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Old 06-01-2011, 11:44 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Duffman57 View Post
The question I have is what makes Jones such a better option than a Vincent Jackson if their essentially committing to the win now mentality? Vincent Jackson costs less, is a proven star, top 10 receiver in the league when he plays and is ready to go right now. why would they spend 2 1sts, a 2nd and 2 4th when they could have given 2 2nds at the most for VJ the day that the lockout was postponed?
VJ is a functional alcoholic and one more strike from being suspended for the year by the NFL.

Given the choice, it's usually better for a franchise in the long run to draft their own talent instead of signing them as FAs.
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Old 06-02-2011, 08:07 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:

#6 pick = 1600

#27th pick = 680
#59th pick = 310
#124th pick = 48

You had to factor in that a 2012 pick drops a round when traded for a 2011 pick.
No you don't.

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1st round pick next year = 310
4th round pick next year = 29.4

Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4
(optimistically-for ATL..) about 600 so around 1760 or more.

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Cleveland then had to give up their own 3rd #77, to get Taylor = 205 points, so in effect, Cleveland got only 1272.4 points for the trade if you factor in the Taylor trade.
Cmon No. What they do after the actual trade shouldn't change it's value.

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These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.
IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value.
Worse yet, because of the hesitation by Baltimore, Cleveland ended up with the 26th pick instead of the 27th pick costing them another 20 points.
You can argue all you want about how good a prospect Jones is but he was going in the top 10 even with an injury considered worse than Crabtree's, and has a real shot to be a huge star at the next level. IMO, he will easily replace White as their #1 option.

I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.
I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.
Ok, getting a little comical. Julio ought to be the Falcons new #1 in a couple barring injury issues but even if he's the best WR in the league in a few I still might say pass on him now. The value of taking a WR especially high is just not there unless your a team with little weaknesses and even then it's not necessarily a good thing. If you were clamoring about the Browns passing Fairley or another big value position I could understand maby a little better.

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Originally Posted by VAfy-ya View Post
Not to hi-jack the OP's thread, but these scenarios you've mentioned have nothing to do with one another, nor the Falcons trade. No one player other than a QB can change a team's fortune on Sundays, as a whole. Crabtree, Dez, Nicks, nor Britt were reaches. They were needs(except maybe for Dallas), which those teams drafted for accordingly. Crabtree fell to the Niners and was regarded as huge value at the time. Nicks may have been a mild reach to some but I thought he had first round talent. Britt was decent value. I don't see the connection, as none of them were thought to be the missing piece to anything to special. Just upgrades at positions of need. Now those free agent signings might help your argument to some degree.
More true than false but definitely debatable.

Didn't mean to say Dez, Nicks or Britt were reaches ( but Crab imo certainly was), point is, even when a first round WR is successful it usually has little impact on the team record-unless they're a phenom.

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Originally Posted by BamaFalcon59 View Post
These are my thoughts.

IMO it's pretty parallel to the Isac Bruce/ Torry Holt situation. Bruce was the first pick in the second round and only going on 27 when Holt was selected in the first round in 1996. Holt was a similar receiver to Bruce and selected with the sixth pick in the draft. Their dominance overlapped for a few years and once Bruce began to decline Holt continued to be in his prime.
Completely agree. Jones should be a solid Dimitroff pick and become the Falcons eventual #1 but is that enough? I see this trade made with SB in mind.
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Old 06-02-2011, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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point is, even when a first round WR is successful it usually has little impact on the team record-unless they're a phenom.
Well at 6'3" 220 and running a sub 4.4/40 on a broken foot, IMO it's very possible Jones is a phenom.

Plus your argument is kind of faulty considering that teams that draft a wr in the first tend to be crappy, not coming off a 13 - 3 season. JJ doesn't have to be the savior all he has to do is come in and affect things, give ryan an additional weapon, help take coverage off of roddy white, etc
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Old 06-08-2011, 01:39 PM    (permalink
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#2 - The Packers in the playoffs would not have been stopped by any defense in the history of the NFL.
This is definitely one of the top ten stupidest things ever said on this site.

I mean, holy crap is that dumb.
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Old 06-08-2011, 06:19 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Trade Value Chart analysis of the trade:
Grand Total paid for the #6 pick = 1477.4

These are the facts not suppositions and if I'm the GM giving up the #6 pick, to move back to #27, I would want a bonus for going back that far, say an extra 100 points = 1700. The FACT Cleveland only got 1477.4 for the trade makes the trade stink for them and to further worsen the trade, Cleveland had to expend a further 205 points to get a decent return in round 1.

