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Old 03-15-2012, 08:45 AM    (permalink
RWills
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Default FA's Boosting Draft Stocks

We are all aware the overvalue in the draft for starting QB's, pass rushing DE's, cover corners.

But I believe because of FA this year we will see 2 more position that will be overdrafted......WR & S

You saw how many safeties have been franchised, its hard to find a 3 down consistent S these days because the position is changing from a punishing hitter to a third corner. The market is bare this year and I can see Barron go top 17 and Harrison Smith will be at the end of round 1 as well. Other safeties that can go higher than expected is Antonio Allen, Charles Mitchell, Brandon Taylor, Iloka, Markelle Martin and Janzen Jackson will all get picked before the end of day 2

WR market has gone insane, with the league becoming more pass friendly you get guys like Garcon making 8.5 mil per year....Teams will rather reach for Floyd, Wright, Randale and Hill maybe all within the first 25 picks. I can see Floyd go as high as 7 or 8 now.

people agree with this?
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Old 03-15-2012, 08:54 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by RWills View Post
We are all aware the overvalue in the draft for starting QB's, pass rushing DE's, cover corners.

But I believe because of FA this year we will see 2 more position that will be overdrafted......WR & S

You saw how many safeties have been franchised, its hard to find a 3 down consistent S these days because the position is changing from a punishing hitter to a third corner. The market is bare this year and I can see Barron go top 17 and Harrison Smith will be at the end of round 1 as well. Other safeties that can go higher than expected is Antonio Allen, Charles Mitchell, Brandon Taylor, Iloka, Markelle Martin and Janzen Jackson will all get picked before the end of day 2

WR market has gone insane, with the league becoming more pass friendly you get guys like Garcon making 8.5 mil per year....Teams will rather reach for Floyd, Wright, Randale and Hill maybe all within the first 25 picks. I can see Floyd go as high as 7 or 8 now.

people agree with this?
I think you are spot on. WR is a really overvalued position with the league's rule changes. Looking back a year from now it will be interesting to see which of these WR FA signings worked and which fizzled.

Also agree with Safety becoming a more important position especially with tight ends having such a great impact in the passing game. Having a bigger safety that can run with TEs/WRs really helps in this passing crazy league.

ILBs and RBs are fairly devalued in today's NFL. Teams want to spread out defenses leaving more nickel/dime type coverages on the field.
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Old 03-15-2012, 08:59 AM    (permalink
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I wouldn't really say ILBs are devalued, look at the deals Lawrence Timmons, David Harris, Jerod Mayo, etc. got. I believe all were in the $50m range. Paul Posluszny got something like 6-$42. If anything I'd say they're overvalued.
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Old 03-15-2012, 09:25 AM    (permalink
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I wouldn't really say ILBs are devalued, look at the deals Lawrence Timmons, David Harris, Jerod Mayo, etc. got. I believe all were in the $50m range. Paul Posluszny got something like 6-$42. If anything I'd say they're overvalued.
Because they are 3-down MLB's

guys like Lofton and Spikes will have dry markets because they are 2 down MLB's
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:04 AM    (permalink
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compare the 2013 safety class to the 2012.

2012
mark barron
harrison smith
george Illoka
markelle martin
brandon taylor

2013
bacarri rambo
tj mcdonald
robert lester
ray ray armstrong
tony jefferson

***

teams are not going to reach for Barron when they can just wait a year and get a crack at a class with 5 prospects all probably better than Barron.
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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[quote=RWills;2904628 I can see Floyd go as high as 7 or 8 now.
[/QUOTE]

Gosh I dont think so. First off The Jags aren't gonna take Floyd. That goes against everything Gene Smith stands for. He wants tough gritty football players.

Michael Floyd is an amazing athlete. He's a terrible football player. He's always either hurt or arrested. In the bowl game he got punched in the gut and basically benched himself. There's something not right about Michael Floyd. I don't think he's tough enough for the NFL. or reliable enough to go in the top 10. late first is where I'd take him. anything before that is a reach.
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
compare the 2013 safety class to the 2012.

