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Old 04-02-2013, 08:55 PM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Default Prediction: The 49ers defense will not finish top-10 in 2013

I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:59 PM    (permalink
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:59 PM    (permalink
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I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.
You're "sick of people" huh? Taking it pretty personal there, aren't ya buddy? If you say so. Good luck with that.
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:00 PM    (permalink
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I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.
And Aldon Smith is moving in an upward direction still.
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:10 PM    (permalink
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Willis, Brooks, McDonald, Bowman, Aldon Smith, Culliver, and Brown are on the severe decline?

And who assumed the 49ers defense would be a top ten unit "forever and forever"? Please, I'd like to know who these people are and what exactly was said.
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Old 04-03-2013, 02:40 PM    (permalink
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Willis, Brooks, McDonald, Bowman, Aldon Smith, Culliver, and Brown are on the severe decline?
Willis and Bowman are great players who are still in their prime. However, they also happen to play the least important position on defense: inside linebacker.

If the secondary isn't covering, and the pass rush isn't getting there, the best inside linebackers in the world don't matter. We saw that last year in the latter half of the season and in the playoffs.

Ahmad Brooks is an average player. Ray McDonald is nothing special. Cris Culliver gets burnt in coverage often. Terrel Brown is no great talent.

Aldon Smith is good, but without Justin Smith holding guards I don't see a special 1-on-1 pass rusher capable of beating individual blocks.

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And who assumed the 49ers defense would be a top ten unit "forever and forever"? Please, I'd like to know who these people are and what exactly was said.
There's just a general sentiment on this forum that "let's pencil in the 49ers as the best team! Their defense is a lockdown unit!". I think their offense will be great, but I also think that the defense will not be so great and they will end up looking like the 2010 Saints.
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Old 04-06-2013, 08:35 PM    (permalink
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Willis and Bowman are great players who are still in their prime. However, they also happen to play the least important position on defense: inside linebacker.

If the secondary isn't covering, and the pass rush isn't getting there, the best inside linebackers in the world don't matter. We saw that last year in the latter half of the season and in the playoffs.

Ahmad Brooks is an average player. Ray McDonald is nothing special. Cris Culliver gets burnt in coverage often. Terrel Brown is no great talent.

Aldon Smith is good, but without Justin Smith holding guards I don't see a special 1-on-1 pass rusher capable of beating individual blocks.



There's just a general sentiment on this forum that "let's pencil in the 49ers as the best team! Their defense is a lockdown unit!". I think their offense will be great, but I also think that the defense will not be so great and they will end up looking like the 2010 Saints.

where do we start?

ILB the least important position? Well, MLBs are generally the QBs of defenses, so I dont exactly buy that. Lets think back on the great MLBs of the game in recent years...Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher...to bring anyone else up would honestly be a disservice to Pat Willis, because there is no other ILB in the past 20 years besides those two who can even compare to Pat Willis...Those guys have played with a revolving door of players throughout their careers, and their defenses have always been great....And if you remember, Pat Willis instantly transformed this 49er defense from his rookie season. The 49er D used to stink, they instantly got WAY better when they drafted Pat Willis, and they have built a powerhouse D around him. And having the two best ILBs in the game is huge, to say that any position isnt important is ridiculous. Yes, its true its not that hard to find ILBs that can plug in and be productive, but game-changers are game-changers, and thats what P Will and Bowman are.

OK, onto Aldon Smith. He has combined for damn near 40 sacks in his first 2 seasons as a pro and youre saying that its because of Justin Smith holding linemen for him??? GTFOH!!!!! Have you watched the kid play? He is basically on par with Von Miller. He is an absolute freak athlete, for you to say he cant beat people 1-on-1 is absolutely ridiculous. Truth is, very few offensive lineman can take him 1-on-1. The reality is teams have adjusted by having their QBs take quick drops and make quick throws and send extra blockers at Aldon because they know what he can do. That, more than anything, is the reason why he didnt keep putting up gaudy numbers late in the season.

Ahmad Brooks is average? Maybe if you compare him to the rest of the players on the 49er defense. He is a very good OLB and most teams would love to have him, theres a reason the 49ers locked him up with a big extension.

Chris Culliver is a young corner who gets beat some, but he is an up-and-comer. He is a great competitor and plays with the confidence and short memory you need as a corner. I believe he will develop into a very solid starting cornerback in this league. He will be taking the job of Tarrell Brown, who is a pretty average player, this year, and I think it will be a breakout year for him. I see the 49ers starting Culliver and Aso, with Rogers being the slot guy and Brown being the dime back. I think Aso will return to form and start locking guys up - I think his play will resemble that of Rogers in 2011. Whitner is a very good starting SS. Instinctive, smart player, good range, big hitter. His main drawback is he has no hands, but thats why hes a DB. Im concerned about the FS position, losing Goldson was huge and Dahl is a servicable starter at best. But I believe theyre gonna either sign C Wood, or draft a safety.

Justin Smith can still play, youre going overboard acting like he is completely over the hill just cuz he got hurt last year. He might not be elite anymore, but hes still damn good. And with McDonald and Dorsey, thats a very solid group along the DL.

