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Old 01-31-2012, 11:12 AM    (permalink
bitonti
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Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
The tough thing is not only that Weeden is older, but how much his arm has been used. It's not like this guy was sitting around on a couch, resting his body. He pitched over 374 innings in 5 seasons, and that doesn't even factor how much Weeden was using it in just training and such.

Depending on the Combine, I think a team like the Jets could really use him in the 2nd.
+1 arm use is a factor also the fact he never took a snap under center at Okla State. Probably a late 3rd. cusp of top 100 is this player's value. Others will value him more highly, that is wishful thinking.

oh and the Jets aren't gonna draft a Qb. they will sign Chad Henne and go with Sanchez/Henne/McElroy
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Old 01-31-2012, 11:13 AM    (permalink
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Weeden's getting hyped because of his age.
Probably just the opposite. I think his age will really hurt him. By comparison he's probably somewhere in that Chris Winke category so he could get into the 4th or so, but i wouldnt take him.
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Old 01-31-2012, 01:13 PM    (permalink
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Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?
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Old 01-31-2012, 01:16 PM    (permalink
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Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?
I don't disagree with you but the counterargument seems to be that anyone who says things like that is simply biased against his age.

Even if he were 23, the 3rd round is all the higher he should go.
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Old 01-31-2012, 01:20 PM    (permalink
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Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?
Agree with you and BB that the age is just a sidebar to the fact he's an average prospect at best. I'd take him over a TJ Yates coming out but he shouldnt be any more than a late round pick.
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Old 01-31-2012, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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I don't disagree with you but the counterargument seems to be that anyone who says things like that is simply biased against his age.

Even if he were 23, the 3rd round is all the higher he should go.
Exactly....I'm totally biased against his age as far as 3rd-4th round vs. UDFA. But IMO, he projects as a backup at best anyway. I don't see how anyone can envision him as an above average starting QB at any point.
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Old 01-31-2012, 02:22 PM    (permalink
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Honestly, he'll be lucky to get drafted.
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:06 PM    (permalink
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I predict late first round. His age is barely a blip on the radar. If a franchise can get 3-4 years out of him, that is huge.

At the worst early to mid second
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:30 PM    (permalink
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I predict late first round. His age is barely a blip on the radar. If a franchise can get 3-4 years out of him, that is huge.

At the worst early to mid second
At any other position besides RB? Sure, I wouldn't mind drafting a 28 year old in the first. Maybe CB too. But if you draft a QB in the first, you're doing it with the intention that he's your franchise guy, AKA a long term starter. Like a decade to fifteen years. Weeden can't really do that. Four good starting years about of a linebacker or DE or offensive lineman is fine. No one will complain about that. But the QB is different. And it's unlikely he's going to be ready to just jump in right away and be effective, he probably won't hit his prime until, at the very least, year 2. When he's 30. And even though I don't believe in the "pro style" offense in college, he's not coming from anything even closely resembling it. I'd definitely draft Weeden, based on what I've heard/read about him(didn't get to watch him at all), because I think he'll be a decent NFLer. But in the mid-rounds. Somewhere where any productivity at all is a pleasant surprise.

Also I'm not sure that his pitching career is even an issue, at all. Sure, he threw just under 400 innings in 5 years, but that wouldn't even be a blip on the radar if he was looking for a baseball contract, let alone an NFL one that puts far, far less stress on the arm than pitching does.
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:47 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a Brandon Weeden fan. I don't like when 25-30 year old guys are out there with 18 year old ones. I will always remember how good I thought Weinke was until I realized he was 30 before he was drafted.
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Old 01-31-2012, 09:49 PM    (permalink
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Also I'm not sure that his pitching career is even an issue, at all. Sure, he threw just under 400 innings in 5 years, but that wouldn't even be a blip on the radar if he was looking for a baseball contract, let alone an NFL one that puts far, far less stress on the arm than pitching does.
He threw out his arm. He can no longer pitch a baseball without pain. It supposedly doesn't affect his football throwing motion but combine that with his age and the fact that he's simply not a good prospect, why even take the chance?
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Old 01-31-2012, 10:18 PM    (permalink
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There are very very few 1st round QB's that can be the face of the franchise for 10-15 years. Especially late 1st.

