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Old 06-20-2011, 11:56 AM    (permalink
Halsey
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
because your 'point' is inane
Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.
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Old 06-20-2011, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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So basically you agree with what everyone else says, but we're homers and you're not: If Julio becomes a star and helps Atlanta win a Super Bowl it's a good trade. If he doesn't become a star and doesn't help Atlanta win a Super Bowl. it was a bad trade.

All these arguments come back to the same conclusion: Nobody is going to know if it was a good trade until we see how Julio plays in the NFL and how much he helps the Falcons.
No I'm not. I'm saying we gave up too much. You say it's worth it. No rookie is worth that much. I don't know how you could read that and say I agree with all of you saying it was a great trade for the Falcons.

It's going to be funny when Julio has a mediocre rookie season as our #2 receiver and everyone is going to be panicking screaming BUST! and complaining about the trade. The expectations are set so high for him already and people are going to rip him every time he drops a pass or has 1 bad game.
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Old 06-20-2011, 12:01 PM    (permalink
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I'm not saying the trade is worth it. I'm saying it could potentially be worth it. Trying to come up with a conclusive opinion on the trade is simple minded. Julio Jones might be a star WR for a decade or he might tear his knee up in week two of this season and never be the same again. Time will determine if the trade was worth it, not opinions on message boards.
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Old 06-20-2011, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
I'm not saying the trade is worth it. I'm saying it could potentially be worth it. Trying to come up with a conclusive opinion on the trade is simple minded. Julio Jones might be a star WR for a decade or he might tear his knee up in week two of this season and never be the same again. Time will determine if the trade was worth it, not opinions on message boards.
Obviously true, but it's the off-season we gotta debate something lol. I can assume he busts or becomes Andre Johnson but that's useless. I'm looking it at simply like "was that WR prospect worth that much?".
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Old 06-20-2011, 01:02 PM    (permalink
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Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.
Depends upon what you consider an "impact" player to be. 4th rounders are used for players who can shore up a teams depth and push for a starting job in the near future.

Also, the picks themselves make good bargaining chips if a trade up is desired.

Look, there are only 7 rounds in the draft and the 4th is right in the middle of it. I think that NFL GMs have a much different attitude than you do about the value of maximizing each pick that they have.

They are simply too valuable to waste.

Especially on a guy who plays a position that could be easily filled elsewhere in the draft.
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Old 06-20-2011, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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I actually think the Rams are going to regret not trading up to get him at which would be a cheaper cost, that's how good I think Julio is going to be. It's lofty expectations with the price tag but he's gonna prove alot of people wrong who had AJ Green rated higher. I don't have alot of proof to back that up with, just that I'm fine with the risk involved knowing what type of player I think he'll be.


Should be a fun thread to bump after a few years.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 06-20-2011, 02:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.
It's not so much that 4th rounders are nothing to sleep over, it's the fact that Dimitroff has confidence in some of the other rounds 3-7 picks he's made over the past couple of seasons. We'll see how that works out.

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I actually think the Rams are going to regret not trading up to get him at which would be a cheaper cost, that's how good I think Julio is going to be. It's lofty expectations with the price tag but he's gonna prove alot of people wrong who had AJ Green rated higher. I don't have alot of proof to back that up with, just that I'm fine with the risk involved knowing what type of player I think he'll be.


Should be a fun thread to bump after a few years.
I was listening to a Billy Devaney (Rams GM) a few weeks back. Basically said he loved everything about Julio, and had him as the top player in the class. If he fell down a little more they were going to move up (most likely with Dallas) and snag him.
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Old 06-20-2011, 04:28 PM    (permalink
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Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.
I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

You make that 4th-UDFA players, and that number grows. The draft isn't meant for immediate impact. It's to build for the future and to create depth for longevity. There are some guys who can start from day one, but that's not usually the norm. If you want immediate impact, you get it through FA with veterans that aren't fresh out of college.

Look at some Falcons players taken from the 4th-UDFA: FB Ovie Mughelli (FA signing), DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr., LB Stephen Nicholas, RB Jason Snelling, RB Michael Turner (FA signing), G Harvey Dahl, C Todd McClure, T Tyson Clabo, DE Kroy Biermann, and CB Brent Grimes.

There are some key players here. Some guys need development. Sidbury isn't an impact guy now, but he's a possible building block for the future. Grimes didn't become as good as he is overnight. Plus, depth is key. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl after converting half the training facility into an infirmary. A team disregarding these players because they don't provide "immediate impact" is mortgaging the future for the present, and in a league where turnover happens often and a good team one year may be poor the next, I'm not sure it's wise to take that approach - especially when it's for an unknown commodity.
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Old 06-20-2011, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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Nope, it's not. 4th rounders are not anything to lose sleep over losing. The fact that you can't name an impact 4th rounder drafted by the Browns or Falcons just backs up my point.
Some teams dont even get impact players in the first round. Generally the better teams dont have enough spaces to fill in their starting lineup to be getting impact players throughout the draft. However they are able to improve their depth situation. Sure, for example, the OG prospect drafted in the 4th round may not be the sexy choice and may never crack the starting lineup but he will be an integral member of the team who doesnt miss a beat if called upon to cover an injury.