And lets not forget that they have a glutton of draft picks to bring in young talent across the board, and very few pressing needs. I would expect that they will bring in a rangy FS with coverage skills, a run-stuffing NT, a DE to grrom to replace Smith, and another pass-rusher.

And they have a great defensive coordinator.

To me, this is the best defense in the league. They have one of the best groups of LBs in NFL history IMO, and very deep and solid groups along the DL and secondary.
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:38 PM    (permalink
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And lets not forget that they have a glutton of draft picks to bring in young talent across the board, and very few pressing needs. I would expect that they will bring in a rangy FS with coverage skills, a run-stuffing NT, a DE to grrom to replace Smith, and another pass-rusher.

And they have a great defensive coordinator.
This is something that should not be ignored. With all the solid talent we have on that side of the ball already I think we are going to spend most of our early picks on defense. We already have our QB. RB should be fine for another year or two with Gore, Hunter (depending on injury), and James. I don't think we'll spend an early pick there. WR could be a pick in the mid rounds. Crabs, Boldin, Manningham, and Jenkins was just added last year in the 1st round. TE could be a mid-late round pick as well. Still have Davis. Imagine we'll look for someone to try and fill Walker's role. Offensive line is set, except maybe for C. Depends on how well they like the interior guys we've drafted in recent years, Kilgore and Looney.

So... maybe a C and/or WR could be picked within the first 3 or 4 rounds. We have 6 total picks in the first 4 rounds. The other picks should be used on the areas that you mentioned above.

I see people mentioning the Rams getting stronger all the time around here due to the number of draft picks they have, but we are already a strong team and have a number of picks as well... the players picked on the defensive side of the ball should all get to learn from very good/great veteran players in front of them, and strong coaching. Only a FS could I realistically see starting right away. Which is why I'd be fine with trading up to get Vaccaro.

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Old 04-07-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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This is something that should not be ignored. With all the solid talent we have on that side of the ball already I think we are going to spend most of our early picks on defense. We already have our QB. RB should be fine for another year or two with Gore, Hunter (depending on injury), and James. I don't think we'll spend an early pick there. WR could be a pick in the mid rounds. Crabs, Boldin, Manningham, and Jenkins was just added last year in the 1st round. TE could be a mid-late round pick as well. Still have Davis. Imagine we'll look for someone to try and fill Walker's role. Offensive line is set, except maybe for C. Depends on how well they like the interior guys we've drafted in recent years, Kilgore and Looney.

So... maybe a C and/or WR could be picked within the first 3 or 4 rounds. We have 6 total picks in the first 4 rounds. The other picks should be used on the areas that you mentioned above.

I see people mentioning the Rams getting stronger all the time around here due to the number of draft picks they have, but we are already a strong team and have a number of picks as well... the players picked on the defensive side of the ball should all get to learn from very good/great veteran players in front of them, and strong coaching. Only a FS could I realistically see starting right away. Which is why I'd be fine with trading up to get Vaccaro.
yea I think a trade up for Vaccaro would make a lot of sense. It would really complete the defense. Either that or a trade up for Tavon Austin, which would add a lot of explosion to the offense/return game, but I kinda think they will go the mid round route in looking for a RS/slot guy and let him compete with Kyle Williams.

if they can trade up for Vaccaro, and then spend a couple early picks on NT who can clog up the middle, I feel like that will complete the D for this year. They should still have mid rounders after that to spend on a TE, WR/RS, DE, and an even an OLB who can maybe get himself into the rotation (smith and Brooks are logging too many snaps IMO, they need to get them some rest, the best pass-rushes use rotations of players)

To me, 49ers have by far the most stacked roster in the league, and all the people hopping on the Seahawks bandwagon need to cool out. If we sat down and compared the rosters right now, SF is better. And that doesnt even include the fact that SF has a glutton of picks, while SEA has given up their first rounder this year and doesnt have nearly as many picks as SF. And I love how everyone is just assuming Percy Harvin is gonna come back 100%. Adrian Peterson is a freak, he is not the norm.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:02 PM    (permalink
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Old 04-06-2013, 05:47 PM    (permalink
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I'll bet you $100 that you're wrong.
Didn't see a response to this. I'd really like to get this deal done so please reply.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:05 PM    (permalink
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I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.
Didn't you have the Rams ahead of the 49ers in your power rankings for next season?
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I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:33 PM    (permalink
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Justin Smith missed not only 1 game, BUT 2! Severe Decline! They lost 2 good players, but they are still really talented as a group.

Smith played through significant injury last year when he probably should have shut it down if they werent in the playoffs.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:49 PM    (permalink
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How many bath salts did you go with before creating this thread....
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:51 PM    (permalink
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I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline.
This is my favorite.

Clearly you think J. Smith is a shart away from an old person's home, so i'll leave him out of this.

Simply quote this post, and bold the ones that are on the "severe" decline.

