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Old 01-05-2012, 06:20 PM    (permalink
Big_Pete
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Default Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois

This guy seems one of the more intriguing prospects who people will have a lot of widely varying opinions about.

He is now listed at 25 on kiper's big board
But I haven't seen him play or heard much about him.

What are people's thoughts on Mercilus as a prospect?
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Old 01-05-2012, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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He's a guy I've also been seeing at the top end of a lot of boards but haven't seen very much of.
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Old 01-05-2012, 06:31 PM    (permalink
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Outstanding production this year at Illinois but idk if his game will translate to the NFL successfully. Not ruling him out as a 1st round pick though, I didn't get to see him play as much as some other prospects.
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Old 01-05-2012, 06:32 PM    (permalink
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On paper, he definitely has both the frame and the skills to rush the passer from either an odd or an even front, and he did have a heck of a lot of sacks this year.

However you always sort of worry about pass rushers who don't show up until their draft eligible years, and he didn't really do anything of note until this year. So you worry if there's a motivation issue, he's slow on the uptake or what. I think the interview at the combine could make or break him as far as "where he's drafted" is concerned.

You take him as a high upside kind of guy, but he's got "boom or bust" written all over him, if you ask me.
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Old 01-05-2012, 06:41 PM    (permalink
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9 forced fumbles this year

I'd rather have him than Coples who didnt show up for his last season
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Old 01-05-2012, 06:49 PM    (permalink
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Relevant: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/s...t-firstrounder

I just don't like those types of DEs because they are a liability at the POA usually.
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Old 01-05-2012, 06:52 PM    (permalink
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He is going to carry the one year wonder tag after surging from 1 sack in 2010 to 14.5 sacks in 2011, but his raw talent and athleticism is hard to ignore. Scouts will have to decide if that kind of production is sustainable at the next level. The Combine will be crucial in his assessment.
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Old 01-05-2012, 07:19 PM    (permalink
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From what I've seen he's very athletic and has a great motor. Those guys I'll gamble on even if their technique is raw and could use a lot of work. But I think the combine will be huge for him, I've only seen his athleticism on tape I'm curious to see his arm length and 10 yard dash.

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Old 01-05-2012, 07:48 PM    (permalink
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Benefited a lot from Illinois' blitz-heavy scheme and aggressive use of their DEs (went upfield on pass rush almost every play). There was a good article by Rob Rang on CBS about him that came out a day or so ago....EDIT: that gnpc posted a link to :D
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Old 01-05-2012, 07:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SchizophrenicBatman View Post
9 forced fumbles this year

I'd rather have him than Coples who didnt show up for his last season
I wouldn't. Much higher upside on Coples, who played to not get hurt with the NFL in mind, and was out of position this past year at weakside DE instead of LDE or DT.....and Coples still had 15 TFLs and 8 sacks this year!
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Old 01-05-2012, 09:57 PM    (permalink
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The scheme friendly system is definitely a small negative.

Whitney has a very explosive first step and is going to be a good NFL player. He's not one of these on/off ends where you are never really sure what you are going to get. He brings it consistently. A safe pick character wise and a coaches wet dream.

I still think his value is just outside the first round, but would be a tad surprised if someone didn't take him in the first round.
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Old 01-06-2012, 12:45 AM    (permalink
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I'd take him in the first any day of the week. Late first round if he makes it that far. That man is an animal. Even on a team stocked at LB like the Steelers...I'd still take him in the first if he fell.
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Old 01-06-2012, 01:13 PM    (permalink
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Rob Rang not liking Mercilus moves him up my board even higher

The guy is wrong more often than McShay
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Old 01-06-2012, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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Mercilus was a complete non-factor in the Badger game and going up against NFL caliber competition is where I like to make my evaluations...he relies heavily on his speed around the edge (which isn't exceptional) and he doesn't use his hands well or have an array of moves
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Old 01-06-2012, 02:08 PM    (permalink
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Mercilus was a complete non-factor in the Badger game and going up against NFL caliber competition is where I like to make my evaluations...he relies heavily on his speed around the edge (which isn't exceptional) and he doesn't use his hands well or have an array of moves
That's correct, he's far from a finished product. But look at that production. If he's getting by and putting up all-star numbers with just an small array of moves, his potential is limitless.