Too much is being made of the Weinke comparison. Most drafted QB's do not pan out in the first place. It is extremely difficult for even good college QBs to become an above average NFL QB. I think Weeden has a better than 50/50 chance of making it for a few years. That's worth a late first.
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Old 02-01-2012, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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If he was a better QB, his age shouldn't be a factor. I'd rather have a talented player for 6-10 years than take a less talented player that could possibly play for 15 years.

But I agree that he doesn't necessarily have the talent to warrant anything before the 3rd or 4th.
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Old 02-01-2012, 03:34 AM    (permalink
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There are very very few 1st round QB's that can be the face of the franchise for 10-15 years. Especially late 1st.

Too much is being made of the Weinke comparison. Most drafted QB's do not pan out in the first place. It is extremely difficult for even good college QBs to become an above average NFL QB. I think Weeden has a better than 50/50 chance of making it for a few years. That's worth a late first.
I would rather take a Guy in the Late 1ST that slipped for what every reason and get a player that has a better than 50/50 Shot of being good for at least 5 Years and is also 20/21 Years Old.
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Old 02-01-2012, 09:40 AM    (permalink
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He threw out his arm. He can no longer pitch a baseball without pain. It supposedly doesn't affect his football throwing motion but combine that with his age and the fact that he's simply not a good prospect, why even take the chance?
OHHH, okay, that definitely makes sense. I just thought he wasn't happy with where his pitching career was taking him and wanted to try football. Then yeah, that's quite the red flag. If he gets his arm tangled with a DE's, that could end badly.

Guess I'm glad my team already has a QBotF and therefore won't be tempted ;)
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Old 02-01-2012, 09:53 AM    (permalink
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There are very very few 1st round QB's that can be the face of the franchise for 10-15 years. Especially late 1st.

Too much is being made of the Weinke comparison. Most drafted QB's do not pan out in the first place. It is extremely difficult for even good college QBs to become an above average NFL QB. I think Weeden has a better than 50/50 chance of making it for a few years. That's worth a late first.
I know there are very few, but that's still gotta be what you're looking for. Turnover at every other position is pretty high, and having a guy play for 10-15 years in one spot is rare, and teams are usually willing to let them walk as they get older and the team falls out of contention. At QB though, I can only think of 2 Franchise QBs that were let go by their original teams. And one of them was let go because he was terrible for long enough that his team felt the need to start over with a new one, and then he had a catastrophic shoulder injury. The other one had an idiot for a new coach who tried to acquire a wildly inferior QB to be his starter. Those are Brees and Cutler.

I think when you talk about a QB and "a few years," you're really just talking about a stop-gap. And teams look to stop-gap solutions when they're at the point where they aren't good enough to be true contenders, but not bad enough to get an actual good prospect. And when you're talking about that being his upside? I don't see the point in drafting him. You might as well trade that pick(or more likely, even way less than that) for some veteran backup, that you hope can start for a few years until you have someone better. Or sign Matt Flynn, who is younger and has a much better chance of being successful right away(and in the long term) than Weeden does.

I understand what you're saying about tempered expectations for a late 1st round pick, but I just think that a QB is different. Any time you take a QB in the first, or even second round, you're not hoping that you need to address that position again in 3-4, or 5 years. You're hoping you can address it when he's 35 after a long, illustrious career for your team.
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Old 02-01-2012, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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Guess I'm glad my team already has a QBotF and therefore won't be tempted ;)

Don't count your chickens...
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Old 02-01-2012, 09:56 AM    (permalink
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Don't count your chickens...
He was just being an ass because of my Tebow dislike.

It's alright though, I threw him out of the Jay Cutler fan club as a result.
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Old 02-01-2012, 11:06 AM    (permalink
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He was just being an ass because of my Tebow dislike.

It's alright though, I threw him out of the Jay Cutler fan club as a result.
WTF? WHEN DID THIS HAPPEN??

Also even if I was totally confident that Tebow is the without a doubt QBotF, I still cheer for the team that traded a 25-year old Pro Bowler who finished 2nd in the NFL in passing yards... so I really shouldn't count chickens, even after they've hatched into pro bowlers.
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Old 02-01-2012, 11:59 AM    (permalink
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I predict late first round. His age is barely a blip on the radar. If a franchise can get 3-4 years out of him, that is huge.

