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Old 12-03-2012, 09:24 PM    (permalink
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Default Should a QB-Needy Team Pass Early?

The Chiefs, Jaguars, Cardinals, Bills (well according to the owner) and possibly the Eagles need a QB.

Should these teams take the risk of drafting a Tyler Wilson, Geno Smith or Matt Barkley?

Or should these teams take BPA if it's higher on their board and try to trade back into the first for a QB?

Thoughts?
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Old 12-03-2012, 09:33 PM    (permalink
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Take a QB early. The success rate after the 1st Round is not very good.
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Old 12-03-2012, 09:37 PM    (permalink
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Trade down in the first - get some picks and your QB. I am sure some team set at QB would trade up to get a guy they covet like Jones, Loutelia (sp?), Joeckel or Werner.

Than again just let the dust settle in March before seeing what the QB picture looks like.
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Old 12-03-2012, 09:43 PM    (permalink
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Take a QB early. The success rate after the 1st Round is not very good.
This.

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Originally Posted by SolidGold View Post
Trade down in the first - get some picks and your QB. I am sure some team set at QB would trade up to get a guy they covet like Jones, Loutelia (sp?), Joeckel or Werner.
Not this.
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Old 12-03-2012, 10:04 PM    (permalink
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This.



Not this.
It's a deep QB class. Trade down in the 1st and get some picks - the guy the team is targeting may be there later in the first round.
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Old 12-03-2012, 10:48 PM    (permalink
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It's a deep QB class. Trade down in the 1st and get some picks - the guy the team is targeting may be there later in the first round.
That only works they have 'their guy' rated much higher than everybody else does (say they fall in love with a guy like Dysert). Otherwise, it's not worth risking not getting 'their guy' if 'their guy' is a consensus first rounder.

Also, for the Chiefs specifically, the other elite prospects at money positions do not match up with their needs. They this year don't need a pass rusher, they don't need a LT and they don't need a run stuffing D-Lineman. It's not a situation like Cincy in 2011 when they desperately needed a CB and a WR as well QB obviously and AJ and/or Peterson were going to be there. And had they had the #1 pick that year, I really doubt they would have taken anyone other than Cam with the hope of getting Dalton in the second.
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Old 12-04-2012, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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It's a deep QB class. Trade down in the 1st and get some picks - the guy the team is targeting may be there later in the first round.
When you draft a qb, you never risk the chance of losing him because you tried squeezing another player out of the deal. And you don't just choose whichever qb falls to you. You identify your guy, and you go and get him. You don't leave the qb position to chance.

You get who you want, and you make an aggressive move for him.
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Old 12-03-2012, 09:35 PM    (permalink
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Default

I'm very much a proponent of BPA over Need but like the rule says, if you need a QB and there is one you believe will be very good, you take him.
However, you can't just take a QB to take a QB.

So if you're not sold on the individual player's ability to lead your team, you don't him. That's why I think so many QB needy teams passed on Clausen that year.
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Old 12-03-2012, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Default

I think TACKLE summed it up well. If you don't have a franchise QB and there's a guy on the board you think will be a good NFL quarterback, you take him. Otherwise, go with a different position (although there are situations where you can take a QB if you already have a good one, obviously it worked out well for the Packers). Passing on a guy you think is a franchise guy is a mistake if you need one and taking a guy you're not confident in just because you need a franchise guy is a mistake as well.
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Old 12-06-2012, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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I think TACKLE summed it up well. If you don't have a franchise QB and there's a guy on the board you think will be a good NFL quarterback, you take him. Otherwise, go with a different position (although there are situations where you can take a QB if you already have a good one, obviously it worked out well for the Packers). Passing on a guy you think is a franchise guy is a mistake if you need one and taking a guy you're not confident in just because you need a franchise guy is a mistake as well.
Very well put! Any team that believes in the top QB on their board will draft him ASAP, trading back won't be an option otherwise they risk losing the guy they want.
Any QB hungry team will draft a QB if they have faith in the guy, trading back is for teams whose fans enjoy being a bottom feeder.
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Old 12-03-2012, 10:32 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs, Jaguars, Cardinals, Bills (well according to the owner) and possibly the Eagles need a QB.

Should these teams take the risk of drafting a Tyler Wilson, Geno Smith or Matt Barkley?

Or should these teams take BPA if it's higher on their board and try to trade back into the first for a QB?

