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Old 11-26-2011, 04:01 PM    (permalink
onejayhawk
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Default Which Junior QBs Are Coming Out?

I keep hearing that Barkley will go back for another year. RG III can start law school while he plays. Landry Jones is not doing well in this company. Luck could have been first last year.

Who, if any of the top players, will return to college football in 2012?

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Old 11-26-2011, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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I'm thinking Luck, RG3 and either Jones/Wilson will come out, while Barkley and he other QB will stay. If I had to bet I'd say Barkley and Wilson come back to maybe be he #1 pick in 2013.
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Old 11-26-2011, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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As much as I think Barkley would like to stay and enjoy SC... He really needs to go for his own sake. He will be drafted in the top 10 and top 5 imo. I also think RG3 goes pro to take advantage of being a 1st round pick. I think Wilson from Arkansas should stay as well as Tannehill.

Luck-1st overall
Barkley- Top 4 or 5
Griffin - Around 15

If the other two turn pro, I could see them landing 2nd round/early 3rd with Keenum and Moore mixed in.
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Old 11-27-2011, 12:04 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by stl705 View Post
As much as I think Barkley would like to stay and enjoy SC... He really needs to go for his own sake. He will be drafted in the top 10 and top 5 imo. I also think RG3 goes pro to take advantage of being a 1st round pick. I think Wilson from Arkansas should stay as well as Tannehill.

Luck-1st overall
Barkley- Top 4 or 5
Griffin - Around 15

If the other two turn pro, I could see them landing 2nd round/early 3rd with Keenum and Moore mixed in.
Tannehill's a senior so he has no choice.

I think that Barkley and Wilson are both staying while RG3 declares as a top 5 pick.
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Old 11-27-2011, 01:09 AM    (permalink
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If Barkley stays then Jones and Wilson should definitely come out.
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Old 11-27-2011, 01:13 AM    (permalink
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I think Luck and Griffin should definitely declare. With Jones and Barkley, it's hard to say. They could go back to try and go #1 overall, but both should go in the top 10 if they declare this year. Tyler Wilson should probably stay in school.
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Old 11-27-2011, 02:08 AM    (permalink
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Landry Jones is coming out. He's not going to lose even more time to Blake Bell and kill his stock.
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Old 11-27-2011, 02:33 AM    (permalink
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Landry Jones is coming out. He's not going to lose even more time to Blake Bell and kill his stock.
Jones is in a tough spot because his stock probably isn't where he would like it to be, but it's probably not going any higher. If he stays, it's very possible that his stock goes down next year.

In the past few days, I've been thinking that RGIII is more likely to stay than Jones. He can at least enroll in law school, try for the Heisman, and possibly make a push for #1 overall. I'm not sure what Jones has to stay for, unless he just enjoys college.
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Old 11-27-2011, 02:56 AM    (permalink
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Default

right now I'm only thinking Luck, Jones & Griffin

Barkley has a legit shot a NC next year and the Heisman & Wilson will probably be left with a sour taste in his mouth after that beat from Bama(though maybe that's a reason to leave)
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Old 11-27-2011, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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Default

Luck- Has nothing to gain by going back. He declares

Barkley- Can finally go bowling, can win the Heisman, and can be a #1 overall pick in 2013. He stays

Griffin- His stock is as high as it's gonna get in my opinion. He declares

Jones- As someone else said he's in a tough spot: Declare now with a poor stock and good measureables or go back and risk lowing your stock even more or boosting it a little, mainly due to the lack of other QBs available. I say he declares

Wilson- With all of his WRs leaving this year I think he bolts while he can. He declares
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Old 11-27-2011, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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Oops forgot tannehill was a senior... anyway I agree with a lot of what was said but I think barkley is 50 50 and is literally in a perfect positio either way... no doubt hes going #1 next yr with a stacked sc team. I thimk Usc is damn good and it pains me to say it.. honestly I would take them over ok st or ark for 3rd.. shame ncaa is so messed up.

Luck: goes....yada yada

Barkley: no real answer here just whatever he wants to do... i do have a small hunch that he wants to challenge himself and turn pro early... whatever hell have next yr at sc hes already got now so I guess he goes for a change of scenery.
Goes

Griffin: goes, agreed here that his stock is pretty high enough... besides I don't think law school OS the answer when Ur preparing for an nfl draft.

Wilson: stay, could go in 1st rd but his value looks fairly steady and could improve as a qb with another yr.

