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Old 05-25-2009, 04:05 AM    (permalink
BigBanger
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Default Why Sam Bradford Sucks

Last year I made a thread talking about one of the most overhyped MLBs in the upcoming draft, Rey Maulugua and stated that he played like a second round draft pick. Fairly early in the draft process the doubters started to pop up (I was not the first) one after another until Rey finally became a second round pick in April's draft where he probably ended up getting bashed a little too much. This year I'm getting an early start on one of the most overrated or overhyped players that could be entering next years draft.

Like all threads that bash players, I'm going to start off by stating all the good things that make Sam Bradford an intriguing QB prospect for either next years draft or the '11 draft.

POSITIVES

- Extremely productive

- Great size

- Stands tall in the pocket

- Quick Release

Even though he throws 3/4 and more sidearm, which will probably be brought up late in the draft process, he does get rid of the ball quickly. His great size should off-set his sidearm delivery, so mechanics wise, he doesn't need much work, mostly with his feet and his hips. Lower half mechanics are neither a positive or a negative.

- Good Character and Intangibles

Okay, now that we got his positives out of the way. Let's get to the negatives.


NEGATIVES

- System QB / Mentally Underdeveloped

His biggest negative. A system that creates extremely easy throws and even easier reads. This system made Jason White a Heisman winner. Did White even get drafted? Well, that doesn't even matter. The fact that some people already forgot the guy even exists says more than anything about the kind of numbers the OU offense means for QBs. Throw Sam Bradford's numbers right out there door. They are meaningless. So that means that his best positive -- production -- is worthless. He's coming from a school that has produced some huge numbers at his position, but ZERO NFL talent. The pedigree is a major concern.

But what else about this system takes away from Sam Bradford? Well, the defenses he faces are extremely bland. They're so easy to read, the avearge Joe sitting at home can look at the OU formation, then look at the way the defense is playing, and know exactly where the ball is going to go.

So that means he's in a system that doesn't ask him to make tough throws (hardly ever) or make difficult reads since he sees very bland coverages. This is not good for the NFL. He might attempt five NFL type throws a game. Might. This is why Sam Bradford is so boring to watch. You can watch an entire game and not see him make a single throw that impresses you or a single throw that he's going to be asked to make at the next level. So, if you're impressed with watching some great execution of the bubble screen, or watching a QB hit a RB who's wide open in the flat or hitting the best TE in the country who's also wide open in the flat, then you're easily impressed.

I'm not done with this negative. Just to further prove how significant this negative is I'm not just going to leave it at "He makes easy reads and easy throws."

There is a video on Youtube, and I don not recommend Youtube for scouting purposes, but this video accomplishes what I'm talking about. As you watch this video, look at the throws he makes since it shows every pass attempt from the Texas Tech game. Look at the single coverage. Look at how far he has to throw the ball (a ton of short passes under 15 yards). Look at how much work he has to do. How many throws does his stick into tight coverage? How many throws does he anticipate? Does he throw the ball when the WR gets wide open? Or does he throw the ball to a certain area before the WR is open? Is he accurate on his tougher throws compared to his easy throws? How do these defenses look? Are they changing? Are they different? Is he seeing the same thing time and time again? Are they complex? Or is your basic Cover 2? What's he looking at? What's he doing with safeties? How many WRs does he look at before throwing the ball? Progressions? Does he read both sides of the field?


This is what 14/19 (73%), 304 yards and 4 TDs, 0 INTs and 1 SACKs looks like from Sam Bradford:



Are you impressed with Sam Bradford after watching that? A guy who stairs down his targets? A guy who makes easy throws? A guy who is asked to do as little as possible?

How is decision making? Is he even making tough decisions?


The questions with this guy are still unanswered, because we just don't know how he'll react to an NFL styled system on a level playing field.

