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Old 05-06-2012, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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I don't see the 49ers hate either. They still have the running game, but have added 3 weapons for Smith to throw too. I don't see how that's a negative.

They probably will try to go more pass orientated, but if Smith can't keep up, they just go back to last years offense. If Smith does keep up and gets better with the added weapons, their offense will be really good.

Add that to their elite defense and their poor divison, i see no reason why the 49ers won't with the NFC West.
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:09 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SuperPacker View Post
I don't see the 49ers hate either. They still have the running game, but have added 3 weapons for Smith to throw too. I don't see how that's a negative.


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A basic theory of football is there is the ability to win close football games (with close football game being defined as games where the final margin of victory is 7 points or less) is not an actual ability. Some might define this perceived ability as being “clutch.” But alas, no coach/QB/team hold an ability to consistently win/lose close football games.
That's why. The 49ers were 7-1 in games decided by less than 7 points (close games). Teams have not historically strung together years of winning close games as the chart shows. They're in for a regression next year simply because you absolutely cannot expect the 49ers to do as well this year as they did last year in close games. History says they're going to be worse in that regard.

Sure, you could win more close games. But history says you won't. From 1978-2010 there were 47 teams that won more than 5 "close games". Do you see how many teams matched or exceeded their "close win" total? Three. Three from 1978-2010. Only 24 of those teams even managed to be +1 in close games the following year and the 49ers were +6 this past year.

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The 47 "best in the clutch" teams of the last 32 years were +263 net in close games - but only +15 in the subsequent season. Their won-lost record in one-score games fell in one year from 328-65 (83.5%) to 189-174 (52%). The correlation between their numbers of net close wins over the two seasons was an almost invisible 3%.

Comprehensively, for all 945 teams over the full 32 seasons, the correlation in year-to-year net close wins is 8%. In realistic terms: next to nothing.
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You could win just as many close games next year but I bet you won't.

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Old 05-06-2012, 05:16 PM    (permalink
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That's why. The 49ers were 7-1 in games decided by less than 7 points (close games). Teams have not historically strung together years of winning close games as the chart shows. They're in for a regression next year simply because you absolutely cannot expect the 49ers to do as well this year as they did last year in close games. History says they're going to be worse in that regard.
That's the point. Most just assume regression. It's just as likely there will be an offensive PROGRESSION which could result in less close games.

"Close games" doesn't equate to "lost games" the next year. It could just as easily equate to "won games."
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:20 PM    (permalink
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They were 13-3. Even if they had lost half of those close games they still would have won the division. I don't think they'll match that record, but they should finish over .500, which is often enough to get into the playoffs.
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:21 PM    (permalink
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That's the point. Most just assume regression. It's just as likely there will be an offensive PROGRESSION which could result in less close games.

"Close games" doesn't equate to "lost games" the next year. It could just as easily equate to "won games."
This. This. This.

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Old 05-06-2012, 05:34 PM    (permalink
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That's the point. Most just assume regression. It's just as likely there will be an offensive PROGRESSION which could result in less close games.

"Close games" doesn't equate to "lost games" the next year. It could just as easily equate to "won games."
Do you really think you're going to start blowing teams out because you added Randy Moss (who wasn't in the NFL last year), Mario Manningham (Giants' third wheel), AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James?
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:37 PM    (permalink
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Do you really think you're going to start blowing teams out because you added Randy Moss (who wasn't in the NFL last year), Mario Manningham (Giants' third wheel), AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James?
You really think they're going to get worse by adding 4 legitimate weapons.
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:38 PM    (permalink
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You think Denver wins the AFCW with Manning?

I would maybe put an asterisk next to them because who knows how fragile Manning is at this point. If he gets knocked out they're done.
Then someone has to knock him out first. We can put an asterisk next to any quarterback.
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:44 PM    (permalink
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You really think they're going to get worse by adding 4 legitimate weapons.
Legitimate is being a little kind considering only one of them played a snap in the NFL last year.
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Old 05-06-2012, 05:57 PM    (permalink
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The problem is, it's really really really hard being a consistently good team in the NFL without a qb. It's just like one of the NFL commandments. If you don't have a good qb, it's going to be very hard putting together 2 good seasons in a row. Consistency starts at qb. Without one, you won't be a consistent team.

Ask Raven fans. They always had it all except the qb before Flacco and they rarely ever put together 2 playoff seasons in a row before Flacco.

You need a qb. Alex Smith is not that guy.
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:05 PM    (permalink
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The problem is, it's really really really hard being a consistently good team in the NFL without a qb. It's just like one of the NFL commandments. If you don't have a good qb, it's going to be very hard putting together 2 good seasons in a row. Consistency starts at qb. Without one, you won't be a consistent team.

Ask Raven fans. They always had it all except the qb before Flacco and they rarely ever put together 2 playoff seasons in a row before Flacco.