Jones: I think he goes... I don't see his value getting any higher. I'm not a big fan but he's got the size, good ARM and mobility.
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Old 11-28-2011, 06:20 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by descendency View Post
Landry Jones is coming out. He's not going to lose even more time to Blake Bell and kill his stock.
This season has already done a lot of damage to his stock.

As much as Barkley seems to want to stay, I do not see him turning down a top 10 pick, unless being #1 matters a lot to him.

On the other hand, I think Landry Jones has more to prove, and he is sliding out of the top half of round 1.

RG III is tough. If I understand correctly, he will start law school next semester. With summer sessions, he can finish two full years by training camp 2012. Spring and summer 2013 would get him his JD. That might appeal to him. On the other hand, he wants to get married and have kids. NFl money can make that a lot nicer for his family.

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Old 11-28-2011, 06:37 AM    (permalink
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Default

Steve Young earned his JD during the offseason. If RGIII doesn't declare because he wants to start law school, that's kind of a bizarre reason not to enter the draft.
Since the new CBA was signed, there's no advantage for a QB staying in school to potentially improve his draft stock by a couple of spots.
If a guy is a 3rd rounder who wants to vault himself into the first, then yes you stay.

But if you already have a top 10-15 grade, there isn't a huge pot of gold at the top of the draft anymore.

Teams aren't giving rookies $50+ mil guaranteed anymore for simply being drafted 1/1.
Bradford signed something like a $78 mil contract with $ 50 mil locked.

Cam Newton's entire rookie contract is worth only $22 mil over four years, with an option fifth year worth $14 mil if the Panthers choose to re up.
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Old 11-28-2011, 07:15 AM    (permalink
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I think Jones, Luck, Barkley and RG3 all go pro. The interesting ones are Osweiler and Wilson for me. Wilson could improve a lot or stand to regress with a new WR corps. Will Osweiler stay with an entire new offensive system and coaching staff?
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:42 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Steve Young earned his JD during the offseason. If RGIII doesn't declare because he wants to start law school, that's kind of a bizarre reason not to enter the draft.
Since the new CBA was signed, there's no advantage for a QB staying in school to potentially improve his draft stock by a couple of spots.
If a guy is a 3rd rounder who wants to vault himself into the first, then yes you stay.

But if you already have a top 10-15 grade, there isn't a huge pot of gold at the top of the draft anymore.

Teams aren't giving rookies $50+ mil guaranteed anymore for simply being drafted 1/1.
Bradford signed something like a $78 mil contract with $ 50 mil locked.

Cam Newton's entire rookie contract is worth only $22 mil over four years, with an option fifth year worth $14 mil if the Panthers choose to re up.
Yes, but...

There is still a lot of caché in the high picks, and it matters a lot for the second contract. A second round All Pro will never make as much as a 1st round All Pro, ages being equal. Also, Landry Jones has a shot at being #1 in 2013, whereas I am not sure he has a 1-15 grade now.

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Old 11-28-2011, 08:45 AM    (permalink
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If the other two turn pro, I could see them landing 2nd round/early 3rd with Keenum and Moore mixed in.
Keenum and Moore aren't going to be drafted anywhere near the 2nd or 3rd round.
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Old 11-28-2011, 08:59 AM    (permalink
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Keenum and Moore aren't going to be drafted anywhere near the 2nd or 3rd round.
I think Keenum would surprise you there, possibly both.

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Old 11-28-2011, 09:03 AM    (permalink
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I think we are in a tricky situation with Barkley, Jones and Wilson.
Barkley is riding a hot streak, and personally I feel he should declare, but he probably won't.
Jones IMO stock has plummeted to I wonder if teams even view him as a 1st rounder. Then I remember Gabbert, Locker and Ponder all being picked in the 1st and yes, teams probably do view him as a 1st rounder. He's making too many bad decisions with throws of late, and someone who I think now will be picked middle-late 1st, sit on the bench for a year or two and take over. With that in mind, I do think he should declare, but I have my doubts he will. He might want to prove people wrong and try to lead OU to the title.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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I think Barkely declares. He's a sure fire top 5 pick at this point.

RG III won't get any better for staying at Baylor for antoher year. I think he's a top 15 pick as well and will declare.

Landry Jones and Tyler Wilson will stay. Landry Jones won't be a first round pick. Wilson isn't as good either ,in my opinion and both arent sure fire 1st rounders.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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I think Barkely declares. He's a sure fire top 5 pick at this point.

RG III won't get any better for staying at Baylor for antoher year. I think he's a top 15 pick as well and will declare.

