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Old 01-25-2012, 03:55 AM    (permalink
stlouisfan37
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I'm glad I found this thread. As a Rams fan, I have been wanting to discuss the possibility of trading down and adding some pieces, as we have a lot of needs. After reading a lot here, I would like to add my own $.02.

Mike Holmgren is a borderline egomaniac. I live in Seattle and saw how he built the Seahawks. He was actually stripped of his GM duties because it was overwhelming him. I do think he can build a good team, but he will require a lot of time and it will be dependent on whether or not ownership has enough patience.

Holmgren actually inherited a pretty talented offensive team in Seattle. The big holes were on defense. However, Holmgren admittedly knows little about defense. So rather than beefing up the defense to be competitive now, he completely dismantled the offense and started over with his own guys. Holmgren would rather lose with his own guys than with with a team that someone else assembled. Which, I guess, would make Cleveland the perfect spot for him.

There has been a lot of talk here about signing players through free agency, especially Matt Flynn. First and foremost, if the Matt Flynn we saw in the season finale is who he really is as a player, then Joe Philbin knows it and it would seem a foregone conclusion that he would follow him to Miami. No offense to Browns fans; personally I would prefer to live in the birthplace of pro football, but to most players around the league South Florida is a much more desirable place to play.

Cleveland is in an Easter basket that someone conveniently crapped in, along with a handful of other teams - St. Louis, Arizona, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Washington, Minnesota - that no one really wants to play for. There are some very nice places among these teams, but they all have one thing in common: they lack direction and are consistently changing coaches and systems. Arizona had the Super Bowl a few years back and seems to be working its way out. Detroit seems to be out for now, but it remains to be seen whether or not they are for real for good. In any case, if you have your choice between a contender and a wanna-be, you are going to choose the contender every time. These teams will not attract great free agents until the team shows it can win, unless said team overpays up the kazoo. (See Washington). It's a double edged sword; we need the players to become legitimate, but we can't get the players until we are legitimate, because no one believes that we are really going to be serious this time, and probably rightly so.

Another thing to consider is that the Browns' WCO is more traditional than most and is becoming obsolete in the eyes of many. There was a time when no one could defend it, but now it is old hat. It is not dynamic or exciting, although it can still be effective. Still, who really wants to go be a part of that? If I'm a big time FA receiver like Vincent Jackson or Desean Jackson it doesn't excite me a whole bunch.

I think that Browns fans are totally underestimating the amount of interest that there will be in RGIII, and if I am correct, then the cost of such a trade goes up significantly. Washington will almost certainly be a big player, as Mike Shanahan's job depends on him doing SOMETHING NOW. Kansas City has a lot of talent and a very mediocre QB. Seattle and Arizona both need QB's, although a trade within the division seems unlikely. If Flynn were to go to one of those two teams then Miami becomes a player. I would be surprised if the trade goes down for much less than a pair of 1's and another early round pick. I'm not saying that it is worth that on the value chart; but when the bidding war is on, it's on. I think one thing that has been lost on RGIII is that he very well could be the Michael Vick that everyone had HOPED he would become...the dynamic playmaker with a cannon arm who can kill you with accuracy and destroy you on the ground. While he is a completely different player than Luck, this guy is almost certainly stirring the imaginations of many an offensive coordinator.
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Old 01-25-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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Tom Heckert does the drafting in Cleveland. It's Holmgren's organization as he hired the coach, hired the GM, decided that they would run a 4-3 and a west coast offense like he had in Seattle and Green Bay, and he has some pull in bringing in guys like Colt McCoy and Seneca Wallace...but the draft picks have been on Heckert. Mostly been used on defense the first two years they've been there with Joe Haden, TJ Ward, Phil Taylor, and Jabaal Sheard being the top picks. Both Holmgren and Heckert have built winning organizations. Holmgren is using his philsophy, Heckert is using his talent at acquiring personnel, I think that combination can work if they get the players, which will take time.

The thing about the Browns offense being simple isn't just that they installed it in a shortened offseason with players who were young and didn't know it, but also with a first year head coach that doubled as playcaller on a team with no talent offensively. I think once the Browns get some top tier talent on offense and hire an offensive coordinator (which they are doing this offseason) then they'll be headed in the right direction and they will be in position to sign free agents.


