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Old 05-28-2010, 08:58 PM    (permalink
bearsfan_51
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Default Top 10 teams to make the jump to a BCS conference.

First of all, I recognize that technically non- automatic qualifying schools are also in BCS conferences, but you know what I mean.

This is not just based on my own feelings, but rather a quantitative analysis involving four separate factors.

1) Athletic performance This is NOT just for football
2) Academic/Research reputation
3) Athletic department budget/revenue (not always available for private schools, but there are educated guesses)
4) Room for growth/size of market

With that being said, here's what I came up with. I was surprised at some of the stuff I came up with, particularly in terms of the large debt that some teams have.

1) Texas Christian University


2) University of Utah


3) University of New Mexico


4) Brigham Young University


5) University of Hawaii


6) University of Central Florida


7) University of Houston


8) San Diego State University


9) Boise State University


10) Villanova University
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:23 PM    (permalink
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The population of Idaho is 1.5 million people... as good as their program might be, that's a huge problem. Hawaii is not even as big as Idaho and the time zone doesn't help their cause either. To compare, San Diego has about 3 million and Houston has 2.2

And has there been any inclination that Villanova would even want to be in the FBS? They are a championship program in FCS and probably nothing more than mediocre in the FBS.

I'd also have BYU and Utah ahead of New Mexico
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:27 PM    (permalink
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Boise State NEEDS to be in a BCS conference, stat
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:27 PM    (permalink
bearsfan_51
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The population of Idaho is 1.5 million people... as good as their program might be, that's a huge problem. Hawaii is not even as big as Idaho and the time zone doesn't help their cause either. To compare, San Diego has about 3 million and Houston has 2.2
True, and population figures help San Diego and Houston. But those are pro-cities, and most people that live in those respective cities could care less about both programs. It's hard to say if that would change.

Quote:
And has there been any inclination that Villanova would even want to be in the FBS? They are a championship program in FCS and probably nothing more than mediocre in the FBS.
None that I'm aware. They would need to build a new stadium if they were to do so. This isn't who I think will get picked, however, but the best options currently. Villanova is already in the Big East in everything else, just the football program would need work.

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I'd also have BYU and Utah ahead of New Mexico
I do have Utah ahead of New Mexico. BYU is hurt by the religion issue, fair or not.
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:30 PM    (permalink
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eh... personally, I think the Mormon thing helps BYU's case, because it's a fan base that stretches to various parts of the country, so from the perspective of a Big Ten type network, those are potential customers, which would be good for the PAC-10 for example.
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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eh... personally, I think the Mormon thing helps BYU's case, because it's a fan base that stretches to various parts of the country, so from the perspective of a Big Ten type network, those are potential customers, which would be good for the PAC-10 for example.
They don't play games on Sundays, which is killer for basketball in a major conference.
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:40 PM    (permalink
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They don't play games on Sundays, which is killer for basketball in a major conference.
If I'm not mistaken, isn't Utah in the same boat?
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:46 PM    (permalink
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Utah is a public university.
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Old 05-28-2010, 09:49 PM    (permalink
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Utah is a public university.
I thought it was Utah that forfeited a championship that was gonna be played on a Sunday this past year; a decision made by the student athletes on the team
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Old 05-28-2010, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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What are the rules of mid major conferences becoming BCS?

I wish Boise was in the Mountain West.
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Old 05-30-2010, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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Boise State has to be on the top of the list.
They do have a serious shot at the NC this year, and if they actually win it, the NCAA will be rushing their asses to make them jump to the Big Ten or other BCS conference.

Better, make the WAC a BCS conference already.

Much better, make the WAC and the MWC a single conference.

Way better, end this stupid BCS system.
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Old 05-30-2010, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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Boise State has to be on the top of the list.
They do have a serious shot at the NC this year, and if they actually win it, the NCAA will be rushing their asses to make them jump to the Big Ten or other BCS conference.

Better, make the WAC a BCS conference already.

Much better, make the WAC and the MWC a single conference.

Way better, end this stupid BCS system.
BF51 said he was taking all sports into consideration, and Boise State is terrible at everything besides football.
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Old 05-30-2010, 12:08 PM    (permalink
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Boise State has to be on the top of the list.
They do have a serious shot at the NC this year, and if they actually win it, the NCAA will be rushing their asses to make them jump to the Big Ten or other BCS conference.

