Top Ten Pick and Why

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 12:58 PM

Here is my top ten mock at the moment in whick I offer what could be the deciding factors in each of the selection:

1. Chiefs- QB Geno Smith

Deciding factor:

- I simply can't see Reed waiting for next year to get his QB. He knows how McKnabb allowed him to have a long tenure with the Eagles.

2. Jaguars- DE Bjoren Werner

Deciding factor:

Jaguars have an abysmal pass rush. They run a 4-3 defense and Werner is the best PURE 4-3 end. The fact that he played his college ball in state doesn't hurt.

3. Raiders- DT Star Lotulelei

Deciding factor:

Seymour is gone. The Raiders must keep FA Desmond Bryant and Kelly is highly overpaid and could be a cap casualty. They may lose not just one, but two starting DTs.

4. Eagles- OT Luke Joeckel

Deciding factor:

Eagles are in dire need of O-line help and the best OL prospect will be available when they pick.

5. Lions- CB Dee Millner

Yes, the Lions need some DE help, but it's a deep DE class. They need to add top tier talent to the back end of their defense if they ever hope to ascend to one of the NFL's top rated defenses. Plus, do they want top money tied up in three defensive lineman? Can't see it.

6. Browns- WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Deciding factor:

New DC Ray Horton has gone out of his way to talk about how he loves the versatility of the defensive players on the team and how he wants to play multiple fronts. Could be coach speak; however, the Browns have not had a blue chip WR since....since....wow, have they every had one? This may be strange pick at the moment, but I believe that Patterson is going to gain the reputations that he can be a difference maker on the NFL level and will thus move up the rankings. This is and offensive league, and the bottom line is that the Browns need playmakers to compete and they need to establish a pecking order among their WRs. They have the rest of the draft to address defense and don't be surprised if Horton targets some acquisitions from his former team, the Cardinals.

7. Cardinals- OT Eric Fisher

Deciding factor:

It's no secret that the Cardinal's offensive line is in shambles. They would like to improve upon the QB cluster they have, but there is simply no one available at the #7 pick that comes close to warranting a QB selection. They will take the building block while they are in position to.

8. Bills- QB Matt Barkley

Deciding factor:

Because the Bills have been outspoken about their desire to add a new signal caller, I think they could over reach for Barkley here. He's not that good IMO, but teams will have a new appreciation for Smith and Barkley after see the Senior Bowl QBs perform.

9. Jets- DE Ziggy Ansah

Deciding factor:

The Jets will be a in a great position with a number of pass rushers on the board, so it's going to come down to which one Ryan falls in love with. I think the winner will be Ansah. I think Ryan will see true star potential in Ansah and us him as a model of what he wants the team to look like under the second half of his tenure.

10. Titans- OG Chance Warmack

Deciding factor:

Jake Locker is who we thought he was. Well, some of us. The only way to salvage his career is for him to rely more heavily on the run and once again become a physical team. Also, the O-line in general is extremely old and needs some new blood. Demontre Moore is tempting here, but they still have money tied up in Morgan and Wimbley.

Babylon · 01-31-2013, 01:44 PM

I was going to add the two at the end there but you beat me to it. I would also add if one took the other it would work too.

You hit the nail on the head with the Titans needing some serious help on the O-line and more of a power running game. Might as well add a TE and a reliable #1 receiver too.

CrossOfDeath · 01-31-2013, 02:26 PM

Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

Babylon · 01-31-2013, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath

Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

So it wasn't like FSU played a bunch of ranked teams this year. One of the two really good teams they faced this year Florida (other being Clemson) he had 3.5 sacks. I guess if there is a counter argument to everything then i would say maybe Jeff Driskel held the ball too long or the Florida O-line stinks, both of which may be true.

Also noticable was that opposing offenses tended to go the opposite direction of where Werner was lined up, especially after Carradine went down. He had 8 sacks against Wake, Miami, Florida and Maryland so that competition is what it is. You could probably come up with an argument for anyone you tried to make a case against.

I happen to agree that the effort isn't 100% all the time but i think he's still raw in terms of playing football and at the next level he'll be in a rotation where he sees half the defensive snaps he did at FSU, at least early in his career.

Bottom line i think he's a 6-10 range player and can't really see him getting by both Cleveland and Tennessee.

