The ATL Trade? - Page 5

LonghornsLegend · 06-20-2011, 01:12 AM

Put me in the camp who loved the trade. Julio is gonna prove worth it, and his development couldn't have happened in a better place. Close to home, young QB to grow with, and dominant #1 WR to take the pressure off of him as he learns the game instead of playing for a team like Cleveland where he gets all the attention.

I felt Julio would go on to be a top 5 WR for whoever he played for, ATL is a seamless transition. Once he turns into a stud nobody will remember what they gave up for him.

ellsy82 · 06-20-2011, 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend

Put me in the camp who loved the trade. Julio is gonna prove worth it, and his development couldn't have happened in a better place. Close to home, young QB to grow with, and dominant #1 WR to take the pressure off of him as he learns the game instead of playing for a team like Cleveland where he gets all the attention.

I felt Julio would go on to be a top 5 WR for whoever he played for, ATL is a seamless transition. Once he turns into a stud nobody will remember what they gave up for him.

Hey...We all thought "what a place to go"...but man, what a price.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 09:41 AM

For everyone who thinks all those picks are so valuable, tell me the last time the Falcons or Browns got an impact player in the 4th round. The vast majority of 4th round picks are average joes and many don't ever see the field in the NFL. Even 2nd round round picks are hit and miss. Especially late 2nds. The Falcons lost out on maybe 2 or 3 impact players by trading for Jones.

njx9 · 06-20-2011, 10:27 AM

for everyone who thinks the 6th overall pick is the most valuable pick in draft history, tell me the last time the falcons got an impact player at 6 overall. oh wait, you mean that's a ridiculous, irrelevant argument? right. ok.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by njx9

for everyone who thinks the 6th overall pick is the most valuable pick in draft history.

As usual you rely on exaggeration because you can't argue my point. :D

njx9 · 06-20-2011, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

As usual you rely on exaggeration because you can't argue my point. :D

because your 'point' is inane, nonsensical and completely not worth 'arguing'. and that's being generous.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by njx9

because your 'point' is inane

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

OGDraft · 06-20-2011, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.

No I'm not. I'm saying we gave up too much. You say it's worth it. No rookie is worth that much. I don't know how you could read that and say I agree with all of you saying it was a great trade for the Falcons.

It's going to be funny when Julio has a mediocre rookie season as our #2 receiver and everyone is going to be panicking screaming BUST! and complaining about the trade. The expectations are set so high for him already and people are going to rip him every time he drops a pass or has 1 bad game.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 11:01 AM

I'm not saying the trade is worth it. I'm saying it could potentially be worth it. Trying to come up with a conclusive opinion on the trade is simple minded. Julio Jones might be a star WR for a decade or he might tear his knee up in week two of this season and never be the same again. Time will determine if the trade was worth it, not opinions on message boards.

OGDraft · 06-20-2011, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

I'm not saying the trade is worth it. I'm saying it could potentially be worth it. Trying to come up with a conclusive opinion on the trade is simple minded. Julio Jones might be a star WR for a decade or he might tear his knee up in week two of this season and never be the same again. Time will determine if the trade was worth it, not opinions on message boards.

Obviously true, but it's the off-season we gotta debate something lol. I can assume he busts or becomes Andre Johnson but that's useless. I'm looking it at simply like "was that WR prospect worth that much?".

ArkyRamsFan · 06-20-2011, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

Depends upon what you consider an "impact" player to be. 4th rounders are used for players who can shore up a teams depth and push for a starting job in the near future.

Also, the picks themselves make good bargaining chips if a trade up is desired.

Look, there are only 7 rounds in the draft and the 4th is right in the middle of it. I think that NFL GMs have a much different attitude than you do about the value of maximizing each pick that they have.

They are simply too valuable to waste.

Especially on a guy who plays a position that could be easily filled elsewhere in the draft.