- Level of Competition

What? Yes, he plays against **** defenses with a team that is 95% of the time vastly superior to defenses he faces. Having the greatest supporting cast and being apart of an offensive machine isn't helping his causes. Watching other players take all the pressure of him is not something that he's going to be apart of at the NFL level. Now, when you consider he's in a system that can easily exploit **** defenses, then you add the fact that he has more talent around him than any team in the country... it makes Bradford's accomplishments less and less impressive. He plays against a very good, fast defense, and he has the worst game of his career in the biggest game of his career and he's upstaged by Tim Tebow. Matt Stafford got bashed for not carrying teams on his back or playing big in big games. Well, we wont have to worry about that with Sam Bradford until he gets to the NFL because right now he doesn't have to carry on any one his back and he wont be in (m)any big games.

He is used to having a dominate running game and clean pocket that hardly ever sees a blitz and/or pressure. Having all day to go through his progressions is not going to prepare him for the NFL. Another check under the underdeveloped department.

- Arm Strength

He doesn't have the NFL arm to make the longer or deeper throws. He struggles throwing the ball from the hash to the sideline and really loses his accuracy deep down the field, especially with a receiver that is mildly covered. His accuracy deep could change since he's only started for two years, but his arm strength is pretty much as good as it's going to get. He doesn't throw the ball with his lower half and generates little torque with his hips. Matthew Stafford had incredible torque in his hips. Think Matt Leinart when it comes to arm strength. He has a quicker release than Leinart, so getting rid of the ball on intermediate throws is probably a greater strength for Bradford. Is his arm going to hinder him? Yes, and that's why I have it as a negative. Can he still make it with this arm? Yes. You don't need a cannon to be a great QB, but you do need to be able to make the difficult throws and be able to stretch the field vertically.

- Accuracy

Most people who don't know what they're talking about will say that Sam Bradford is an accurate passer. Those people are ignorant and haven't watched him play. Remember what I said earlier? Throw his stats out the door. Ring a bell? The most important stat you can throw out the door is his completion percentage. This stat is probably among his most impressive, but it's also his most misleading.

You can even look back to that video I showed earlier. Look at the difficult passes he attempts and look at how his accuracy changes. The majority of those go for incompletions either due to inaccuracy or arm strength. When he tries to look defenders off and come to a secondary target, he's inaccurate. When he has to make an NFL throw his accuracy is significantly less impressive and his ball placement is not anywhere near the 68% career completion rate he has. When he has those 14/19 games I showed you with the Texas Tech example, you see 5 of those incomplete passes and they are the most difficult throws he makes all game long and the majority of them are incomplete.

His stats are going to make people who don't watch him extremely close look better than he really is. People are going to say he's got pin point accuracy and then point to his near 70% completion percentage as some kind of proof. But the fact is that he's not nearly as accurate as Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez. Not even Josh Freeman. This guy doesn't attempt difficult throws, which is the only reason why he complete as many passes as he does. He's got a full season to improve his accuracy on passes over 20 yards, so I wont even count that against him at this time.

Basically, most of these negative come back to his system. Arm Strength is the only thing where system doesn't matter.


If there's anything else that I'm leaving out like Leadership, I probably didn't consider it a positive or a negative. When I saw OU play Florida the look in his eyes and his demeanor was not something that impressed me as he looked like he was in over his head and a look in his eyes that I would sum up as bewildered. I need to see more to call him a poor or good leader.


As he stands right now, I would take Sam Bradford in round 4.
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Old 05-25-2009, 05:16 AM    (permalink
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I liked that youtube clip because it showed that Bradford didn't exclusively play out of ther shotgun.

Based on how much time you devoted to Bradford's negatives, and your simple whitewashing of his strengths as a QB, to me it comes across that you have a pre-programmed bias against the kid.

What troubles me about college teams that incorporate elements of a spread scheme is, why haven't more of these guys broken out in the NFL as WCO QBs?

Whenever I see teams that substitute short passes for running the footall, I see West Coast. So far it hasn't happened, but I'm still waiting to see what Brennan, McCoy, and Bradford can do in the pros.

First off, college defenses in general won't show the sophistication in coverages that you see in the NFL. This would be the case if Bradford played in the SEC,( better athletes executing base schemes), ACC, Big East or Pac 10. So that's not a huge knock in my book against him.

I didn't see a lot of screen passes in that clip, or from OU in general. Stoopes has Bradford throwing to the TE and RBs coming out of the backfield because those are the top playmakers on the team, although Bradford is still someone who will get the ball downfield to his receivers.