IMO, Dimitroff took Cleveland to the cleaners in this trade, and other GM's are wondering how they missed out. They are all walking around trying to figure out why Cleveland made this trade for so little value. I see no way Cleveland got value for the #6 pick and the trade could even look worse if Atlanta finishes with a higher pick than #27 next year.

I've seen a lot of trades over my 55 years of following the NFL closely and this will go down as one of the worst for Cleveland.

For a total of 1662 points and even then Cleveland still lost 225 points in trades. I see absolutely no way this trade made any sense on Cleveland's part.
It is easy to see. Phil Taylor was the guy they wanted out of this whole draft class. You can argue value by the chart, and I will grant that Cleveland got the short end in both cases. However, the cumulative difference is a mid 3rd round pick, which is not out of line if PT is their guy.

As to whether Phil Taylor deserves the pick, I can think of no reason to doubt it. While the Browns have a similar player in Rubin, there is no reason not to play them together. The Ravens of 10 years ago ran a double NT 4-3 to great effect, including a SB Championship. Breaking down the 1st round, the Chiefs were the first team, out of the top 10, seriously in the market for a NT. Like the Cowboys taking a Tyron Smith at #9, the logic of Taylor lasting to the Chiefs, and them grabbing him, was there.

Again, going back to Baltimore circa 2000, the DEs can be a bit undersized, as long as they are very active. They need to provide both pass rush and close of the edges in the running game. Hence someone like Sheard, who is technically sound, but smallish. So the two picks hang together well, which leads me to believe in a design at work. Of course you also need a great MLB, but that is not an area the Browns are considered short.

So, the Browns get their guy, and a WR, plus a 1st round pick in 2012. The other picks about wash out the 3rd they gave up. If Taylor is that good, and he might be, this deal makes perfect sense. Put it another way, if the Browns figure Taylor was valued at about pick #15, but would slide to #21, the deal makes perfect sense.

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Old 06-08-2011, 07:45 PM    (permalink
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Well at 6'3" 220 and running a sub 4.4/40 on a broken foot, IMO it's very possible Jones is a phenom.

Plus your argument is kind of faulty considering that teams that draft a wr in the first tend to be crappy, not coming off a 13 - 3 season. JJ doesn't have to be the savior all he has to do is come in and affect things, give ryan an additional weapon, help take coverage off of roddy white, etc
Pretty much this. Good players have a better chance to fulfill their potential on a good team. Julio Jones will be getting a good share of balls thrown his way but he won't be double teamed and defended by the #1 CB. He's not asked to come in and put up record numbers right away, he has a chance to learn and steadily grow.
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Old 06-08-2011, 11:36 PM    (permalink
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This is definitely one of the top ten stupidest things ever said on this site.

I mean, holy crap is that dumb.
What defense stops that offense, with Rodgers playing the way he did, in the Georgia dome that night? None.
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Old 06-09-2011, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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What defense stops that offense, with Rodgers playing the way he did, in the Georgia dome that night? None.

Even a Steelers fan would say the defense they fielded last season wasn't vintage for the current (last 5-10 years) Pittsburgh crew.

There have been SB teams with better defenses than the Steelers last season, point blank.

If the 2007-2008 NY Giants could hold arguably the greatest scoring offense in modern NFL history to 14 points, I have no doubt there are several SB defenses who would have hit Rodgers in his mouth and disrupted the timing on their passing game, along with fielding enough secondary talent to lockdown his WRs.

GB was great last year in the playoffs and have the Lombardi to prove it, but to suggest NO SB TEAM had the defense to slow that attack down is a ridiculous statement, IMO.
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Old 06-09-2011, 12:47 PM    (permalink
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Teams winning Super Bowls in recent years have been able to score in bunches. Scoring more points helps a team's defense and the Falcons still have free agency to add a defensive playmaker.
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Old 06-09-2011, 01:31 PM    (permalink
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and 28 teams passed on joe montana, some more than once. fallacious argument is fallacious.
Again, people mistake what players become with how they rated as prospects. Nobody can tell how a prospect will develop or how much effort he will put in to be great. 28 teams passed on Montana because as a prospect, he had weaknesses and 20 teams passed on Taylor because he has weaknesses.
It is your argument that is fallacious. Teams pass on prospects because of what they see at that moment. What players become is a completely different question?
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Old 06-09-2011, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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What defense stops that offense, with Rodgers playing the way he did, in the Georgia dome that night? None.
Someone's trolling...