You need a qb. Alex Smith is not that guy.
I'm not expecting Alex Smith to be Aaron Rodgers, but i don't see why he would regress when they've added 3 good receivers and a great 3rd down running back to his arsenal.

Last year his only receiving threat was Vernon Davis...
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:09 PM    (permalink
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I just don't see how Seattle overtakes SF this year. And I say this as a blatant Seahawks homer, Niner hater and former Bay area resident. The 49ers seriously upgraded their offensive talent, bring all of their defense back and have no lockout to worry about.

All the Seahawks did was make a slight upgrade at QB (which is what most of the rational franchise thinks Flynn is) and add a couple of 3rd down pass rushers(Bruce Irvin, Jason Jones). Just don't see how that makes up for the vast talent level difference even if the 49ers don't have a crazy turnover differential.
I think the world of that defense. I think we could both have Top 5 defenses and thats where I think both teams make their mark in the NFC. And if Flynn is even a 10% improvement over T-Jack, that should be enough for a two game swing in the W/L department. Plus I really like your draft. I hated seeing you guys draft Russell Wilson. Just think that kid is uber talented and will suprise alot of ppl. We're really in for a dogfight for the division. Both games were hard fought last year and I see both teams improving. For both teams, it will come down to the QB position for different reasons. Can Alex take the next step under Jimbaugh? And is Flynn a starter in this league or another stop gap?
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:12 PM    (permalink
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I'm not expecting Alex Smith to be Aaron Rodgers, but i don't see why he would regress when they've added 3 good receivers and a great 3rd down running back to his arsenal.

Last year his only receiving threat was Vernon Davis...
Adding weapons usually means you expect more from the pass game, which means he'll throw more. They won't protect him as much, and I don't see him coming through and delivering for them when that happens.

I could be wrong, but I just don't believe in him.
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Adding weapons usually means you expect more from the pass game, which means he'll throw more. They won't protect him as much, and I don't see him coming through and delivering for them when that happens.

I could be wrong, but I just don't believe in him.
Harbaugh knows he's facing a lot of good passing teams in 2012. Especially on the road. Which is why he is stockpiling more weapons. A lot of folks didn't believe in him last season, and deservedly so, but he did come through usually when it matters. I think he had 7 4th quarter comebacks last season. Maybe it was six. It will be nice to finally have receivers that have proven they can get separation.
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:17 PM    (permalink
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Adding weapons usually means you expect more from the pass game, which means he'll throw more. They won't protect him as much, and I don't see him coming through and delivering for them when that happens.

I could be wrong, but I just don't believe in him.
He'll throw more if he uses the extra talent well. He could respond well to have some decent people to throw too and improve. Then they would have a good passing game and an elite running game.

If giving Alex more throws doesn't work, they can just resort back to last years offense when they ran the ball more. Then when they do go back to the running game, Frank Gore will have more room to run, because of the Randy Moss factor, Manningham and AJ Jenkins.

Either way it's win/win for San Francisco and an improvement on last season.
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:20 PM    (permalink
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Harbaugh knows he's facing a lot of good passing teams in 2012. Especially on the road. Which is why he is stockpiling more weapons. A lot of folks didn't believe in him last season, and deservedly so, but he did come through usually when it matters. I think he had 7 4th quarter comebacks last season. Maybe it was six. It will be nice to finally have receivers that have proven they can get separation.
For the record, I LOVE all the moves made, I just...I don't know man. It's hard for me to commit to Smith. You know? Like as an outsider looking in, it's just hard for me to commit to Smith. That's all.

I think going out and getting 3 WRs is an obvious sign that Harbaugh has given up on Crabtree. Guess we can officially call him a bust...
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:22 PM    (permalink
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That's the point. Most just assume regression. It's just as likely there will be an offensive PROGRESSION which could result in less close games.

"Close games" doesn't equate to "lost games" the next year. It could just as easily equate to "won games."
I guess our offense is going to stay the same.
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:26 PM    (permalink
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For the record, I LOVE all the moves made, I just...I don't know man. It's hard for me to commit to Smith. You know? Like as an outsider looking in, it's just hard for me to commit to Smith. That's all.

I think going out and getting 3 WRs is an obvious sign that Harbaugh has given up on Crabtree. Guess we can officially call him a bust...
I look at last year as Smith's first season under an actual regime that was going about the right way in terms of helping him out. Mike Singletary and Mike Nolan clearly had no idea what they were doing. And the switching of coordinators and lack of talent showed what not to do in developing your quarterback of the future. It's not like Eli Manning who has had the same coordinator his entire pro career.

I don't think many 49ers are committed to Smith long term. I'm not. He has a lot of prove. But that doesn't mean he can't get better under Harbaugh's guidance. We shall see.
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Old 05-06-2012, 06:36 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
For the record, I LOVE all the moves made, I just...I don't know man. It's hard for me to commit to Smith. You know? Like as an outsider looking in, it's just hard for me to commit to Smith. That's all.

