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Old 03-19-2012, 11:56 PM    (permalink
Inspector71
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This is a pet-peeve of mine. If we're talking about 40 times, there is no sane or rational reason to trust a 50 year old man with a stopwatch more than you would trust a media intern with access to proprietary combine footage and a computer.
It really doesn't matter what you would trust. The FACT is that NFl Teams go by the 40 times of their Scouts. The "Official times" are for Television.

Mayock and Charley Casserly both had Kendall Wright in the low 4.4's. Whichj is EXACTLY how fast he looks on film.

And you guys crack me up with the Weeden love. It isn't happening. I will be SHOCKEd if he's drafted before the 3rd round. Besides his age, there are SERIOUS issues with him as a player.

There is A LOT OF Derek Anderson to his game.
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Old 03-21-2012, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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I'm holding on to it till he shows me at his pro day that it was an aberration, otherwise he be a sinking ship on draft day.
Just like at the combine and on all the tape anyone cares to see, Kendall Wright runs a sub-4.5 40 at his pro day.
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Old 03-21-2012, 11:15 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns went with Kirk Cousins on Friday. Cousins is good enough to play right away, he protects the ball well and can make the short/ intermediate throws well enough to play in that offense. While he doesn't have the same upside as Tannehill or Weeden, he is still good enough to start as a rookie.
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Old 03-21-2012, 11:27 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns went with Kirk Cousins on Friday. Cousins is good enough to play right away, he protects the ball well and can make the short/ intermediate throws well enough to play in that offense. While he doesn't have the same upside as Tannehill or Weeden, he is still good enough to start as a rookie.
So, another Colt McCoy.
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....ask Brandon Weeden.
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Old 03-22-2012, 01:27 AM    (permalink
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Just like at the combine and on all the tape anyone cares to see, Kendall Wright runs a sub-4.5 40 at his pro day.
Yeah, and Baylor's RB also took 2/10's off his combine time which equates to a super fast track and squarely pegs Kendall Wright as a 4.61 40 guy and certainly not a round 1 prospect..
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Old 03-22-2012, 06:53 AM    (permalink
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It really doesn't matter what you would trust. The FACT is that NFl Teams go by the 40 times of their Scouts. The "Official times" are for Television.

Mayock and Charley Casserly both had Kendall Wright in the low 4.4's. Whichj is EXACTLY how fast he looks on film.
I'm just saying, it's pretty cut-and-dry to figure out exactly how fast he ran at the combine or in any workout that's recorded on tape. The "official" numbers might be wrong (weren't all of the nfl.com and NFLN numbers off by something like five inches in the VJ a few years back?), but teams can pretty easily have their media intern determine exactly how fast players ran at the combine, and the well run teams probably do. Stopwatches aren't some magic revealer of truth. They're error-prone devices operated by middle-aged men.

Mayock, Casserly, and others probably clocked Wright in the low 4.4's because his game speed is faster than 4.6, so they subconsciously stop the watch 2/10ths of a second faster than they would for a guy who's game speed is slower, but who's track speed is the same. They expect that he's fast, based on film study. Which is fine and dandy. This is a case where their biases actually give us insight into what these guys are like as players.

I'm not a huge fan of the 40 yard dash, anyway. It was first devised by Paul Brown, because 40 yards was about how far players had to run downfield during punts. It wasn't meant to be used to quantify the speed of OL, QBs, DTs, or even CBs and WRs. At most positions, there are far more relevant drills.
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Old 03-22-2012, 07:50 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, and Baylor's RB also took 2/10's off his combine time which equates to a super fast track and squarely pegs Kendall Wright as a 4.61 40 guy and certainly not a round 1 prospect..
RB Gananway ran a 4.63 at the combine and a 4.6 at Baylor's pro day.
Kendall Wright ran two times at the combine, one was sub 4.5 and the other was 4.6+. His 4.4s at Baylor match his play this season.

