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Old 03-04-2013, 10:03 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Default Is Landry Jones Undervalued?

Everyone seems to be down on Landry Jones as a prospect. Why is that? Is it for vague reasons such as "unable to win the big game"? Not "clutch"? Because if you look at his college stats, the man has A.) consistently put up spectacular numbers in terms of completion %, TD passes, and Yards Per Attempt B.) consistently been a winner for his four years at Oklahoma. This is the kind of resume that usually gets QBs picked in the top-10, but we are not talking about Landry Jones as a top-10 prospect.

I'm here to say that Landry Jones might just be undervalued, and that whoever picks him in this year's draft might be getting the real sleeper of this draft a la Russell Wilson last year. This guy could easily be the best QB of this draft and have a career that is almost as good as Andrew Luck, and could clearly be better than somebody like Andy Dalton.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:07 AM    (permalink
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yes. I think in the end he could very well be the best QB from this class. Funny you can say that about 10 guys.

He struggled this past season for numerous reasons, he didn't have a favorite WR like he did in the past, and OU didn't have a very good run game.

Sure he needs work, but he's got all the tools just needs a little coaching. To me he's a similar prospect as Nick Foles was coming out last season
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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Can you tell me what are Landry Jones' 5 best wins the last two seasons??

His best two wins last season??

I have this impression Jones comes up small on the big stage, consistently.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Can you tell me what are Landry Jones' 5 best wins the last two seasons??

His best two wins last season??

I have this impression Jones comes up small on the big stage, consistently.
"Comes up small on the big stage" is a completely vague and nebulous concept that ultimately means nothing.

John Elway was accused of "coming up small" despite consistently winning regular season games for most of his career until he won two Super Bowls in his late 30s.

Joe Flacco was accused of "coming up small" despite consistently winning games in the regular season until recently.

I'm a firm believer that consistency is far more valuable as a projective tool than "winning big games". Because winning games is often about lucky bounces in a play or two. Consistent winning over a long stretch of time is about talent and preparation.

At Oklahoma, Landry Jones consistently won 10+ games every year. He put up good completion % (63%+ last three years) and threw 38, 29, and 30 TDs in his last three years. He had a Yards Per Attempt of just under 8.0 consistently in his last three years.

That, to me, is the sign of a consistently good QB. If he a few lucky bounces fall his way, he might have won a title at Oklahoma, but he didn't. When he gets drafted into the NFL he'll be consistently good as well, and that's all you can ask of your QB in the NFL. Whether he wins a Super Bowl or not will be about how good his defense will be, and how lucky he gets in the playoffs.
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Old 03-04-2013, 02:46 PM    (permalink
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"Comes up small on the big stage" is a completely vague and nebulous concept that ultimately means nothing.

John Elway was accused of "coming up small" despite consistently winning regular season games for most of his career until he won two Super Bowls in his late 30s.

Joe Flacco was accused of "coming up small" despite consistently winning games in the regular season until recently.

I'm a firm believer that consistency is far more valuable as a projective tool than "winning big games". Because winning games is often about lucky bounces in a play or two. Consistent winning over a long stretch of time is about talent and preparation.

At Oklahoma, Landry Jones consistently won 10+ games every year. He put up good completion % (63%+ last three years) and threw 38, 29, and 30 TDs in his last three years. He had a Yards Per Attempt of just under 8.0 consistently in his last three years.