Thoughts?
You guys have done a seemingly great job of drafting the assumed bpa over the years but where has that gotten you? The last QB the Chiefs drafted in the 1st round was Todd Blackledge... in 1983.
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Old 12-04-2012, 12:25 AM    (permalink
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The Chiefs have been passing up first round QBs to take "less risky" players for years. How's that working out. They've got a roster full of talented players at positions other than QB, yet are terrible.
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Old 12-04-2012, 04:43 AM    (permalink
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The Chiefs and similar teams need to keep targeting QBs in the first round until they find a guy they can build their offense around.

If whoever they take in the first round of the 2013 draft doesn't pan out, they need to select another QB in 2017, and so on.
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Old 12-04-2012, 05:31 AM    (permalink
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This topic comes up every year, however it is still not a black and white issue.

There are a few variables that come into play.

1. Do I think I can win a Superbowl with this QB?

2. Is there a guy who is a great fit for the system who, with development can become a franchise QB that can be had in the 2nd round?

3. Is the difference between the best available player so wide from the best available QB that I can justify not picking the QB?

I will state that I am a big believer of if you don't have a franchise QB then you need to get one. Look at all of the Superbowl winners for the past 10 years, they have all had at the very least above average QB play, and in general elite QB play.

In saying that teams who simply take a QB because they need a QB can set themselves further back than by not takin one. By taking a QB high in the draft you are almost committed to giving him 2 or 3 years of experience to see what you have. In this time you may miss elite QB prospects. Take the Rams as an example. They took Sam Bradford a few years back but still don't know if he is thei franchise. In the meantime they have passed on guys like RG3.

At the end of the day it's all a gamble. If you believe strongly enough that the guy is a franchise signal caller then you have to take him. That's why I can't fault St Louis for taking Bradford. However if you take a guy to fill a need, even if he is not a guy who love then it is most likely a mistake
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Old 12-04-2012, 07:36 AM    (permalink
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Only if you don't think the guy's going to be a franchise QB, like when Buffalo passed on Clausen, they didn't believe in him, and so taking him would've been stupid. But if you think that a guy available at your pick will be able to one day lead you to the superbowl, you have to pick him.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 12-04-2012, 07:43 AM    (permalink
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If you interview a guy during the combine that you like and you come out with more positives than negatives you should take him. Franchise QB trumps all and your not going anywhere without one.
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:24 AM    (permalink
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Why do people always qualify selecting a QB by saying "You draft a guy if you like him". As opposed to other position, where you draft players you don't like?

Also, when are people going to get over the myth that QBs are so much more risky than other players. QB or not, if you select a bust with a top 10 pick, it's a bad thing.
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:55 AM    (permalink
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Why do people always qualify selecting a QB by saying "You draft a guy if you like him". As opposed to other position, where you draft players you don't like?

Also, when are people going to get over the myth that QBs are so much more risky than other players. QB or not, if you select a bust with a top 10 pick, it's a bad thing.
It's all relevant to how you value that player. If you have the QB rated as your 7th player on the board but you think he can be a franchise QB then value kinda dictates you pick him in most circumstances. It's not the same for other positions. Most teams won't pick a safety if he is their 7th rated player simply because they need a safety and they like him.

Also, all positions have busts, not just QBs, however the risks are much higher when selecting a QB high. If you draft a bust DT in the top ten it doesn't set your franchise back as far as selecting a bust QB in the top 10
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:00 AM    (permalink
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It's all relevant to how you value that player. If you have the QB rated as your 7th player on the board but you think he can be a franchise QB then value kinda dictates you pick him in most circumstances. It's not the same for other positions. Most teams won't pick a safety if he is their 7th rated player simply because they need a safety and they like him.

Also, all positions have busts, not just QBs, however the risks are much higher when selecting a QB high. If you draft a bust DT in the top ten it doesn't set your franchise back as far as selecting a bust QB in the top 10
Not having a QB sets franchises back. It's also a risk to keep passing talented QBs. There are elite QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger who were passed numerous times for so called "safer players".
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Old 12-04-2012, 09:02 AM    (permalink
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Not having a QB sets franchises back. It's also a risk to keep passing talented QBs. There are elite QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger who were passed numerous times for so called "safer players".
Rodgers slid on draft day for unknown reasons and his career path is one unlikely to be seen again for a long time.

