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Old 03-23-2012, 07:03 PM    (permalink
toonsterwu
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I still believe that Griffin III is an elite prospect in most drafts, and I still believe that Luck is the top prospect in this draft, but there is no doubt, IMO, that

a) RG3 throws a better deep ball
b) RG3 has a better arm
c) RG3 has more upside.

The question for me is whether or not RG3's upside trumps the preparation and development that Luck has had. To me, Luck's upside is elite enough to compensate, and thus I think he is better.

I will challenge some notions, though.

a) Luck doesn't have average arm strength - his pure arm strength is clearly above average, and he can easily heave a ball 50 yards without torque, and it can go further when he puts his body into it. The issue is

i) Cosell does note some mechanical flaws, and I certainly don't have the time to study.
ii) I've always had the feeling that he tries to "touch" pass the deep ball when the deep ball isn't the first read.

b) He has more than enough velocity on the hard intermediate passes outside the numbers.

Because he ran such a complex offense AND because he had such freedom at the line of scrimmage, I think he checked out of a lot of throws that most QB's in college would've chucked. As a result, there's a lingering feeling that he has poor or average arm strength. It certainly isn't an elite arm, but reading the Pennington/Rattay comparisons is just ... off, IMO.
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:06 PM    (permalink
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Griffin has a stronger arm. He just has more rpms and his deep ball is great. I can't give an edge either way in terms of accuracy, but check out real well. Griffins arm strength is top notch but I'm not sure I put it in the Stafford level. I'd put it at put it right below Newtons.

I agree with some of the posters above that in a year no one is gonna care or notice Lucks arm strength. Luck's only flaw right now is that he doesn't have an elite arm. His arm checks out and it will get stronger with NFL work outs and some a little tweak to his mechanics. Having elite arm strength is not a requirement to being an elite NFL QB.


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Originally Posted by toonsterwu View Post
ii) I've always had the feeling that he tries to "touch" pass the deep ball when the deep ball isn't the first read.
He does do this on deep throws. He tries to land it deep instead of just gunning it. It's not that he doesn't have the strength, but kinda chooses to do it. He needs to mentally adjust this part of his game.
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Old 03-23-2012, 09:54 PM    (permalink
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Luck's motion isn't as "pretty" as Griffin's, but that's ok. It won't limit him. I see Luck as similar to Steve Young. Young had a funky motion too, and they both don't keep that off-arm high. Check out how similar their final college year stats were:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...ew-luck-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...e-young-1.html
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Old 03-23-2012, 11:07 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by toonsterwu View Post
Because he ran such a complex offense AND because he had such freedom at the line of scrimmage, I think he checked out of a lot of throws that most QB's in college would've chucked. As a result, there's a lingering feeling that he has poor or average arm strength. It certainly isn't an elite arm, but reading the Pennington/Rattay comparisons is just ... off, IMO.
This is an very interesting take I hadn't really thought of before. I will say that he has grown on me tenfold from this time last year. However, the main "issue" I've had with him is his general is his lack of aggressiveness with his decision making. I couldn't decide if it was a physical, system or mental limitation. I no longer believe it's physical. But you bring up a very good point in that perhaps it's a mental thing that affects system because he has so much control at the line. Maybe it's hard to call it a 'limitation' per say but there really weren't many times in a given game where he really saw him just let it fly with mid-deep range throws.

I'm not sure if it's a knock because of the amount of success he and his team had...but everything seemed like it needed to be very controlled for/by Luck. We saw that from the play calling, to the reads, to the adjustments at the line and even to the way he threw the ball (which is why I think it often came out, as DG put it, 'floaty'.) I'm not slapping a 'Captain Checkdown' label on him by no means but all the elite QB's in this league and even the guys in the next tier (Stafford, Cutler, Cam?, Rivers?) all aggressively challenge defenses in the mid-deep range of the field. Hopefully that comes along with time as he gains more confidence in his arm and in his receivers and hopefully the coaches don't 'coddle' him allowing him only to do just what he's comfortable with. For that reason, for all the talk of wanting to see RG3 operate under center, at the same time I actually would have liked to see Luck operate out of a more spread out passing attack from time to time.

It's an idea that's hard to grab something tangible and it's hard to knock him too much for that because of how efficient and effective that offense was. However, for him to become a real challenge for NFL defenses and become that player people expect him to be, he's going to have to legitimately challenge teams on all three levels and in all 5 sectors of the field horizontally.
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Old 03-24-2012, 12:47 AM    (permalink
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This is somewhat a tangent to Tackle's comments, but if there is one concern I have about Luck, and it's awfully tiny, but I think, for a college QB, he's ... too smart. The USC game this year, they moved the ball fairly well, but I distinctly recall several plays where I felt like Monte Kiffin baited him (particularly the late pick, where Monte showed blitz, Luck went hot, but Monte, iirc, had the backer go on a short zone which I don't think Luck was prepared for ... a "dumber" guy might've just hiked the ball, forcing the defense to move for that split-second).