At the worst early to mid second
This.

To be taken in the 1st round, a trade is necessary. However, if a QB needy team trades back to the mid 20s, he be gone. Trading up to the late 20s is also possible.

For the "a few years" argument, think of what teams have paid for marginal starters of this age. Unless it is a dump situation, a solid career backup will bring a 2nd round pick. That is his floor IMO.

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Old 02-01-2012, 02:36 PM    (permalink
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Say hello to 2012's John Beck, the last guy who impressed against competition up to ten years younger than him. Weeden is getting overhyped; he's a 28 year-old man who was running up scores against teenagers with the top receiving option in the draft.
Completely agree. The guy is just a more seasoned athlete, he understands how to prepare on a level that these teenagers do not. However, that's what wins in the NFL as well. For me as a Falcons fan, I could see him in the 4th round as a legit option (if we had a 4th round pick) because I think he'll make a fantastic backup. I think he's got enough seasoning, that he'd be able to step in for an injured QB for a few weeks and everything wouldn't just flounder.

If Ryan went down, I'd love to have this guy back there as his backup, get him in there to try and carry us on until we can get Ryan healthy. I think the age thing is going to crush him in terms of being draftable. I mean these picks are precious to these teams, and if you're trying to find a gem in the draft, generally you're looking for someone to develop, not someone who's reached their athletic prime.
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Old 02-03-2012, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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One NFL scout says age concerns about Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden's are a "joke" because he is ready to play in the NFL at age 28.
"The age thing to me is a big joke because he’s ready to play. He’s mature," said the scout.
"He has all the physical attributes. There are no character issues. He has it all." If Weeden is as pro-ready as the scout described, he won't make it out of the first two rounds. Weeden could be an interesting selection for Denver in the second round. The Broncos refuse to tailor their long-term offense to Tim Tebow, and Weeden is essentially the prototype at 6'4" with a big, accurate arm.
Source: Washington Examiner
Feb 3 - 12:51 PM

I agree with this anonymous scout's stance on his age not being a factor at all.

I just can't figure out if I like him that much as a prospect otherwise. I was just never all that impressed. Very curious, need to watch more.
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Old 02-03-2012, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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Question for those that say late third - what exactly does the team think they're gaining with such a pick? A relatively short term backup with no NFL experience? How is that worth a third round pick? Wouldn't you prefer a guy with a similar skill set in his early twenties with a chance to improve?
He plays QB...if he's a strong backup/spot starter for a decade are you REALLY wasting a 3rd round pick?

As far as maturity and intelligence goes he's behind only Luck in this class IMO. Dude is going to be a very strong interview during the combine, probably amongst the best at any position in this class.
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Old 02-03-2012, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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I would be willing to blow a 3rd round pick on a high upside backup QB. QBs drive this league. Use the first two rounds for your starters, and 3rd round is decent enough value to start addressing your major need areas.
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Old 02-03-2012, 04:25 PM    (permalink
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One NFL scout says age concerns about Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden's are a "joke" because he is ready to play in the NFL at age 28.
"The age thing to me is a big joke because hes ready to play. Hes mature," said the scout.
"He has all the physical attributes. There are no character issues. He has it all." If Weeden is as pro-ready as the scout described, he won't make it out of the first two rounds. Weeden could be an interesting selection for Denver in the second round. The Broncos refuse to tailor their long-term offense to Tim Tebow, and Weeden is essentially the prototype at 6'4" with a big, accurate arm.
Source: Washington Examiner
Feb 3 - 12:51 PM

I agree with this anonymous scout's stance on his age not being a factor at all.

I just can't figure out if I like him that much as a prospect otherwise. I was just never all that impressed. Very curious, need to watch more.
I don't think it's a factor at all.

In fact, when you consider that he was drafted into MLB baseball right out of HS, you might figure that it's actually kind of a plus. He's an adult and understands the demands of being a professional athlete (relatively).

I dunno, if you grade his tape high enough and think you can plug him in rather quickly and get a good 5 years out of him, I see no reason why you don't select him in the 1st (or any later than round 2).
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