Brees is very much so an exception to the rule and Roethlisberger was drafted pretty high in the first in a draft with 2 other elite QB prospects.
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:25 AM    (permalink
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Are there any "franchise" type QBs in this class, though? I don't believe so. Saddling yourself with a Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, or Blaine Gabbert will set your team back for years. Christian Ponder is looking like a mistake as well. There's at least as much risk involved with drafting one of these QBs as with passing on them for a better player at a less valued position.

If you're going to gamble on a 1st round QB, and you're drafting near the top, the idea of trading back, grabbing a couple picks, and then rolling the dice seems the most logical. Not in every draft, but certainly in this one. Take advantage of a team desperate for a QB. If you can get even half of what the Skins paid for RGIII, you did good.
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:41 AM    (permalink
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Everybody wants to trade back. I'd rather trade back and get a good pass rusher and extra picks than take a good pass rusher in the top 5. Who wouldn't want to trade back and draft a good QB? The problem is that it doesn't work to wait around for the perfect QB to be available in a trade down scenario.
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Old 12-04-2012, 06:06 PM    (permalink
LonghornsLegend
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Originally Posted by Abaddon View Post
Are there any "franchise" type QBs in this class, though? I don't believe so. Saddling yourself with a Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, or Blaine Gabbert will set your team back for years. Christian Ponder is looking like a mistake as well. There's at least as much risk involved with drafting one of these QBs as with passing on them for a better player at a less valued position.

If you're going to gamble on a 1st round QB, and you're drafting near the top, the idea of trading back, grabbing a couple picks, and then rolling the dice seems the most logical. Not in every draft, but certainly in this one. Take advantage of a team desperate for a QB. If you can get even half of what the Skins paid for RGIII, you did good.


I hope people realize that these same arguments are used for guys that did pan out also. Ryan Tannehill most recently. How many teams would love to have Tannehill? It wouldn't have cost the Cardinals more then a 2nd round pick to move up and jump Miami, but maybe Michael Floyd is making that team so much better.



With Tannehill the Cards are in the playoff race, KC surely could have used him. There was all kind of movement in that 5-7 range for a team to make a play there, and either team would love to have him. So what if you draft a bust, KC would be no different right now then what they have been.


I just hate this argument on this site this time of year. You can't keep ignoring drafting a QB just because he's not a Andrew Luck type of prospect. How many people felt Joe Flacco was a franchise QB? How many teams would love to have him? I don't care if a guy isn't a once in a generation prospect, or that he has flaws, according to some people here there are no starting caliber QB's out of this class.


I guess these teams people have been talking about are just going to line up to sign Alex Smith and Michael Vick and call it a day, then continue to pass on QB's until they have the #1 pick and an elite QB waiting on them.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 12-04-2012, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
I hope people realize that these same arguments are used for guys that did pan out also. Ryan Tannehill most recently. How many teams would love to have Tannehill? It wouldn't have cost the Cardinals more then a 2nd round pick to move up and jump Miami, but maybe Michael Floyd is making that team so much better.



With Tannehill the Cards are in the playoff race, KC surely could have used him. There was all kind of movement in that 5-7 range for a team to make a play there, and either team would love to have him. So what if you draft a bust, KC would be no different right now then what they have been.


I just hate this argument on this site this time of year. You can't keep ignoring drafting a QB just because he's not a Andrew Luck type of prospect. How many people felt Joe Flacco was a franchise QB? How many teams would love to have him? I don't care if a guy isn't a once in a generation prospect, or that he has flaws, according to some people here there are no starting caliber QB's out of this class.


I guess these teams people have been talking about are just going to line up to sign Alex Smith and Michael Vick and call it a day, then continue to pass on QB's until they have the #1 pick and an elite QB waiting on them.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

And then people will say "how do the Jets feel about trading up for Mark Sanchez lololololol?"

To which you reply: They made the right move, but they ****** up and took the wrong QB. Shoulda taken the Freesus.

Taking a non-perfect QB isn't where teams screw up. They screw up by taking the wrong one.

Same goes for the 49ers and Alex Smith. How much would Braylon, Ronnie, Caddy, Cedric Benson have helped? They made the right move, took the wrong QB.
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Tannehill was a better QB (than Gabbert) when he was still playing WR

Last edited by y.f.s. : 12-04-2012 at 06:40 PM.
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:57 AM    (permalink
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For all the people who keep saying "just trade back!" or "just trade back into the first!".. it isn't that easy. People keep saying it like it is though.
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