Bradford is a QB who processes info on the field quickly and gets rid of the ball, he's not playing in one or two read system. I've always liked how he spreads the ball to all his receivers, which tells me he has great vision for the entire field.

I'm not gonna refute each point you made, BigBanger, not enough time, but I will say that Bradford is the best QB to ever play under Stoopes. Every year I'd say the talent level is consistently high across the roster, the difference comes at the QB position.

Except for White, Josh Heupel, and Bradford, Oklahoma's offense has struggled to find any rhythm, consistently move the football, or put up big points without solid QB play.

The difference between the three QBs IMO is that Bradford has better tools; size and arm strength and slightly better decision making.

WHenever I try to evaluate how good Sam Bradford is, I think back to the season he had his RS frosh year. That wasn't the performance of a system QB, but of someone who has unique skills for the position.

SO based on worth/talent, what round do you think Bradford should go, BigBanger??

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Old 05-25-2009, 05:27 AM    (permalink
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You make some valid points but overall the positives far outweigh the negatives. It's just the norm now that the top QB prospect will be the subject of excessive analysis and a lot of that tends to be negative.
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Old 05-25-2009, 05:39 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by parrish_lemar24DBSkins View Post
Based on how much time you devoted to Bradford's negatives, and your simple whitewashing of his strengths as a QB, to me it comes across that you have a pre-programmed bias against the kid.

SO based on worth/talent, what round do you think Bradford should go, BigBanger??
Well, I devoted the time on the negative side to show why I think he sucks. There's also not much else to say about production. I mean, what else can I say other than, "He was extremely productive?" I could probably add his stats, but there's Google for stuff like that.

He's a high character guy. What else do I say? Most of his positives have little to do with his tools. He's tall. What else do I say?

This should be an indicator that I don't think he has great tools or physical ability.


I guess you didn't read the last line of the of thread. I'll quote it for you.

Quote:
As he stands right now, I would take Sam Bradford in round 4.
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Old 05-25-2009, 06:24 AM    (permalink
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I find it hard to take someone too seriously when they throw the level of competition argument out there. There are starting QB's from all levels of competition in the NFL. The most recent Super Bowl winning QB played in the MAC. The Super Bowl losing QB didn't even play Div 1 football. Trying to make the Big 12 out as weak competition is a joke.

Also, Having a good supporting cast tends to happen at big time programs. If having good players around a QB in college prevented them from being good pros then Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer wouldn't be where they are. If you buy the supprting cast argument then you'd never want a QB from a big time program...

The highly overused level of competition and supporting cast arguments are garbage
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Old 05-25-2009, 06:25 AM    (permalink
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Well done, totally agree me with you here! Sam Bradford is just not as great as everyone says he is, simple as that. Good, not great.
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Old 05-25-2009, 06:26 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
I find it hard to take someone too seriously when they throw the level of competition argument out there. There are starting QB's from all levels of competition in the NFL. The most recent Super Bowl winning QB played in the MAC. The Super Bowl losing QB didn't even play Div 1 football. Trying to make the Big 12 out as weak competition is a joke.

Also, Having a good supporting cast tends to happen at big time programs. If having good players around a QB in college prevented them from being good pros then Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Carson Palmer wouldn't be where they are. If you buy the supprting cast argument then you'd never want a QB from a big time program...

The highly overused level of competition and supporting cast arguments are garbage
Brady probably isn't the best example there. Brady's college career wasn't exactly awe-inspiring.
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Old 05-25-2009, 06:31 AM    (permalink
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Brady probably isn't the best example there. Brady's college career wasn't exactly awe-inspiring.
It was in his final bowl game against Alabama.;)
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Old 05-25-2009, 06:42 AM    (permalink
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Brady probably isn't the best example there. Brady's college career wasn't exactly awe-inspiring.
I never said his college career was "awe inspiring". I said having good players around a QB doesn't stop them from succeeding in the NFL. Brady was, however, good enough to start his final 2 years at Michigan, get named to the All Big 10 honorable mention team and lead Michigan to a Orange Bowl win.
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Old 05-25-2009, 07:16 AM    (permalink
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I tend to agree with this rant...Bradford's production and prototype size overshadow his amount of rawness and inexperience of making calls or even reading defenses at the LOS.
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Old 05-25-2009, 07:37 AM    (permalink
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If you really think that Bradford isn't accurate then there is really no use in arguing with you. The only knocks on Bradford, in my opinion, are that he is a system quarterback, which isn't that bad because OU's offense is very similar to the Patriots or Colts, and maybe level of competition.
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Old 05-25-2009, 09:21 AM    (permalink
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Before I dive into your points, this where you stand as a poster; you are coming off as full of yourself for "calling" the Maualuga fall. Also, your stance on Bradford is negative regardless of what anyone has to say so anything Bradford may do or has done will, in some way, be downplayed or degraded.

