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Old 04-22-2012, 03:30 PM    (permalink
papageorgio
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Originally Posted by indyfan1985 View Post
Do you know who he had at WR to work with? That may have played into him not going deep as much as RG3 just FYI.
Atleast half of Lucks touchdowns came from check downs to his tight ends and running backs.

When you watch him play you never get the feeling of WOW Thats an NFL throw.

Luck is average when it comes to everything.

Newton has the wow factor so does RG3.

Even Tannehill can occasionally give you that.
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Old 04-22-2012, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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Andrew Luck threw a lot to TEs & RBs in an offense that often featured 3 TE and 2 RB sets?
You don't say.


I agree that Griffin isn't as complete a prospect as some people would like to think, but his still easily the #2 pick and a great QB. Can anyone explain to me how Newton's success connects to Griffin's potential? I see them at totally different prospects is a ton of ways.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
Andrew Luck threw a lot to TEs & RBs in an offense that often featured 3 TE and 2 RB sets?
You don't say.


I agree that Griffin isn't as complete a prospect as some people would like to think, but his still easily the #2 pick and a great QB. Can anyone explain to me how Newton's success connects to Griffin's potential? I see them at totally different prospects is a ton of ways.
show me one NFL caliber throw by Luck. This guy doesn't have the arm strength to succeed in the NFL.

He floats all his passes and will get picked off every time in the NFL.

Luck will never have more than 20TD in a season.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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Why do some have Donatari Poe as a bust? I think he's going to come in and make an immediate impact, positively, as a run stuffer in teh 4-3 or 3-4 defense.

Mine:
- Coples
- Gilmore (He was awful his Jr year, he just had a good off-season)
- Zach Brown
- Luke Keuchly (will be drafted higher than he should be. He's compared to Laurenitis/Ruud. Makes too many tackles down the field instead of at the LOS).
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:29 PM    (permalink
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Why do some have Donatari Poe as a bust? I think he's going to come in and make an immediate impact, positively, as a run stuffer in teh 4-3 or 3-4 defense.

Mine:
- Coples
- Gilmore (He was awful his Jr year, he just had a good off-season)
- Zach Brown
- Luke Keuchly (will be drafted higher than he should be. He's compared to Laurenitis/Ruud. Makes too many tackles down the field instead of at the LOS).
Keuchly has never been regarded as a premier run stopper. It's his ability to drop into space and man up on tight ends that has scouts so enamored because the rapidly changing dynamic of league offenses. BC didn't exactly have a stout defensive line to keep blockers off of him either. He's involved in every play and that's what you like to see out of backers. He may have made a lot of tackles past the line but he still topped 10 TFL each year, mostly because his instincts and timing, and he can get outside and bring down backs behind the line of tosses and sweeps.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:32 PM    (permalink
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This thread will look very differently once we know where guys go. Where guys end up landing is such a huge part of player development that this makes this thread pretty pointless until after the draft.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:47 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by papageorgio View Post
show me one NFL caliber throw by Luck. This guy doesn't have the arm strength to succeed in the NFL.

He floats all his passes and will get picked off every time in the NFL.

Luck will never have more than 20TD in a season.
They don't make trolls like they used to.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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That is exactly the reason I put Andrew Luck on this list. Luck is a very good QB, the very same way that Tim Couch was a very good QB. Both were consensus #1 overall picks without dispute.

The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl. For all intents and purposes, let's focus only on the offense. You have 1 WR in Reggie Wayne who is now past his prime. Then you have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that have both benefited greatly from having Peyton throwing balls to them. At tight end, they are currently listing Dallas Clarke as the 3rd TE on the team. They have no weapons there. Joseph Addai is shopping his options in free agency. They have no running game. Donald Brown really hasn't lived up to his 1st round hype. And last, but not least, the offensive line. Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are aging veterans. Quinn Ojinnaka was signed away by St. Louis, and Jeff Linkenbach is their only remaining OT. They are in a very very bad way.

This is a no-win situation for Luck. And his career may be doomed just based on the talent around him being so bad.
So many mistakes here, Im not sure if you´re serious..
Pierre Garcon signed for big $$ with the Redskins. Dallas Clark was cut, and is currently a free agent. Jeff Saturday signed with the Packers. Ryan Diem retired. They drafted Anthony Castonzo and Ben Iljana for the OT spots in round 1 and 2 last year.
At least get your facts straight.

