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Old 03-25-2012, 10:40 AM    (permalink
bengalbuck
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Default Early Run on WR's?

When looking at team needs in this year's draft, the position that really stands out to me is WR. There are a ton of WR needy teams. Especially in the late 1st and early 2nd round area.

Looking at just the teams with multiple picks in the late 1st-early 2nd, you have Cincinnati, Cleveland, St. Louis and possibly New England with WR needs and a lot picks.

You also have teams like Jacksonville, Miami, Buffalo, San Francisco, Arizona, NY Jets, Houston, Minnesota, Carolina, Indianapolis, etc. that are all probably looking for upgrades at the position.

And even teams like Baltimore, Seattle, Philadelphia, San Diego, Chicago, Tennessee, Denver and the NY Giants, who don't necessarily have huge needs at the position, could me in the market if they happen to like a specific guy's talent.

In short, we could see an early run on WRs in the draft just like we did in free agency. And when you look at the contracts that mediocre guys like Laurent Robinson, Robert Meachem, Pierre Garcon, etc. all got in FA, you can't even say that it'll be a reach when some of these WRs go earlier than projected. It's simply a case of demand exceeding supply making these guys have actual high value.

Even though it does look like a pretty deep class, those consensus top 10 guys are probably going to fly off the board quicker than expected and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up seeing 10 WRs go in the top 40 or so picks.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:43 AM    (permalink
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10 wrs in the top 40 picks is way to much, I do see a lot of receivers going in the second & third round though
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:48 AM    (permalink
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I agree with you. Think there are going to be a lot to go early. However, don't think this is that great of a WR class (someone feel free to correct me). I do think that Michael Floyd is going to go higher than currently projected. Think he could be a top 10 pick, maybe Jacksonville.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:49 AM    (permalink
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I think 4 will go in the 1st round.
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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I think there will be a long run of WRs starting after Floyd gets selected. I think Blackmon goes top 6 regardless. Floyd could go 7 to the Jags, but I think Stephen Hill, Reuban Randle, Alshon Jeffery, and Kendall Wright could all come off the board between picks 15-32
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:51 AM    (permalink
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I think there will be a long run of WRs starting after Floyd gets selected. I think Blackmon goes top 6 regardless. Floyd could go 7 to the Jags, but I think Stephen Hill, Reuban Randle, Alshon Jeffery, and Kendall Wright could all come off the board between picks 15-32
Randle and Jeffery would be reaches so im not sure that would happen. 6 in the top 40 would make sense though.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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Randle and Jeffery would be reaches so im not sure that would happen. 6 in the top 40 would make sense though.
True. But teams fall all over combine stats and Randle was very productive with horrid QB play at LSU. Jeffery has talent, but work ethic is a huge question. If he dominates his own pro day, he'll probably be in the 1st round conversation as well.

But I agree, it's more realistic 6 in the top 40 than in the first 32.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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I doubt that 10 go in the top 40; but I could see Stephen Hill going higher than most people expect, and that could trigger a run on WRs.

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Old 03-25-2012, 11:05 AM    (permalink
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I think there's probably 6 1-2nd round WR's in this draft class. After the first three in the 1st round, teams will be taking reaches. That's not to say it won't happen. If the need is present, teams will reach. The only guy that I might see as a surprise 7th WR in rounds 1-2, might be Tommy Streeter.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:26 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Randle and Jeffery would be reaches so im not sure that would happen. 6 in the top 40 would make sense though.
Of those 4 listed Randle and Jeffery are the reaches?
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:27 AM    (permalink
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Not replying to anyone in particular here, but when you are talking about whether a guy is a "reach" or not, you have to take into account positional value and supply vs. demand.

Free agency pretty clearly showed that there is way more demand than there is supply of talented WRs.

You may see only 6 WRs that you feel have top 2 round value. But in my opinion, that is under an outdated view of positional value. You have to look at WR value in the context of an NFL that just paid Laurent Robinson 5 years, $32.50 million.

You also have to compare that Laurent Robinson contract (and VJax, Garcon, Meachem, Morgan, Royal, etc.) to the surprisingly small contracts that we are seeing LBs, RBs, etc. get.

I am of the belief that we will see WRs really get pushed up draft boards as every team wants to lock up at least 3 very good ones and RBs, LBs and Safeties pushed down boards. If my team has needs at RB, LB and WR, it can sign a very good LB and RB at bargain prices but can't find a reasonably priced WR. Thus it has to address WR in the draft and can't afford to risk missing out.