LonghornsLegend · 06-20-2011, 12:22 PM

I actually think the Rams are going to regret not trading up to get him at which would be a cheaper cost, that's how good I think Julio is going to be. It's lofty expectations with the price tag but he's gonna prove alot of people wrong who had AJ Green rated higher. I don't have alot of proof to back that up with, just that I'm fine with the risk involved knowing what type of player I think he'll be.

Should be a fun thread to bump after a few years.

ATLDirtyBirds · 06-20-2011, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

It's not so much that 4th rounders are nothing to sleep over, it's the fact that Dimitroff has confidence in some of the other rounds 3-7 picks he's made over the past couple of seasons. We'll see how that works out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend

I actually think the Rams are going to regret not trading up to get him at which would be a cheaper cost, that's how good I think Julio is going to be. It's lofty expectations with the price tag but he's gonna prove alot of people wrong who had AJ Green rated higher. I don't have alot of proof to back that up with, just that I'm fine with the risk involved knowing what type of player I think he'll be.

Should be a fun thread to bump after a few years.

I was listening to a Billy Devaney (Rams GM) a few weeks back. Basically said he loved everything about Julio, and had him as the top player in the class. If he fell down a little more they were going to move up (most likely with Dallas) and snag him.

TitanHope · 06-20-2011, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

You make that 4th-UDFA players, and that number grows. The draft isn't meant for immediate impact. It's to build for the future and to create depth for longevity. There are some guys who can start from day one, but that's not usually the norm. If you want immediate impact, you get it through FA with veterans that aren't fresh out of college.

Look at some Falcons players taken from the 4th-UDFA: FB Ovie Mughelli (FA signing), DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr., LB Stephen Nicholas, RB Jason Snelling, RB Michael Turner (FA signing), G Harvey Dahl, C Todd McClure, T Tyson Clabo, DE Kroy Biermann, and CB Brent Grimes.

There are some key players here. Some guys need development. Sidbury isn't an impact guy now, but he's a possible building block for the future. Grimes didn't become as good as he is overnight. Plus, depth is key. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl after converting half the training facility into an infirmary. A team disregarding these players because they don't provide "immediate impact" is mortgaging the future for the present, and in a league where turnover happens often and a good team one year may be poor the next, I'm not sure it's wise to take that approach - especially when it's for an unknown commodity.

njx9 · 06-20-2011, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

because that's completely relevant. the fact that they never hit on a fourth rounder with such long-standing management in place (i mean, it hasn't changed in years, right? we have a seriously good sample size to work from) is completely and utterly meaningless.

your point *should* boil down to 'it's a great trade because julio jones will help this team win a super bowl'. instead, you keep groping around for some way to show that it was, in definitive fact, a good move. no such evidence exists. period. until all of the picks have turned out, and unless we know exactly who the falcons would've taken with those picks and how they turned out, you cannot logically argue the 'point' you seem to think you're making. homer it up all you want, but please look up 'logic' if you have any future intention of suggesting you're using it in a discussion.

AntoinCD · 06-20-2011, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.

Some teams dont even get impact players in the first round. Generally the better teams dont have enough spaces to fill in their starting lineup to be getting impact players throughout the draft. However they are able to improve their depth situation. Sure, for example, the OG prospect drafted in the 4th round may not be the sexy choice and may never crack the starting lineup but he will be an integral member of the team who doesnt miss a beat if called upon to cover an injury.

Last year the Green Bay Packers were ravaged by injuries but won the Superbowl due to amazing depth.

The New England Patriots are probably the best team at drafting late round players and teaching them up so that they can learn the system and fill in when needed. Both starting OGs for them lost significant time last year yet the line still protected Brady well and paved the way for a 1000yard back.

If you think the Falcons are going to be successful by having 22 impact players and nothing else then you're kidding yourself. Teams have a 53 man roster for a reason and the reserve spots are often some of the most important

TitanHope · 06-20-2011, 05:36 PM

Halsey has never been in a forum mock. Those 4th RD'ers are like catnip for draftniks.

OGDraft · 06-20-2011, 06:09 PM

Agreed with the previous 4 posts. Great posts with great points.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArkyRamsFan

Especially on a guy who plays a position that could be easily filled elsewhere in the draft.