Better, make the WAC a BCS conference already.

Much better, make the WAC and the MWC a single conference.

Way better, end this stupid BCS system.
You obviously have no idea how college athletics works.
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Old 05-30-2010, 01:37 PM    (permalink
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Hey BF51, what are the prospects of James Madison making the jump? I remember there were some small rumors going around my area when the new stadium was being built. JMU appears to only be good in football and for the most part its a party school so academic reputation isnt too high, but there are only two teams in VA that are FBS and ODU just joined FCS. I was just curious if you had any thoughts on the subject.
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Old 05-30-2010, 02:21 PM    (permalink
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Making the jump to FBS or to a BCS conference? There are a few schools in the CAA that I could see making the jump, but I doubt as high as to the Big East or the ACC.
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Old 05-30-2010, 02:54 PM    (permalink
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Yeah Boise State doesn't even have a baseball team. That really hurts their move to the MWC.
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Old 05-30-2010, 03:08 PM    (permalink
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Yeah Boise State doesn't even have a baseball team. That really hurts their move to the MWC.
True, true, true.

But seeing the best team in the country being unable to be in the national title game hurts.
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Old 05-30-2010, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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I have to say this is a pretty fantastic list. FIU isnt a bad school but they're not up to par with some of those listed.

Isn't UMass supposed to be a pretty good research institute?
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Old 05-30-2010, 08:51 PM    (permalink
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Making the jump to FBS or to a BCS conference? There are a few schools in the CAA that I could see making the jump, but I doubt as high as to the Big East or the ACC.
I suppose FBS in general, though that is kinda off-topic.
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Old 05-31-2010, 03:09 AM    (permalink
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I've always been surprised TCU isn't in the Big 12. By their reputation, history (yes, they actually have a history beyond the 1990's) and academics, they would fit the bill as a mid-tier Big 12 school at the very least. They would certainly be better than Baylor.
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Old 05-31-2010, 02:35 PM    (permalink
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I've always been surprised TCU isn't in the Big 12. By their reputation, history (yes, they actually have a history beyond the 1990's) and academics, they would fit the bill as a mid-tier Big 12 school at the very least. They would certainly be better than Baylor.
I don't think the rest of their sports would match up with the Big 12 tho. Baylor is always good at basketball.
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Old 05-31-2010, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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I don't think the rest of their sports would match up with the Big 12 tho. Baylor is always good at basketball.
I'm always of the opinion that football rules the world, especially when it comes to college athletics and money. I think the thing that hurts TCU the most is it's another Texas school. If it was in ANY other state, it would be a slam dunk. I still think it's destined for the Big XII, but they'd like to expand their reach a little farther than Fort Worth
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Old 05-31-2010, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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I dunno. I think Texas teams playing Texas teams in conference would maximize ticket sales.
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Old 05-31-2010, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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TCU is hurt by the fact that it's a private, Christian, school (ditto Baylor).Texas is certainly large enough (and growing) to support 5 BCS schools.

Let's stretch that argument out a bit more. Add up the populations of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Kentucky. That's still less than the amount of people who live in Texas. So we're looking at 10 BCS schools in those 6 states, versus 4 in Texas. Still think they can't add one or two more?

Generally, if a conference is going to want a smaller private school, it's going to be because it excels at academics (Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Stanford) because the alumni presence is never going to be there to sell tickets.
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Old 05-31-2010, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YAYareaRB View Post
I dunno. I think Texas teams playing Texas teams in conference would maximize ticket sales.
Consider the reach of any other BCS Conference. The PAC 10 has the entire Pacific Coast line and is looking to move east. The Big Ten currently stretches from Iowa to Pennsylvania and will be likely be moving west into Nebraska and east into New Jersey. The ACC stretches from Massachussetts to Florida. The Big East has Ohio, Florida, and at least for the moment, New Jersey. The SEC goes from Kentucky to Arkansas to Florida.

The Big XII has Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Iowa... other than the fact that Texas is an enormous state, the Big XII's reach is relatively small and while adding another power within Texas wouldn't be a bad thing, they'd certainly like to stretch their aura of influence, which is why Arkansas has come up in conversations. I don't disagree at all that the Big XII can support another BCS school within the state, but how much does it do for TV audiences, recruiting, or recognition? Not much. And generally, Texas can support 2 good football programs at a time. Right now, it's Texas and TCU.
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