2012
mark barron
harrison smith
george Illoka
markelle martin
brandon taylor

2013
bacarri rambo
tj mcdonald
robert lester
ray ray armstrong
tony jefferson

***

teams are not going to reach for Barron when they can just wait a year and get a crack at a class with 5 prospects all probably better than Barron.
Yeah I would like to see someone say that in the war room, you can't project for next year like that because you might not have a shot at one guy, or another guy looks terrible....Who knows about Ray Ray, he is still living off of his High Rating, takes bad angles and is not quick
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7. TE - Clive Walford - Miami
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
compare the 2013 safety class to the 2012.

2012
mark barron
harrison smith
george Illoka
markelle martin
brandon taylor

2013
bacarri rambo
tj mcdonald
robert lester
ray ray armstrong
tony jefferson

***

teams are not going to reach for Barron when they can just wait a year and get a crack at a class with 5 prospects all probably better than Barron.
Most of those guys had a shot to come out this year, but none of them would have gone before Barron. I don't really think any of them can force a safety needy team to wait a year for them. They're nowhere near Berry or Griffin in terms of prospects.
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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LOL. Really confused OP states that safeties are turning into 3rd corners and thus it boosts Barron's stock?

That's his negative. He great at attacking downhill like a traditional SS but struggles to turn his head and track the ball (like a centerfielding FS). I'd actually argue that because of the "dual safeties" mantra a lot of teams carry as well as the need of a lot of teams for a "centerfielder" that Barron's stock does the opposite... drops.

I never liked him as a top 15 prospect anyhow and think the end of the first-early second is a much better evaluation of his talent.
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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I don't know if you draft a day 3 safety in the 2nd/3rd round just for need - some teams might I guess, but teams who like value will refuse.

Looking at the prospects in the OP, I can really only see Iloka (on the back of his Senior Bowl week), Martin as a downhill type and perhaps Antonio Allen who plays faster than he timed at the Combine going in the first 3 rounds.

Charles Mitchell and Brandon Taylor are big hitters, but I don't see them as guys who can hold up in man coverage.

Janzen Jackson might be the wild card. Five star recruit at Tennessee - has more natural ability than about anyone else in this safety class. However, I wouldn't be comfortable taking him that high due to his off the field issues. He also didn't start right away at McNeese State - I believe it was late October - so might not have the highest Wonderlic score.
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Old 03-15-2012, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
compare the 2013 safety class to the 2012.

2012
mark barron
harrison smith
george Illoka
markelle martin
brandon taylor

2013
bacarri rambo
tj mcdonald
robert lester
ray ray armstrong
tony jefferson

***

teams are not going to reach for Barron when they can just wait a year and get a crack at a class with 5 prospects all probably better than Barron.
You need to drop Ray Ray Armstrong from your list. Terrible football player. Cute name. Now add Kenny Vaccaro from Texas and you have a 1st round pick in 2013.
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Old 03-15-2012, 11:10 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by duesouth View Post
I don't know if you draft a day 3 safety in the 2nd/3rd round just for need - some teams might I guess, but teams who like value will refuse.

Looking at the prospects in the OP, I can really only see Iloka (on the back of his Senior Bowl week), Martin as a downhill type and perhaps Antonio Allen who plays faster than he timed at the Combine going in the first 3 rounds.

Charles Mitchell and Brandon Taylor are big hitters, but I don't see them as guys who can hold up in man coverage.

Janzen Jackson might be the wild card. Five star recruit at Tennessee - has more natural ability than about anyone else in this safety class. However, I wouldn't be comfortable taking him that high due to his off the field issues. He also didn't start right away at McNeese State - I believe it was late October - so might not have the highest Wonderlic score.
I agree on Taylor, his triangle #'s are horrible, but I will disagree on Mitchell, he is a player to watch.

Im not big on Markelle Martin but Allen can play both safety spots and the slot, I can see him go round 2.

Iloka did look good in the Senior Bowl, but gave teams to pause at the combine.

Im suprised nobody is talking up Trenton Robinson/Justin Bethel or converting slow corners to safety ala......Trumaine Johnson/Alfonzo Denard/Casey Hayward/Josh Norman/DeQuan Menzie...These guys could be real good safeties
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Old 03-15-2012, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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You need to drop Ray Ray Armstrong from your list. Terrible football player. Cute name. Now add Kenny Vaccaro from Texas and you have a 1st round pick in 2013.
fair enough. My point is the 5th or 6th best safety in 2013 is comparable or better to the best safety in 2012.
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Old 03-15-2012, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
compare the 2013 safety class to the 2012.

