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Old 03-23-2007, 09:38 PM    (permalink
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What do u mean by Green Bay being a boring team? What exactly makes an NFL team boring? Just Curious.
I don't think the Packers are very boring either. Favre still plays with a fire, and we are a very young and improving team.
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Old 03-23-2007, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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Old 03-23-2007, 10:51 PM    (permalink
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He has one more year on the team. You're asking for the value of a 1st round pick for a backup runningback that you're going to have for one more year.

Granted the Falcons fleeced the Texans but there are a few differences.

1)The Packers (unfortunately) aren't that stupid.
2)Teams take chances on QB's all the time. Runningbacks aren't worth nearly as much.
3)While Turner is a hot name, I would argue that the buzz around Schaub was even higher (albeit unjustifiably)
From your keyboard to God's monitor. I am OK with switching first and thirds as you are drafting the same number of players and picking up a good prospect at RB. Also, Packers could get a TE at the bottom of the first, or perhaps Leonard, whereas this year's TEs have dubious value in the first. TT also does not have the same value board as other teams and so he takes small-college players and unknowns higher than other teams because he believes his scouts and not combine numbers. Tony Moll went in the 5th and started ten games last year at RG/RT and wasn't even one of the 400 players profiled on this board. TT also loves to trade down, because a lot of the guys he's targeting are not rated as high on other team's boards.
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Old 03-23-2007, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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For what it's worth, IMO, Turner would start on a lot of teams, he's been unfortunate to be stuck behind one of the greats.

I don't pretend to know much about the Pack's team needs outside of RB, but looking at the crop of RB's in this years draft, whats not to like about getting Turner?

If I'm the Packer's GM, I'm interested.
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Old 03-24-2007, 02:24 AM    (permalink
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Old 03-24-2007, 02:56 AM    (permalink
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The reason Tony Moll wasn't rated by many draftniks was because he made the transition late to OL. A lot of people knew about his raw skills, they just didn't know where to put him. But with a ZBS, they were willing to take a gamble on the skills and to develop him.

But back to the thread's point. I think Michael Turner is a good gamble to make if they don't think they can get either of the top 2 RB's. While he is of a similar build to LaMont Jordan and their running style is somewhat similar, Turner has a bit more pop and quickness, IMO, than Jordan (at relative physical points). I think Turner would be an excellent fit for the Packers.

What does he value at? Comparing to Schaub makes little sense outside of the RFA tender due to positioning. Also, comparatively, between positions, Schaub was valued more as a QB than Turner as a RB, IMO (but that's a hard thing to quantify, as there is no measure, so it's really just my opinion). There are some concerns with Turner, and RB's can be found.

Thomas Jones netted a swap of 2nd round picks that, depending on the draft value chart used, basically comes out as a high 3rd, although some charts may move it up to a late 2nd. Turner's upside and the fact that any team would sign him to a likely sign him to a long term deal, should bring about more value. A simple swap of 1st round picks probably isn't enough. My guess, and this is just a random guess, would be

a) a swap of 1sts, and San Diego gets the 109th

or

b) someone noted this already, a swap of 1sts and a swap of 3rds

Both equate to about the same value. If I'm San Diego, I would prefer the 2nd one. If I'm Green Bay, I'd do the first one. San Diego would get an early-mid 2nd value, while Green Bay would get a potential feature back, allowing them to wait until later to add a running back through the draft.
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Old 03-24-2007, 03:45 AM    (permalink
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As a Charger fan I have had the pleasure of seeing plenty of Michael Turner, and he is a FANTASTIC back. Check out this limited highlight reel of him: http://www.dailymotion.com/jcdavey/v...1idt5_turnburn

The kid runs so hard and never gets tackled by the first guy that hits him. Whoever gets him will be lucky, the Chargers front office and coaching staff absolutely love the kid and rave about him constantly.
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Old 03-24-2007, 03:55 AM    (permalink
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Both equate to about the same value. If I'm San Diego, I would prefer the 2nd one. If I'm Green Bay, I'd do the first one. San Diego would get an early-mid 2nd value, while Green Bay would get a potential feature back, allowing them to wait until later to add a running back through the draft.
Early-mid 2nd value for Turner? Edge and Alexander couldn't fetch a 2nd round pick two years ago, and Thomas Jones just fetched high 3rd-low 2nd value as you said earlier in this post. Does the fact that Turner is 25 not only completely make up for the fact that he's relatively unproven in the NFL, but make him more valuable than franchise caliber backs that are 3 years older?
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Old 03-24-2007, 04:27 AM    (permalink
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im glad some people are smart enough to realize that getting 8 carries behind a great back, its not hard to have a "guady" YPC, or get the long gains...