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath

Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

I personally believe he is a little overrated, but it doesn't mean that teams agree with me. He's a clean player with no off the field concerns or major injuries and this helps his stock. And like I said, he is the best pure 4-3 DE amongst the ones rated in the first half of the round.

duesouth · 02-01-2013, 04:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath

Bjoern Werner is the single most overrated player in the draft IMO. Never been impressed. He puts up huge numbers against D2 and low level D1 teams. He has 4.5 career sacks against ranked teams and 0 against NFL caliber tackles. He plays on the left side going against the lesser athlete at RT and still doesn't dominant in big games.

Everyone wants to say Tank Carradine is a product of Bjoern Werner opposite him, however, if you watch their sacks it is the exact opposite. Tank Carradine was consistantly creating his own pass rusher and getting his own sacks while many of Werner's came when Jenkins(11) and Carradine(12) forced the QB toward him.

He has been marked as a high motor and high effort guy when in reality if his first rush is shut down then he gives up. I have not watched every defender in the draft, however, all the defenders I have watched Werner is easily the guy who is jogging and has his hands on hips the most.

His athletic ability is highly overrated. He has a decent first step to go along with good reaction times allowing for him to get off the ball in a hurry. After his great get off it is a plateu. He doesn't have great change of direction skills, long speed or flexibility.

Basically 2nd overall is disgusting. Don't feel bad you are not the only one as he has been rated in the Top 3 all year. I would bet the farm when April comes around he will not even be Top 10.

100% agree. I'm a Jags fan and am getting worried about so many people mocking Werner to us. I wouldn't be Blaine Gabbert

if we took him, but I'd certainly be

!!

The other thing that I questioned with Werner is his lack of ability to set an edge in the run game. There was an FSU fan on here who disagreed...

I saw 8 of FSU's games this season and I would say only the Florida game performance came close to me thinking he's a top 15 talent. From tape alone (I'll build in Combine measurements) I have a 2nd round grade on him. I'd take Carradine ahead of him even with the injury. Jenkins might even be better - might be quicker off the edge, although a little one dimensional perhaps.

But lots of questions with Werner. Why nothing in the Bowl game - Northern Illinois!!! I know the QB was mobile, but still he did nothing. Why the middle part of the season with poor production? The 1.5 sacks against the U were only because Seantrel Henderson was tired and outside of those he was getting shut out. How long are his arms? What's that 10 yard split time going to be? Can he change direction?

vidae · 01-31-2013, 02:23 PM

I love Geno and the write-up makes sense, so yay for you.

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae

I love Geno and the write-up makes sense, so yay for you.

Thanks, I thought it did, but someone told me otherwise.

T-RICH49 · 01-31-2013, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vidae

I love Geno and the write-up makes sense, so yay for you.

what he said x1,000,000

CrossOfDeath · 01-31-2013, 02:34 PM

As a Browns fan the Cordarrelle Patterson pick and write up are pretty bad as well. There is a reason Josh Gordon was taken with a 2nd in the supplemental draft after not playing for 2 seasons. The guy has deep speed unlike many in the NFL to go with a big body and good set of hands. He didn't even start until a quarter of the way into the season and put up some of if not the best rookie numbers in the league. He did not have the luxury of having a seasoned veteran or star rookie throwing him the ball. He is only going to get better from this point forward and is a legit #1 option.

Greg Little is also an improving young player only in his 2nd season who is getting a lot of heat for drops, however, if you look at the facts he only dropped 1 pass after the 6 to start the season up to the first Baltimore game. He has since fixed his drops issues and toward the end of the season was making plays after the catch.

Cleveland really needs a playmaking TE and more consistant QB for these young WRs to continue to develope. The last thing they need is another young inexperienced and raw prospect. The only way Cleveland should be looking at a WR in the drafts first round is if there were a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green type cannot miss prospect.

Obviously we cannot predict what is going to happen in free agency, but the pick is going to come down to the best defender or QB that we couldn't address in free agency. As it stands now the biggest needs are Pass Rusher, Corner, Free Saftey and Quarterback.

The way you have the board falling I would take anyone of Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo(as risky as it may be) or Kenny Vaccaro(getting the Barron treatment being underrated bc of position).

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath

As a Browns fan the Cordarrelle Patterson pick and write up are pretty bad as well. There is a reason Josh Gordon was taken with a 2nd in the supplemental draft after not playing for 2 seasons. The guy has deep speed unlike many in the NFL to go with a big body and good set of hands. He didn't even start until a quarter of the way into the season and put up some of if not the best rookie numbers in the league. He did not have the luxury of having a seasoned veteran or star rookie throwing him the ball. He is only going to get better from this point forward and is a legit #1 option.

