Last year I made a thread talking about one of the most overhyped MLBs in the upcoming draft, Rey Maulugua and stated that he played like a second round draft pick. Fairly early in the draft process the doubters started to pop up (I was not the first) one after another until Rey finally became a second round pick in April's draft where he probably ended up getting bashed a little too much. This year I'm getting an early start on one of the most overrated or overhyped players that could be entering next years draft.
Like all threads that bash players, I'm going to start off by stating all the good things that make Sam Bradford an intriguing QB prospect for either next years draft or the '11 draft.
- Extremely productive
- Great size
- Stands tall in the pocket
- Quick Release
Even though he throws 3/4 and more sidearm, which will probably be brought up late in the draft process, he does get rid of the ball quickly. His great size should off-set his sidearm delivery, so mechanics wise, he doesn't need much work, mostly with his feet and his hips. Lower half mechanics are neither a positive or a negative.
- Good Character and Intangibles
Okay, now that we got his positives out of the way. Let's get to the negatives.
- System QB / Mentally Underdeveloped
His biggest negative. A system that creates extremely easy throws and even easier reads. This system made Jason White a Heisman winner. Did White even get drafted? Well, that doesn't even matter. The fact that some people already forgot the guy even exists says more than anything about the kind of numbers the OU offense means for QBs. Throw Sam Bradford's numbers right out there door. They are meaningless. So that means that his best positive -- production -- is worthless. He's coming from a school that has produced some huge numbers at his position, but ZERO NFL talent. The pedigree is a major concern.
But what else about this system takes away from Sam Bradford? Well, the defenses he faces are extremely bland. They're so easy to read, the avearge Joe sitting at home can look at the OU formation, then look at the way the defense is playing, and know exactly where the ball is going to go.
So that means he's in a system that doesn't ask him to make tough throws (hardly ever) or make difficult reads since he sees very bland coverages. This is not good for the NFL. He might attempt five NFL type throws a game. Might. This is why Sam Bradford is so boring to watch. You can watch an entire game and not see him make a single throw that impresses you or a single throw that he's going to be asked to make at the next level. So, if you're impressed with watching some great execution of the bubble screen, or watching a QB hit a RB who's wide open in the flat or hitting the best TE in the country who's also wide open in the flat, then you're easily impressed.
I'm not done with this negative. Just to further prove how significant this negative is I'm not just going to leave it at "He makes easy reads and easy throws."
There is a video on Youtube, and I don not recommend Youtube for scouting purposes, but this video accomplishes what I'm talking about. As you watch this video, look at the throws he makes since it shows every pass attempt from the Texas Tech game. Look at the single coverage. Look at how far he has to throw the ball (a ton of short passes under 15 yards). Look at how much work he has to do. How many throws does his stick into tight coverage? How many throws does he anticipate? Does he throw the ball when the WR gets wide open? Or does he throw the ball to a certain area before the WR is open? Is he accurate on his tougher throws compared to his easy throws? How do these defenses look? Are they changing? Are they different? Is he seeing the same thing time and time again? Are they complex? Or is your basic Cover 2? What's he looking at? What's he doing with safeties? How many WRs does he look at before throwing the ball? Progressions? Does he read both sides of the field?
This is what 14/19 (73%), 304 yards and 4 TDs, 0 INTs and 1 SACKs looks like from Sam Bradford:
Are you impressed with Sam Bradford after watching that? A guy who stairs down his targets? A guy who makes easy throws? A guy who is asked to do as little as possible?
How is decision making? Is he even making tough decisions?
The questions with this guy are still unanswered, because we just don't know how he'll react to an NFL styled system on a level playing field.
- Level of Competition
What? Yes, he plays against **** defenses with a team that is 95% of the time vastly superior to defenses he faces. Having the greatest supporting cast and being apart of an offensive machine isn't helping his causes. Watching other players take all the pressure of him is not something that he's going to be apart of at the NFL level. Now, when you consider he's in a system that can easily exploit **** defenses, then you add the fact that he has more talent around him than any team in the country... it makes Bradford's accomplishments less and less impressive. He plays against a very good, fast defense, and he has the worst game of his career in the biggest game of his career and he's upstaged by Tim Tebow. Matt Stafford got bashed for not carrying teams on his back or playing big in big games. Well, we wont have to worry about that with Sam Bradford until he gets to the NFL because right now he doesn't have to carry on any one his back and he wont be in (m)any big games.
He is used to having a dominate running game and clean pocket that hardly ever sees a blitz and/or pressure. Having all day to go through his progressions is not going to prepare him for the NFL. Another check under the underdeveloped department.
- Arm Strength
He doesn't have the NFL arm to make the longer or deeper throws. He struggles throwing the ball from the hash to the sideline and really loses his accuracy deep down the field, especially with a receiver that is mildly covered. His accuracy deep could change since he's only started for two years, but his arm strength is pretty much as good as it's going to get. He doesn't throw the ball with his lower half and generates little torque with his hips. Matthew Stafford had incredible torque in his hips. Think Matt Leinart when it comes to arm strength. He has a quicker release than Leinart, so getting rid of the ball on intermediate throws is probably a greater strength for Bradford. Is his arm going to hinder him? Yes, and that's why I have it as a negative. Can he still make it with this arm? Yes. You don't need a cannon to be a great QB, but you do need to be able to make the difficult throws and be able to stretch the field vertically.
Most people who don't know what they're talking about will say that Sam Bradford is an accurate passer. Those people are ignorant and haven't watched him play. Remember what I said earlier? Throw his stats out the door. Ring a bell? The most important stat you can throw out the door is his completion percentage. This stat is probably among his most impressive, but it's also his most misleading.
You can even look back to that video I showed earlier. Look at the difficult passes he attempts and look at how his accuracy changes. The majority of those go for incompletions either due to inaccuracy or arm strength. When he tries to look defenders off and come to a secondary target, he's inaccurate. When he has to make an NFL throw his accuracy is significantly less impressive and his ball placement is not anywhere near the 68% career completion rate he has. When he has those 14/19 games I showed you with the Texas Tech example, you see 5 of those incomplete passes and they are the most difficult throws he makes all game long and the majority of them are incomplete.
His stats are going to make people who don't watch him extremely close look better than he really is. People are going to say he's got pin point accuracy and then point to his near 70% completion percentage as some kind of proof. But the fact is that he's not nearly as accurate as Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez. Not even Josh Freeman. This guy doesn't attempt difficult throws, which is the only reason why he complete as many passes as he does. He's got a full season to improve his accuracy on passes over 20 yards, so I wont even count that against him at this time.
Basically, most of these negative come back to his system. Arm Strength is the only thing where system doesn't matter.
If there's anything else that I'm leaving out like Leadership, I probably didn't consider it a positive or a negative. When I saw OU play Florida the look in his eyes and his demeanor was not something that impressed me as he looked like he was in over his head and a look in his eyes that I would sum up as bewildered. I need to see more to call him a poor or good leader.
As he stands right now, I would take Sam Bradford in round 4.
Originally Posted by Scott Wright
I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.
Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage
I would like it if there were more successful black Quarterbacks in the NFL...
Originally Posted by bearsfan_51
iamcandian lives in a cabin in the Yukon Territory and writes letters to railroad barons about the price of hard tack.
Originally Posted by GatorsBullsFan
I could possibly see Matthew Stafford Dropping out of the 1st round
Originally Posted by GoRavens
Tahj Boyd has the best fundamentals of any QB in this class, I think his game translates great to the NFL.
Last edited by BigBanger : 05-25-2009 at 05:53 AM.