I don't how you can say Kendall Wright has mediocre speed when he routinely blew the top off Big 12 secondaries, so much so that at one point late in the season critics argued RGIII's spectacular season was the result of playing on the same team as the fastest WR in the Big 12.
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Old 03-22-2012, 09:49 AM    (permalink
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Besides the fact that Claiborne only ran a 4.50 which is hardly elite speed for a CB, the Browns have no offense, none, hence that has to be the focus of their draft.
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Yeah, and Baylor's RB also took 2/10's off his combine time which equates to a super fast track and squarely pegs Kendall Wright as a 4.61 40 guy and certainly not a round 1 prospect..
From Bill Freaking Walsh himself :


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Every year coaches, scouts and personnel departments from each National Football League team gather at Indianapolis for a pre-draft ritual, of sorts.

They watch the top collegiate draft prospects go through a series of tests. Among other things, the players run 40 yards, jump straight up, jump straight out, run specified patterns, throw, catch and even take a test to measure their intelligence.

Scouts diligently record these marks for posterity. Players are often linked with their Indy results for the rest of their careers.

I believe the astute evaluator must perceive these marks not as final answers, but rather as guidelines that may be used only as a reference.

A player's speed in the 40 doesn't really tell you how fast he is in a game. His vertical jump may only reveal he is out of shape. And even the intelligence test may have little to do with innate instincts that make him a virtual genius on the field.

Still, there is value in this process, if you know how to utilize the results.

The key thing to remember is that functionality is the most important evaluation of a player's ability to perform. No matter how fast he runs, how high he jumps or how well he scores on a test, his value can only be related to how functional he is on the field. And that is often something that cannot be precisely measured anyplace except on the practice field or, in some cases, in a game situation.

Many people may be surprised to find out that the most important test is not one that has a precise mark, but rather one that is evaluated with a great deal of subjectivity.

That test is the personal interview. It seems ironic that, after going through all these intricate procedures, we often reach our final judgment on a player based on a good, old fashioned face to face discussion.
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This is considered the universal measurable. It is the obvious measuring stick and the utility tool that everyone uses. When you refer to an athlete you typically refer to his 40-yard dash time. So often the conditions can make a difference in the times. Jerry Rice timed in 4.59 and was considered to have marginal speed for a starting NFL wide receiver by virtually everyone in the NFL. There were three or four teams -- including the Jets and the Cowboys along with the 49ers -- who rated him very highly. Other than that, I'm not sure anybody did, simply because of a 4.59 time.

So in a sense it is a crutch for an evaluator and it has been a crutch for scouts for many years because that's the one measurable that everyone acknowledges.

But the problem with the 40 is the game of football requires functional speed, not pure track speed. So functional speed is related to playing the game and responses to another moving object. Jerry Rice's functional speed is probably the very best in the history of football. But if you timed him in the 40, he would be over 4.5

Each year we hear about 4.1s, 4.2s, 4.3s and yet often these men are out of football in a year or two. So it's a universal utility measuring stick. At either extreme it is a viable measuring tool. A 4.4 is a viable tool because you know he is very fast. A 5.4 means that the man is very, very immobile. But a lot of the times that fit into the general mainstream can be deceiving.

If a person is looking for a 40 time out of an offensive lineman, they have to calibrate in a different way. What is good is to see how smoothly they run and what kind of body control and mechanics they have as they run 40 yards. But as far as the time itself, you can be deceived and confused because it is counterproductive in many ways.

We need to run the 40, but we must remind ourselves when we are talking about less than a tenth of a second in differentials, we are talking about the conditions of the track and how much training the athlete has with a track start. When you look at the 40s of 15 or 20 years ago, the times are slow. A big part was they were not on an ideal surface. They just ran if anybody asked them, on any length of grass or any form of field. They had not practiced the start. They would get into their football stance and start. And they had not rehearsed this as if they were preparing to run indoor sprints.