Let me go through the negatives you point out....

System QB

If you're going to bring up this aspect, you need to ignore the past of players like Jason White. You need to look at each individual player as that, an individual. Jason White battled injuries throughout his career and didn't have the physical tools to overcome the big question marks. Sam Bradford is Sam Bradford, not Jason White, so stop with the comparison.

I compare this situation similar to Texas Tech and their wideouts. Generally, Red Raider wideouts put up huge numbers, so they're part of the system, but occasionally you have one player that transcends the trend. That player this past year was Michael Crabtree and his abilities were greater than the system, which has produced wideouts with great numbers in the past. Oklahoma has had QBs with big numbers, but this time its different with Sam Bradford because he isn't just another QB, he's special.

Level of competition

This was probably the most laughable of them all. Courtesy of Dan Hawkins, this is Division I football, this is the Big XII, not intramurals. Outside of the SEC, the athletes and players in the Big XII are the best in the nation, and they need to be recognized as such. Look at a defense like Missouri for example. Missouri has quite a bit of NFL talent on it, and Oklahoma and Sam Bradford were able to light them up for 62 points (34/49, 384 yards, 2 TDs). Even in the National Championship he didn't have the sexiest statistical game, but he proved more positives than he did negatives. He made alot of NFL throws, showed mobility and showed that he could handle a faster defense. Please don't bring up the level of competition because right behind the SEC, the Big XII has the best players and defenses to offer.

Arm strength

Bradford's arm strength isn't special like Matthew Stafford, but I would say it's very comparable to Mark Sanchez. The arm strength would be a greater issue if Bradford wasn't so accurate, but his accuracy helps make up for any disadvantage that his arm strength may bring. I will be discussing the accuracy issue more below.

Accuracy

I lied, the level of competition is the most laughable, this is. He is a pinpoint passer and is sick accuracy-wise compared to this year's #1 pick Matthew Stafford. You bring up struggling on accuracy on deeper throws but if you get a breakdown of a QBs accuracy on three levels (short, intermeditae, deep) the deep level will ALWAYS have the lowest accuracy. I'm not gonna say that he doesn't have area to improve here because he does, but on his deep throws he places the ball in a spot where only his receiver can make a play. He isn't missing those deep passes short and inside; if he was, then that would create greater concerns. He fits perfectly as West Coast QB and he reminds alot of Aaron Rodgers because of his ability to put the ball on the spot in the short and intermediate range, but still has some work to do on the deep ball.

Leadership

I'm not going to dive deep into this topic, but Bradford is a player, a quarterback, who leads by example and not by a rah-rah attitude. As a sophomore there are very few players who are looked at to be the leader of the team at an emotional level, and it can't come as a surprise that Bradford didn't fill that role for Oklahoma this past season. The leadership thing has alot to do with a person's personality and Bradford is more a calm and collected individual rather than an attention grabber like Mark Sanchez.

I'm anxious to hear which QBs you believe are better served to be NFL caliber and what makes them greater than Bradford's 4th round value.
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Old 05-25-2009, 09:29 AM    (permalink
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I always laugh when people say a player will fail because his college hasn't produced pros at that position. I must have missed the rich QB tradition at schools like Miami-Ohio, Kansas St, and Delaware.
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Old 05-25-2009, 09:34 AM    (permalink
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the title of your thread doesnt help your cause here, youve instantly made the thread sound like a childish bash on him. in future put something like Prospect Analysis: QB Sam Bradford.
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Old 05-25-2009, 10:02 AM    (permalink
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WOAH...OU hasn't produced any pro QBs? Everyone should just blindly draft UCLA and Stanford QBs because they produced great QBs once.