That, to me, is the sign of a consistently good QB. If he a few lucky bounces fall his way, he might have won a title at Oklahoma, but he didn't. When he gets drafted into the NFL he'll be consistently good as well, and that's all you can ask of your QB in the NFL. Whether he wins a Super Bowl or not will be about how good his defense will be, and how lucky he gets in the playoffs.
I totally agree with You about Jones... I think the sports media picked up on the attitude of a lot of OU fans about Jones because He didn't win a National Championship.. and made a couple of critical mistakes... What they don't realize is you dont win National Championships with a 50th Ranked defense.. At OU it is National championship or bust.. Jones averaged 314 yards per game in 4 years over all his games... Stats aren't all there is but they Shouldnt totally be discounted either.. They dont fit the montra reputation that people have about him.. Either he was never pressured or does fine with pressure.. Most people dont know that Landry threw 2183 passing in collage.. RG111 and Andrew Luck threw for 2300 combined.. Landry's ratio of sacks to ints' is the same as lucks.. when you account for twice the throws. RG111 took 79 sacks for his 1100 attempts ... He had a high percentage completion rate rate low interception rate.. Makes me wonder if he didnt just take the sack.. Throwing the ball away is an attempt that counts against you and trying to complete the pass could result in an INT.. but taking the sack isnt any better at dealing with pressure.. Your team has to punt and it results in a turnover...

I am from NM and went to the same High School as Jones..SO yes I am a biased homer. In High School in 2.years he threw for 7000 yards and 84 tds... two state championships.. He is getting Screwed right now by the sports media.. Its like he's being punished.. the Lewin forecast and George Whitfeilds opinion shouldnt be ignored... Four years of averaging 10 wins 4161 yards a year with 30 td's a year.. 12 int's 12 sacks 575 attempts and 63% completion What people forget is out of the gun a 10 yard completion is a 20 yard pass. His arm is that good.. How he can be ranked 10th or 8th and be talked about as a mid round back up... is ridiculous.. but GM's may see what we see.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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Jones has everything physically you look for in a franchise QB, size, arm strength etc. but something is missing mentally. His pocket presence is mediocre and you see him panic when things don't go as desired. These are things that are very difficult to overcome through training, a QB is either mentally tough or he's not and Jones isn't, end of story.
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Old 03-04-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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Jones has everything physically you look for in a franchise QB, size, arm strength etc. but something is missing mentally. His pocket presence is mediocre and you see him panic when things don't go as desired. These are things that are very difficult to overcome through training, a QB is either mentally tough or he's not and Jones isn't, end of story.
He's sort of a poor man's Brandon Weeden.
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Old 03-04-2013, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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He's sort of a poor man's Brandon Weeden.
I don't think you are being too kind to Weedon. Jones panics in the pocket when pressured, he lacks any mental toughness, Weedon was just too old to be worth a 1st rounder and the Cleveland management team paniced itself after losing out in the RG111 trade.
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Old 03-04-2013, 12:30 PM    (permalink
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I don't think you are being too kind to Weedon. Jones panics in the pocket when pressured, he lacks any mental toughness, Weedon was just too old to be worth a 1st rounder and the Cleveland management team paniced itself after losing out in the RG111 trade.
You are right. A homeless Weeden with a flask of Scotch in his tweed blazer and a pair of disgarded Wolverine work boots.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:21 AM    (permalink
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If the Patriots trade Mallet I would like for us to take a look at Jones. He has the tools you want but would really benefit from sitting and learning behind a good NFL QB and coaching staff.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:23 AM    (permalink
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It's funny how much overrated Jones was a year ago and now he could be one of the biggest steals in the draft. Some team will get a decent qb maybe in the 3rd round.

I think he could be a valuable backup at the very least.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:30 AM    (permalink
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i thought he was massively overrated from day one, but you barely know he exists anymore because no one cares.

I do think hes become undervalued though, and its weird because i was legitimately a hater of his with any first round talks. i think he kind of compares to JP Losman personally, but he can definitely be better than that
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Not coming up in the big game is kind of a myth. In his career, he had 17 big games (rivals, championship games, bowl games, highly ranked teams). Oklahoma was 12-5 in those games. Jones completed 63.3% of his passes, averaged 328 yards per game, and had 29 TDs to 16 INTs. A few of those losses were games with scores like 45-38. Can you really blame Jones for a loss when the offense puts up 7 TDs?