Aldon Smith
Patrick Willis
Navarro Bowman
Ahmad Brooks
Ray McDonald
Chris Culliver
Tarrell Brown
Donte Whitner
Carlos Rogers

I left off Glenn Dorsey, even though he'll likely be a starter.

Of that list, the only ones on the back end of their career would be Whitner and Rogers. And of the two, Rogers can still play at a high level in the slot with the young guys on the edge.

And please, while you're at it, I would love your definition of "severe decline".
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Old 04-03-2013, 02:43 PM    (permalink
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This is my favorite.

Clearly you think J. Smith is a shart away from an old person's home, so i'll leave him out of this.

Simply quote this post, and bold the ones that are on the "severe" decline.

Aldon Smith
Patrick Willis
Navarro Bowman
Ahmad Brooks
Ray McDonald
Chris Culliver
Tarrell Brown
Donte Whitner
Carlos Rogers
Not a single special talent among those except for Willis and Bowman and they play the least important position on defense.

Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB.

McDonald is a solid run stuffer; nothing more nothing less.

Culliver and Brown are mediocre DBs who look average if the DLine isn't dominating.

And Whitner and Rogers are cooked older guys who actually played on a below-average level last year and I will be *shocked* if they play on anything but a mediocre level going forward, or even stay on the roster for more than a year.
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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Not a single special talent among those except for Willis and Bowman and they play the least important position on defense.

Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB.

McDonald is a solid run stuffer; nothing more nothing less.

Culliver and Brown are mediocre DBs who look average if the DLine isn't dominating.

And Whitner and Rogers are cooked older guys who actually played on a below-average level last year and I will be *shocked* if they play on anything but a mediocre level going forward, or even stay on the roster for more than a year.
Use your crazy eyes and read. Bold the ones on the severe decline, as you put it.

And in the other thread I already covered how willis and bowman do things that other ilbs don't - so dismissing their impact is ignorant.
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Old 04-03-2013, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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Use your crazy eyes and read. Bold the ones on the severe decline, as you put it.

And in the other thread I already covered how willis and bowman do things that other ilbs don't - so dismissing their impact is ignorant.
Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers are the two key on-the-decline members.

Everyone else is either an average starter or a scrub, talent-wise.


And ILBs are basically a product of their DLine. Did you WATCH THE LAST FEW GAMES OF THE 2012 REGULAR SEASON AND THE PLAYOFFS?

Bowman and Willis were playing on a high level but it DIDN'T MATTER. The DLine was bad so the team gave up tons of yards and points regardless of Willis / Bowman.
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Old 04-03-2013, 05:11 PM    (permalink
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Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers are the two key on-the-decline members.

Everyone else is either an average starter or a scrub, talent-wise.
You're contradicting what you said in your original post. Which means you're not using logic. You're basing this off something else, probably some kind of negative emotion.
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Old 04-03-2013, 06:53 PM    (permalink
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I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline.
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Justin Smith, Carlos Rogers are the two key on-the-decline members.
You see where I find this enjoyable right?

11 guys on defense - more than half (majority) is 6

You listed....

Wait for it....

2.

Also, the point I made about Willis and Bowman, which I will make again, is what they do for the defense. You dismiss them because they play inside backer. They play every single down, BOTH of them, and they draw coverage responsibilities that other teams give to their secondary.

I believe it was Roddy White (?) that Atlanta was going to in the final moments of that NFCG and who was in coverage.... Navarro Bowman?

Speaking of the playoffs. I'm sorry the 49ers didn't shut out Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco. Certainly the Lions will be able to do that in 2-3 years - tell me if i'm doing the "projecting" thing right.
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:15 PM    (permalink
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Don't for get about Aso now who we just signed for under 2 mil for one year! Gonna be a good season 49er fans.
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.
Niner haters unite!!!! lol....so sad, so pathetic....
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:59 PM    (permalink
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AcheTen is the OP?

Now I REALLY hope the 49ers draft Ziggy Ansah.

;)
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Old 04-03-2013, 08:16 AM    (permalink
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I'm sick of people just assuming that the 49ers defense will be a top-10 unit forever and ever because they had two (really, one and three-quarters) good years.

I think that the majority of the key contributors (Justin Smith in particular) are on the severe decline. I also believe that after losing their best DB (Dashon Goldson) that secondary will look like even more of a sieve than it had in the last few games of the regular season last year and into the playoffs.

The San Francisco 49ers will *not* finish in the top-10 in points per game allowed and will *not* finish in the top-10 in defensive DVOA (per footballoutsiders.com). That's my big prediction for 2013.

Now, obviously, that' doesn't mean that the 49ers will miss the playoffs or suck as a team, but the days of dominant 49er defense are over, and this team, at its ceiling, will look more like the 2010 Saints or 2011 Packers, *at best*, assuming that the offense progresses even further from last year.
I know, it's a disaster. We've lost our starting FS and need a decent young player to groom behind J. Smith. If only we had a decent GM and a huge stock of draft picks to play with...
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Old 04-03-2013, 03:08 PM    (permalink
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Ahmad Brooks is an average 3-4 OLB. Goodnight ladies and gentlemen.
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