The 2010 Packers were not the best offense in history or anything like that. They weren't even the best offense in the NFL this season, let alone all-time. They scored fewer points than Jon Kitna's powerhouse Cowboys. In fact, they were tenth.

When you look at the best defenses ever, the thought of this is just ridiculous. There's been a team that won its three playoff games by a combined score of 91-10, with back-to-back shutouts. There was once a championship game won 73-0.

This Packers offense did not steamroll its opponents. It wasn't dominant.
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Old 06-17-2011, 10:05 PM    (permalink
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Someone's trolling...

The 2010 Packers were not the best offense in history or anything like that. They weren't even the best offense in the NFL this season, let alone all-time. They scored fewer points than Jon Kitna's powerhouse Cowboys. In fact, they were tenth.

When you look at the best defenses ever, the thought of this is just ridiculous. There's been a team that won its three playoff games by a combined score of 91-10, with back-to-back shutouts. There was once a championship game won 73-0.

This Packers offense did not steamroll its opponents. It wasn't dominant.
Re-read what I wrote. ON THAT NIGHT - no defense stops the Packers. If you think that's ridiculous you didn't watch that game.
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Old 06-17-2011, 10:17 PM    (permalink
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Re-read what I wrote. ON THAT NIGHT - no defense stops the Packers. If you think that's ridiculous you didn't watch that game.
Well, injuries aside on both teams, that night Rodgers was firing on all cylinders. His wide receivers were the ones that kept dropping clutch passes. With the three Steeler turnovers...if those receivers had caught the ball more consistently, it would've been a blowout. And this is coming from a Steeler fan.
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Old 06-17-2011, 10:21 PM    (permalink
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Even a Steelers fan would say the defense they fielded last season wasn't vintage for the current (last 5-10 years) Pittsburgh crew.

There have been SB teams with better defenses than the Steelers last season, point blank.

If the 2007-2008 NY Giants could hold arguably the greatest scoring offense in modern NFL history to 14 points, I have no doubt there are several SB defenses who would have hit Rodgers in his mouth and disrupted the timing on their passing game, along with fielding enough secondary talent to lockdown his WRs.

GB was great last year in the playoffs and have the Lombardi to prove it, but to suggest NO SB TEAM had the defense to slow that attack down is a ridiculous statement, IMO.
True...the Giants knew how to beat Brady, and they did so to perfection. The Steelers' defense relies to heavily on stopping the run, forcing pressure on a QB and creating turnovers. Problem is, when you have guys like Rodgers, Brady, Manning, and Brees, they tend to get rid of the ball before the pressure comes, negating the pass-rush, lessening the turnovers, and the Steelers just haven't been successful against the thread because of it.

The Giants collapsed the pocket and brought speed rushers from all over the field. Brady never knew where the pressure was coming from, but he KNEW it was coming. That was a brilliant defensive plan that night.

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Old 06-19-2011, 08:56 PM    (permalink
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A lot of Falcons homers in this thread. I'm a Falcons fans but don't get it twisted that was a bad trade on our part. We gave up too much and the only way it is justified is if we win a Superbowl in the next few years and Julio plays a big part in our championship run.

There are so many illogical arguments for why the trade was good for the Falcons. My favorite is "well we are so good those draft picks would be wasted anyways on players that won't make an impact" at the same time they say Dimitroff is an outstanding GM who will pick up starters and impact players in the middle rounds. So which is it? By saying those picks are worthless they are saying Dimitroff won't make any good picks.

Talk about Jones' potential all you want, but it is just that, POTENTIAL. I'm a big fan of the guy and wrote a very positive scouting report on him last year but we could all be wrong. He could easily bust, especially since he already has some concentration issues. What if he never fixes that? It's a big risk. That's why I think it's a bad move to give up so much for an unproven player. Would I do that same trade for Fitzgerald? Probably yes because I at least know I'm getting a great PROVEN receiver who can step in and start right away. Julio may take 3 years to finally evolve into the players the Falcons wanted, much like Roddy White.

The ones in favor of this trade are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming he can start from Day 1 and produce like a vet, that he can make our offense a lot better, that he can make us take that next step and win in the playoffs etc. None of that is certain.
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Old 06-19-2011, 09:42 PM    (permalink
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A lot of Falcons homers in this thread. I'm a Falcons fans but don't get it twisted that was a bad trade on our part. We gave up too much and the only way it is justified is if we win a Superbowl in the next few years and Julio plays a big part in our championship run.