Any position can be filled at any point in the Draft. This is garbage logic. There's no rule against drafting any position in any round.

Just because people on message boards call it Jones a wasted pick doesn't make it true. Again, whether or not Jones was a waste will be determined in time. Not by simple minded proclamations on a message board.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanHope

I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 08:26 PM

It's obvious that some of you love draft picks so much that you value quantity and have no consideration for quality. If quantity was all that mattered, the team with the most picks would always get the best return on their Draft. The reality is teams with lots of picks usually end up cutting many of the picked players, because there's not enough room for them all.

gpngc · 06-20-2011, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitanHope

I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

You make that 4th-UDFA players, and that number grows. The draft isn't meant for immediate impact. It's to build for the future and to create depth for longevity. There are some guys who can start from day one, but that's not usually the norm. If you want immediate impact, you get it through FA with veterans that aren't fresh out of college.

Look at some Falcons players taken from the 4th-UDFA: FB Ovie Mughelli (FA signing), DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr., LB Stephen Nicholas, RB Jason Snelling, RB Michael Turner (FA signing), G Harvey Dahl, C Todd McClure, T Tyson Clabo, DE Kroy Biermann, and CB Brent Grimes.

There are some key players here. Some guys need development. Sidbury isn't an impact guy now, but he's a possible building block for the future. Grimes didn't become as good as he is overnight. Plus, depth is key. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl after converting half the training facility into an infirmary. A team disregarding these players because they don't provide "immediate impact" is mortgaging the future for the present, and in a league where turnover happens often and a good team one year may be poor the next, I'm not sure it's wise to take that approach - especially when it's for an unknown commodity.

And look how many 4th-UDFA are out of the league... you just named all the good ones...

Fourth round success rate from 2003-2006

2003: TEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those ten players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2004: SEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those seven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2005: ELEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. About FIVE of those eleven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick (tough: Kerry Rhodes, Orton, MB3, Sproles).

2006: THIRTEEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those thirteen players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

Average of 35 picks in the fourth round each year.

35 x 4 = 140

41 out of 140 players (29.3 %) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them.

About 17 of 140 players (12%) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

*My stats may be a little off as I did this fairly quickly. Go ahead and add % points if you wish, my point still stands because you'll never get near 50%. The risk/reward dynamic in the fourth round, as I've shown with the stats, makes these picks less valuable than we think (and WANT). Possible a fourth-rounder works out? Yes. Probable. No.

It is logical to assume that trading away a fourth-round pick is trading away a 12% chance of getting a good player and about a 30% chance of getting a contributor.

A chance at Julio Jones-caliber player should not be missed because of well less than a 50/50 shot at finding Seneca Wallace in the fourth round (yes I counted him as a positive contributor).

I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.

Halsey · 06-20-2011, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

.
Last year the Green Bay Packers were ravaged by injuries but won the Superbowl due to amazing depth.

Oh, so it was all about depth? It had nothing to do with the star players leading the team? Riiiiight...

AntoinCD · 06-20-2011, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

Oh, so it was all about depth? It had nothing to do with the star players leading the team? Riiiiight...

Exactly, because my post specifically said "due to amazing depth and nothing to do with star players leading the team".

Of course Rodgers, Matthews, Woodson, Raji, Jennings all were major factors in winning the Superbowl but did Sam Shields not play a big part? Desmond Bishop? James Starks? No, none of them done anything to help the team, right???

I actually think if the Packers had have simply played the superbowl with only first or second rounders on their team they still would have won...you know because of the star players and all.

OGDraft · 06-20-2011, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Halsey

And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.

Seeing as how he is a Titans fan he is probably gonna disagree hard with you calling those guys "average joes" because they're not. All of those guys contributed and Tulloch, McRath, Stewart and Verner all had good seasons. I'm not sure about the other guys. The Titans certainly didn't suck because of those players. They sucked because they didn't have a QB.