I think going out and getting 3 WRs is an obvious sign that Harbaugh has given up on Crabtree. Guess we can officially call him a bust...
They didn't give up on Crabtree, he was just the only WR worth a damn after Morgan got injured. We'd have to revamp the WR corps if Crabtree were on the team or not. Although i wouldn't call him a bust, but Crabs is definitely underwhelming for a top 10 pick, i won't argue that.

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I look at last year as Smith's first season under an actual regime that was going about the right way in terms of helping him out. Mike Singletary and Mike Nolan clearly had no idea what they were doing. And the switching of coordinators and lack of talent showed what not to do in developing your quarterback of the future. It's not like Eli Manning who has had the same coordinator his entire pro career.

I don't think many 49ers are committed to Smith long term. I'm not. He has a lot of prove. But that doesn't mean he can't get better under Harbaugh's guidance. We shall see.
They gave him a 3 year deal that they can easily get out of after this year. No signing bonus and only year 1's salary is guaranteed, they can cut him after this season and owe him nothing. Kaepernick is Harbaugh's hand-picked QB and he's leaving the door open for Kaepernick if Smith can't execute the new offense.

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Old 05-06-2012, 06:36 PM    (permalink
VAfy-ya
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The problem is, it's really really really hard being a consistently good team in the NFL without a qb. It's just like one of the NFL commandments. If you don't have a good qb, it's going to be very hard putting together 2 good seasons in a row. Consistency starts at qb. Without one, you won't be a consistent team.

Ask Raven fans. They always had it all except the qb before Flacco and they rarely ever put together 2 playoff seasons in a row before Flacco.

You need a qb. Alex Smith is not that guy.
So you actually believe Alex will be worst than he was last year? A year under his belt in the system. A actually off-season with the playbook and the coaches to work on the scheme. Improvements on the outside. You think he will just regress and become "old Alex" again? I guess it could happen but I see no reason to believe it will happen. And I'm going to need more than "because its Alex Smith " to convince me otherwise. He doesn't need to be Brees or Brady to take this team where we want to go. All he needs to do is keep improving and we'll be fine.
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Old 05-06-2012, 07:56 PM    (permalink
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And most importantly...

Explosive plays in the passing game is NOT the same as passing the ball alot more.

Harbaugh wants more scoring opportunities to be generated from the passing game. He doesn't want to throw the ball more to score. He wants to score more when he throws.

The 49ers whom were 2 fumbles for, a fumble blown dead, and OT away from the Super Bowl and they essentially...

Replaced

Brett Swain with Mario Manningham.
Joe Hastings with Randy Moss.
Added A.J. Jenkins.
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Old 05-06-2012, 11:45 PM    (permalink
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And most importantly...

Explosive plays in the passing game is NOT the same as passing the ball alot more.

Harbaugh wants more scoring opportunities to be generated from the passing game. He doesn't want to throw the ball more to score. He wants to score more when he throws.

The 49ers whom were 2 fumbles for, a fumble blown dead, and OT away from the Super Bowl and they essentially...

Replaced

Brett Swain with Mario Manningham.
Joe Hastings with Randy Moss.
Added A.J. Jenkins.
The 49ers have a harder schedule in 2012. That is the biggest obstacle really. I'd be shocked if the offense didn't at least look like it did last year. Honestly with everything that has happened in the offseason (staff remained intact, better weapons added) I only expect improvement.
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Old 05-07-2012, 12:13 AM    (permalink
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the 49er will certainly regress they aren't a 13-3 team, but they should still walk away with the NFC West fairly easily unless one of the other QBs in the division plays at an semi elite level
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Old 05-07-2012, 01:05 AM    (permalink
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the 49er will certainly regress they aren't a 13-3 team, but they should still walk away with the NFC West fairly easily unless one of the other QBs in the division plays at an semi elite level
I dunno about that. they went 7-9 with Tavaris Jackson. Now they've boosted their pass rush, gotten a good backup to keep beastmode fresh, the OL has a year more of chemistry together and they have the combo of Flynn and Wilson instead of TJ and Clipboard jesus. Seeing Seattle get to 9 or 10 wins wouldn't shock me and seeing the 9ers fall to 9-11 wins wouldn't shock me either.
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Old 05-07-2012, 02:00 AM    (permalink
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I see no reason why the 49ers shouldn't get a first round bye again this year.
There is still no competition in that division the closest one is the Rams unless Skelton or Kolb make major improvments or if Flynn actually lives to the hype (hint: he won't) the other divisions are going to beat the crap out of each other. I think the league may have figured out the Packers a little. The Eagles have the Giants to contend with and the South is anyone's division TBH.
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