Mock Draft 4.0 - 1/18/13

[Scott Wright]

Just posted my fourth mock draft of the year and the first since the underclassmen deadline!

2013 Mock Draft - v.4.0
http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php

As always constructive criticism is not only welcomed but encouraged. However, please be sure to explain the reasoning behind your opinions and if you disagree tell me why I am off-base.

Let's keep this thread fun and informative!

Now... FIRE AWAY! :)

[vidae]

Ugh, not you too Scott.

1) The Chiefs aren't letting Branden Albert walk. Not in a year where they're forced to pay out more of their cap. It makes no sense.

2) With Albert locked up there is no place for an OT to play.

3) If you have a QB going 7th overall, he can go 1st overall. The difference is negligible, and I've seen you argue the golden rule of the NFL draft more than one time on these very boards: if you don't have a franchise QB you don't pass on one.

It's just a bad KC pick that makes no sense.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by vidae

Ugh, not you too Scott.

1) The Chiefs aren't letting Branden Albert walk. Not in a year where they're forced to pay out more of their cap. It makes no sense.

2) With Albert locked up there is no place for an OT to play.

3) If you have a QB going 7th overall, he can go 1st overall. The difference is negligible, and I've seen you argue the golden rule of the NFL draft more than one time on these very boards: if you don't have a franchise QB you don't pass on one.

It's just a bad KC pick that makes no sense.

You are preaching to the choir.

The mocks are not what I would do but what I think will happen.

At this point based on what I've gathered Joeckel is the favorite for the Chiefs.

[SuperPacker]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

You are preaching to the choir.

The mocks are not what I would do but what I think will happen.

At this point based on what I've gathered Joeckel is the favorite for the Chiefs.

You think the Chiefs are going to draft a OT with the #1 pick, when they already have a perfectly good one? This move would do absolutely nothing to improve their situation. This is Andy Reid we are talking about, a relatively smart man, do you not think he realizes that taking Joeckel would be unbelievably stupid?

[Halsey]

I'm not sure what I'd do if I was running the Chiefs, but would it really be the end of the world if they didn't take a QB #1? I'm on board the whole Golden Rule philosophy, but it's not out of the realm of possibility they could find a good QB with pick 33, or by trading up from 33. We've seen some good looking young QBs taken in the second and third round in recent drafts. Maybe the Chiefs sit at 33 and get the next Kaepernick, Dalton or Wilson.

[KCStud]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

You are preaching to the choir.

The mocks are not what I would do but what I think will happen.

At this point based on what I've gathered Joeckel is the favorite for the Chiefs.

Well Scott, assuming this is the case, who would the Chiefs draft in round 2 at 34 to play QB?

Maybe Wilson? I like Nassib and Manuel a lot too.

[T-RICH49]

Originally Posted by KCStud

Well Scott, assuming this is the case, who would the Chiefs draft in round 2 at 34 to play QB?

Maybe Wilson? I like Nassib and Manuel a lot too.

I doubt Wilson lasts to 2nd round

[Iamcanadian]

Originally Posted by T-RICH49

I doubt Wilson lasts to 2nd round

I don't, unless he resurrects his performance at his workout, I could see him going pretty late in round 2, somewhere in the 50's. This guy is getting way overhyped IMO.

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by KCStud

Well Scott, assuming this is the case, who would the Chiefs draft in round 2 at 34 to play QB?

Maybe Wilson? I like Nassib and Manuel a lot too.

I would say the three most likely options would be:

Mike Glennon, North Carolina St.
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
Tyler Wilson, Arkansas

[nepg]

Originally Posted by Scott Wright

You are preaching to the choir.

The mocks are not what I would do but what I think will happen.

At this point based on what I've gathered Joeckel is the favorite for the Chiefs.

How can you let yourself think that something so stupid will happen? Even if they let Albert walk, LT isn't a need.

I'm not totally against not drafting a QB at #1, but Joeckel doesn't do anything for this team. Adds zero wins. Non-QBs they should be looking at at #1 are Star Lotulelei and Dee Milliner. If they can trade back, Alec Ogletree would be my #1 target at that point (for non-QBs).