Greg Little is also an improving young player only in his 2nd season who is getting a lot of heat for drops, however, if you look at the facts he only dropped 1 pass after the 6 to start the season up to the first Baltimore game. He has since fixed his drops issues and toward the end of the season was making plays after the catch.

Cleveland really needs a playmaking TE and more consistant QB for these young WRs to continue to develope. The last thing they need is another young inexperienced and raw prospect. The only way Cleveland should be looking at a WR in the drafts first round is if there were a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green type cannot miss prospect.

Obviously we cannot predict what is going to happen in free agency, but the pick is going to come down to the best defender or QB that we couldn't address in free agency. As it stands now the biggest needs are Pass Rusher, Corner, Free Saftey and Quarterback.

The way you have the board falling I would take anyone of Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo(as risky as it may be) or Kenny Vaccaro(getting the Barron treatment being underrated bc of position).

That's fine. The thing is, the offense still needs to improve by leaps and bounds. Gordon shows great ability, but is he reliable at this point? Far from it. Does he run the full route tree? I haven't seen it. You can disagree that Patterson is the way to go, but you really can't disagree that he would add a great offensive weapon to the team and make you offense explosive. Have you seen Atlanta's receivers?

As far as TE, obviously there is not TE to be had at the #6 pick. As far as Little, he's "pretty bad" as a player. Oh, and Jordan and Mingo have MUCH to prove in my book.

duesouth · 02-01-2013, 04:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrossOfDeath

or Kenny Vaccaro(getting the Barron treatment being underrated bc of position).

In general the league wants safeties to be able to cover man to man these days - so Vaccaro being superb in press man coverage means he's a top 10 lock for me. That was the question with Barron - it certainly isn't with Vaccaro.

bitonti · 01-31-2013, 03:24 PM

this andy reid - mcnabb - geno smith connection is tenuous at best.

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti

this andy reid - mcnabb - geno smith connection is tenuous at best.

How so? In 1999, Reid was a rookie HC and McNabb was the team's #1 pick. Reid is in is first year with the Chefs, their #1 need clearly is QB.

Also, many people thought McNabb was picked too high, but obvious Andy didn't care because he knew he was right about the pick. So I don't know if I'd call it a connection, but the situtions somewhat parallel each other.

bitonti · 02-01-2013, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

How so? In 1999, Reid was a rookie HC and McNabb was the team's #1 pick. Reid is in is first year with the Chefs, their #1 need clearly is QB.

Also, many people thought McNabb was picked too high, but obvious Andy didn't care because he knew he was right about the pick. So I don't know if I'd call it a connection, but the situtions somewhat parallel each other.

Reid went to BYU, so did Ziggy Ansah. Therefore Ziggy Ansah will go number one. That's more of a connection.

The main difference between Geno and McNabb is that was a great QB year and this is an awful QB year.

Black Bolt · 02-01-2013, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bitonti

Reid went to BYU, so did Ziggy Ansah. Therefore Ziggy Ansah will go number one. That's more of a connection.

The main difference between Geno and McNabb is that was a great QB year and this is an awful QB year.

Okay, that makes absolute NO sense whatsoever. Your attempt as sarcasm falls way short as a result. Oh, and by the way, the ony one of the five first round QBs that really panned out was the one Reid selected and developed.

bitonti · 02-01-2013, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

Oh, and by the way, the ony one of the five first round QBs that really panned out was the one Reid selected and developed.

The key to that statement is that Reid selected McNabb. It's possible he doesn't select Geno at 1 just cause he's the only QB with even close to a rd 1 grade. We shall see.

bitonti · 02-01-2013, 01:35 PM

double post

eliasrapp98 · 01-31-2013, 04:40 PM

Can you stop saying that the Eagles NEED an OL... We had 4 injured starters last year so of course the line sucked, but next year we have Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Watkins, Herremans... I agree we should draft an OL, but c'mon, we don't NEED an OL.

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eliasrapp98

Can you stop saying that the Eagles NEED an OL... We had 4 injured starters last year so of course the line sucked, but next year we have Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Watkins, Herremans... I agree we should draft an OL, but c'mon, we don't NEED an OL.

I said the Eagles need O-line help and I doubt anyone disagrees with that.

Lil Quip · 02-01-2013, 01:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

I said the Eagles need O-line help and I doubt anyone disagrees with that.

Needing help on the OL and spending a top five pick on an elite LT are two very very different things.

