of that thread.

It was an anti-Barry Sanders thread, not a pro anyone else thread.

The Alex 08-09-2013 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JordanTaber (Post 3421939)
Friendly reminder, I'm the guy who has nearly every decent back rated higher than Barry Sanders. You're making it sound like I raved about Dunn by isolating him from the group. I didn't. There were backs worse than Dunn on that list, but you chose Dunn because it perfectly misrepresents the point of that thread.

It was an anti-Barry Sanders thread, not a pro anyone else thread.

It was an anti-intellectual thread, not a pro anything else thread.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Alex (Post 3421947)
It was an anti-intellectual thread, not a pro anything else thread.

Uh...ok.

Was that supposed to be clever?

Borat 08-09-2013 08:47 PM

Alvin Harper is the best example I can think of.

The Alex 08-09-2013 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JordanTaber (Post 3421956)
Uh...ok.

Was that supposed to be clever?

Not really but compared to the stuff you churn out it's pretty much Neitzsche.

Ness 08-09-2013 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borat (Post 3421961)
Alvin Harper is the best example I can think of.

The Buccaneers really screwed up when they handed him all that dough.

Don't forget Drew Bennett's magical season in 2004 with Derrick Mason on the other side. Once Mason left for Baltimore the next season, Bennett flopped.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Borat (Post 3421961)
Alvin Harper is the best example I can think of.

Harper never put up big numbers in Dallas. His best numbers were 821 yards and 8 TDs.

He goes to Tampa Bay, where his QB is Trent Dilfer instead of Troy Aikman, and he declines. I see no link to Michael Irvin.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ness (Post 3421976)
The Buccaneers really screwed up when they handed him all that dough.

Don't forget Drew Bennett's magical season in 2004 with Derrick Mason on the other side. Once Mason left for Baltimore the next season, Bennett flopped.

Steve McNair injury.

The Alex 08-09-2013 09:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JordanTaber (Post 3422010)
Steve McNair injury.

McNair was injured for half of 2004 when Bennett was putting up those numbers.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Alex (Post 3422015)
McNair was injured for half of 2004 when Bennett was putting up those numbers.

That's my point. McNair was a piss-poor deep passer, especially in his later years. Drew Bennett's strength was the deep ball. Volek made far better use of him.

jth1331 08-09-2013 09:29 PM

Ashley Lelie is one guy to come to mind.

Ness 08-09-2013 09:33 PM

McNair had enough to get his passes deep. He made it work with Mason for several years. Not sure why he couldn't make it work with Bennett.



Drew Bennett just wasn't that great of a receiver and battled injuries in his later years.

WCH 08-09-2013 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JordanTaber (Post 3421939)
Friendly reminder, I'm the guy who has nearly every decent back rated higher than Barry Sanders. You're making it sound like I raved about Dunn by isolating him from the group. I didn't. There were backs worse than Dunn on that list, but you chose Dunn because it perfectly misrepresents the point of that thread.

It was an anti-Barry Sanders thread, not a pro anyone else thread.

Reminding us that you also prefer Gerry Ellis over Barry Sanders doesn't really help your cause.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ness (Post 3422037)
McNair had enough to get his passes deep. He made it work with Mason for several years. Not sure why he couldn't make it work with Bennett.



Drew Bennett just wasn't that great of a receiver and battled injuries in his later years.

03 McNair isn't 04-07 McNair.

Bennett's yards/catch average shot back up in 2006 when Vince Young was the QB. If the Titans/Young had thrown more often, and Young were more accurate overall, I'm sure Bennett could've remained productive.

It's a strange example in the first place, though. Do you mean to suggest teams were worried about Derrick Mason? Mason was productive, but he wasn't exactly someone you were afraid of.

JordanTaber 08-09-2013 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jth1331 (Post 3422033)
Ashley Lelie is one guy to come to mind.

Lelie is a guy who suffered in Atlanta from the Michael Vick problem (just like Roddy White - interestingly enough, White was there that same year he was), then wound up buried on SF's depth chart during the Nolan years.

Once you get in a hole reputation-wise as a player, it's hard to get out of it.

Lelie was a flawed, rather one-dimensional receiver, but he could have continued doing what he did if he'd stayed in Denver, regardless of who they put in the receiving corps with him.

Ness 08-09-2013 09:59 PM

Well I don't know what you meant by McNair's later years. Yes it is true his play dipped down the line. In any case, I don't think that is an indictment of his ability to get the ball deep, which is the point I was contesting. Injuries and his inability to just be on the field screwed him over more than anything.

When McNair started the majority of games the next year after Bennett's mega year, he actually played okay on a team that was horrible talent-wise. McNair that is. Bennett was steady, but of course he got hurt down the road. Maybe if he had stayed healthy the perception on his career would be different.

Anyways, I'm not saying Mason was some dominant player, but he could at least stay on the field and was able to produce once he left for Baltimore with an over the hill McNair and other quarterbacks in the mix before Flacco came along. You are right that Bennett's average per catch went up when he went to play with Vince Young, but at the same time it dipped down again when he signed a deal with the Rams. I think the Titans played a ton of lackluster pass defenses in 2004 as well, which is when Bennett coincidentally had his best games if I remember correctly.

FUNBUNCHER 08-09-2013 11:20 PM

Every #1 WR benefits from another WR/TE or 3rd down back that demands coverage in the passing game and prevents a safety or corner from cheating on coverage.

If what you said was true, most teams with elite #1 WRs wouldn't even bother lining up another wideout and instead going with two/3 TEs all the time, or an extra RB.

broncosfan 08-10-2013 02:04 AM

Undisputable double coverage hehe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX0JjyTgme0


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