And for the Patriots, while I'd love to upgrade the DT situation (prefer John Jenkins or Jesse Williams for the two NT look they're rolling with), they have serious needs at CB, WR, and the next biggest need is S - if they re-sign Vollmer and Cannon can play G. Probably looking at Amerson, Poyer, or Ryan with that pick if they don't bite on a WR or Matt Elam.

[YoJoeBucsFan]

Originally Posted by kiwi

Wow. Just wow. You're gonna rely on an unproven Stephenson to be an elite blinside protector of your new rookie QB?

Plus Winston needs to be upgraded as he's a below average pass protector. If Albert left, Tackle would be a massive need for KC.

Joeckel is not much of an upgrade over Stephenson or Winston. He is a very average LT.

[nepg]

Originally Posted by kiwi

Wow. Just wow. You're gonna rely on an unproven Stephenson to be an elite blinside protector of your new rookie QB?

Plus Winston needs to be upgraded as he's a below average pass protector. If Albert left, Tackle would be a massive need for KC.

1. Stephenson is more proven than Joeckel. He's a guy with high upside that was expected to take time to develop. He started a lot of games at LT for the Chiefs and there wasn't much of (if any) drop-off from Albert to Stephenson.

2. Winston had a down year. He'll bounce back. The guy was an All-Pro level RT in 2011.

[KCStud]

Originally Posted by nepg

1. Stephenson is more proven than Joeckel. He's a guy with high upside that was expected to take time to develop. He started a lot of games at LT for the Chiefs and there wasn't much of (if any) drop-off from Albert to Stephenson.

2. Winston had a down year. He'll bounce back. The guy was an All-Pro level RT in 2011.

Stephenson sucked this year. He got his lunch handed to him several times. He couldn't hold Joeckel's jock strap.

I'm going with videa, splat and the rest of the guys here. Stick with the Patriots bro. Your knowledge with the Chiefs needs serious work.

[regoob2]

Originally Posted by vidae

Ugh, not you too Scott.

1) The Chiefs aren't letting Branden Albert walk. Not in a year where they're forced to pay out more of their cap. It makes no sense.

2) With Albert locked up there is no place for an OT to play.

3) If you have a QB going 7th overall, he can go 1st overall. The difference is negligible, and I've seen you argue the golden rule of the NFL draft more than one time on these very boards: if you don't have a franchise QB you don't pass on one.

It's just a bad KC pick that makes no sense.

His golden rule is if you dont have a franchise QB you dont pass on one. They're not passing on a franchise QB. They're passing on a QB.

[Wootylicous]

It's as good as the Chiefs will take Bryan Bulaga thingy.

[Monomach]

I keep seeing this and being really confused.

How can there be twp QBs worthy of being top ten picks, but taking one at #1 is bad value? If a QB is worth a top ten pick, then he's worth the first overall.

If the Chiefs really decide to go after the QB that's 4th, 5th, or 6th on their board in the second round while allowing other teams to take their favorites, they're just choosing to be bad.

I'm not going to say anything about the Bears/Te'o pick and the utterly ridiculous assertion that he was the victim because I'm liable to get too mean and you're just going to ignore me, lol.

[SickwithIt1010]

I could dig on Moore if we move to the 3-4.

[DcmRulz]

There are no QBs worthy of a top ten pick, but they are top 20 talents, which would mean that they're top 10 picks to teams that need a QB. And I'm starting to read more and more about Albert walking/moving inside to G and Joeckel going #1.

I personally don't think that at this point Geno Smith, while my #1 QB is a top 10 talent, and thus worthy of a top 3-5 pick.

That being the case, Andy Reid's system does wonders with non-first round QBs (Kolb, Foles, even Kafka for a bit), so KC getting a solid QB at 33 is possible. (Maybe someone like Glennon, Wilson, Dysert or Nassib?)

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by DcmRulz

And I'm starting to read more and more about Albert walking/moving inside to G and Joeckel going #1.

I can almost guarantee Albert isn't going to be moving to guard.

First of all I'm sure he will let the Chiefs know that he's not on board with that plan.