does he have potential? yes, alot of it, and he is talented...but its useless trying to post his YPC or stats in backup duty, id like to see how he does in green bay though...

on their side its smart, turner is better then every back aside from peterson who they have no chance of getting, he will have a greater impact then a late rd RB, and they need production this year...they dont seemed to be too interested in life after favre, so why not trade the picks for an impact back....package up moss, and they did a pretty nice job trying to make a final run
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Old 03-24-2007, 09:52 AM    (permalink
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You would regret that **** my friend. Turner is a beast, I think any team would hate to see him enter their division. I guarantee that if Turner is a starter this coming year, he has a bigger impact than any rookie RB other than maybe AD.
And i love him, and I know he's going to do a super job. He is most definately worth a first and a third.
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Old 03-24-2007, 11:27 AM    (permalink
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Old 03-24-2007, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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The level of tender tells the story a lot. If they felt he was worth a 2nd rounder, they would have tendered him at that level, and would have saved a lot of money. If they thought he was just worth a first, they'd have tendered him at 1st round level and saved some money. The fact they used a 1st and 3rd says they feel he is worth more than a 1st rounder.

I see swapping 1st rounders and then additional compensation as fair trades for both sides. The question becomes what the additional compensation is. I see 3 options possible. The highest would be the packer's 2nd round pick. It could be a 3rd round pick, or it could be swapping 2nd's. I'm not sure swapping 3rds would be enough ammo.

I could potentially see the charges using additional picks to move up from 16 to the top 10 to go after Landry over Nelson as well if some form of this trade happens.
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Old 03-24-2007, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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The level of tender tells the story a lot. If they felt he was worth a 2nd rounder, they would have tendered him at that level, and would have saved a lot of money. If they thought he was just worth a first, they'd have tendered him at 1st round level and saved some money. The fact they used a 1st and 3rd says they feel he is worth more than a 1st rounder.

I see swapping 1st rounders and then additional compensation as fair trades for both sides. The question becomes what the additional compensation is. I see 3 options possible. The highest would be the packer's 2nd round pick. It could be a 3rd round pick, or it could be swapping 2nd's. I'm not sure swapping 3rds would be enough ammo.

I could potentially see the charges using additional picks to move up from 16 to the top 10 to go after Landry over Nelson as well if some form of this trade happens.
Not really. It's more to do with what they think they could get for him, rather than what they think he's worth. The difference in money is not that big of a deal, so why wouldn't they give him the highest tender knowing that teams will have to negotiate with them, rather than dictating the price for Turner. Chances are that if they want to deal they're going to have to accept something at a 2nd round value anyway, they would just prefer to do it on their own terms.
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Old 03-24-2007, 12:54 PM    (permalink
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The Packers aren't going to give up draft picks to get Michael Turner.
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Old 03-24-2007, 12:59 PM    (permalink
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Early-mid 2nd value for Turner? Edge and Alexander couldn't fetch a 2nd round pick two years ago, and Thomas Jones just fetched high 3rd-low 2nd value as you said earlier in this post. Does the fact that Turner is 25 not only completely make up for the fact that he's relatively unproven in the NFL, but make him more valuable than franchise caliber backs that are 3 years older?

RBs age in dog years in the NFL. A 25 year old running back and a 28 year old running back are like a 4 year old dog in his prime with his whole life ahead of him and a 7 year old dog with a couple good years left before he reaches "do nothing all day" status, respectively.
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Old 03-24-2007, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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The tender level was only an effort to ensure maximum trade opportunities, and not necessarily what they can get.

As for Turner's value, for me, it's a factor of age, the ever-dangerous word "potential", and the realities of the market/draft. There simply aren't that many backs this year that draw a lot of attention. Everyone acknowledges that the drop from first tier to 2nd tier RB's in the draft is huge, moreso than in other years, and there's enough teams looking for running back help.
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Old 03-25-2007, 02:41 PM    (permalink
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Turner's value is about as high as your going to find for a running back right now.

