Quantum Werewolf BETA GAME THREAD - Page 3

Brothgar · 07-05-2012, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broth223

I would like to reiterate what I said in the first post I did forget to multiply by 100 to create percentages so if you have .xyz the actual percentage is xy.z%

**** Math fail fixed

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by broth223

**** Math fail fixed

I actually figured it was that haha. My percentage was pretty much non existent.

Brothgar · 07-05-2012, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

Damn it broth! I want to do some wizard math for everyone!

If your theory is what I think it is. You could ideally pose such a theory in the form of fractions.

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 12:49 PM

Alright, based on my #s, my odds of being:

A Seer: 1 in 12 (about)

Werewolf: 4 in 12

Those are the "normal" percentages for a mafia game. A quarter of the players are mafia and in a game this small, 1 would be a cop/seer.

Makes me think I am on the "normal" curve that most people are on.

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 12:53 PM

I certainly do not have a 1 in 3 chance of being a werewolf though. My number is a good deal lower than that and my seer number is slightly higher. I think you assumed too much sir.

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

I certainly do not have a 1 in 3 chance of being a werewolf though. My number is a good deal lower than that and my seer number is slightly higher. I think you assumed too much sir.

1 in 4 chance, I did the math wrong.

It is actually:

3 in 12 for werewolf

1 in 12 for seer

Do that math, should be your percentages. It would easier if I could just post the percentages :P

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

1 in 4 chance, I did the math wrong.

It is actually:

3 in 12 for werewolf

1 in 12 for seer

Do that math, should be your percentages. It would easier if I could just post the percentages :P

Well it would since you are essentially just doing that. Are you so sure we all have the same percentages though?

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

Well it would since you are essentially just doing that. Are you so sure we all have the same percentages though?

My thought is that we do, or at least pretty close. Perhaps broth made like 1 person more likely as a seer and 1 more likely as a werewolf, but I can't imagine it is TOO different or the numbers would be a lot more crazy than mine are.

Do you still claim your numbers are different than mine?

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

My thought is that we do, or at least pretty close. Perhaps broth made like 1 person more likely as a seer and 1 more likely as a werewolf, but I can't imagine it is TOO different or the numbers would be a lot more crazy than mine are.

Do you still claim your numbers are different than mine?

Well I wasn't going to claim but **** it. 1 in 6 for both.

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

Well I wasn't going to claim but **** it. 1 in 6 for both.

Hmmm, I don't see why you'd exactly admit that.

Unvote: No Lynch

Vote: Gonzo

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 01:05 PM

You are now going to be killed by werewolves tonight or be one yourself. If you have more a chance at a Seer, why admit that at this point? Something doesn't add up. I'd rather kill you BEFORE the Seer is "chosen" than have you be the Seer and die.

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 01:06 PM

That is what I found so funny about you numbers. Now that you clarified it makes more sense. I think you are average just going off my numbers and yours. It would seem that some people have a slightly higher chance of being werewolf and lower of being seer than you. Probably one or two people like myself as well.

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

You are now going to be killed by werewolves tonight or be one yourself. If you have more a chance at a Seer, why admit that at this point? Something doesn't add up. I'd rather kill you BEFORE the Seer is "chosen" than have you be the Seer and die.

Well like I said I am not the only one with these high numbers. If I had to guess there are three groups and you are in the middle. Or I could be lying. Either way I think there has to be a twist of some sort. It would make no sense to set it up so that nobody will be talking expect to say I am not a seer and I am not a werewolf.

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

Well like I said I am not the only one with these high numbers. If I had to guess there are three groups and you are in the middle. Or I could be lying. Either way I think there has to be a twist of some sort. It would make no sense to set it up so that nobody will be talking expect to say I am not a seer and I am not a werewolf.

What do you mean? Either way, you are dead. Today or Tonight. I don't know why anyone would pick anyone except you at this point to try and kill.

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane P. Hallam

What do you mean? Either way, you are dead. Today or Tonight. I don't know why anyone would pick anyone except you at this point to try and kill.

If this game were set up simply based on percentages but set up so that there are only two roles and only one person who gets to be seer what do you expect the conversation during the day to look like? There would not be any conversation. Nobody would say anything. This is why I think there are a bunch of twists (I played in Broths last game and there were a ton).

For one it does not make sense to take me out based on the fact that I have a better chance of being a seer than you. 1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight. If I am targeted by everyone like you say that means the chance of everyone but me dying goes to zero. So why take me out now? I have a feeling you are lying about something.

Cigaro · 07-05-2012, 01:20 PM

I still don't really know how this game is going to work out, which is why I'm still going RR. Normally I prefer no lynch, but the RR in this game really will help everyone(minus the loser) figure out how this game is setup.

Gay Ork Wang · 07-05-2012, 01:21 PM

Unlynch, Vote Gonzo

1 in 6 is higher than the usual

Cigaro · 07-05-2012, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

Unlynch, Vote Gonzo

1 in 6 is higher than the usual

?????

Higher for seer, lower for werewolf...

Gay Ork Wang · 07-05-2012, 01:23 PM

yes higher for seer. he said:
"1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight."

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

yes higher for seer. he said:
"1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight."

It's one in 6 bud. To me that is a very low chance.

Brothgar · 07-05-2012, 01:26 PM

Vote Count:
RR: (6) Gonzo, Ngata, CJ, SBH, Cigaro, IBC
Gonzo:(3) Snicho, Renji Shane
IBC: (1) Fenikz

With 12 people alive 7 people are needed to reach majority

Gay Ork Wang · 07-05-2012, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

It's one in 6 bud. To me that is a very low chance.

its pretty high compared to the normal amount

Dr. Gonzo · 07-05-2012, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by *** Ork Wang

its pretty high compared to the normal amount

What is the normal amount. Shane's? Are we sure on that?

Right now you are trying to take away a target for the werewolves. How does that makes sense? Ya good call, make it easier for them.

Gay Ork Wang · 07-05-2012, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

What is the normal amount. Shane's? Are we sure on that?

Right now you are trying to take away a target for the werewolves. How does that makes sense? Ya good call, make it easier for them.

i think you are lying. no reason to come out and say you have a higher chance to be a seer.

Shane P. Hallam · 07-05-2012, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr. Gonzo

If this game were set up simply based on percentages but set up so that there are only two roles and only one person who gets to be seer what do you expect the conversation during the day to look like? There would not be any conversation. Nobody would say anything. This is why I think there are a bunch of twists (I played in Broths last game and there were a ton).

For one it does not make sense to take me out based on the fact that I have a better chance of being a seer than you. 1 in 6 means there is an extremely low chance I become seer tonight. If I am targeted by everyone like you say that means the chance of everyone but me dying goes to zero. So why take me out now? I have a feeling you are lying about something.

There are some Mafia games with NO night powers. The day conversation would be based on people's perceptions.