As far as RGIII goes, it certainly seems like he will be the #2 pick in the draft. The price will probably be hefty if there is a bidding war between the Browns and Redskins (assuming Flynn signs with Miami). It will be a matter of who wants the kid more and who will be more willing to surrender future young players for a young QB.
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Old 01-25-2012, 11:46 AM    (permalink
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As far as RGIII goes, it certainly seems like he will be the #2 pick in the draft. The price will probably be hefty if there is a bidding war between the Browns and Redskins (assuming Flynn signs with Miami). It will be a matter of who wants the kid more and who will be more willing to surrender future young players for a young QB.
I don't think the cost will be prohibitive for Cleveland in a trade down with St.Louis or Minny, those teams want to stay in the top 5 when they draft, which limits trading partners, and Cleveland can offer them that while Washington, Miami and other teams cannot.
The real question remains, does Holmgren believe in drafting QB's in round 1 or does he prefer to bring in a veteran or trade for one. Holmgren's past suggest the possibility of a trade to get a new QB. He saw it work in Green Bay when they acquired Favre and in Seattle when he acquired Hasselbech.
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Old 01-25-2012, 12:15 PM    (permalink
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Holmgren tried to trade up for Sam Bradford two years ago. I don't think it will be a problem. He knows how valuable a QB is and that it is very hard to find one outside of the draft. He was lucky enough to find young QBs he liked in trades.

The Browns are in a better spot to trade up if they want to (only 2 spots down for St.Louis in the draft order, they have higher picks in each round plus the #22 overall pick), but if Washington wants Griffin as badly as some people think they do, then I think they might give up 2 firsts plus a second and maybe a 3rd/4th - which is a ransom for moving up just a few spots. I don't think the Browns would be willing to trade that much. The most I would think is an extra first and maybe some change. I don't see the Browns being as willing to sell the farm for RGIII as the Redskins will be. Washington is in desperate, win-now mode while the Browns are in full blow rebuild mode and are hell bent on doing so with draft picks.
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Old 01-25-2012, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Holmgren tried to trade up for Sam Bradford two years ago. I don't think it will be a problem. He knows how valuable a QB is and that it is very hard to find one outside of the draft. He was lucky enough to find young QBs he liked in trades.

The Browns are in a better spot to trade up if they want to (only 2 spots down for St.Louis in the draft order, they have higher picks in each round plus the #22 overall pick), but if Washington wants Griffin as badly as some people think they do, then I think they might give up 2 firsts plus a second and maybe a 3rd/4th - which is a ransom for moving up just a few spots. I don't think the Browns would be willing to trade that much. The most I would think is an extra first and maybe some change. I don't see the Browns being as willing to sell the farm for RGIII as the Redskins will be. Washington is in desperate, win-now mode while the Browns are in full blow rebuild mode and are hell bent on doing so with draft picks.
I'm not so sure we aren't in a desperate move mode as well. Say what you want but 2 more 4-6 win seasons and I doubt Lerner sticks with his current management team.

Lerner isn't know for his patience and the Cleveland fans are getting restless, another couple of losing seasons, and I doubt we will continue to see a sold out stadium. There is a limit even for the most loyal and ardent fans.

This team needs a potential hero to reinvigorate the fan's moral and nothing works faster than a rookie QB who is drafted high.

It is my experience that if a rebuilding mode hasn't shown significant success after 3 years, it never will, this is Holmgren's 2nd draft and you have to expect at least 2 seasons before a rookie QB gets the job done, so if he wants real improvement in 3 years, he absolutely has to get the QB now. We are never going to have the ammunition available to us in this draft again, so IMO, it is now or never for this management team.
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Old 01-25-2012, 02:11 PM    (permalink
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I don't disagree, but the undertones of Heckert and Holmgren and Shurmur in their press conferences sure doesn't make it sound like they are very giddy about the idea of trading a bunch of draft picks for a QB. I could be wrong, b/c they wanted to do exactly that for Sam Bradford, but I just get the sense that there is a limit on the ammount of picks they would give up to move up 2 spots. I do believe that they are going to aggressively pursue a young franchise QB this year though without a doubt.
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Old 01-27-2012, 01:14 AM    (permalink
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There's a few key differences:

1. Andrew Luck (in the opinion of many) is one of the best QB prospects to enter the draft in 20 years. He is safer and more NFL ready than RGIII.
2. The Colts aren't giving up extra picks to move up and draft Luck.
3. You conveniently left out their best weapon, Dallas Clark. Dallas Clark >>>> all Browns WRs/TEs
4. By the estimation of nearly every Cleveland media outlet, Hillis (our "best" playmaker) is as good as gone. The Colts still have Addai (although I don't care for him) and a promising back in Delone Carter.
5. Garcon is pretty decent, although he tends to drop too many balls. At this point in their careers, he's much more established than Greg Little.