Yes, he will be a free agent next year but good luck fighting 10-15 other teams for his services. If you can get him locked up before the trade, this is a great move.

He's still young (24 or 25) and has already shown he can be a dominant. There is no reason to think he can't carry the load. Personally, I'd take him over Marshawn Lynch. The downside on him is that he would have to carry a bigger contract than a rookie, so I would probably drop him to a late first/early second value.

So, swapping 1st and 3rd picks sounds like an excellent deal to me for the Packers.
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Old 03-25-2007, 03:20 PM    (permalink
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Turner's value is about as high as your going to find for a running back right now.

Yes, he will be a free agent next year but good luck fighting 10-15 other teams for his services. If you can get him locked up before the trade, this is a great move.

He's still young (24 or 25) and has already shown he can be a dominant. There is no reason to think he can't carry the load. Personally, I'd take him over Marshawn Lynch. The downside on him is that he would have to carry a bigger contract than a rookie, so I would probably drop him to a late first/early second value.

So, swapping 1st and 3rd picks sounds like an excellent deal to me for the Packers.
Wow, he has shown that he can be dominant? When was this? I was under the impression that he was a backup RB who gets 5-10 carries a game. I'm not saying that he doesn't have great potential, because he does, I'm just saying you can't call a backup RB who hasn't proven a thing dominant. He is coveted the way Shaub is; neither have proven much, but most believe that they have the potential to be good.
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Old 03-25-2007, 03:37 PM    (permalink
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As a Charger fan I have had the pleasure of seeing plenty of Michael Turner, and he is a FANTASTIC back. Check out this limited highlight reel of him: http://www.dailymotion.com/jcdavey/v...1idt5_turnburn

The kid runs so hard and never gets tackled by the first guy that hits him. Whoever gets him will be lucky, the Chargers front office and coaching staff absolutely love the kid and rave about him constantly.
Thanks for posting that! I've been looking all over for a great highlight reel on him. Thanks to JCDavey for making it, too!
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Old 03-25-2007, 03:49 PM    (permalink
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Lamont Jordan was a great backup to Curtis Martin with the Jets and was constantly involved in trade rumors. There were even people advocating cutting or forcing retirement on Curtis Martin so that they wouldn't lose Jordan.

It's easily to have a high YPC when you're only running the ball 7-8 times per game.

I personally think Turner will be a good starting runningback (and don't think Jordan is terrible either) but to assume that just because he's done well as a backup to the best runningback in the league means that he'll do as well elsewhere is unfounded.

And how old are you? Do you not remember Jordan pre-Raiders?
Never watched Jets games often and when I saw them I barely saw Jordan, and I didn't think he was that good
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Old 03-25-2007, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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i wonder if they would do what the texans did and swap 1st and give up a 2nd round pick (hopefully not two 2nd rounders)
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Old 03-25-2007, 06:53 PM    (permalink
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Wow, he has shown that he can be dominant? When was this? I was under the impression that he was a backup RB who gets 5-10 carries a game. I'm not saying that he doesn't have great potential, because he does, I'm just saying you can't call a backup RB who hasn't proven a thing dominant. He is coveted the way Shaub is; neither have proven much, but most believe that they have the potential to be good.
Every time he's stepped on the field, he's looked very good. He's shown he has the speed and power to run on an NFL defense. That is something no college back has done yet.

He's made plenty of amazing plays spelling LT against first team defenses. You can argue that LT wore the D's out or that Rivers/Brees kept the D honest but the kid was still averaging over 6 yards a carry.

Big difference between him and Schaub. Schaub looked good in a few games - Turner has looked very good in numerous games. The kid is nearly 240 pounds and has amazing acceleration on kickoff returns.

There isn't to many running backs I would say would have a better value at this point than Turner. LJ, Ronnie Brown, LT, Portis and maybe Bush, Maroney, Duece and Cadillac. He is young, he has fresh legs, he is verstatile, he's a freak athletically.
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Old 03-25-2007, 07:01 PM    (permalink
myinnerself
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Honestly, if anyone questions the kid just watch the highlight video I post above. The kid produces and is a great back. If that highlight video doesn't impress you, I don't know what will. He is more proven than any college back, because he has shown he can produce AT THIS LEVEL.
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