Tackle, there's not much that I really disagree with. I think his understanding of hi-low, 1-5 is as good as I've ever seen out of a college QB in the past decade. Perhaps, perhaps it's too good that, as you note, he passes up some throws because they are unwise (really ... I wish people would take a moment for a second and think about this - we're criticizing a guy because he, at times, won't try for some dumb passes, passes that if they work, look awesome, but if not, you question the QB's intelligence). As an aside, he'll often make line adjustments (I also think it's fairly understated how difficult it is for a young QB to make line calls ... heck, there are many starters in the NFL that can't do it without chucking some mistakes in). But (and admittedly, I saw more of him last year than this year), I have no concerns about his

a) ability to understand and read hi-low, 1-5, overall schemes
b) physical capability to make the throws

_______

One thing that I think hasn't been discussed that much is this - Luck really didn't have that much skill talent around him relative to windows. Fleener has been his most talented receiver, and while he's a mismatch, I'm not sure enough credit is given to Luck for the touch he had on some of the seam routes to Fleener. There were times when he was wide open, but he's often hitting Fleener in-stride on a tough seam-intermediate route - not the easiest thing to do and not the easiest window.

Besides Fleener? He's had Baldwin, Owusu, Whalen, three guys who, talent wise, are intriguing, but not exceptional. I mean, Whalen was his top target (passing yardage) this past year and he's probably a UDFA.

Actually, and I didn't think about this until now, and someone who saw Luck more this year could probably assess this, but I wonder if Luck didn't go Tom Brady on the offense, taking advantage of the skills that his receivers were good at (quickness in the open-field).

_____

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Old 03-24-2012, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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Toonster.. sent you a PM man.
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Old 03-24-2012, 05:45 AM    (permalink
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TACKLE nailed it for me, it that I wonder just a bit about Luck's 'aggression' when it comes to throwing the football. In the pros Luck is going to have to take more calculated, higher risk throws to maximize the potential of his offense.

Every pass play isn't going to be set up perfectly by the playcall/audible/read after the snap.

All the great QBs IMO have the ability to play 'smart' AND improvise in the passing game which makes it nearly impossible for all but the most dominant defenses to slow them down.

Sometimes I feel like riffing once in a while or taking big risks isn't in Luck's DNA.

Like others have said, it's not as if Luck hasn't been wildly successful playing the way he has at Stanford,( his stats in 2011 were virtually identical to RGIII's, despite their schemes being nothing alike), but I do have questions whether or not Luck is going to need to adjust his in-game mental approach to quarterbacking once he gets to the NFL.

It's probably not a serious problem, I've seen Luck get after it when leading Stanford on late game comebacks when he has to be more aggressive.

Maybe it's an issue of knowing he's playing with marginal skill position talent at WR and his adjusting to their skillsets.

Or maybe Luck's overall game is just way over this fan's head.lol
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Old 03-24-2012, 07:51 PM    (permalink
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Greg Cosell has offered his two cents.

Here's his full essay:

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/03/23/c...t-always-luck/

And here is PFT's summary:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...asser-to-luck/
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Old 03-24-2012, 08:55 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by mightytitan9 View Post
In terms of arm strength Griffin has the better arm no question.

I think he clearly has the better accuracy on passes over 15 yards as well.

If you drafted purely on arm, Griffin would be the number one pick. Then again, Ryan Mallett would have been the number one pick last year lol
Purely for arm strength, you take Tannehill, RG III, Weeden then Luck. There is not anything like Staffords cannon in this draft, but Tannehill is next level.

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Old 03-24-2012, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by WCH View Post
Greg Cosell has offered his two cents.

Here's his full essay:

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/03/23/c...t-always-luck/

And here is PFT's summary:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...asser-to-luck/
so very much agree with this. people didnt like the chad pennington comparision. hehehehehehhe
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Old 03-25-2012, 09:59 AM    (permalink
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As an aside, I wish that Cosell had time to publish his own draft guide. He's rapidly moved ahead of Kiper, Mayock, Scott, Russ Lande, and Ourlads on the list of people who's opinions I give a damn about.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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As an aside, I wish that Cosell had time to publish his own draft guide. He's rapidly moved ahead of Kiper, Mayock, Scott, Russ Lande, and Ourlads on the list of people who's opinions I give a damn about.
Is there a QB this year that Russ Lande doesn't like?
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:57 AM    (permalink
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Is there a QB this year that Russ Lande doesn't like?
He was a lot better his first few years, before he hooked up with Sporting News. Even when he was blatantly wrong, he was at least ballsy in his rankings, and his scouting reports were second-to-none. The past few years, it seems like he's been selling out.

Also, I liked Ourlads a lot more before they changed ownership several years ago. I still subscribe, but it's not like it used to be.

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