As far as the "Indy is not 1 QB away from going to a Super Bowl" statement, thats just extremely shortsighted. Show me one team in the history of the NFL who had the first pick in the draft who is just a QB away from going all the way...?
Luck may be in for a rough start in Indy, given how much the roster is in shambles atm, but it is way to early to predict that Irsay, Grigson and Pagano wont be able to supply Luck with sufficient weapons, so that he can have a succesfull career in the long run.
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Old 04-22-2012, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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Dontari Poe
Kendall Wright
Stephen Hill
Fletcher Cox
Coby Fleener

I think people who are predicting RGIII and Luck to bust are just trying to stir things up...JMO.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:04 PM    (permalink
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So many mistakes here, Im not sure if you´re serious..
Pierre Garcon signed for big $$ with the Redskins. Dallas Clark was cut, and is currently a free agent. Jeff Saturday signed with the Packers. Ryan Diem retired. They drafted Anthony Castonzo and Ben Iljana for the OT spots in round 1 and 2 last year.
At least get your facts straight.

As far as the "Indy is not 1 QB away from going to a Super Bowl" statement, thats just extremely shortsighted. Show me one team in the history of the NFL who had the first pick in the draft who is just a QB away from going all the way...?
Luck may be in for a rough start in Indy, given how much the roster is in shambles atm, but it is way to early to predict that Irsay, Grigson and Pagano wont be able to supply Luck with sufficient weapons, so that he can have a succesfull career in the long run.
All good points, no doubt. I'll admit, I went onto ESPN's website and looked up their roster this morning. I wasn't impressed. I don't think many would be, even with the differences you pointed out. The fact that they are without a TE and still have serious depth problems @ WR only make my point for me.

Let me say this: I'm not doubting Andrew Luck as a good QB prospect. He's the best one to come out in ages. But that same thing is what makes me leery about his future. He's being placed in such a precarious position, success is really unlikely.

There are a lot of teams that try to do that very thing. The Lions come to mind with Joey Harrington. Tim Couch and the Browns. Usually the results of which are mix and match. You can't guarantee that the guys you get to put around him are going to be worth a darn either. Sometimes it's more-less bad drafting or bad Luck that causes players to be busts.

We can go through the list of top QB prospects who fell victim to the same thing. But we all know the stories of Rick Mirer and David Klingler and so on and so forth.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:20 PM    (permalink
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That is exactly the reason I put Andrew Luck on this list. Luck is a very good QB, the very same way that Tim Couch was a very good QB. Both were consensus #1 overall picks without dispute.

The situation is what I think condemns Andrew Luck.
Indianapolis is not a team that's 1 QB away from going back to the Superbowl. For all intents and purposes, let's focus only on the offense. You have 1 WR in Reggie Wayne who is now past his prime. Then you have Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon that have both benefited greatly from having Peyton throwing balls to them. At tight end, they are currently listing Dallas Clarke as the 3rd TE on the team. They have no weapons there. Joseph Addai is shopping his options in free agency. They have no running game. Donald Brown really hasn't lived up to his 1st round hype. And last, but not least, the offensive line. Jeff Saturday and Ryan Diem are aging veterans. Quinn Ojinnaka was signed away by St. Louis, and Jeff Linkenbach is their only remaining OT. They are in a very very bad way.

This is a no-win situation for Luck. And his career may be doomed just based on the talent around him being so bad.
Tim Couch was also the first D-1 QB to play in a Mike Leach offense. He fooled the crap out of everybody at the time, because he was the #1 recruit coming out of HS and he put up monster numbers. In hindsight, though, it's pretty obvious that he wasn't an elite prospect. These days, scouts would tear him apart.

I think that people overestimate the extent to which situation influences QB success. Good quarterbacks can change plays, check-down, sell the play-action, step up in the pocket, get the ball out sooner, and do a myriad of other things to minimize the effects of a bad situation.

Pre-snap reads and pocket presence go a long way toward separating Brett Favre from JP Losman, and Peyton Manning from David Carr. These are also skills that are almost impossible to quantify, and difficult to translate from the NCAA to the NFL based on film study.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:36 PM    (permalink
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I think that people overestimate the extent to which situation influences QB success. Good quarterbacks can change plays, check-down, sell the play-action, step up in the pocket, get the ball out sooner, and do a myriad of other things to minimize the effects of a bad situation.
Well, this is where we part opinions. All of that sounds just fine in theory, but does it happen that way in the NFL? A rookie is a rookie, and no matter what, he's going to take his lumps. People know that, so they'll have leniency with him. But another thing to keep in mind here is that Luck isn't going to be the only rookie on that offense. There's a new coaching staff for the Colts, and it's going to be a transitional time for even the veterans.