For an example of this, look at my team, the Bengals. Got BJGE for $3 million per year at RB. Got Reggie Nelson for $4.5 at FS. Got Jason Allen at $4 at CB. Got Travelle Wharton for $3.5 at OG. Had a glaring need at WR #2 and couldn't even sniff a reasonably priced option. I'm convinced team is going to take one at 17 or 21 even if its a guy considered a "reach" according to some of the rankings out there. Because if they don't "reach" they are going to be left with crappy options at #53 because a ton of teams ahead of them have the same need and a decent chunk of them are going to end up "reaching" in the top 50.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:29 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Of those 4 listed Randle and Jeffery are the reaches?
Yes. I dont think either of them should be taken in the first round.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:30 AM    (permalink
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There are a lot of good round 2 and 3 WRs this year, so I expect a lot of good WRs to go in the 2nd and 3rd.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:32 AM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asteinebach View Post
I think there's probably 6 1-2nd round WR's in this draft class. After the first three in the 1st round, teams will be taking reaches. That's not to say it won't happen. If the need is present, teams will reach. The only guy that I might see as a surprise 7th WR in rounds 1-2, might be Tommy Streeter.
In my opinion, we'll see at least 5 guys in the 1st (Blackmon, Floyd, Wright, Randle and Hill).

We'll also see guys like Brian Quick, Alshon Jeffery, Mohammed Sanu and possibly a couple surprises (McNutt? Streeter? Toon? Adams?) go off the board by the mid-2nd.

If Laurent Robinson is worth over $6 million per year and more than twice as much as any RB on the market and more than any LB on the market, then Brian Quick is a mid-2nd round value.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:34 AM    (permalink
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2009 Draft all over again. Rams or Browns take one in the top 10(maybe they both do), Dolphins or Bills take one, Houston takes one, and at least 1 wild card team takes one. Round 2 the Vikings take one.

5-6 in top 40(Blackmon, Floyd, Wright, Hill, Randle, Sanu)
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:38 AM    (permalink
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this is the deepest I can recall a position being in a long, long time. So many good talents that could be gone by the mid 2nd round.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:43 AM    (permalink
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this is the deepest I can recall a position being in a long, long time. So many good talents that could be gone by the mid 2nd round.
09 was the same at the WR position it just doesn't seem it now because some of them busted. Crabs, DHB, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt. It was deep.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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I love this WR class, there should be quality number 2 receivers into the third round. McNutt, Broyles, Jenkins I think will all be guys who are regular contributors at the next level.
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Old 03-25-2012, 08:50 PM    (permalink
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I definitely see the Bengals taking a WR in Rd 1 also. If Floyd were to fall to them at 17, I think he would be the pick, if he's not there, then I think we'lkl take the best of what is there at 21.
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Old 03-25-2012, 09:46 PM    (permalink
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IMO there's six Receivers that are worthy of a top 40 selection.

Blackmon, Floyd, Wright, Jeffery, Hill, Hilton
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Old 03-25-2012, 10:17 PM    (permalink
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We could very well see the top 2 or 3 safeties all going higher than they should with gm's not expecting much talent that doesn't need a lot of development to be on the board very far into day 2.

The opposite could hold true for the receivers with gm's thinking there are a lot of them to go around with very few being described as must have, but many looking like they could develop into something around their third season.

It does happen that some teams tend to panic a bit and some weird runs happen that cause guys to guy a round or more higher than they should just because of fear. This is a boon to the guys that build teams with an bpa approach when they end up with talented guys sitting on the board that should be gone.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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I'd feel comfortable with Blackmon and Wright in the first round, and probably willing to gamble on Stephen Hill towards the end of the round. Michael Floyd would heavily depend on interviews although based purely on talent he's one of the ten or twelve best players in the draft. Rueben Randle could go late in the first as well. I'd be surprised if someone drafted Alshon Jeffery in the first.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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I'd feel comfortable with Blackmon and Wright in the first round, and probably willing to gamble on Stephen Hill towards the end of the round. Michael Floyd would heavily depend on interviews although based purely on talent he's one of the ten or twelve best players in the draft. Rueben Randle could go late in the first as well. I'd be surprised if someone drafted Alshon Jeffery in the first.
I wouldn't, he's the most talented Wide Receiver in this class.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:21 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't, he's the most talented Wide Receiver in this class.
I love fat slow receivers too.
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Old 03-25-2012, 11:47 PM    (permalink
holt_bruce81
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I love fat slow receivers too.
I didn't know 6'4 216 was considered fat.......

And slow? is that why he constantly beat SEC defenses all throughout his career at South Carolina? He's not going to be the fastest guy on your team but he'll run in the 4.5s
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