You want to criticize Jones for "not coming up in big games" as a lack of leadership, intangibles, or it factors? Why not kill Tyler Wilson for the same thing. His coach leaves and the team implodes. Where is the leadership there? An SEC team that is a year removed from being a top-five team should not go 4-8 with a loss to UL-Monroe. Jones will be a much better pro than most think an I would take him well before a guy like Wilson.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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Everyone seems to be down on Landry Jones as a prospect. Why is that? Is it for vague reasons such as "unable to win the big game"? Not "clutch"? Because if you look at his college stats, the man has A.) consistently put up spectacular numbers in terms of completion %, TD passes, and Yards Per Attempt B.) consistently been a winner for his four years at Oklahoma. This is the kind of resume that usually gets QBs picked in the top-10, but we are not talking about Landry Jones as a top-10 prospect.

I'm here to say that Landry Jones might just be undervalued, and that whoever picks him in this year's draft might be getting the real sleeper of this draft a la Russell Wilson last year. This guy could easily be the best QB of this draft and have a career that is almost as good as Andrew Luck, and could clearly be better than somebody like Andy Dalton.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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Jones will be drafted in rounds 3-5, maybe the light goes on but obviously, GM's and scouts doubt it and feel that his flaws are uncorrectable. Personably I think every QB in this year's class has serious flaws and inconsistencies, Jones are just worse than most.
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Old 03-04-2013, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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Jones will be drafted in rounds 3-5, maybe the light goes on but obviously, GM's and scouts doubt it and feel that his flaws are uncorrectable. Personably I think every QB in this year's class has serious flaws and inconsistencies, Jones are just worse than most.
How can you possibly say that Landry Jones, who put up great stats (high completion %, around 30 TDs every year, nearly 8.0 YPA every year) and won 10+ games every year at Oklahoma, is worst in any way than guys like Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib, all of whom have neither the stats nor the wins that Jones has? And Jones has prototypical size and arm strength for a QB prospect as well.

It's actually pretty insane how little people think of this guy.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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How can you possibly say that Landry Jones, who put up great stats (high completion %, around 30 TDs every year, nearly 8.0 YPA every year) and won 10+ games every year at Oklahoma, is worst in any way than guys like Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib, all of whom have neither the stats nor the wins that Jones has? And Jones has prototypical size and arm strength for a QB prospect as well.

It's actually pretty insane how little people think of this guy.
I'm not enamoured by any of those either, it's a very mediocre class of QB's, but to compare the stats of QB's who played on mediocre college teams to those of Jones who played on a top Division 1 program, isn't realistic, Oklahoma QB's are always going to look good on paper but that isn't how GM's and pro scouts judge a QB prospect. They look to see how he performs when he is pressured and Jones comes apart everytime he is faced with somebody in his face or even thinks somebody is in his face. He completely lacks mental toughness and those types usually fail at the next level.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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I'm not enamoured by any of those either, it's a very mediocre class of QB's, but to compare the stats of QB's who played on mediocre college teams to those of Jones who played on a top Division 1 program, isn't realistic, Oklahoma QB's are always going to look good on paper but that isn't how GM's and pro scouts judge a QB prospect. They look to see how he performs when he is pressured and Jones comes apart everytime he is faced with somebody in his face or even thinks somebody is in his face. He completely lacks mental toughness and those types usually fail at the next level.
Again, how can you definitively say that someone lacks "mental toughness"? Do you know the guy? Have you played alongside him or coached him in high-leverage situations?