White didn't get drafted because he was always injured, and I wouldn't dare to compare the "huge stats". White may have one a Heisman, but Bradford had like 1500 more yards and 18 more TDs.


"Most people who don't know what they're talking about will say that Sam Bradford is an accurate passer. Those people are ignorant and haven't watched him play"

I've watched almost every OU game for the last two years...I would say that Bradford is an accurate passer. Ignorant?

Also, make a thread to complain about him AFTER the season. His Oline is going to be inexpierenced, his starting receivers left, and he has an entire year to develop before the draft.
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Old 05-25-2009, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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I always laugh when people say a player will fail because his college hasn't produced pros at that position. I must have missed the rich QB tradition at schools like Miami-Ohio, Kansas St, and Delaware.
That doesn't really count.
He said his main weakness is arm strength, and Roethlisberger, Freeman, and Flacco had it for days.
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Old 05-25-2009, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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The one thing that really worries me about Bradford is the weird sidearm delivery. That stuff doesn't fly in the NFL. Name me the last QB with a delivery like that to be any good.

Watching Bradford on video, his sidearm delivery results in a lot of passes that are looped in there or thrown with lots of air under them. In the OU system, as was pointed out here, he had lots and lots of plays where he could throw passes like that to open areas and have wide open receivers running under them. In the NFL he will almost never have that.

I know he's also capable of throwing balls with some zip on them too, but again Banger is right in saying that those are generally in short to medium zones only.

I'm not going so far as to call Bradford a fourth-round pick, but it blew my mind in this recent draft to hear certain Lions fans say that Bradford would have been picked ahead of Stafford if he'd come out this year. That's ridiculous.
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Old 05-25-2009, 10:12 AM    (permalink
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The one thing that really worries me about Bradford is the weird sidearm delivery. That stuff doesn't fly in the NFL. Name me the last QB with a delivery like that to be any good.
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Old 05-25-2009, 10:35 AM    (permalink
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I'll agree that he's overrated as a pro prospect, that system blows up his stats and his arm strength isn't great. But I do think your underrating his accuracy, he makes alot of throws that couldn't be made if he didn't put it on the exact right shoulder. This whole QB class is overrated imo, none of these guys are legit 1st rounders to me.
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Old 05-25-2009, 11:25 AM    (permalink
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Na, Rivers has like a three-quarter delivery. He doesn't have that weird pushing-the-ball thing that Bradford does.

The nearest thing I can think of in recent years is Vince Young, people said that would be no big deal too. Although Young has other issues, and if he was a better QB between the ears maybe his throw wouldn't matter much, I dunno.
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Old 05-25-2009, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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i would take him in the 2nd round for a lot of the reasons listed above, plus i don't see anything elite that i couldn't get out of a lot of the backup NFL vets out there right now. i can get a sage rosenfels type for $50 million cheaper.
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Old 05-25-2009, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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Provided he doesn't get injured this season and miss time, he'll be a 3 year starter with 40-42 career starts and an accuracy rate near 70%. That video showed him making several NFL caliber throws as well, threading double coverage, and placing balls in spots where only his man could get them, most of the time hitting them in stride. Given the experience and accuracy he'll have coming into the NFL, he's far less likely to fail than your average Top 5 QB prospect, and if my team is investing that kind of money into a player, it'd be nice to get a guy who has the odds on their side.
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Old 05-25-2009, 12:14 PM    (permalink
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I hear he stole Tebow's girlfriend online.

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Old 05-25-2009, 12:34 PM    (permalink
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Na, Rivers has like a three-quarter delivery. He doesn't have that weird pushing-the-ball thing that Bradford does.
Then you have forgotten the time prior to the 2004 draft, since his side arm delivery was Phillip Rivers' main weakness as a draft prospect.
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Old 05-25-2009, 12:39 PM    (permalink
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I hear he stole Tebow's girlfriend online.

hahahahahaha, wtf.
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