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Old 01-04-2010, 09:41 AM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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So who got the breaks and who didn't for injuries and home/away.

Ranked all opponents based on injuries and home/away

Toughest compared to other North teams
Lions at Seattle,at San Fran,at South(Saints),at Baltimore
Packers Home East(Dallas),Cincy(tie,home,Odom),at St Louis(tie)
Vikings at Zona,at Pittsburgh,at Cleveland,at St Louis(tie)
Bears at Baltimore,at Cincy(tie)

Easiest compared to other North teams
Detroit Cleveland(tie),Pittsburgh(tie)
Packers Seattle(tie),at Arizona(no Warner/meaningless),Baltimore(many injuries)
Vikings Seattle(tie),San Fran(Gore hurt,no Crabtree),Cincy
Bears at Seattle(tie,no Hasselbeck),St Louis,Cleveland(tie),Pittsburgh(tie)

Rest were in the middle

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Old 01-04-2010, 09:46 AM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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Division games who had the advantage based on home/away and injuries

Chicago at GB Adv GB Who won GB
GB at Chicago Adv Chi Who Won GB
GB at Min Adv Min Who Won Min
Min at GB Adv GB Who Won Min
Chi at Min Adv Vikings, Vikings won
Min at Chi Even, Bears won
Lions at GB Adv GB, GB won
GB at Lions Even, GB won
Lions at Bears Even no Urlacher, Chi won
Bears at Lions Adv Bears, Chi won
Vikings at Lions Adv Lions, Min won
Lions at Vikings Adv Vikings, Vikings won

Vikings and Green Bay obviously earned things especially in division but its interesting to see who got the breaks against which opponents.

The End

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Old 01-04-2010, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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No offense but there is no such things as "breaks" in the NFL. Injuries aren't "breaks" and neither is playing at home or away. You go into every season expecting to lose someone and you play 8 games at home and 8 games away.
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Old 01-04-2010, 12:55 PM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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No offense but there is no such things as "breaks" in the NFL. Injuries aren't "breaks" and neither is playing at home or away. You go into every season expecting to lose someone and you play 8 games at home and 8 games away.
True but the timing of injuries is always different. For instance some teams had to play Cincy with Odom/Peko(GB) and some teams didn't(Det,Chi,(payed Peko),Min). Some teams got to play San Fran without Gore/Crabtree(Minnesota as Gore was hurt early), some teams didn't get that luxury(GB,Chi,Det). Overall it seems to even out which is why I kept track and every North team lost 2 main guys(Detroit 3 but later in the season) for a while and had others dinged up some Hester/Pace/Harris,Detroit D players,Pickett/Finley/Kuhn,Herrera/Johnson. Also when Tommie Harris was out against Cincy/Zona, Bears got thoroughly abused.

And home/away makes a difference sometimes depending on the opponents. Obviously its the same number of games home/away but its different schedule for Bears/Lions versus Packers/Vikings. For instance, playing at St Louis and at Cleveland for Minnesota and Green Bay is a break because those teams are devoid of talent essentially a free win ON THE ROAD, which is huge in the NFL. If they had to go to Seattle and San Fran who knows with the road woes GB and Vikings had although Seattle wasn't very good this year and then they would get Arizona at home which was a road loss for the Vikings. Pittsburgh at home was a win for Chicago but road losses for Minnesota/GB. Just like Baltimore at home was a win for Vikings and Pack but loss on road for Chicago. However, going to Cincy/Baltimore was tougher for Chicago IMO then going to Pit/Cle from the "free" road win that Cleveland provided.

Bye weeks can make a difference, see Tampas win over Green Bay.

In the end, the teams who are in the playoffs earned it though and the Vikings earned the North with the win at Lambeau.
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Old 01-04-2010, 01:11 PM    (permalink
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True but the timing of injuries is always different. For instance some teams had to play Cincy with Odom/Peko(GB) and some teams didn't(Det,Chi,(payed Peko),Min). Some teams got to play San Fran without Gore/Crabtree(Minnesota as Gore was hurt early), some teams didn't get that luxury(GB,Chi,Det). Overall it seems to even out which is why I kept track and every North team lost 2 main guys(Detroit 3 but later in the season) for a while and had others dinged up some Hester/Pace/Harris,Detroit D players,Pickett/Finley/Kuhn,Herrera/Johnson. Also when Tommie Harris was out against Cincy/Zona, Bears got thoroughly abused.