This train of thought is becoming eerily similar to the Joeckel BPA vs. Geno for the chiefs. Jason Peters was considered an elite LT before last season. Some argued less than ONE year ago he was the best LT in the league. I will put on my 'not a doctor' cap here. Not sure how long it takes to come back 100% from an achilles, if you can, if rupturing it twice was somewhat redundant, etc. That being said, he hurt it last last may. Given good rehab, which didn't work out last time, he has a bit over a year to recover.

pierce2walker · 01-31-2013, 06:52 PM

How is locker "who you thought he was"? He had an injury plagued season behind a terrible OL. I think its fair to say he is still TBD. While interior OL is a major need, the Titans passed on DeCastro at 20 last year so I don't see why would go OG this year at #10, especially after the HC said they don't believe in drafting interior OL in round 1 following that draft. This philosophy should be fine this year as well with a very deep OL class.

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pierce2walker

How is locker "who you thought he was"? He had an injury plagued season behind a terrible OL. I think its fair to say he is still TBD. While interior OL is a major need, the Titans passed on DeCastro at 20 last year so I don't see why would go OG this year at #10, especially after the HC said they don't believe in drafting interior OL in round 1 following that draft. This philosophy should be fine this year as well with a very deep OL class.

The fact that the passed on interior line last year is one of the chief reasons why they could go interior line this year. Are you aware of the age and performance of their line? Finally, Warmack is a rare prospect even compared to DeCastro.

As far as Locker, he sucks in the NFL just like he sucked in college. That's my opinion on him and it's not exactly new.

pierce2walker · 01-31-2013, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Bolt

The fact that the passed on interior line last year is one of the chief reasons why they could go interior line this year. Are you aware of the age and performance of their line? Finally, Warmack is a rare prospect even compared to DeCastro.

As far as Locker, he sucks in the NFL just like he sucked in college. That's my opinion on him and it's not exactly new.

Could they go OL? It's not impossible, but I'd say unlikely at this point. The Titans HC (who was a former OL coach) stated that their philosophy was that they did not believe in taking interior OL in round 1 (he said they only believe in taking OTs in round 1). I don't see why that philosophy wouldn't carry over to this year. Yes, I'm very aware of the OL situation, thus why I said that "interior OL is a major need", but that doesn't mean that they have to draft an OG at #10, especially considering that OGs are rarely picked in the top 10, also added the fact that this is a very deep OL class. I do agree that Warmack is a rare prospect, but DeCastro was also considered to be elite last year. Maybe not quite the same prospect, but still elite. The fact of the matter is that they both play OG. Warmack is a better prospect than DeCastro, but theres also a huge different between pick #20 and pick #10. So is Warmack really lightyears ahead of DeCastro PLUS the fact that the Titans have been against drafting OL in round 1 (nonetheless at #10)? That's why I say its unlikely.

In regards to Locker, as I said he had an injury riddled season behind an OL that we both agree is really bad. I don't think its fair to judge a 1st year starter based on that kind of year. But if you want your argument to purely consist of "he sucks", then I guess there's not much that will persuade you.

Black Bolt · 01-31-2013, 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pierce2walker

Could they go OL? It's not impossible, but I'd say unlikely at this point. The Titans HC (who was a former OL coach) stated that their philosophy was that they did not believe in taking interior OL in round 1 (he said they only believe in taking OTs in round 1). I don't see why that philosophy wouldn't carry over to this year. Yes, I'm very aware of the OL situation, thus why I said that "interior OL is a major need", but that doesn't mean that they have to draft an OG at #10, especially considering that OGs are rarely picked in the top 10, also added the fact that this is a very deep OL class. I do agree that Warmack is a rare prospect, but DeCastro was also considered to be elite last year. Maybe not quite the same prospect, but still elite. The fact of the matter is that they both play OG. Warmack is a better prospect than DeCastro, but theres also a huge different between pick #20 and pick #10. So is Warmack really lightyears ahead of DeCastro PLUS the fact that the Titans have been against drafting OL in round 1 (nonetheless at #10)? That's why I say its unlikely.

In regards to Locker, as I said he had an injury riddled season behind an OL that we both agree is really bad. I don't think its fair to judge a 1st year starter based on that kind of year. But if you want your argument to purely consist of "he sucks", then I guess there's not much that will persuade you.

Ranking ten spots higher does not equal light years better. Our HC Dennis Allen said that the ZBS is the best blocking system their is. A year later, we are moving to a power blocking system. What coaches say is far from permanent. Enough about Locker, this thread is not about him. Suffice it for me to say AGAIN, I am not simply judging him on his performance in the NFL, but also entering the NFL as a college prospect.