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Old 10-24-2008, 02:52 PM    (permalink
Geo
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Default Week 8 picks

Hmm, I suppose I'll put my picks in this thread then. And add a comment for JB where necessary.

Eagles over Falcons. I believe Andy Reid has lost only once after a bye week, and that was against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Plus I'm sure the Eagles offense has been working over efficiency in the red zone these last two weeks, so I like them to get the home win. Matt Ryan is going to face more pressure than the Bears delivered - or didn't, as it were. (I like the Eagles to cover as long as the weather holds up, otherwise that could not only limit the Philly passing game, but provide some missed FG opportunities from Akers. He's not a good kicker anymore.)

Panthers over Cardinals. Arizona plays well at home, especially once their offense gets hot. However this is a road game against Carolina's solid defense and balanced offense, so I think their losses on the road continue this week. Travis Laboy is still hurting, which isn't good for their defense, but I think we'll see the return of Anquan Boldin which is very good news. (Would have been nice if the Panthers were favored by 3.5, as I could see them winning by 4. As it is, I'll still take them although Warner and the Cards could make it interesting in potential catch-up mode.)

Bills over Dolphins. Miami will put up a good fight, moreso on offense I think as Pennington can find Camarillo and other receivers in the open zones. However with Trent Edwards delivering accurate passes himself and Buffalo's strong running game led by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, the Bills are my pick to take this latest game in a great divisional rivalry. (I like the Bills here, even if they win close it's by more than one point.)

Jets over Chiefs. New York could very well be without both Cotchery and Mrs. Pennington, but I have to think the Jets still win this, playing at home and after losing last week. The defense should get this done. (Missing both starting wide receivers would usually trigger cautiousness, but as long as Kris Jenkins continues to clog up the middle, that could result in turnovers from the Immortal Tyler Thigpen at the Meadowlands.)

Ravens over Raiders. Three big reasons: (1) A not-dominant west coast team traveling to the east coast, for a 1 PM EST start to boot; (2) Running the ball is big for the Raiders, however the Ravens shut down the run; and (3) Rex Ryan will probably be motivated to showcase his own defense with his brother on the opposite sideline. (I like the Ravens to cover, I'm not sure the Raiders can keep it as close as the Dolphins did last week.)

Patriots over Rams. St. Louis could use the big plays, turnovers, and touchdowns instead of field goals as they had last week, to get their third straight win over a headline team. I doubt the Patriots will overlook them in any way though, even if their annual match-up against the Colts is looming. (S-Jax being dinged up and possibly missing this game pushes it to the Pats covering imo.)

Saints over Chargers. Very tempted to pick San Diego, on the basis of Rivers passing on the Saints' secondary. But if the Chargers continue to get no pressure on the quarterback and their secondary doesn't live up to its potential, I have to go with the leading MVP in Drew Brees and the rest of the New Orleans squad to win this international showcase. But if the Saints continue to commit their stupid penchant of penalties and turnovers, the Chargers can and will jump on them. (I would think this is a high scoring game, even though neither running game gets going.)

Buccaneers over Cowboys. Dallas also knows the struggle of a defense not getting enough pressure on the opposing quarterback coupled with a struggling secondary. So as much as they need a win to stop their freefall, I think a good Bucs' offensive line can allow Jeff Garcia to make some plays down the field to help get the road win. And I've been meaning to say, from a few comments I made during the offseason here at NFLDC, I underestimated Tampa's defense.

Redskins over Lions. Detroit usually plays better at home defensively, and they will be desperate to get a win given the possibility of 0-16 with their remaining schedule. And maybe it's just me, but the Lions seem to be doing a much better job against the run, however their pass defense is of great concern. Which could mean Jason Campbell finding Cooley and Moss down the field, in addition to Clinton Portis marching on this season. (I like the Redskins to cover, they have an excellent pass defense so they should still limit any garbage time scores from Detroit.)

Jaguars over Browns. I think Cleveland actually has a real chance to win this game, but they've been so inept at times this season, I can't count on them to pull it off. The Jags are hurting at wide receiver, but thankfully for them they still have Matt Jones (never thought I'd be saying that a few months ago) not yet suspended. I don't think Jacksonville's running game has a big day against Shaun Rogers and the rest of the Browns' front seven, but the offense as a whole might do enough if Cleveland's offense continues to struggle and disappoint. (Not sure that the Jags cover the touchdown, it might be a little closer than that even if it's just two field goals.)

Texans over Bengals. Texans play better at home, especially their offense, and in that vein I think they continue their winning ways. Andre Johnson has really awakened the last few weeks, however I think the two primadonna receivers in Cincy can catch some balls and make this closer than some might think. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't look so terrible, as he's getting time and experience as a starter. (9.5 seems a lot, I think the Bengals could keep it closer than that. The Texans couldn't close out the Lions last week, then again all it takes is an additional FG over a 7-point lead.)

Giants over Steelers. Tempted to pick the Steelers at home, but I have a hunch that Big Blue gets some good pressure on Roethlisberger to help them win the game. Plus Santonio Holmes is inactive for being a dope, and Aaron Smith hasn't practiced all week due to a personal matter. The Steelers could definitely use both guys.

Forty-Niners over Seahawks. I wouldn't make this my Eliminator pick or anything, but I think the Niners can win this at home over the struggling Hasselbeck-less Hawks. (I don't like San Fran to cover however, 5 seems too much to me in this division game and with the JTO ready to rock your face and turn the ball over.)

Colts over Titans. Another pair of division rivals squaring off, very familiar and very physical with one another. Those two factors helping to produce four very close games the last two years, and I would expect a similar result this Monday night. Indianapolis' run defense actually comes into this game a bit maligned, having played well against the Ravens (2.7 ypc) and at the Packers (3.3 ypc) the last two weeks, but no doubt one of their greatest challenges awaits in the Titans' offensive line and Chris Johnson plus his TD vulture in White. I have a gut feeling that ball security might come into play for both Titans' runningbacks, the Colts' defense will try to force some turnovers themselves to give their offense additional scoring opportunities and/or shorter fields. The Tennessee crowd will be an even madder and more excited house with the national primetime lights shining, but the Colts usually do a great job of embracing the Monday night stage themselves. I think they pull off the very close victory, leaving everyone to mentally circle the Week 17 rematch.
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Last edited by Geo : 10-24-2008 at 02:55 PM.
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