2012
mark barron
harrison smith
george Illoka
markelle martin
brandon taylor

2013
bacarri rambo
tj mcdonald
robert lester
ray ray armstrong
tony jefferson

***

teams are not going to reach for Barron when they can just wait a year and get a crack at a class with 5 prospects all probably better than Barron.
One thing I've learned in the draft, is teams never look at next years draft to determine this years. In addition, guys projected 1st round this year could have disappointing years and fall greatly.
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Old 03-15-2012, 02:18 PM    (permalink
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I'm super pumped for next year's safety class on that note. Hopefully the Vikings can solidify our line and corner position so we can get a premium safety.
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Old 03-15-2012, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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I fully agree that this year's Safety crop is terrible with only 2 1/2 round talents. Some no doubt will get picked a bit higher because of desperation but I still believe the rush may come in round 3.

I also agree that teams don't wait a year to solve a problem position, most HC live in the now and ask for help immediately. It takes a pretty solid GM to resist the temptation and say no to his HC and wait a year , but some will.
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Old 03-16-2012, 03:16 AM    (permalink
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One thing I've learned in the draft, is teams never look at next years draft to determine this years. In addition, guys projected 1st round this year could have disappointing years and fall greatly.
This is not true at all. Mark Dominik has flat out stated that the Buccaneers traded up to grab Luke Stocker last year because he thought the TE field this year was a lot weaker.
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Old 03-16-2012, 11:28 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
compare the 2013 safety class to the 2012.

2012
mark barron
harrison smith
george Illoka
markelle martin
brandon taylor

2013
bacarri rambo
tj mcdonald
robert lester
ray ray armstrong
tony jefferson

***

teams are not going to reach for Barron when they can just wait a year and get a crack at a class with 5 prospects all probably better than Barron.
A) That's not how the draft works.

B) Maybe one of those guys is as good as Barron, and it's not Lester who I also like.

If a team likes him he's someone who could easily go in the first. Probably in the 20's , but still in the first.
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Old 03-16-2012, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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Old 03-17-2012, 04:16 AM    (permalink
Lil Quip
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I think the thought process on receivers is spot on. The Megatron deal set a new standard and bumped up the money for secondary guys. With the rookie deals now normalized a bit, picking a receiver earlier than usual may be risky but with a decent hit, a team is getting a player much lower pay grade then like free agents. A guy like Floyd might go say five picks earlier than 'normal' but if you get say Pierre Garcon production at an extremely reduced price. One signature of highly successful teams is getting great production at a reduced price with good draft picks.

Safety is somewhat of a whole other animal. Where wide receiver is being platooned by increased importance, there is enough talent level in the NFL to mitigate it. The problem with safety is that there is just a low amount of talent at the position. Not sure why, it just seems that safeties coming out of college are better built for the strong side of things. Although nothing new, moving slower bigger corners that could get away with it are the free safeties of the future. I can see a guy like Dre Fitzpatrick being a good target for this, somewhat like happened to Malcom Jenkins. As the NFL spread becomes more prevalent, there are is a good talent level of smaller quicker corners that have no business being safeties.
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Old 03-18-2012, 10:50 AM    (permalink
bucfan12
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
Gosh I dont think so. First off The Jags aren't gonna take Floyd. That goes against everything Gene Smith stands for. He wants tough gritty football players.

.
He drafted Blaine Gabbert, a "Tough, gritty" football player. he's so tough, he runs away and dodges pressure that isn't there. He's like a little B*tch back there in the pocket.
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Old 03-18-2012, 10:54 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
A) That's not how the draft works.

B) Maybe one of those guys is as good as Barron, and it's not Lester who I also like.

If a team likes him he's someone who could easily go in the first. Probably in the 20's , but still in the first.
Only the smart GMs know that's how the draft works. GMs won't reach for a position of need if the class doesn't have the value in that position. They'll take a safety, but at the right value.

I'll give you an example. Tampa needs a MLB more than a CB and RB right now. They stated their desire to move Foster to the WILL, which he's best and played there 3 years at Washington before moving to MLB his Sr. Year.

Will they pass up Claiborne or Richardson just to take a need like Keuchly, who shouldn't be drafted until the mid -teens of round 1? No.
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