In this year alone he has 22.5 TFL for 123 yards, 16 sacks for 103 yards, and NINE forced fumbles. To me, that's warrants giving the guy a second look.
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Old 01-06-2012, 02:24 PM    (permalink
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Rob Rang not liking Mercilus moves him up my board even higher

The guy is wrong more often than McShay
Rang's credibility >>>>>>>>>> McShay's though. He is actually a legitimate evaluator who knows what he's talking about. Some guys he likes don't work out, but when he says something about a guy that turns out to be right it usually is way before anyone else says it. He and Mayock are two of the better ones out there.
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Old 01-06-2012, 03:17 PM    (permalink
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Rang's credibility >>>>>>>>>> McShay's though. He is actually a legitimate evaluator who knows what he's talking about. Some guys he likes don't work out, but when he says something about a guy that turns out to be right it usually is way before anyone else says it. He and Mayock are two of the better ones out there.
Rang also has great sources. So he's a good read regardless. Sure he's wrong about a lot of guys, but so is everybody in this business (including professional scouts.)
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Old 01-07-2012, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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He's a second-round pick. Maybe, MAYBE someone trades up into the high second because they love his potential. But I don't believe the first-round hype. The smart teams will ignore the production playing like that on a snap-to-snap basis. The forced fumbles are impressive but who gets drafted in the 1st solely because of one stat? That's pretty much most of what he's got going for him right now, and I think if he holds his own at the combine he's a top-50, not top-32, player. And he needs a few years.
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Old 01-07-2012, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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22.5 TFLs/16 sacks. Hardly would say the 9 FFs is the only impressive stat.
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Old 01-07-2012, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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He's a second-round pick. Maybe, MAYBE someone trades up into the high second because they love his potential. But I don't believe the first-round hype.
Second round picks and late first rounders are pretty much the same talent tier. The guy picked 32nd and the guy picked 33rd are separated by about 18 hours and not much else.

So if you think a guy is potentially a high second round pick, one of the first round teams picking in the 30s could easily select him. There's not this huge (non-temporal) gulf between the rounds.
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Old 01-07-2012, 02:57 PM    (permalink
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Second round picks and late first rounders are pretty much the same talent tier. The guy picked 32nd and the guy picked 33rd are separated by about 18 hours and not much else.

So if you think a guy is potentially a high second round pick, one of the first round teams picking in the 30s could easily select him. There's not this huge (non-temporal) gulf between the rounds.
I'm talking more in terms of grade than where he'll actually end up going - I should've said second-round prospect, not pick. Yes, plenty of early-mid second round prospects are taken from 25-32 and Mercilus could be one of those guys if a team fears he won't be there for them later in round 2. I just think what he's put on tape in his career warrants second-round consideration and any further hype to this point is seemingly unfounded.

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Old 01-07-2012, 03:03 PM    (permalink
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Mercilus initially made a very favorable impression this season but seems to have a lot of trouble shedding blocks and lacks a repertoire of pass rush moves. He may not be athletic enough to drop into coverage as a linebacker in a 3-4 defense and should go some time in the second round.
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Old 01-08-2012, 03:06 AM    (permalink
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A lot of the plays were just sheer effort plays, and not him beating the OT. Michael Buchanan looked more explosive at times too.
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Damn Ke$ha is sexy.
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Old 01-08-2012, 03:26 AM    (permalink
ellsy82
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Originally Posted by DBNYDP View Post
22.5 TFLs/16 sacks. Hardly would say the 9 FFs is the only impressive stat.
Exactly. I understand the whole "potential" crowd. But the guy is a beast on the football field and does so with as many would say "a limited arsenal". Imagine what he'd do with some proper coaching. This is ludicrous. He got a good grade from the NDAB for a reason. He's a good pass rusher. Reminds me of a shorter Dumervil. In fact, reminds me of James Harrison.
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Old 01-08-2012, 05:08 AM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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A shorter Dumervil??

Elvis is 5'11.
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