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Old 04-20-2012, 01:57 AM    (permalink
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Default NFL Draft 2012 Offensive Rankings (By Position).. Feedback Wanted! :-)

hey guys (posting for a friend of mine) I'd like your feedback on his 'rankings by position' NFL Draft 2012 preview. I agree with a lot of it, but I honestly didn't follow college football like I did 2 years ago went I went to Florida.

Thank you in advance. Positive or negative, we'd like your opinion.

NFL Draft 2012 Rankings (by position)

This is Good Looking Loser’s official NFL Draft offensive player rankings by position.

It seems like I dislike A LOT of prospects. While that isn’t exactly true, I follow a strict criteria that requires picks in round 1 and round 2 to be: very productive in college, the potential for more, good work ethic, a good football IQ and the immediate talent to fill a specific need that free agency cannot provide.

If the player lacks any one of the five- they are simply not worth an early round pick. If this is the case, I’m in favor of trading down- much like the Ravens and Patriots always seem to do. A lot of teams seem to simply pick guys based on “okay, it’s our turn to pick, lets pick someone and see if what happens…” To me, teams should draft guys that will work to fill an immediate need (or a value pick based on NFL potential) rather than “he’s the best player on our board.”

Chris’ Top Quarterback Prospects (NFL Draft Rankings By Position)

Robert Griffin (Baylor)- While Luck may be the most “NFL ready,” Griffin has the bigger upside. I argue that Griffin had far LESS talent around him at Baylor and significantly outperformed Luck. Griffin also played better against tougher defenses. The thing that worries me about Griffin is that he was TERRIBLE against the blitz on down 3rd down and more than 5yards. Luck also posted better stats in the redzone (and generally seemed more comfortable). I have loved Griffin since his freshman year when, he and he alone, would keep Baylor in big games against powerhouse Big12 teams- Texas, Oklahoma. Remember how terrible Baylor was? For a decade, they were the biggest joke of ANY college football team in a major conference. Griffin, while of the mold of Michael Vick, is not as reckless and is more coachable. After watching Griffin for 3 years and Luck for 3 years- I would take Griffin since I feel he is special.
Overall 93, Ceiling 97

Andrew Luck (Stanford)- I haven’t believed the hype on Luck for a while now. Admittedly, all the hype has made me even more skeptical of Luck more than I should. He is very good. ESPN tried their best to award Luck (and Trent Richardson) the Heisman the entire year but the production and big game wins just were not there. Typically, Luck got none of the blame and all f the credit. Clearly, Jim Harbaugh makes QBs (see: Alex Smith) look better than they really are. For as “untalented” Stanford surrounding cast, in reality the Cardinal may produce 3 other FIRST ROUND picks (David DeCastro [G], Coby Fleener [TE], Jonathan Martin [T]). The argument that Luck had far less talent around him [than Griffin] is complete garbage. Luck also played significantly weak defenses. At best, throwing mechanics aside, I see Andrew Luck developing into a more athletic version of Philip Rivers or Drew Bledsoe- Luck warrants a top-10 pick for a team looking for a QB and could have a better career if he is surrounded with more talent than Robert Griffin III.
Overall 92, Ceiling 94

Kellen Moore (Boise State)-
Living in both Los Angeles and Boise, I’ve had the chance to watch Kellen Moore play and compare his game to what I saw from Chris Leak, Tim Tebow, Brian Waggener and John Brantley at Florida. Kellen is far above them all in terms of football IQ and accuracy. “Accuracy,” is often misunderstood by the average fan. Accuracy is simply the ability to understand, apply and perfect “timing” with your receivers. Leak, Tebow, Wagener and Brantley can all hit targets, moving targets not in traffic and open receivers (yes, even Tim Tebow). However, how accurate they appear in game situations is quite different. Accuracy is often a product of football IQ and ability to learn rather than raw skill. “Timing” is also a product of applying a week’s worth of repetitions on Sunday. Needless to say, I believe Kellen has a football IQ above all these guys and probably above Robert Griffin III and possibly higher than Andrew Luck. Kellen is my sleeper of this class. This is predicated on opportunity however and joining a quality franchise that can recognize and apply his ability. This is not unlike what the Patriots have done with Tom Brady. Not unlike Brady, Kellen Moore has been highly successful with whomever he has had to throw to. If I were an NFL GM of a team that already had an established top-tier QB I would trade down slightly and draft Moore in the middle of the 2nd round (and NO LATER). I believe Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck should be drafted ahead of Kellen Moore because desperate franchises need an NFL-ready QB to fill the seats. At the same time, I feel the ceiling for Moore is just as high, if not higher than Griffin and Luck. His NFL success will largely depend on opportunity however. Moore is a winner, 49-3 at Boise. Southpaw quarterback that will need at least a year of practice with the 1st team to establish his timing.
Overall 88, Ceiling 98.

Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)- I actually like Weeden a lot but I have been wrong on the older baseball prospects in most cases. I regard Weeden to be along the lines of Chris Weinke who was sensational at Florida State. Given the general lack of success for Weinke and Weeden playing in the Big XII (which is weaker defensively than the ACC in the late 90′s), I have to drop Weeden to no higher than a 4th round pick and unfortunately project him to be simply a backup at best. Perhaps unfair to Weeden, I’m just not buying QBs that play at Big XII powerhouses anymore (note: Baylor/Robert Griffin IS NOT a Big XII powerhouse). Zac Robinson looked like a Heisman candidate just a few years ago at Oklahoma State, but won’t be much of an NFL QB. I believe Weeden’s football IQ is higher than Robinson’s and probably pretty close to Andrew Luck’s. I’ll root for Weeden but I can’t think he’ll be a long-term starting in the NFL. The drop off from Kellen Moore to Brandon Weeden is significant in my opinion.
Overall 79, Ceiling 83.

Russell Wilson (Wisconsin)- Rarely am I impressed with a prospect (especially at QB) when I feel his collegiate team underachieved. Considering Russell Wilson’s ability to learn an entirely new offensive in about a month (he transferred from NC State to Wisconsin), adapt to defenses he’s never seen, be quite successful, be a LEADER on a new team and his interviews- I really like Russell Wilson. He’s a first round pick if he’s not 5-10.5. Of the remaining college prospects that can fight an uphill battle and be successful, I pick Wilson to do so. Like Kellen Moore, his success may be a product of opportunity and coaching from a QUALITY NFL franchise. I list him slightly below Brandon Weeden because Wilson is not as polished as Weeden as of the 2012 NFL Draft. If I were an NFL GM, with an established (not necessarily top-tier starter), I would not hesitate to draft Russell Wilson in the 4th Round. If Andrew Luck’s “ceiling” is 92 and Andrew Luck is Drew Bledsoe, I believe Russell Wilson can be almost equally as productive if he pans out.
Overall 76.5, Ceiling 88

The following college prospects deserve some consideration as late round picks
Ryan Tannehill- Seems to be developing some skills, lets not go overboard. He isn’t much different than Stephen McGee, a former Aggie that didn’t win in the big games.
Kirk Cousins- Just another in a long line of average Michigan State QBs.
Ryan Lindley- I honestly don’t know much about him, other than the guys in the next list are worse. There is no reason to reach for Lindley however.
Jacory Harris- I don’t think Jacory is a potential starter, but he’s decent backup, tall at 6-4.
Darron Thomas- Dennis Dixon. Not as good as Josh Johnson.

The following college prospects deserve absolutely no consideration as late round picks
Brock Osweiler- Wasn’t good in college vs. weak Pac-10/12, inexperienced, dorky, has an attitude. Like Joe Flacco but even worse. Wouldn’t even dominate if he stayed another year.
Nick Foles- Hyped up too much, not his fault. Even still- never did anything significant against a weak Pac-10/12.
Case Keenum- I don’t disqualify guys on arm strength usually, but Keenum has a really weak arm and not much else. Keenum is a winner though and could make an okay backup if he develops.
Aaron Corp- California sissy boy. Talked into coming to USC by sleazy Pete Carroll, should have gone elsewhere to develop.
John Brantley- Awful. Just terrible
Jordan Jefferson/Jarrett Lee- These guys make JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn look like Warren Moon and Joe Montana. Nothing more to say.
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