So in some ways the times get better and better, but they are less and less reliable in terms of functional playing speed.
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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From Bill Freaking Walsh himself :
Nobody who understands the draft process says any aspect of the Combine tests is the be all and end all of scouting a prospect. What the Combine does, is give each scout, GM and HC a framework about the physical abilities of a player. You then take this information back to the film room to see how each prospect uses his god given talents, and a final decision is reached.

However, each scout, GM and HC who do college scouting for their teams know what times in the 40 equate to a star or average deep threat, they have judged literally thousands of prospects and seen that success is extremely high among the better physical players and drops off considerably among the less talented prospects.

It doesn't mean you cannot play in the NFL because there are other attributes that go into making a pro football player. If we look at a WR, it may be his excellent route running, superb hands, jumping ability and quickness, however, they prefer to find these talents with a guy they know is fast rather than draft a slow guy and hope he can compensate for his slow 40. A slow 40 is always going to take you down the draft boards if you play a position where speed is important.

Believe me, Bill Walsh was a serious scout, he was well aware of every aspect of a player's skills before he drafted them, once he was satisfied that they passed the eye test as athletes, the interview became a deciding factor although that wouldn't necessarily work today when athletes now practice with tutors how to answer questions put to them in the interview process.

What is telling about the 40 time, is that every GM, scout and HC individually times each prospect when they run it. People who argue that the 40 time is worthless, simply aren't watching NFL Network to see how football people think. It indicates clearly that it is a major deciding point in where a player is drafted if his film work also shows he has real football skills, a 40 time without football skills won't get you drafted very high if at all.


People who think a 40 time isn't important need to watch how ALL the scouts and former GM's on NFL Network talk, to a man they all place a huge importance on speed and hence 40 times.
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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Nobody who understands the draft process says any aspect of the Combine tests is the be all and end all of scouting a prospect. What the Combine does, is give each scout, GM and HC a framework about the physical abilities of a player. You then take this information back to the film room to see how each prospect uses his god given talents, and a final decision is reached.

However, each scout, GM and HC who do college scouting for their teams know what times in the 40 equate to a star or average deep threat, they have judged literally thousands of prospects and seen that success is extremely high among the better physical players and drops off considerably among the less talented prospects.

It doesn't mean you cannot play in the NFL because there are other attributes that go into making a pro football player. If we look at a WR, it may be his excellent route running, superb hands, jumping ability and quickness, however, they prefer to find these talents with a guy they know is fast rather than draft a slow guy and hope he can compensate for his slow 40. A slow 40 is always going to take you down the draft boards if you play a position where speed is important.

Believe me, Bill Walsh was a serious scout, he was well aware of every aspect of a player's skills before he drafted them, once he was satisfied that they passed the eye test as athletes, the interview became a deciding factor although that wouldn't necessarily work today when athletes now practice with tutors how to answer questions put to them in the interview process.

What is telling about the 40 time, is that every GM, scout and HC individually times each prospect when they run it. People who argue that the 40 time is worthless, simply aren't watching NFL Network to see how football people think. It indicates clearly that it is a major deciding point in where a player is drafted if his film work also shows he has real football skills, a 40 time without football skills won't get you drafted very high if at all.


People who think a 40 time isn't important need to watch how ALL the scouts and former GM's on NFL Network talk, to a man they all place a huge importance on speed and hence 40 times.
You missed the point Bill Walsh makes above. Like totally.
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Old 03-22-2012, 12:27 PM    (permalink
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Any chance the Browns trade #4 to the Rams for #6. In this scenario Rams snag their playmaker in Blackmon and Browns can draft Tannehill at #6, which looks better than 4
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Old 03-22-2012, 12:44 PM    (permalink
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Any chance the Browns trade #4 to the Rams for #6. In this scenario Rams snag their playmaker in Blackmon and Browns can draft Tannehill at #6, which looks better than 4
Or they can try and flip 4 with Jacksonville at 7.
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:33 PM    (permalink
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You missed the point Bill Walsh makes above. Like totally.
Props for Walsh's quote. Sorry it didn't get through.
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