Last year the Green Bay Packers were ravaged by injuries but won the Superbowl due to amazing depth.

The New England Patriots are probably the best team at drafting late round players and teaching them up so that they can learn the system and fill in when needed. Both starting OGs for them lost significant time last year yet the line still protected Brady well and paved the way for a 1000yard back.

If you think the Falcons are going to be successful by having 22 impact players and nothing else then you're kidding yourself. Teams have a 53 man roster for a reason and the reserve spots are often some of the most important
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Old 06-20-2011, 06:36 PM    (permalink
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Halsey has never been in a forum mock. Those 4th RD'ers are like catnip for draftniks.
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Old 06-20-2011, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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Agreed with the previous 4 posts. Great posts with great points.
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Old 06-20-2011, 09:14 PM    (permalink
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Especially on a guy who plays a position that could be easily filled elsewhere in the draft.
Any position can be filled at any point in the Draft. This is garbage logic. There's no rule against drafting any position in any round.

Just because people on message boards call it Jones a wasted pick doesn't make it true. Again, whether or not Jones was a waste will be determined in time. Not by simple minded proclamations on a message board.
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Old 06-20-2011, 09:19 PM    (permalink
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I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.
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Old 06-20-2011, 09:26 PM    (permalink
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It's obvious that some of you love draft picks so much that you value quantity and have no consideration for quality. If quantity was all that mattered, the team with the most picks would always get the best return on their Draft. The reality is teams with lots of picks usually end up cutting many of the picked players, because there's not enough room for them all.
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Old 06-20-2011, 09:26 PM    (permalink
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I would. The Titans had 6 starters last year who were 4th RD picks alone - RT David Stewart, LG Leroy Harris, DE William Hayes, MLB Stephen Tulloch, SLB Gerald McRath, and rookie CB Alterraun Verner.

You make that 4th-UDFA players, and that number grows. The draft isn't meant for immediate impact. It's to build for the future and to create depth for longevity. There are some guys who can start from day one, but that's not usually the norm. If you want immediate impact, you get it through FA with veterans that aren't fresh out of college.

Look at some Falcons players taken from the 4th-UDFA: FB Ovie Mughelli (FA signing), DE Lawrence Sidbury Jr., LB Stephen Nicholas, RB Jason Snelling, RB Michael Turner (FA signing), G Harvey Dahl, C Todd McClure, T Tyson Clabo, DE Kroy Biermann, and CB Brent Grimes.

There are some key players here. Some guys need development. Sidbury isn't an impact guy now, but he's a possible building block for the future. Grimes didn't become as good as he is overnight. Plus, depth is key. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl after converting half the training facility into an infirmary. A team disregarding these players because they don't provide "immediate impact" is mortgaging the future for the present, and in a league where turnover happens often and a good team one year may be poor the next, I'm not sure it's wise to take that approach - especially when it's for an unknown commodity.
And look how many 4th-UDFA are out of the league... you just named all the good ones...

Fourth round success rate from 2003-2006

2003: TEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those ten players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2004: SEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those seven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

2005: ELEVEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. About FIVE of those eleven players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick (tough: Kerry Rhodes, Orton, MB3, Sproles).

2006: THIRTEEN players positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them. You could argue they were worth the pick. FOUR of those thirteen players outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

Average of 35 picks in the fourth round each year.

35 x 4 = 140

41 out of 140 players (29.3 %) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 positively contributed for over 2 years for the team that drafted them.

About 17 of 140 players (12%) of 4th round picks from 2003-2006 outplayed their draft position and were important starters for that team and were absolutely worth the pick.

*My stats may be a little off as I did this fairly quickly. Go ahead and add % points if you wish, my point still stands because you'll never get near 50%. The risk/reward dynamic in the fourth round, as I've shown with the stats, makes these picks less valuable than we think (and WANT). Possible a fourth-rounder works out? Yes. Probable. No.

It is logical to assume that trading away a fourth-round pick is trading away a 12% chance of getting a good player and about a 30% chance of getting a contributor.

A chance at Julio Jones-caliber player should not be missed because of well less than a 50/50 shot at finding Seneca Wallace in the fourth round (yes I counted him as a positive contributor).

I'm on your side, Halsey. Draftniks overrate draft picks on a draft site. It makes sense.
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Old 06-20-2011, 09:32 PM    (permalink
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.
Last year the Green Bay Packers were ravaged by injuries but won the Superbowl due to amazing depth.
Oh, so it was all about depth? It had nothing to do with the star players leading the team? Riiiiight...
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Old 06-20-2011, 10:03 PM    (permalink
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Oh, so it was all about depth? It had nothing to do with the star players leading the team? Riiiiight...
Exactly, because my post specifically said "due to amazing depth and nothing to do with star players leading the team".