I've seen really good QB's be victim to circumstance. And it's a shame. But with the position comes the heavy weight of responsibility for the teams success. And if they can't be successful in 3-4 years, then he's the guy that will be taking the heat.

Everyone's talking about this kid like he's the 2nd coming of Christ, and for pretty understandable reasons. He's an amazing QB prospect. But all that build-up and heightened expectation is a recipe for disaster; as we've seen before.

By the way, I also wanted to take a second and point out something. You also said that "Scouts today would have torn him (Couch) apart." I disagree. There's nothing new under the sun, and scouts have not changed their routine in quite some time. The combine has been a rigorous evaluation process for better than 20 years. They still get fooled every single year. They still miss highly talented players every year. They do a difficult job as well as humanly possible. But certain things, in your words, can't be quantified. Jerry Glanville said once upon a time, "If a guy comes into this league and fails, it's probably because he's scared." And you just can't know if a guy is going to get to that next level, take a monster hit in his first game, lose his confidence, and play scared for the rest of his career.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:40 PM    (permalink
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Busts huh...


Well glad to see the Dontari Poe love. Maybe he will turn out but if he gets drafted high, it is just on his combine numbers, not his ability or production on the field...Usually one without the other does not really mix.

Justin Blackmon kind of comes to mind, he will be good but not sure he will be top 3 receivers in the NFL. No way I would ever take him over Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, there is just no way. People who think he is that good are fooling themselves.

Ryan Broyles, hopefully he comes back strong from injury and is the same player, but only time will tell. I hope he does, but if he loses a step or loses some of his aggressiveness he could have issues.


Vontaze Burfict, if he continues on his epic collapse. I mean seriously a year from now who did not like him prospect wise. Talented, tough, aggressive, big hitter. But that 40 time is awful and those character issues. Still this he has ability and could be a 3rd or 4th round pick as a 3/4 ILB, we will see. But wow has he really dropped in so many peoples eyes and he has not even played a game yet in the NFL.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:46 PM    (permalink
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I think there's an argument to be made that the perfect storm came together for Peyton Manning after he was drafted to allow him to become the QB we see today ... or saw two years ago, anyway. I don't think Luck busts based on scouts being wrong, but he might never maximize his talent if the Colts can't once again build a franchise that allows him to succeed. Still, I think that has him ending up as Archie Manning (great player with poor surrounding talent) rather than Peyton. I would not characterize that as being a bust though others might.
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Old 04-22-2012, 05:49 PM    (permalink
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I think there's an argument to be made that the perfect storm came together for Peyton Manning after he was drafted to allow him to become the QB we see today ... or saw two years ago, anyway. I don't think Luck busts based on scouts being wrong, but he might never maximize his talent if the Colts can't once again build a franchise that allows him to succeed. Still, I think that has him ending up as Archie Manning (great player with poor surrounding talent) rather than Peyton. I would not characterize that as being a bust though others might.
Yeah, more to my point. I'm not saying he's been improperly scouted. I'm saying he'll be a bust simply as a victim of circumstance.
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Old 04-22-2012, 06:14 PM    (permalink
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http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/...ad.php?t=49390

I had Griffin going 2nd in November...
Respect, I wonder how Vidae feels about that pick now, lol

I wonder who Scott's picks are for this years draft busts. The busts are the best part of the draft. Akili Smith, Tim Couch... hearing some of those names make me crack a smile.

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Old 04-22-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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No list is complete without Dontari Poe!
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Old 04-22-2012, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Old 04-22-2012, 07:08 PM    (permalink
tmljeh19
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Originally Posted by Fred Savage View Post
RGIII- Think he is way overvalued. Played in the Big 12. Was a late first round pick until he put up amazing combine numbers, then all of a sudden he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. The Washington organization has been a sewer for decades.
This post is so full of fail it's comical. He was a late first round pick mid to late LAST season. He was easily a top ten pick when he went off this season. By the time he won the Heisman he was already the second best QB in the draft. AFTER the combine people began to question if Luck was really the top QB talent in the draft. And what does Washington's past 10 yeas have to do with his future success. Since they only won one playoff game it automatically means he will bust? Some of the most idiotic logic on this board I've ever seen and that's really hard to top.
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Old 04-22-2012, 10:55 PM    (permalink
WCH
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Griffin started getting a lot of hype around here at the end of September, when he had thrown more TDs than incompletions through his first three or four games. Due to his mobility, frame, and deep ball accuracy, a popular comparison was Aaron Rodgers (you know, before the media and the trolls showed up with their "black players can only be compared to other black players" habits...then suddenly Cam Newton became the money comparison). By October, the consensus top QBs were Luck, followed by Barkley and Griffin. By the end of the season, Griffin was a Top-10 lock to anybody who was paying attention. The big questions were: will Griffin come out; will Barkley come out; and if they both declare, who is the #2 QB?