That is just not realistic for someone like you to make that claim about a person.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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I'm not enamoured by any of those either, it's a very mediocre class of QB's, but to compare the stats of QB's who played on mediocre college teams to those of Jones who played on a top Division 1 program, isn't realistic, Oklahoma QB's are always going to look good on paper but that isn't how GM's and pro scouts judge a QB prospect. They look to see how he performs when he is pressured and Jones comes apart everytime he is faced with somebody in his face or even thinks somebody is in his face. He completely lacks mental toughness and those types usually fail at the next level.
This^. The OP is in love with statitics.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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How can you possibly say that Landry Jones, who put up great stats (high completion %, around 30 TDs every year, nearly 8.0 YPA every year) and won 10+ games every year at Oklahoma, is worst in any way than guys like Tyler Bray, Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon, and Ryan Nassib, all of whom have neither the stats nor the wins that Jones has?
Because scouting doesn't include wins and stats usually.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Because scouting doesn't include wins and stats usually.
It would be silly to ignore a disparity between two prospects in terms of important stats like completion percentage, which historically has a high correlation to future NFL success (or more commonly a high correlation to LACK of NFL success if completion % is low as it is with a number of prospects like Mike Glennon and Tyler Bray).
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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It would be silly to ignore a disparity between two prospects in terms of important stats like completion percentage, which historically has a high correlation to future NFL success (or more commonly a high correlation to LACK of NFL success if completion % is low as it is with a number of prospects like Mike Glennon and Tyler Bray).
It only has a correlation when 2 prospects are considered to have a realistic shot to be successful at the next level, it means little when a prospect fails the eye test as Jones does.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:13 AM    (permalink
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I think pocket presence may be his biggest issue. He has a little Blaine Gabbert in him. An NFL QB can't **** himself when there's pressure on him.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:19 AM    (permalink
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I think pocket presence may be his biggest issue. He has a little Blaine Gabbert in him. An NFL QB can't **** himself when there's pressure on him.
Here's the difference, though.

Blaine Gabbert stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2009,Missouri, Big 12, SO, QB, 262, 445, 58.9,3593, 8.1, 8.2, 24, 9, 140.5
2010,Missouri, Big 12, JR, QB, 301, 475, 63.4,3186, 6.7, 6.5, 16, 9, 127.0

Landry Jones stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2011,Oklahoma,Big 12,JR, QB, 355, 562, 63.2, 4463, 7.9, 7.8, 29, 15, 141.6
2012,Oklahoma,Big 12,SR, QB, 367, 555, 66.1, 4267, 7.7, 7.9, 30, 11, 144.6

Higher completion percentage, higher yardage, more consistently solid Y/A, more TD passes.

Gabbert wasn't a great prospect coming out of college based on his production, so it isn't any surprise that he sucked in the NFL. However, you don't be as consistently good as Jones has been if you're "scared in the pocket" constantly.
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Old 03-04-2013, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Here's the difference, though.

Blaine Gabbert stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2009,Missouri, Big 12, SO, QB, 262, 445, 58.9,3593, 8.1, 8.2, 24, 9, 140.5
2010,Missouri, Big 12, JR, QB, 301, 475, 63.4,3186, 6.7, 6.5, 16, 9, 127.0

Landry Jones stats last two years in college:

Year, School, Conf, Class, Pos, Cmp, Att, Pct, Yds, Y/A, AY/A, TD, Int, Rate
2011,Oklahoma,Big 12,JR, QB, 355, 562, 63.2, 4463, 7.9, 7.8, 29, 15, 141.6
2012,Oklahoma,Big 12,SR, QB, 367, 555, 66.1, 4267, 7.7, 7.9, 30, 11, 144.6

Higher completion percentage, higher yardage, more consistently solid Y/A, more TD passes.

Gabbert wasn't a great prospect coming out of college based on his production, so it isn't any surprise that he sucked in the NFL. However, you don't be as consistently good as Jones has been if you're "scared in the pocket" constantly.
Yeah, but Oklahoma consistently has good OL's while Missouri has mediocre ones and adding in Gabbert's Soph year is hardly worth noting.
Jones is fine as long as he is clean in the pocket but comes apart when pressured even a little. Pro QB's get even less time to throw a ball and I seriously doubt Jones can handle it and I seriously doubt pro scouts and GM's feel he can either.
The one attribute that all pro QB's must have is mental toughness and that is Jones's major weakness. Nobody is denying that he has the physical tools but if he cannot standout in this mediocre class of QB's, the likelihood, he'll standout at the next level, is practically nil.
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