And home/away makes a difference sometimes depending on the opponents. Obviously its the same number of games home/away but its different schedule for Bears/Lions versus Packers/Vikings. For instance, playing at St Louis and at Cleveland for Minnesota and Green Bay is a break because those teams are devoid of talent essentially a free win ON THE ROAD, which is huge in the NFL. If they had to go to Seattle and San Fran who knows with the road woes GB and Vikings had although Seattle wasn't very good this year and then they would get Arizona at home which was a road loss for the Vikings. Pittsburgh at home was a win for Chicago but road losses for Minnesota/GB. Just like Baltimore at home was a win for Vikings and Pack but loss on road for Chicago. However, going to Cincy/Baltimore was tougher for Chicago IMO then going to Pit/Cle from the "free" road win that Cleveland provided.

Bye weeks can make a difference, see Tampas win over Green Bay.

In the end, the teams who are in the playoffs earned it though and the Vikings earned the North with the win at Lambeau.
You're making game by game assessments when in reality it should be position verse position. Consider that if Antwan Odom didn't dominate against a backup player would not facing him really be a break to anyone else that plays the Bengals? Thats like saying that Brian Orapko is a beast because he posted 11 sacks as a rookie. But you look at how those sacks were spread out you'd see he dominated 1 player in posting those statistics.

Winning games on the road against bad teams are hardly "free" games either. Any team is capable of winning and teams lay an egg every season. So with the Lions coming off a by week and losing to the Rams how would you categorize that?

Its a nice write-up that you do but there is no way to validate any of your "theory" because in fact its just your opinion. One player rarely changes the game and having not faced a particular doesn't neccessarly constitute a "break" for a particular team.
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Old 01-04-2010, 02:53 PM    (permalink
Maybe Next Year Millen2
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You're making game by game assessments when in reality it should be position verse position. Consider that if Antwan Odom didn't dominate against a backup player would not facing him really be a break to anyone else that plays the Bengals? Thats like saying that Brian Orapko is a beast because he posted 11 sacks as a rookie. But you look at how those sacks were spread out you'd see he dominated 1 player in posting those statistics.

Winning games on the road against bad teams are hardly "free" games either. Any team is capable of winning and teams lay an egg every season. So with the Lions coming off a by week and losing to the Rams how would you categorize that?

Its a nice write-up that you do but there is no way to validate any of your "theory" because in fact its just your opinion. One player rarely changes the game and having not faced a particular doesn't neccessarly constitute a "break" for a particular team.
Its position by position too along with game by game. Not really trying to validate anything. Me noting a player was out, you know that team is weakened some especially if the other starter at the opposite position is still in there. But its only a factor not a main reason for wins and losses. Everyone has to pick up their game and backups are paid too for a reason so they must fill in. For instance rookie Michael Johnson for Cincy in place of Odom.

Thats a worse "break" for the Packers losing Clifton in that game. Not only did they have to face Odom(who was the legit best DE they had and is a good player) but also had to face Odom without Clifton in the second half allowing him to take over the game. Double trouble for the Packers. If thats not a case of an injury break against the Packers I don't know what is. Its not the only reason the Packers lost but it was a factor for sure. Sometimes depth and backups have to overcome or the other starters must pick up their game(for instance Carolina missing a slew of people clown stomping the Vikes). If the Vikings,Bears,Lions had to face Odom with their backup LTs, the Bengals would have been a tougher opponent. Bears/Lions didn't take advantage of it losing on the road especially Bears who had their own issues that day big time, but the Vikings were able to dominate even more at home. Probably still would have dominated with Odom in there, but the Bengals were weakened with no Odom or Peko making it easier for McKinnie/Oline. Its not a definite they won because this guy was out or whatever, but the team was weaker on that day.

Road wins againt the Browns and Rams are a free win if you have way more talent like the Pack,Bears and Vikings do. Lions are equal talent wise to the Rams and the Lions can be considered a free road win for teams too. Plus we were missing Calvin so I'm sure that played a huge factor in only scoring 10 points when Calvin is your only threat. Lions didn't take advantage of bye and Calvin wasn't healthy,Bucs did take advantage of the bye. It definitely helped them, wasn' the sole reason obviously but it helped them and was a disadvantage for the Pack whereas the Bears/Vikings did not have to face any opponents off of a bye, Lions had to face both Pack/Vikings off a bye which stunk but we still would have lost those road games anyways. Still a bad "break" for the Lions.

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Old 07-16-2010, 03:37 PM    (permalink
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Wrapping up a slow work end work day we'll start this up again 2010 style

Bye Weeks Min(4),Det(7),Chi (8),GB(10)

Play following own bye
Detroit plays Washington home (good winnable game)
Chicago plays at Buffalo (good winnable road game)
Green Bay plays at Minnesota(huge help for GB,especially for health)
Minnesota plays at NYJ(huge extra for Minny but bye week is very early)

Play teams that had bye
Detroit None
Chicago None
Minnesota (home vs GB) bad break giving Packers extra time
Green Bay (at NYJ) bad break Jets get extra time to prepare and Miami

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