Of course Rodgers, Matthews, Woodson, Raji, Jennings all were major factors in winning the Superbowl but did Sam Shields not play a big part? Desmond Bishop? James Starks? No, none of them done anything to help the team, right???

I actually think if the Packers had have simply played the superbowl with only first or second rounders on their team they still would have won...you know because of the star players and all.
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Old 06-20-2011, 10:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
And the Titans sucked. Most of those guys are average joes.

Using free agents to support your argument just shows that free agency can be used to address needs that the Draft doesn't.
Seeing as how he is a Titans fan he is probably gonna disagree hard with you calling those guys "average joes" because they're not. All of those guys contributed and Tulloch, McRath, Stewart and Verner all had good seasons. I'm not sure about the other guys. The Titans certainly didn't suck because of those players. They sucked because they didn't have a QB.
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Old 06-20-2011, 10:26 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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I'm not overrating anything. I'm just saying the Falcons didn't make a mistake simply because they gave up 6 picks for 1. If having lots of picks was the end all, be all, the Browns would have been a strong organization in recent years. They picked 24 total players in the 1999 and 2000 Draft. In 2006 they picked 10 players. The 2006 Draft should have been a big part of their team in 2010, yet they where were they. It's not all about having lots of players. Every team can and does fill its roster. It's also about the quality of the roster.
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Old 06-20-2011, 10:31 PM    (permalink
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no, i'm pretty sure he named all the *falcons* players. you know, like he said.







and homers overrate their own players/team moves. it makes sense.

i guess we could turn it around and look at the overall 'success' rate of the #6 pick, and pretend that's meaningful in context, too. julio jones *is* pretty comparable to vernon gholston, after all. i mean, 'after all' if you're going to keep following irrelevant tangents to try to substantiate a severely flawed argument.
Yes. My point is for him to name all of those successful FALCONS 4th-UDFA and then ALSO NAME the unsuccessful FALCONS 4th-UDFA. I'd bet the % looks a lot worse than him just highlighting the few that are good...

Julio Jones is absolutely comparable to Vernon Gholston. Both were highly touted prospects coming out. Jones could bust just like Gholston. But I'm not talking about the value of the 6th overall pick or even Julio Jones as a prospect (fact is, we don't know how he'll perform). That's a different debate. My main point is that a fourth-round pick is simply NOT AS VALUABLE as we think as draftniks and should ABSOLUTELY not be used as proof that the Falcons gave up too much AT THIS POINT (before we know what Julio does as a pro).

The Falcons are being trashed in part because of a fourth round pick. I showed the stats of fourth-round picks having success (which is subjective - that's a flaw you can point to - but my point still stands with one disagreement going your way in every draft) to highlight that the Falcons lost an unknown player who based on my mini-study would have had a 30% chance to have a positive impact for 2 years and a 12% chance to be a very positive contributor to the franchise.

You can call my tangent irrelevant - that's fine. But the sticking point for people has been a fourth-round pick. What I'm trying to prove is that losing a fourth-round pick is not a big deal. Which I think I did pretty convincingly. You did not explain why my argument, a fourth-round pick is not as important as most think, is SEVERELY flawed. Small sample size? Not a bad point. I really don't care that much to go deeper. Subjective? Not a terrible point but you're still never going to get to even 40% (and again, Seneca Wallace's are in that category).
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Old 06-20-2011, 11:50 PM    (permalink
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i remember not too long ago the Browns traded down in the Mark Sanchez situation and got a good not great player in Alex Mack. They may have done the same thing here. Like they couldn't use Julio Jones?

as a general note Julio was way underrated, all draft season. He ran a 4.3 on a broken foot. He made a ton of huge plays at Bama and he run blocks like a beast. For a playoff team like the falcons, extra draft picks aren't gonna make the roster, better off getting a real blue chipper.
Alex Mack is one of the top 10 centers in the league and like what 23 years old?

Pretty sure I would consider him a great player.
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Old 06-21-2011, 12:40 AM    (permalink
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wth are you talking about?
I'm talking about the fact that they picked a total of 24 players in the 1999 and 2000 Drafts. What do you not understand about that?
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Old 06-21-2011, 12:48 AM    (permalink
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I'm talking about the fact that they picked a total of 24 players in the 1999 and 2000 Drafts. What do you not understand about that?
1999: Patrick Kerney, Reggie Kelly, Jeff Paulk, Johndale Carty, Eugene Barker, Eric Thigpen, Todd McClure, Rondel Menendez

2000: Travis Claridge, Mark Simoneau, Michael Thompson, Anthony Midget, Marend Philyaw, Derrick Vaughan

That's 14. Not 24.
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Old 06-21-2011, 12:52 AM    (permalink
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"If having lots of picks was the end all, be all, the Browns would have been a strong organization in recent years. They picked 24 total players in the 1999 and 2000 Draft'"
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Old 06-21-2011, 12:53 AM    (permalink
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"If having lots of picks was the end all, be all, the Browns would have been a strong organization in recent years. They picked 24 total players in the 1999 and 2000 Draft'"
Apologies, didnt read the whole thing
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