Secondly, someone is going to pay Albert 28-year-old left tackle money whether it's the Chiefs or another team (Bears? Rams? Chargers? Cardinals?). You don't sign a guy to premium position money and then immediately move him to a non-premium position. Doesn't make sense.

[SolidGold]

Originally Posted by DcmRulz

There are no QBs worthy of a top ten pick, but they are top 20 talents, which would mean that they're top 10 picks to teams that need a QB. And I'm starting to read more and more about Albert walking/moving inside to G and Joeckel going #1.

I personally don't think that at this point Geno Smith, while my #1 QB is a top 10 talent, and thus worthy of a top 3-5 pick.

That being the case, Andy Reid's system does wonders with non-first round QBs (Kolb, Foles, even Kafka for a bit), so KC getting a solid QB at 33 is possible. (Maybe someone like Glennon, Wilson, Dysert or Nassib?)

That's a good point. If they took Joeckel at 1 overall they could always trade back into the first and get a QB they have targeted therefore getting a QB in the first round. I wouldn't blow a number one pick on a QB if they were not worthy of the pick. Teams that draft poorly at the QB position set the franchise back more than those that do not. One only has to reference the Jamarcus Russel debacle to see how damning over drafting a QB can be.

I understand the Chiefs fan base is frustrated and rightfully so but you shouldn't just draft a QB to draft a QB. If you believe that QB is worthy of the pick than by all means draft a QB at number one overall but not QB in this draft at this point has emerged as that guy.

Barkley, Smith, Wilson and Glennon are all on fairly equal ground at this point as the first QB to be chosen. If someone clearly separates themselves from the group than by all means pick him 1st overall but if not you are just inviting mediocrity for another few years as this QB does not pan out and holds the team back.

[Babylon]

Originally Posted by SolidGold

That's a good point. If they took Joeckel at 1 overall they could always trade back into the first and get a QB they have targeted therefore getting a QB in the first round. I wouldn't blow a number one pick on a QB if they were not worthy of the pick. Teams that draft poorly at the QB position set the franchise back more than those that do not. One only has to reference the Jamarcus Russel debacle to see how damning over drafting a QB can be.

I understand the Chiefs fan base is frustrated and rightfully so but you shouldn't just draft a QB to draft a QB. If you believe that QB is worthy of the pick than by all means draft a QB at number one overall but not QB in this draft at this point has emerged as that guy.

Barkley, Smith, Wilson and Glennon are all on fairly equal ground at this point as the first QB to be chosen. If someone clearly separates themselves from the group than by all means pick him 1st overall but if not you are just inviting mediocrity for another few years as this QB does not pan out and holds the team back.

I agree. As long as one of those QBs don't just blow everyone away at the combine you can trade back in or even get your Andy Dalton type early in the second. If someone really wows the chiefs before the draft they should just take them #1.

[Monomach]

Originally Posted by DcmRulz

There are no QBs worthy of a top ten pick, but they are top 20 talents, which would mean that they're top 10 picks to teams that need a QB. And I'm starting to read more and more about Albert walking/moving inside to G and Joeckel going #1.

I personally don't think that at this point Geno Smith, while my #1 QB is a top 10 talent, and thus worthy of a top 3-5 pick.

That being the case, Andy Reid's system does wonders with non-first round QBs (Kolb, Foles, even Kafka for a bit), so KC getting a solid QB at 33 is possible. (Maybe someone like Glennon, Wilson, Dysert or Nassib?)

I just...you can't really think the Chiefs are going to make him the most highly paid guard in the NFL just so they can draft another LT.

The guy's going to either be tagged or be paid like a very good LT by another team because that's what he is. He's not taking a discount and changing his position just because.

[49erNation85]

Love the sf pick. Nicely done.

[Halsey]

No WR in the top 20 is obviously unusual. What are the chances one of the WRs can work his way into being selected much higher than most people are currently anticipating, ala DHB, Donte Stallworth, etc?

[Scott Wright]

Originally Posted by Halsey

No WR in the top 20 is obviously unusual. What are the chances one of the WRs can work his way into being selected much higher than most people are currently anticipating, ala DHB, Donte Stallworth, etc?

It's very possible. I think Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter stand out as potential risers if they work out as well as expected because they are both just so big and fast.