There are so many illogical arguments for why the trade was good for the Falcons. My favorite is "well we are so good those draft picks would be wasted anyways on players that won't make an impact" at the same time they say Dimitroff is an outstanding GM who will pick up starters and impact players in the middle rounds. So which is it? By saying those picks are worthless they are saying Dimitroff won't make any good picks.

Talk about Jones' potential all you want, but it is just that, POTENTIAL. I'm a big fan of the guy and wrote a very positive scouting report on him last year but we could all be wrong. He could easily bust, especially since he already has some concentration issues. What if he never fixes that? It's a big risk. That's why I think it's a bad move to give up so much for an unproven player. Would I do that same trade for Fitzgerald? Probably yes because I at least know I'm getting a great PROVEN receiver who can step in and start right away. Julio may take 3 years to finally evolve into the players the Falcons wanted, much like Roddy White.

The ones in favor of this trade are making a lot of assumptions. They are assuming he can start from Day 1 and produce like a vet, that he can make our offense a lot better, that he can make us take that next step and win in the playoffs etc. None of that is certain.
So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.
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Old 06-19-2011, 09:50 PM    (permalink
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I honestly hated the trade for Atlanta. There isn't a wide receiver in the NFL I would consider giving up two first round picks for. And Julio isn't even going to be the Falcons' number one guy. They could have had Gabe Carimi, Greg Little and a first round pick instead. I think that is a much better haul than just Julio.
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Old 06-19-2011, 10:45 PM    (permalink
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So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.
It would be pretty hard for Julio to have a bigger impact than 5 players could. Julio better be a top 5 receiver in order for this trade to not completely suck for them. I have a very, very hard time believing Julio Jones is gonna be 4 players better than a receiver they could have taken in the 20s, or even the second round.
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Old 06-19-2011, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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I honestly hated the trade for Atlanta. There isn't a wide receiver in the NFL I would consider giving up two first round picks for. And Julio isn't even going to be the Falcons' number one guy. They could have had Gabe Carimi, Greg Little and a first round pick instead. I think that is a much better haul than just Julio.
THIS is spot on!!
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Old 06-19-2011, 11:24 PM    (permalink
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The NFL is not all about quantity. If having more picks automatically makes a team better, why have the Browns remained bad the last couple of years, while the Jets made the AFCCG two years in a row. The Falcons entered the Draft with 9 picks. They didn't need them all. Julio Jones doesn't need to live up to some nonsensical fan math about being 4 players better or whatever. He needs to be a star WR who provides Ryan with another weapon and takes pressure off White.
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Old 06-20-2011, 01:11 AM    (permalink
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Which wasn't worth all that they traded, since they could have got similar short term production with in all likelihood, as well have gotten improvements in other areas rather than wasting all that on a receiver.
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Old 06-20-2011, 01:12 AM    (permalink
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Put me in the camp who loved the trade. Julio is gonna prove worth it, and his development couldn't have happened in a better place. Close to home, young QB to grow with, and dominant #1 WR to take the pressure off of him as he learns the game instead of playing for a team like Cleveland where he gets all the attention.


I felt Julio would go on to be a top 5 WR for whoever he played for, ATL is a seamless transition. Once he turns into a stud nobody will remember what they gave up for him.
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Old 06-20-2011, 02:40 AM    (permalink
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Put me in the camp who loved the trade. Julio is gonna prove worth it, and his development couldn't have happened in a better place. Close to home, young QB to grow with, and dominant #1 WR to take the pressure off of him as he learns the game instead of playing for a team like Cleveland where he gets all the attention.


I felt Julio would go on to be a top 5 WR for whoever he played for, ATL is a seamless transition. Once he turns into a stud nobody will remember what they gave up for him.
Hey...We all thought "what a place to go"...but man, what a price.
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Old 06-20-2011, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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For everyone who thinks all those picks are so valuable, tell me the last time the Falcons or Browns got an impact player in the 4th round. The vast majority of 4th round picks are average joes and many don't ever see the field in the NFL. Even 2nd round round picks are hit and miss. Especially late 2nds. The Falcons lost out on maybe 2 or 3 impact players by trading for Jones.
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Old 06-20-2011, 10:52 AM    (permalink
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for everyone who thinks the 6th overall pick is the most valuable pick in draft history.
As usual you rely on exaggeration because you can't argue my point. :D
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