Is that enough? I'm tired of this discussion. Let me say it again, I'm fine if we draft RGIII at #4. He's a great talent that could be a great NFL QB someday. However, in my opinion, giving up the #22 pick to move up and get him would be a mistake as the offense has no playmakers to support his development. Situation + Talent = Success. Right now, the situation is ****. That's my opinion on the matter. Please stop making this into, "OMG, FtE hates Griffin. Doesn't he know that you need a QB to win?"
As stated, Garcon is a Free Agent and Dallas Clark? Really? It's not 2008 and the system is going to change there in Indy. They are going to be a Run first, 3-4 Defense Team under Pagano. They have scrubs at RB's and a TERRIBLE Offensive Line...that is probably losing Jeff Saturday.

So you wouldn't want to bring RG3 or Luck HERE, but you're fine with the Colts taking Luck and adding him to their abortion of a Roster. A roster that we beat rather easily and was Lucky to winm even 1 game. That makes ZERO sense.

Would you take Luck here? Do you still feel the Team has to be built before the QB and pass on him?

The truth must be that you don't consider RG3 to be a Franchise QB. It is not an understatement to say that EVERY SINGLE Nfl Scout and GM believes that when you have a chance to take a Franchise QB...you take him, regardless how the rest of your roster looks.

So which is it? Do you think RG3 is a Franchise guy or not?
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Old 01-27-2012, 01:46 AM    (permalink
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I'm probably in the minority here, but as of now I'm going to predict the Rams stay at #2 and draft Matt Kalil, and it will be the Vikings who trade out of the third spot with a team that desperately wants RG3.
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Old 01-27-2012, 06:46 AM    (permalink
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I'm probably in the minority here, but as of now I'm going to predict the Rams stay at #2 and draft Matt Kalil, and it will be the Vikings who trade out of the third spot with a team that desperately wants RG3.
I could see it, the Rams need to do something to keep Bradford from getting killed.
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Old 01-27-2012, 09:11 AM    (permalink
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I could see it, the Rams need to do something to keep Bradford from getting killed.
Getting a receiver who can get open would let Bradford get rid of the ball faster and that would keep him alive longer to...
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Old 01-27-2012, 11:53 AM    (permalink
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I'm probably in the minority here, but as of now I'm going to predict the Rams stay at #2 and draft Matt Kalil, and it will be the Vikings who trade out of the third spot with a team that desperately wants RG3.
Well we may be in the minority but our ranks are growing. I, too, am also leaning this way.

I think that with Fish as our HC it is going to take a sterling offer for him to want to trade out of the 2nd overall pick.

It really depends on how much better Kalil grades out compared to guys like Reiff and Adams, but if he does grade signifcantly higher then I believe the Rams will stay put.
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Old 01-27-2012, 12:02 PM    (permalink
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I'm probably in the minority here, but as of now I'm going to predict the Rams stay at #2 and draft Matt Kalil, and it will be the Vikings who trade out of the third spot with a team that desperately wants RG3.
As a Seahawks fan, I hope this happens. This would mean the Vikings would put #3 up for sale, and Seattle would have a shot. If the Rams dangle the pick, they'd likely shy away from sending RG3 to Seattle...

I just don't see how the Rams could stay put if they know teams are willing to offer a lot to move up (which you've got to assume they are). The Rams can go down to four or six and still get a LT or Blackmon.

There are only two scenarios in which they stay put...

1) They really like Kalil (or Reiff) over the other possibilities they'd take at 4, 6, 8, etc.

2) No one offers anything worth it to move down (except maybe Seattle) and they stay at 2 (this scenario may also have to do with a feeling that Minny would take their guy - Kalil, Rieff, or Blackmon - if they were to move down).

So I think it's unlikely that the Vikings deal the pick but the Rams don't. I hope I'm wrong though...
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Old 01-27-2012, 01:17 PM    (permalink
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I'm probably in the minority here, but as of now I'm going to predict the Rams stay at #2 and draft Matt Kalil, and it will be the Vikings who trade out of the third spot with a team that desperately wants RG3.
And the Vikings have already made it clear they are willing to listen to offers for the 3rd pick.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...for-no-3-pick/

GM Rick Spielman said Wednesday on NFL Network. “If someone wants to come up and get our pick, we’re going to be more than willing to listen.”
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