Even if he had been a "fast riser" after the season, I think it's a stretch to attribute that to the combine. I suspect that the vast majority of the time, when a player is "rising up the draft boards" it really just means that the media is catching up after scouting evaluations start to leak to the press. It's not like professional talent evaluators just said "Wow, you know that Baylor QB that we already knew was a world class athlete? He went to the combine and proved that he's a world class athlete. Move him up to #2, ASAP!" Griffin's combine numbers weren't really unexpected.

RGIII might bust, but it won't be a case of a players stock skyrocketing after a strong post-season showing.

Last edited by WCH : 04-22-2012 at 11:03 PM.
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Old 04-22-2012, 11:02 PM    (permalink
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The draft mags pretty much list Poe as Boom or Bust. Something about a 350-ounder who's "athletic" raises doubts by definition.
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Old 04-23-2012, 02:14 AM    (permalink
Master Exploder
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The draft mags pretty much list Poe as Boom or Bust. Something about a 350-ounder who's "athletic" raises doubts by definition.
I don't think it's the athleticism that raises doubts, more-so that he's huge and insanely athletic, yet didn't produce like someone with that talent should have even facing competition that isn't regarded as highly as other divisions in college.
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Old 04-23-2012, 06:26 AM    (permalink
SolidGold
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Griffin started getting a lot of hype around here at the end of September, when he had thrown more TDs than incompletions through his first three or four games. Due to his mobility, frame, and deep ball accuracy, a popular comparison was Aaron Rodgers (you know, before the media and the trolls showed up with their "black players can only be compared to other black players" habits...then suddenly Cam Newton became the money comparison). By October, the consensus top QBs were Luck, followed by Barkley and Griffin. By the end of the season, Griffin was a Top-10 lock to anybody who was paying attention. The big questions were: will Griffin come out; will Barkley come out; and if they both declare, who is the #2 QB?

Even if he had been a "fast riser" after the season, I think it's a stretch to attribute that to the combine. I suspect that the vast majority of the time, when a player is "rising up the draft boards" it really just means that the media is catching up after scouting evaluations start to leak to the press. It's not like professional talent evaluators just said "Wow, you know that Baylor QB that we already knew was a world class athlete? He went to the combine and proved that he's a world class athlete. Move him up to #2, ASAP!" Griffin's combine numbers weren't really unexpected.

RGIII might bust, but it won't be a case of a players stock skyrocketing after a strong post-season showing.
Nice post.

My thoughts on Griffin's rise have a lot to do with the Heisman hype he began receiving early on in the 2011 football season. The TCU team he played might have had a great defense in 2010 but the 2011 version did not, had three new starters in the secondary playing against a seasoned college QB who played in the same system in 2008/2009/2010. ESPN began pushing him as a Heisman candidate (especially Mark May) and by the end of the year ESPN had done it's job getting Griffin ton's of national exposure assisting in the Heisman victory as well as ensuring he was a surefire first round draft pick. He played in a conference that has QB's putting up huge numbers year in and year out and is renowned for not being able to play defense. Griffin became the number 2 QB when Barkley decided to stay for his senior season.

I think Griffin has really been assessed by everyone with blinders on. He is not the same player as Cam Newton (both have totally different physical attributes) - physically imposing and able to make cuts in the open field. Griffin is a straight line track guy that weighs 30-35 lbs less than Newton. Throwing lanes in the Big 12 are alot bigger than the NFL, players are a lot slower in the Big 12 than the NFL etc.

It really seems alot of people think Griffin is just going to transition in the NFL from the Big 12 and not skip a beat.
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Old 04-23-2012, 07:05 AM    (permalink
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Upshaw 100%

Should not even be selected in the first
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Old 04-23-2012, 07:13 AM    (permalink
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This thread will look very differently once we know where guys go. Where guys end up landing is such a huge part of player development that this makes this thread pretty pointless until after the draft.
Nice job +rep. But then again, isn't everything we talk about here pretty pointless? I mean, honestly, who really cares if Michael Floyd's hips are stiff and he lacks initial burst? This is what we do! We postulate and predict.
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