Landry Jones and Tyler Wilson will stay. Landry Jones won't be a first round pick. Wilson isn't as good either ,in my opinion and both arent sure fire 1st rounders.
I'll say it again, if Locker, Ponder and Gabbert all were picked in the top 15 last year, then Jones and Wilson are 1st round QB's.
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Old 11-28-2011, 10:55 AM    (permalink
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I'll say it again, if Locker, Ponder and Gabbert all were picked in the top 15 last year, then Jones and Wilson are 1st round QB's.
Not necessarily there pal. Jamarcus Russell was the top pick in the draft, and Brady Quinn was a first rounder. Clausen never went in the 1st round of the draft.

Last year, teams overdrafted on guys like Locker and Ponder. They were not sure fire top 12 picks. The lockout played a big role on how QB needy teams drafted.

Locker and Ponder were graded out as 2nd round prospects by several analysts. Teams reached.
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Old 11-28-2011, 03:26 PM    (permalink
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Nobody knows yet how the NFL rookie salary scale will impact the draft. We could easily end up with one of the smallest junior classes of all time. Remember, a player is stuck with his rookie contract for 3 years and that makes it imperative that his first year's contract be at least near the top 10 picks of the draft. This could influence many juniors to return to school to upgrade their draft status rather than getting stuck making peanuts for the first 3 years.
QB's, like other positions may not declare so easily and staying in school could become the norm rather than the exception if you can make a lot more money by doing so.
I also think the rookie salary cap could have an ugly ripple effect right down to public schools when fathers are deciding which sport to put their sons into, many more elite athletes may pass up football for baseball, basketball and soccer where the earning potential leaves football in the dust.
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Old 11-29-2011, 02:19 AM    (permalink
Wrathman
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Originally Posted by bucfan12 View Post
Last year, teams overdrafted on guys like Locker and Ponder. They were not sure fire top 12 picks. The lockout played a big role on how QB needy teams drafted.

Locker and Ponder were graded out as 2nd round prospects by several analysts. Teams reached.
As much as it's fun and even useful to have consensus rankings, those rankings are often wrong when looked back upon over time. Looking back two-thirds of a season past the draft to try and identify whether a player has lived up to his draft status is pretty baseless, no? Nobody knows at this point in time who was under-drafted or over-drafted from the 2011 draft class.

Last year's lockout suggested that rookie quarterbacks would be behind the eight-ball more than ever in trying to ready for the season which means that teams should have stayed away from them by that logic. Clearly that was not the case. Perhaps I'm not reading what you mean correctly since you didn't explain your point on that at all. How did the lockout affect quarterback-needy teams in your opinion?

Locker and Ponder were also graded as first-round prospects by other analysts. But more important than where the draft analysts rated anyone is where the team that drafted those players rated them. Not agreeing with the draft analysts doesn't make anyone wrong or right, just different. Whether they were wrong or right is years from being determined in all likelihood.
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Old 11-29-2011, 02:28 AM    (permalink
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Nobody knows yet how the NFL rookie salary scale will impact the draft.
I think one of the things it will do is reduce the number of players who fall in the draft because they don't play an elite position that demands elite money. We've seen QBs and LTs own the top of the draft because those positions could be salary justified in the NFL. With the crazy money eliminated, I think the door has been opened up that if the best player in the draft does not play one of those positions, they now have more potential to go as the overall No. 1 or at least move up higher than they would have been considered prior to the money getting out of hand.
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Old 11-29-2011, 03:59 AM    (permalink
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I think one of the things it will do is reduce the number of players who fall in the draft because they don't play an elite position that demands elite money. We've seen QBs and LTs own the top of the draft because those positions could be salary justified in the NFL. With the crazy money eliminated, I think the door has been opened up that if the best player in the draft does not play one of those positions, they now have more potential to go as the overall No. 1 or at least move up higher than they would have been considered prior to the money getting out of hand.
Draft patterns have held true for a long time even before the big money started going to the top 10 picks. There might be a very short term period where other positions get some considerations, but it always amazes me how quickly patterns return even if the money is less.
It is like a poker game, when I go to Las Vegas, I'll wager a thousand dollars at the Blackjack table but when I go home and play my friends a penny ante game, it isn't long before I take the game just as serious as when I bet in Vegas.
Top GM's know that successful teams are built starting with the QB and filled in around him with top picks from primary positions. That rule of thumb isn't going to change because less money is involved. Good GM's know what works and money was never an issue for them.
So, I think your premise is wrong in this case.
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